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Transcript of Notes on European Economy, Turkey and Istanbul Notes on European Economy, Turkey and Istanbul Prof....
Notes on European Economy, Notes on European Economy, Turkey and IstanbulTurkey and Istanbul
Prof. Dr. Murat Yulek
Istanbul Chamber of Commerce
25 November, 2011Istanbul
Organization
European economyTurkey: some economic highlightsRapidly developing infrastructureSome notes on Istanbul
Comparison of Consolidated Euro Area, U.S. and Japanese Banking Sectors
Source: Interim Report on Cumulative Impact on the Global Economy of Proposed Changes in the Banking Regulatory
Euro Area USA Japan
Number of banks 6,458 6,839 148
Total assets (trillion euro) 31.1 11.8 8.5
Assets / GDP (%) 346.6 121.1 168.8
Regulatory capital 12.5 14.2 9.6
Tier 1 capital 9.4 11.4 6.8
Liquid asset ratio 5.9 19.3 16
Share of banks in credit intermediation
73.8 23.6 52.6
Population (million) 501.1 310.6 127.1
European Tribulations: Bank Recap Needs
Country Capital shortfall (€bn) Number of banks failing the test
Total number of banks participating in the
stress test
France 16 4 4
Germany 6 4 12
Greece 14 6 6
Italy 23 5 5
Spain 41 17 25
UK 0 0 4
Other EU Countries 22 19 38
Total 122 55 90
Source: AXA-IM Research
European Tribulations: Sovereign Debt & Default Risks
Inc
rea
sin
g R
isk
Pe
rce
ptio
ns
Flig
ht to
Qu
ality
Source: IMF WEO * Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain
Projections
European Tribulations: Budgetary Imbalance
billion euro
Budget Deficit Sovereign Debt
2000 2010 2016 2000 2010 2016
France -21 -151 -38 826 1640 2110
Germany 27 -82 -1 1232 1999 2140
Spain -6 -98 -59 374 639 981
Italy -10 -71 -54 1300 1843 2226
UK 15 -176 -30 462 1300 1867
European Tribulations: Budgetary Imbalance & Sovereign Debt
Young (and Still Growing) Population
Population (millions)
Median age (years)
Population aged 15-64 (millions)
2010 2050 2010 2050 2010 2050
Turkey 73 92 28.3 42.3 49 59
Germany 82 75 44.3 49.2 54 41
France 63 72 39.9 42.7 41 42
UK 62 73 39.8 42.9 41 43
Italy 61 59 43.2 49.6 40 31
Spain 46 51 40.1 48.9 31 27
Europe 738 719 40.1 45.7 505 412
Source: UN Stat
Young (and Still Growing) Population
2010 2050
Turkey 1.14 0.08
Germany -0.20 -0.34
France 0.51 0.23
UK 0.60 0.15
Italy 0.23 -0.20
Spain 0.62 0.03
Europe 0.11 -0.19
Source: UN Stat
Population Growth Rate (%)
Turkey: The Banking Sector Weathered the Storm Well
Total assets 498
Equity capital 61
Total deposits 291
Total credits 273
Annual credit growth (%) 36
CAR (%) 16.4
Gross NPL (% of total credit portfolio) 2.80
Net NPL (% of total credit portfolio) 0.51
Consolidated Banking Sector (End-September 2011, billion euro)
Source: BRSA
Some Notes on Istanbul*
*Assistance of the Istanbul Development Agency in data and information acjnowledged with thanks.
If the earth were a single state, Istanbul would be its capital. Napoleon Bonaparte
Population (millions,
2010)
Ratio to National Population (%) Area (km²) Population Density (Population/km²)
Istanbul 13 18% 5,313 2,551
Turkey 74 100% 785,347 96
EU (27) 501 680% 4,422,773 113.3
ISTArBUL
15-64 years (2010) 71% of total
Median Age(2010) 30
Permanent foreign residents (officially registered, 2009) 42,228
Actual foreign residents At the order of few hundred thousand
Istanbul: Population Dynamics
Ranking in Europe
Ranking in the World 2025 Estimates 2008 GDP City Country
1 5 4 565 London The UK
2 6 8 564 Paris France
3 15 12 321 Moscow Russia
4 26 32 230 Madrid Spain
5 34 28 182 Istanbul Turkey
6 35 42 177 Barcelona Spain
7 43 53 144 Rome Italy
8 46 65 136 Milan Italy
9 50 67 122 Vienna Austria
10 66 76 98 Lisbon Portugal
Istanbul: 5th Largest European City in Terms of GDP
In PPP terms Istanbul is probably the largest European City.
World Ranking City Country
1 Istanbul Turkey
2 Shenzhen China
3 Lima Peru
4 Singapore Singapore
5 Santiago Chile
6 Shanghai China
7 Guangzhou China
8 Beijing China
9 Manila The Philippines
10 Rio de Janeiro Brazil
Istanbul Economics: Metropolitan Economic Performances After the Financial Depression 2010
Source: Brookings/LSE Global Metro Monitor
Company Sector Net Sales (bn $)
FORD Automotive 3.42
OYAK RENAULT Automotive 3.31
TOFAŞ Automotive 3.11
ARÇELİK Electrical Machinery 2.92
AYGAZ Lpg/Energy 2.27
İÇDAŞ ÇELİK Iron-Steel 2.01
HABAŞ Industrial Medical Gas 1.62
VESTEL Electronics 1.38
MERCEDES-BENZ Automotive 1.27
UNILEVER Consumer Products 1.20
Istanbul Economics: TOP 10 Companies
Istanbul Turkey Istanbul’s Share
Patent Applications 1,370 3,250 42%
Utility Model Applications 1,384 2,994 46%
Brand Name Applications (2009) 30,832 59,838 51%
Industrial Design Applications 3,444 6,567 52%
Istanbul Economics: R&D and Foreign Trade (2010)
billion $Istanbul Turkey Istanbul’s Share
Exports53.17 113.9 47%
Imports98.40 185.5 53%
Business Services 21%
Automotive 15%
IT & Telecommunication 10%
Electrical & Electronics 10%
Machinery & Equipment 9%
Transport & transport Services 9%
Metals 7%
Food 5%
Plastic & Rubber 5%
Other 9%
Istanbul Economics: FDI inflows (2010)
MASS TRANSPORTATION (2009)
# of Vehicles Daily # of Passengers Share %
Land Transportation 1,668,131 vehicles 10,352,000 88.30%
Sea Transportation 314 vessels 380,000 3.30%
Rail Systems 146.5 km rail line 989,548 8.40%
Total 11,721,548 100%
Istanbul : Transportation
AIRPORTS (millions, 2010) Domestic Lines International Lines Total
Atatürk 12 20 32
Sabiha Gökçen 7 4 11
Total 19 24 43
There, God and human, nature and art are together, they have created such a perfect place that it is valuable to see.
Lamartine
Incoming Foreign Tourists (2010)
Congresses and Events (2011, National and International)
Istanbul 7,824,994 416
Turkey 28,632,204 1149
Istanbul’s Share 27% 36%
Istanbul : Tourism
Rank in Europe City Country
1 London The UK
2 Paris France
3 Brussels Belgium
4 Berlin Germany
5 Frankfurt Germany
9 Zurich Switzerland
10 Moscow Russia
11 Istanbul Turkey
12 Munich Germany
13 Milan Italy
Istanbul : 11th in the Europe’s 40 top Cities*
Source: Wealth Report 2010 (Citibank and Knight Frank)
* Based on the following criteria:
• Economic Activity,
• Politica Power,
• Knowledge & Influence,
• Quality of Life
Istanbul : 17th in the Global Cities Endex (2010)
Ranking in
Europe
Ranking in the World Score City Country
1 2 6.22 London The UK
2 4 5.35 Paris France
3 11 3.29 Brussels Belgium
4 16 3.03 Berlin Germany
5 17 3.02 Madrid Spain
15 33 2.33 Munich Germany
16 37 2.23 Copenhagen Denmark
17 41 2.14 Istanbul Turkey
18 42 2.06 Milan Italy
19 44 1.84 Dublin Ireland
Source: A.T. Kearney Global Cities Index
Istanbul : Ranked Top in Real Estate Investment Potential
Source: Urban Land Institute
*performance of existing investments,
OFFICE COSTS IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTERS
Annual Gross Cost (2010, €/m2/year)
Tokyo 1441
London (West End) 1220
Hong Kong 1207
Dubai 899
Mumbai 809
Moscow 768
Milan 667
Istanbul 369
Istanbul : Real Estate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
BEST CITIES IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE OFFICE SPACE (2010)
Rank Score City Country
1 0.63 Berlin Germany
2 0.59 Manchester The UK
3 0.56 Madrid Spain
4 0.54 Birmingham The UK
5 0.53 Barcelona Spain
14 0.32 Dublin Ireland
15 0.32 Istanbul Turkey
16 0.31 Lyon France
17 0.31 Stockholm Sweden
18 0.30 Amsterdam The Netherlands
Istanbul : Real Estate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield