Note of Forum Proceedings

8/3/2019 Note of Forum Proceedings

1/21

INTERNATIONAL KNOWLEDGE SHARING FORUM ON FLOOD MANAGEMENT

Organized by Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board, the Strategic

Committee on Water Resource Management, and the Asian Development Bank

19-20 January 2012

Grand Ballroom, Sukhothai Hotel

NOTE of PROCEEDINGS

The International Knowledge Sharing Forum was well attended by approximately 150

invited persons. Participants were mainly from agencies of the Royal Thai Government,

with some representatives from Thai universities and professional organizations, or fromdiplomatic missions stationed in Bangkok. The Asian Development Bank engaged a few

international speakers to contribute to the event, but its success would not have been

possible without the generous participation of international experts sponsored by the

diplomatic missions in Thailand, including those from Australia, Japan, the Netherlands,

the Republic of Korea and Sweden.

Mr Senga welcomed participants to the Forum, noting the topical and important relevance of the

subject of the forum to the Thai government and Thai people. The forum can be viewed as a step

to promote a process of dialogue to assist the Thai government and Thai people plan for the future

of flood management after the devastating floods in 2011. The process of dialogue on flood

management is relevant not only to Thailand, but to all countries in the South East Asia region,

where 56% of economic damages caused by natural disasters is attributable to water-related

disasters. We all need to proactively develop strategies to reduce the economic damages and

losses caused by natural disasters. ADB has been an active supporter of post-disaster relief and

programs for disaster risk reduction because this is important if we are to protect our hard-earned

economic gains. Every disaster is a setback to development, but if we act to implement risk

reduction strategies we can strike forward rather than having to restart and recover lost ground

after every disaster. It is hoped this forum will provide insight from the shared experience of many

countries in flood risk management.

Mr Senga praised the initiative of the Thai government, the NESDB, the Ministry of Finance and

Deputy Prime Minister Kittirat Na-Ranong for their initiative in supporting the Forum for

International Knowledge Sharing on Flood Management.

09.30 09.40 Welcome Remarks

19 January Mr. Kunio Senga,

Director General, ADB South East Asia Department


2/21

2

International Knowledge Sharing Forum on Flood Management, Bangkok, 19-20 January 2012

The Secretary General said this forum is a Government initiative in collaboration with ADB to

conduct a public platform for dialogue on flood management. It would be the first in a series of

forums on flood and water management planned by NESDB and the Thai government in revision of

flood management planning and development of an action plan for implementation so that the

consequences of any future flooding in the Chao Phraya river basin will not be so severe. The

estimated $50 billion (THB1,500 billion) damages incurred by the 2011 floods the worst floods in

many decades substantially disrupted industrial production, global supply chains, and transport

and logistics, and will depress national economic growth in the near future. Furthermore, there was

a tragic loss of life.

The Secretary General expressed confidence that the Thai economy would rebound. The Thai

government sought to turn crisis into opportunity. Public platforms such as this event enable all to

learn from each others experience and to realize that there is much that we can share and do tohelp each other. Dialogue like this will be an important step towards comprehensive and successful

management of water resources in Thailand. While there is a limit to what humans can do in the

face of natural disasters, it is our duty to do what we can to the best of our abilities. He stressed

the importance of such events by announcing that he would be reporting directly to the Prime

Minister after each days proceedings in this Forum.

Specifically addressing the diplomatic community, the Secretary General underscored that the

objective of the Royal Thai Government is to further enhance international cooperation in disaster

management and recovery and reconstruction. The role of global warming in climate change is a

related challenge that we all share, requiring joint action and cooperation. He thanked the

diplomatic community for its generous support of the event, and thanked ADB for its role in

organizing the Forum.

The 2011 floods were the worst natural disaster in the history of modern Thailand. In terms of

economic damages, it was the 4th worst natural disaster globally (after the 2011 Japanese

earthquake/tsunami, the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005)1. Total damages

are estimated as THB1,400 billion2. Over 4 million households were affected, 1.82 million people

were evacuated, and the official death tally was 693. 12.6 million hectares of farmland were

inundated. Tourism revenue was estimated to be depressed by THB50 billion, but the greatest

economic losses were incurred by the industrial sector. Seven large industrial estates were

inundated, and in all 838 factories.

Annual river basin rainfall was 30% above the annual average. Flooding commenced in northern

Thailand in July, particularly in the Nan river basin one of four northern rivers tributary to the

Chao Phraya upstream of Nakhon Sawan. Rainfall accumulated with a sequence of four tropical

1 International Disaster Database. EM-DAT, Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters - CRED

2 According to recent findings of a rapid assessment by the World Bank and Ministry of Finance.

09.40 09.50 Opening Remarks

19 January Mr. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith,

Secretary General, National Economic and Social Development Board

Member of the Strategic Committee on Water Management

09.50 10.30 Overview of Thailand Flooding 2011

19 January Dr. Apichart Anukulampai

President, Thailand Water Resources Association


3/21

3


storms and one typhoon over following months, and flooding spread more widely and moved

downstream through August and September, reaching the areas just north of Bangkok by the

beginning of October and persisting in the lower basin until December.

The two very large dams in the upper basin Bhumipol and Sirikit, on the Ping and Nan tributaries,

respectively were below 50% of capacity in May, but the volumes in storage increased steadily

as the wet season advanced until both were at full capacity by the beginning of October, and were

subsequently unable to effectively mitigate floods downstream. The Parsakchonlasit Dam, further

downstream in Lopburi Province, was full before the end of September.

Despite diversions by the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) to the east of the river (275 m3/s

capacity) and to the west (500 m3/s capacity) using the existing system of canals and water

regulators, the main dikes along the Chao Phraya River downstream of Nakhon Sawan failed in

about 10 main locations. River levels exceeded dike crest levels from late September through to

the end of October, inundating large areas in the middle basin between Nakhon Sawan and

Ayutthaya. Although there are a chain of pumping stations along the coast and in Bangkok

operated by RID or the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), floodwaters were unable to

drain easily to the coast and were impeded by development around the capital city. Tide levels

were also higher than usual in October and November.

The government response commenced in August, when the Center for Emergency Management in

the Ministry of the Interior was set up for daily operations. As the scale of the disaster became

increasingly evident and massive floodwaters approached Bangkok from the north, establishmentof special working groups and committees commenced with establishment of the Flood Relief

Operations Center (FROC) on October 8 to coordinate relief and response operations. FROC

included representatives from all government ministries, the BangkokMetropolitan Administration

(BMA) and the Thai Army. In November, two high-level strategic committees were initiated to deal

with post-flood recovery and with future water resource management planning. Media coverage of

the flooding was sometimes unhelpful, and contributed to public confusion. In general, people

accustomed to frequent floods failed to understand that this flood event was abnormal. Poor

preparedness was evident: Dr Apichart cited examples of people living life as usual in their homes

located a meter or so below road level with water held back by temporary or reinforced dikes

another 2 meters above road level.

From personal observation, Dr Apichart noted that many canals and drainage channels that are

relied on to convey flows around the central parts of Bangkok were partly blocked or had limitedcapacity due to factors such as inappropriate structural design features, public encroachment or

inadequate maintenance. Elsewhere, roads often obstructed the path of floodwaters. The Kings

Dike that surrounds the central city areas had varying crest elevations, and even gaps where

floodwaters were able to enter the city and emergency measures had to be hastily undertaken.

With regard to structural measures, there is clear scope for improvement. In the upper basin,

deforestation has aggravated flooding, and in the remainder of the river basin wetlands have been

filled and poor land management has allowed development and construction that contributes to

flooding problems.

We can learn good lessons for the future from what happened in 2011. Some of the key lessons

emphasized may be summarized as follows:

y a more proactive planning approach is essential for future floods,

y the diverse roles and responsibilities involved in flood management should be clarified,y improved coordination between the multiple agencies involved is required,

y communications with the public should be disseminated with greater clarity, and from a

centralized source,

y the publics perception of risk needs to be raised, and

y there needs to be better preparedness, not only in communities at risk but also in how

government agencies work together with communities during flood emergencies.


4/21

4


His Excellency began by thanking the international community for their valued support during the

recent months of tribulation. The 2011 floods were a serious economic setback for Thailand, and

growth forecasts for the 2012 year have been cut from 4.5% to a modest 1.5%. It is necessary to

restore domestic and international confidence in Thailand as a place to do business, and this forum

is one step on that path.

At first the DPM was saddened to learn that a master plan for flood management of the Chao Phraya

river basin already existed on paper in a master plan prepared by JICA in 1999, and a similar

proposal from the Crown Property Bureau in 2000. Neither plan was implemented or received

government investment. There were reasons for that in particular the Asian economic crisis

from 1997 left the Thai economy struggling for many years and with other priorities to promote

private investment, cut unemployment and restore the national economy. On the other hand, the

existence of those plans now provides an opportunity, and after updating the Chao Phraya master

plan the Government will invest to implement it.

To undertake urgent short-term measures, THB12.6 billion will be allocated immediately with an

extra THB5.1 billion from the next annual budget. If Thailand wants to be an important part of the

global supply chain, we must change our habits and do more to show that we are acting effectively

to provide security against flood risk. The Government will allocate THB50 billion to set up an

insurance fund to provide up to THB500 billion cover to reassure the manufacturing sector and

counter skepticism on the part of large international reinsurance firms. Over the medium and

longer term the Government intends to invest a further THB350 billion for measures to improve

flood management and restore public infrastructure and private business activity.

As an illustration of the priority the Government attributes to the issue, the new Strategic

Committee on Sustainable Water Management is chaired by the Prime Minister herself, who

attends every meeting.

The DPM emphasized the importance of the medium/longer term program to build for a more secure

future, noting investment in water storages in the upper basin, development of flood detention

areas to relieve downstream flooding, and construction of dikes and flood-walls. The Government

intends to negotiate with farmers in proposed flood detention areas and offer appropriate

compensation, and it will invest in the structural measures required to provide adequate protection

to manufacturing in industrial estates.

The Thai government quickly initiated a rapid assessment of the flood damage and recovery require-

ments, using World Bank assistance to undertake a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) in 26

of 66 affected provinces. The PDNA considers damages to assets, which can be repaired; and

business losses and increased expenditure incurred because of disruption of production. Losses

cannot be recovered. The PDNA involved over 40 government agencies to examine impacts on

infrastructure, production, and social and environmental sectors. GDP in the 2011 year was

11.00 11.30 Keynote Address

19 January H.E. Kittiratt Na-Ranong

Deputy Prime Minister

11.30 12.00 Post Disaster Needs Assessment

19 January Mr. Chakkrit ParapuntakulDirector General, Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance


5/21

5


depressed from 4.0% to 2.9%, and in both private and public sectors THB1,440 billion is needed

for rehabilitation and to become more resilient in the future. An important theme is to build back

better so that Thailand will never be so vulnerable to flood risk again.

The PDNA found that damages incurred were

THB630 billion, and losses will accumulate

over 3 years to THB795 billion. Most of the

damages and losses are in the

manufacturing sector, which represents36.8% of Thai GDP and is a main driver of

Thai exports. After manufacturing, the

housing sector was worst affected, with

1.9 million houses damaged. Damages to

assets in the private sector were about 10

times those for the public sector. The current

account balance will be adversely affected in

2012 as imports for reconstruction increase

and manufacturing capacity (exports) will

still be recovering; but will return to normal

in 2013.

The strategic committee on water management, of which Mr Chakkrit is a leading member, is

considering a multi-faceted approach including enhancing the capacity of the Disaster Damage

Prevention and Management (DDPM) authority, community-based flood risk management

(CBFRM), early warning functions, implementation of an integrated management plan using a

participatory approach, and other initiatives. Funding will be provided to increase the capacity of

drainage and pumping systems, and to reduce the maintenance gap of these and other assets.

More than half of the PDNA recommendations have already been incorporated into the proposed

program and government budgetary provisions.

From December 2010 to April 2011 the Australian state of Queensland suffered a series of major

floods and a severe tropical cyclone Yasi that inundated areas greater than France and Germany

combined. These were the worst floods in Australian history, with damages and losses estimated to

be around $20 billion. Damages were incurred to 9,170 km of main roads and 4,748 km of rail-

ways. 89 bridges and culvert crossings were destroyed. 150,000 buildings were damaged, includ-

ing 411 schools. All 54 of Queenslands coal mining operations, a strategic export industry, were

disabled during the floods. 23 lives were lost in flash floods in south-east Queensland. Widespread

agricultural losses were incurred, with virtually the entire banana crop lost to Cyclone Yasi.

The Queensland Government established the Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) to coordin-

ate and prioritize post-disaster reconstruction of infrastructure and services, assist recovery bydetermining community needs and distributing financial aid, and planning for future flood mitigat-

ion. The budget for reconstruction was $6.8 billion, shared by national (75%) and state (25%)

governments, although this has now been increased to $7.0 billion. A key task of QRA is to direct

funding to relevant state and local government agencies and undertake auditable scrutiny of its

expenditure. In parallel, the Queensland Government commissioned a judicial inquiry to examine

certain aspects of the disaster response and make recommendations to government. The work of

the QRA is based on a 3-phased plan of recovery, reconstruction and transition. The recovery

phase included clearing of debris and making infrastructure operational and safe. This was

completed by mid-2011. The reconstruction phase is currently under way and will be completed by

13.30 14.15 Flood Management and Reconstruction: the Recent Queensland Experience

19 January Major-General Richard Wilson, AO

Chairman, Queensland Reconstruction Authority


6/21

6


the end of 2012 after which there will be a short transition phase as QRA responsibilities are

handed back to standard government agencies.

Working with local governments to assess the damages it soon became apparent that no uniform

assessment approach was being undertaken, making the tasks of valuation and prioritization

difficult. To achieve consistent, accurate results a small hand-held electronic device with camera,

GPS, and software was created and distributed to local authorities. Apart from facilitating compilat-

ion of standardized damages data it also allowed an auditable process to track the progress of

reconstruction and to identify properties where reconstruction was stalled so that appropriateassistance could be offered. In a program named Build Back Blitz, QRA works with private

companies to provide expert reconstruction services and quality materials at discounted rates to

those identified as disadvantaged.

One of the objectives was to eliminate red tape and expedite approval procedures to speed the work

of recovery. In Grantham, a town that was largely destroyed by flash floods in January 2011 and

where residences are being relocated to higher ground, the QRA used its special powers so that

approvals that would normally have required 2 to 3 years were completed in 14 weeks. Land

acquisition, subdivision and provision of essential services are already completed. The first

residents have been re-housed inside 12 months. There are currently $3.6 billion worth of projects

either completed or under way in Queensland, with many more to come.

The interim findings of the judicial inquiry found that the disaster response with respect to dam

operations, flood monitoring, and emergency rescue, evacuation and refuge was adequate, butimprovements are recommended. Improved protection of essential services is required. The final

report of the inquiry is due next month.

Lessons learned are being captured, documented and disseminated with the production of several

reports, and QRA are producing flood mapping products for local governments throughout Queens-

land so that they are able to make better-informed development planning decisions in future.

Building guidelines for flood and cyclone resilience have been circulated, and guidelines for land

and development planning in flood-prone areas have been adopted by many local governments.

Reconstruction and future planning emphasize resilience based on good advance preparation, rapid

and effective response, and quick post-disaster recovery then developing flood management

measures to reduce future flood risk.

By the end of 2011 the Thai government had decided to adopt the basic concept of the Chao Phrayaflood management master plan completed by JICA in 1999 and avoid the need for redoing detailedstudies from scratch. Of course, the master plan is being updated because conditions havechanged since 1997 when the previous analysis was undertaken. There are many low-lying flatareas in the middle and lower river basin, where agricultural activity was dominant but there hasbeen substantial industrialization. There is very little fall from these low lands to the sea in the Gulfof Thailand. A mix of structural and non-structural measures will be used to reduce flood risk,based on a definition of flood risk as including hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Mr Takeyadefined vulnerability as the product of hazard and exposure.

It is recognized that the large water storages in the Chao Phraya basin were historically more

important for irrigation than for flood control. They enable three rice crops per year, Thailand is a

key exporter of rice, and more water available means more rice. With respect to climate change, a

shift in the seasonal pattern of rainfall and runoff has potential to disrupt the usual practices and

incur greater flood damage.

Mr Takeya turned his attention to JICA experience in the Indus river basin in Pakistan, where

exceptional floods were caused by the 2010 monsoon. In some places there was record rainfall,

but not everywhere. Apart from the high rainfall, population growth and the exposure of more

14.15 15.00 Flood Management: the Chao Phraya River Basin Update

19 January Mr. Kimio Takeya,

Senior Advisor, Japanese International Cooperation Agency


7/21

7


people and property in the floodplains led to exceptional consequences from the floods. Providing a

brief sketch of the situation there, he explained that because of the limited capacity of river

channels downstream, structural measures assume great importance, with multi-purpose storages

upstream, huge barrages in the middle reaches and 6,000 km of continuous levees in the plains

where irrigated agriculture is the prime activity. Every 100 m, simple watch-houses have been

erected so that during floods the water levels and condition of the levees can be observed day and

night. Operations of water management structures and maintenance of levees are of critical

importance in flood management. But the problem remains of how to deal with over-standard

floods (residual risk).

Should the goal be for safety or resilience? Safety goes beyond resilience. Structural measures must

be complemented with non-structural measures, e.g. reforestation, land use change, land use

practices, flood forecasting and early warning systems, and insurance. Because of limited

resources, the concept of resilience has to be rethought for application to each area, and invest-

ment should target no regrets or low regrets measures. He referred to the Hyogo Framework for

Action on disaster management, which lists priorities for action as:

y Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and

local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation;

y Know the Risks and Take Action identify, assess and monitor disaster risk and enhance

early warning;

y Build Understanding and Awareness use knowledge, innovation and education to build a

culture of safety and resilience at all levels;

y Reduce Risk reduce the underlying risk factors;

y Be Prepared and Ready to Act strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at

all levels.

Mt Takeya next considered the recent experience of the Japanese tsunami. In Japan high investment

has aimed more for safety than for resilience, but in 2011 the flood walls erected along the coast

were easily overwhelmed. Graphic images were displayed. There has also been good land use

planning and resettlement from high-risk areas in the past, although this varies depending on the

leadership of local communities. In some communities there are markers representing high water

levels in past tsunamis (e.g. 1896) and building development is restricted to higher ground.

Evacuations were often 95% or more successful in 2011 because of the transmission over many

generations of past tsunami experience, effective early warning systems, meticulous evacuation

plans and regular drills. Without these measures the consequences of the tsunami would havebeen even more tragic. Public education on disaster management and response has been crucial.

An example was given of complete evacuation by students in the city of Kamaishi based on

following exercise drills.

Disaster management entails self-preparedness, public preparedness, and mutual support of

individuals, households, communities and government agencies. In addition to the preparations by

governments and communities, personal responsibility is emphasized in Japan.

Although industrialization has increased in the middle parts of the Chao Phraya river basin, agricult-

ure remains extremely important. The dilemma is how agriculture and fisheries can coexist with

droughts and floods, some of which are irrigated and others rely on seasonal flooding. Construction

of modern irrigation areas typically involves construction of dikes that separate the river from the

fields and ponds. It also reduces floodplain storage useful for mitigation of floods and flood levels

downstream. How can we develop a systematic plan that is sustainable and equitable throughout

the river basin? And what do we mean by sustainable?

In Japan there is application of hard measures to mitigate flood hazard, by widening of rivers,

strengthening of dikes, etc., often requiring land acquisition. But there is also application of soft

measures. Flood mapping is published for every city, and based on the mapping city authorities

declare flood hazard zones and impose development regulations. Current information on river

states are provided to the public, the extents of flood inundation are forecast and disseminated,

including use of mass media, internet and cell-phones.

In Thailand, JICA will respect and make use of the local knowledge and experience of Thailand in

revising the Chao Phraya master plan, adapting the plan to changed conditions since 1997,


8/21

8


analyzing the monkey cheek concept of floodwater detention, employing structural measures to

protect concentrations of assets (as in Bangkok), proposing other counter-disaster measures and

reviewing drainage of floodwaters to the sea.

Mr Mak explained that the Netherlands may be a small country, but is very low-lying and so highly

experienced in flood management. 60% of the country is flood-prone and 25% is continuously

below sea level, in places up to 7.6 m below sea level. They have achieved a high level of security

with coastal defenses up to 1:10,000 standard and river dikes to 1:1,250 standard, employing a

complex system of flood protection and water management infrastructure. They continue to learn

from experience, introducing new measures, innovations and integrated plans after flooding in the

north in 1916, the 1953 flood disaster with over 2,000 casualties. Floods in the Rhine River in 1993and 1995 again tested their systems. Not because the floods approached the standard of dike

protection but because a risk of dike failure was perceived, 2,500 people were evacuated in 1995.

Renewed planning and works have been undertaken.

One initiative was a program to make space for the rivers, involving setback of dikes. Alternatively

this may be seen as redressing problems that were allowed to grow by development encroaching

on floodplains where space was required to convey or pass the floods downstream. Another

initiative was the Flood Protection Act of 2005, requiring inspection and evaluation of dike safety

every 5 years. The government is now addressing challenges raised by climate change, including

sea level rise, more severe coastal storms, increased coastal erosion, higher intensity rainfall,

saltwater intrusion, etc. In 2008 the Delta Program was initiated to implement an integrated plan

to ensure flood safety and water security (including quantity and quality of water resources

available), beginning with no regret measures and the room for rivers program, and including

rigorous analysis to identify issues and future management measures required. The Delta Program

has an annual budget of 1 billion and sheltered funding is being provided so that the program can

be sustained and does not have to compete annually with other funding priorities. The Delta

Program has been de-politicized by appointing a Commissioner independent of political parties

whose role is to guide implementation of the program.

For future planning Mr Mak shared some suggestions based on Dutch experience.

y Implementation of difficult and complex programs is facilitated with a well-executed stakeholder

consultation program right from the beginning (including local governments).

y Future scenarios are used to ensure planned systems will be robust in face of future uncertain-

ty, e.g. climate change, socio-economic development. Scenarios are used to identify tipping

points, or when and in what circumstances existing systems will fail to work properly.

y The concept of building with nature is useful, i.e. trying to make best use of natural systems in

implementation of proposals.

y It is also most important to have a focus or focal group for decision-making and implementat-

ion.

Mr Verwey spoke mainly about modeling tools and methods developed systematically in the

Netherlands over many years, but also shared his insights into his experience during the Chao

Phraya floods of 2011. Hydraulic modeling and hydrological tools have been developed over the

past 50 years that are valuable tools in simulating real and planned flood management systems. In

the Netherlands the models were used to simulate what could have happened in 1995 if the dikes

had failed. Simulations are important to understand how flooding may evolve and how much time

15.30 16.15 Flood Management: the Experience of the Netherlands and the Rhine Basin

19 January Mr. Willem Mak,

Director and Water Business and International Water Affairs,

Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, and

Adri Verwey,Deltares


9/21

9


is available for action. They are also used in advance evacuation planning and in damages

estimation.

Good lead times are available in Thailand at least in the middle and lower parts of river basins so

accurate forecasting would be very effective in flood management here. Deltares applied models

for the levee breaches that occurred north of Bangkok and were able to predict in advance the

flood impacts around Don Muang airport, limits to the extent of inundation and timing. The model-

ing also demonstrated how only some of the pumping stations around Bangkok could be effective

in flood management. Mr Verwey made the point that the Bangkok drainage system is designed forstormwater management not flood management, so many of the pump stations located to protect

the lowest parts of Bangkok can play little role in managing floods coming from the north.

FEWS is a generic system for flood warning that is now widely used in Europe and in other parts of

the world. Developed around 2000, the system enables the integration of weather forecasting from

multiple sources, including numerical synoptic analysis, data from ground stations, weather radar,

satellite imagery, etc. In this way forecast lead times can be extended. The weather forecasts are

linked to hydrological and hydraulic model packages so that the impacts of forecasts can be visual-

ized and flood warnings disseminated. FEWS is flexible, allowing use of freely available information

such as satellite data and NOAAA global and regional weather models, or different packages for

hydrological and hydraulic modeling. In the UK, FEWS is used in conjunction with ensemble fore-

casting, where 51 alternative weather model forecasts can be simulated to gain better appreciation

of risk. The forecasts can also be useful in other contexts e.g., agricultural sector, hydropower

production, reservoir operations, water quality management, etc.

Prof. Galloway began with key lessons learned from recent US flood experience and then proceeded

to discuss the cases of the lower Mississippi River and the Missouri River, both of which

experienced major flooding in 2011. Key messages are:

y Absolute protection from floods is impractical. Plan for exceedance events (residual risk) with arisk management approach.

y A single structural approach cannot be relied on. It is essential to implement a portfolio of flood

risk management measures.

y Risks must be identified and quantified, and decisions then made on relative risk (or sharing

risk). It must be recognized that not everyone will get the same standard of protection.

y Decisions have to be made with imperfect knowledge. The future will be different to the past.

y Responsibilities must be clear in advance. Responsibilities have to be shared by many agencies,

and effective local action is essential.

y Life cycle needs and costs must be addressed, so that structural flood management assets

receive adequate maintenance.

y Effective communication of flood risk is crucial to the people, legislators and leaders.

Floods have been part of American history and people have been trying to deal with the challenge offloods ever since European settlement. After major floods in theMississippi River in the 1800s, the

Mississippi River Commission (MRC) was established in 1879 to provide a coordinated effort on

flood control. At first, efforts focused very largely on levee construction, but after the levees were

overwhelmed by a major flood in 1927 a convention and series of meetings over 12 months led to

a more integrated approach to flood management with federal responsibility for levees, and use of

floodways, off-stream storage (flood detention), training revetments, dredging and dams, with the

MRC in charge. Prof. Galloway discussed the New Madrid floodway and flood detention area just

downstream of the Ohio River confluence which was activated in April 2011 after very high rainfall

fell over the sub-basin of the Ohio River. Diversion into the floodway is designed to lower flood

levels at Cairo upstream by over 2 meters. Fuse-plugs at the top and bottom of the 55 km flood-

16.15 17.00 Flood Risk Management: Recent US Experience and Lessons Learned

19 January Professor Gerald Galloway, Jr.

University of Maryland, Washington D.C.


10/21

10


way are either blasted or

overtopped. The federal govern-

ment paid flowage rights to

landholders in the 1930s. In 2011

the system was tested for the first

time since 1937 with the MRC

deliberately inundating 538 km2

off-stream. Design capacity of the

river channel downstream is

85,000 m3/s. The peak in 2011

was over 70,000 m3/s. The flood

peak takes 3 weeks to reach New

Orleans near the river mouth.

Floodways to the east and west of

the city reduce flood levels there

and protect key strategic

industries. In 1927 about

68,000 km2 were flooded, but in

2011 with a flood of similar

magnitude the area flooded was reduced to 26,300 km2. Although work is now required to repair

and rebuild, the system performed as intended and saved the nation over $50 billion in 2011

alone. Since the initial expenditure of $13.9 billion on compensation paid and works implemented

after the 1927 flood, the Mississippi scheme is credited with avoidance of $ 350 billion in damage.

The Missouri River also flooded later in 2011 after heavy precipitation in March, melting of the

snowpack on the northern plains in March and April, further snowmelt from the mountains through

to July, and rainfall well above average through to October caused the highest runoff since 1898.

Flood mitigation on the Missouri River relies mainly on a series of 6 large dams. These dams are

multi-purpose and have designated flood control functions. Despite their role mitigating the floods,

extensive inundation from the river occurred, and people failed to understand that the dams could

not guarantee protection from very large floods. Communities affected will need to take greater

responsibility for self-protection and a common vision must be developed similar to the Mississippi

River with a concept of shared responsibility and an integrated plan for flood risk management. A

post-flood review of operations emphasized the importance of dam operators complying with exist-ing manuals and concluded that future improvements would depend on longer term forecasting.

Unlike the Missouri, the Mississippi River has a single agency (MRC) with responsibility for flood

management and with authority to implement appropriate measures during floods. It also functions

as a unified funding unit and has greater flexibility for integrated operations.

With respect to trends, the US is moving more from flood control to flood risk management, with

formulation of a National Flood Risk Management Program by the US Army Corps of Engineers and

FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). One significant approach in the program is to

identify flood risk and make decisions based upon relative risk (risk considered as the product of

hazard and consequences); and it should be recognized that in the sharing of risk not all will get the

same protection as in the case of the New Madrid floodway inundated to reduce risk upstream and

downstream, for example. We need to consider management of the residual risk after all measures

that can reasonably and affordably be undertaken have been implemented. A good new example ofthis is the FloodSafe California plan, which developed a multi-faceted initiative to improve public

safety through integrated flood management. Prof. Galloway also noted the current need for

substantial investment to upgrade the condition of older levees and dams throughout his nation.


11/21

11


Although China suffers from many disasters, floods are responsible for the greatest losses. As early

as around 2,500 years ago there are writings about floods as the severest of the Five Hazards.

Flood-prone areas are the major regions of Chinese social and economic activity, with 66% of the

population residing in areas at greatest risk. During the past 100 years the numbers of lives lost to

flood hazards each year has steadily declined, but remains around an average of nearly 1,500

(2000-2009).

Part of the strategy to manage this great problem has been to establish water resources commiss-

ions for each of 7 main river basins that embrace almost all of Chinese territory. Related to that

has been development of flood control infrastructure including 85,000 dams, 270,000 km of dikes,

31,600 gated flood regulating structures and 170 major flood detention areas. Dr Cheng noted the

system of compensation used whenever these detention areas have to be used for temporary

floodwater storage. He also discussed the institutional arrangements for Flood Control and Drought

Relief Headquarters with very senior leadership which is a multi-tiered organization operating at all

levels of government and including river basin commissions.

They have found that the challenges of flood control are changing due to climatic variations, increas-

ing population, rapid socio-economic development and urbanization, and because of structural

measures being implemented. This was discussed in the context of the Yangtze River and major

floods that occurred in 1931, 1935, 1954 and 1998. Whereas loss of life has decreased, property

damage has increased and flood levels are higher due to flood infrastructure (dikes) and socio-

economic development. Whereas agricultural losses were greatest in the past, now around 2/3 are

damages to industry, transportation and infrastructure. A coastal city like Bangkok, the Shanghai

flood control system being implemented was also discussed, and its use of scientific studies and

numerical flood simulation models to design dikes, sea-walls and drainage systems. Sea level rise,

subsidence and increased river discharges are continuing to erode high standards of protection.

The experience of the 1998 floods prompted greater investment in flood control infrastructure, but

also prompted a change in thinking leading to a shift from flood control to flood management with

a broader vision of society, the economy, the environment and ecosystems, resources, public

security, etc. A 32-word policy was decreed that includes many non-structural approaches to flood

management. Most lives are now lost in flash floods, including landslides and debris flows.Many

new initiatives have since been introduced, including a program for implementation of systems for

flash flood monitoring and early warning. By 2010, 500 of these systems had been installed at

county scale throughout mountainous parts of China, and this number will increase to over 1,800

within 3 years. Other national plans being implemented include integrated management schemes

for medium and small river basins, and the rehabilitation of unsafe reservoirs based on field

evaluations, maintenance and upgrading. Dr Cheng noted the National FloodManagement Strategy

and action plan that was developed with ADB assistance in 2005/06 based on the management of

the 3 risk factors of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, structured planning and a sound

institutional foundation.

In conclusion, he offered some opinions on flood management priorities for developing countries

learned from Chinese experience. For example: planning carefully step by step to create a new

balance to meet changing demands of growth and development; creating stable sources of funding

that break away from the start-stop cycle in reaction to flood disasters; integrating and

strengthening coordination mechanisms. Structural measures are of paramount importance, but

institutional and non-structural measures are also necessary such as monitoring networks,

forecasting and warning systems, high standards of management and governance, and information

management and decision support systems. He discussed comprehensive steps in making a good

management plan for implementation, and noted that increasing demands for water security also

impact on future management of flood risk.

08.45 09.30 Flood Management: the Experience of the PRC

20 January Dr. Xiaotao Cheng,

Executive Director, Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction,

Ministry of Water Resources


12/21

12


The 4 major river basins in South Korea are the Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsam river basins.

Average annual precipitation over Korea is 1,245 mm similar to that in the Chao Phraya river

basin with 2/3 occurring during the flood season from June to September. Per capita water

resources availability is lower than the global average so water security is also an issue. Annual

flood damages average $ 2.2 billion. Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and

rainfall over the coming century. Over the past decade damages were heavier in years 2002, 2003

and 2006 due to typhoons Rusa, Maemi and Ewinia.

The 5 key tasks identified for revival of the rivers are: securing water; improving water quality;

protecting against floods; promoting local economy; and restoring river ecosystems. The scope of

the flood control component includes dredging of rivers, development of 6 flood detention areas,

and strengthening of 620 km of dikes intended to lower flood levels by up to 4 m. The core

projects in the program were completed in 2011 and the remainder are scheduled for completionthis year. Agricultural land is being remodeled and made more secure from floods with the use of

material dredged from the rivers. Effectiveness of the schemes were tested in 2011 when record-

breaking rainfall occurred from late June to mid-July. No flood damage was incurred due to

reduced flood levels.

A key measure in the water security objective is construction of large regulating weirs. By construct-

ing these with moveable gates, accumulated sediment can be periodically discharged and flood

levels can be controlled based on flood forecasting by lowering, raising or rotating gates. For the

water quality objective, targeting non-point sources of pollution and sewerage treatment has

achieved quantifiable improvements in water quality. Existing wetlands will be preserved, improved

and expanded. Access to river frontages has been improved with construction of bicycle routes,

promenades and water recreation facilities to enhance life-style.

Key aspects for successful

implementation of the Four

Rivers Project relevant to

the Chao Phraya are

organization, legal

compliance and public

participation. The project

organization involved

creation of an Office of

National River Restoration

(ONRR) reporting to

standing presidential

committees and the PrimeMinisters Office. Overview

of ONRR operations was

delegated to an advisory

committee, and support was

provided by task forces in

relevant ministries.

During 2009 and 2010, 196 public meetings were conducted, and there has been an ongoing

process of feedback from local governments that are able to submit their own recommendations.

River basin schemes are operated with support of information management and decision support

09.30 10.15 The Four Rivers Restoration Project and Implications for the Chao Phraya

20 January Dr. Shim, Myung-Pil,

Minister, the Office of National River Restoration under the Ministry of Land,

Transport and Maritime Affairs of Republic of Korea

and Mr. Park Jae Soon


13/21

13


systems. For the Chao Phraya, advice was offered to establish a short-term plan as soon as

possible with appropriate flood management measures in the upper, middle and lower parts of the

river basin. The approach used in the Four Rivers Restoration Project could be a guide.

Mr Sderstrm talked about emergency preparedness planning for large floods and dam-breaks in

Sweden. Sweden has a large number of hydropower dams on most of the larger rivers. Flood

mapping in Sweden commenced in 1998 using existing topographic mapping data. Initially it did

not include dam-break scenarios. Costs of planning measures are now shared equally between

dam owners and the government. Accurate topographic data of the valleys has been acquired

using LIDAR (laser technology) from aircraft since 2005, beginning with the 10 largest rivers.

Coverage to date exceeds 10,000 km2. Flood mapping is then done by consultants and stored on

GIS (Geographic Information System) with aerial photography, then disseminated with freeviewing software to municipalities, dam owners and emergency services organizations. The

mapping is used for preparedness planning, alert routines/drills, evacuation plans and raising

public awareness. Engineering dam safety work is also part of the preparations. The flood mapping

program is scheduled for completion over the entire country by 2017. Some of the key information

derived from the hydraulic flood analysis for rescue services are warning times available, and rates

of rise of floodwaters. A series of guidelines are also being produced, including building guidelines

for construction in flood risk zones.

Dr Morling spoke about sanitation, safety and technology during flooding based on recent experience

in Thailand. In the flooded areas of Thailand there is around 4 million tons of wastewater disposal

every day, only some of which is treated; and around 2 million tons of solid waste. As a

consequence substantial volumes of contamination are released into floodwaters, affecting raw

water sources for water supply and posing a threat to public health. Wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs) take time to be reinstated after flooding. Typically, WWTPs are located at the lower

points in their collection areas, making them more vulnerable. In current work for Om-Noi the

WWTP is being raised from -0.5 m elevation above sea level to +3.0 m. Dr Morling described other

design features being applied to ensure the WWTP can remain operational during floods.

Dr Porter noted that the framework he would discuss is based upon work undertaken with ADB in

preparation of a national flood management strategy for China and has been used in subsequent

studies since. He commenced with a definition of risk drawn from the insurance industry: Risk =

Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability, and proceeded to explain each of these 3 risk factors. This

definition of flood risk is particularly useful because the different measures taken to reduce flood

risk are each modifying one or other of these 3 risk factors. Dealing with exposure requires land

management as well as water management. In flood risk management, modifying vulnerability

mainly deals with raising awareness and preparedness. Some have also identified issues of

poverty, education and governance as pertinent to vulnerability; and while those issues are

10.30 11.15 Flood Management: the Experience of Sweden

20 January Mr. Anders Sderstrm,Head of Hydraulics & Hydrology Department, Sweco International AB,

and Dr. Stig Mrling,

Senior Consultant in Water Environment Technologies, Sweco International AB

11.15 12.00 A Framework for Flood Risk Management

20 January Dr John W Porter,

International Flood Management Specialist, Adviser to ADB


14/21

14


relevant they are issues for much broader treatment rather than issues for treatment under flood

risk management.

Other important dimensions for a good strategic framework for flood risk management include the

institutional foundation, the process of plan preparation, and consideration of social and

environmental impacts other than the impacts on flood risk. Each of these extra dimensions was

discussed. The challenges of coordinated action and partnership required between government

agencies was raised, a proposed planning methodology was presented, and safeguards against

unintended social and environmental impacts.

Dr Porter concluded by emphasizing the importance of:

y legislation to clearly delegate roles and responsibilities;

y a key coordination role mandated for one lead agency in flood risk management; and

y broad stakeholder participation throughout the planning process.

INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATION

PLANNING

FLOOD HAZARD

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

Flood Control Works

Structural planning & design

Asset maintenance:

monitoring condition

rehabilitation /upgrading

funding

Operations:

decision support systems

communications systems

data acquisition networks

integration with WR management

env.management

Catchment Management

Soil conservation

Upland land use management

Land Use Management

flood hazard zoning

land use planning controls

property acquisitions

resettlement

Flood forecasting

hydrological models

hydraulic models & DTMs

flood hazard maps

data acquisition networks

Flood warning & emergency response

communications systems

preparedness exercises

decision support systems

Post-flood recovery

support services: health, counseling

material support: food, shelter

infrastructure repairs

financial assistance & incentives

compensation / flood insurance

Land Use Management

building regulations

River basin master plans

Project proposal planning & appraisal

: risk assessment: appraisal of alternative options

Planning for emergency responsePlanning for post-flood recovery

Urban drainage master plans

Rural drainage master plans

Partnerships: across levels of government Restructuring: enhancing coordination

between different levels of government

Legi sl ati on: c larifying mandates Training / awareness / capaci ty building

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION

COMMUNITY CONSULTATION SOCIAL SAFEGUARDS

ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARDS

INDIGENOUS PEOPLES

SAFEGUARDS

GENDER ISSUES


15/21

15


Dr Porter proposed that the forum discussion consider the 3 parts of the Chao Phraya basin. The

issues to tackle differed between the upper, middle and lower basin. While most economic

damages were incurred in the middle and lower basin, virtually all of the loss of life (about 700

lives were lost) occurred in the upper basin, caused by flash floods and landslides. In many other

countries too, flash floods are the real killers. So, how do we deal with flash floods given they

occur with such short warning.

Dr Cheng said more than 70% of deaths from floods in China were caused by flash floods in

mountainous areas, and it was recognized that it is very difficult for structural measures to deal

with the hazard. Therefore the efforts have been directed to effective emergency response and

early warning systems. The early warning systems monitor rainfall, and landslides have been

related to depths of rainfall that are triggers for emergency response and evacuation plans.

Villagers are also trained to observe conditions and warn others downstream, and some monitoring

of river levels also occurs. The government has invested large amounts in recent years installing

monitoring and warning systems.

Prof. Galloway referred to recent flash flooding that killed 138 people in a canyon in the US. It is

difficult to manage because of the short warning time for action, but one approach being used is

education so that people are aware of risk and have advice on what to do and where to go duringflash floods. Most were killed in their cars trying to drive away when they could have been saved

had they climbed the slopes of the valley. Signage is now used to make people aware of risk. In

Los Angeles, the weather agency alerts people to the likelihood of very heavy downpours. Dr

Porter noted that forecast lead times could be extended if meteorological forecasts can be added to

hydrological forecasting.

Mr Abdulhamid said the World Bank supported small-scale structural measures in flash flood risk

areas in the Philippines, Cambodia and Indonesia and referred people to the WB website for more

information.

Mr Takeya lamented very short times applicable between heavy rain and flood peaks in urban Tokyo,

sometimes as little as 15 minutes. In Japan weather forecasts are made using latest technology

including radar but the problem is how to effectively disseminate warnings at such short notice.

One development is the use of messages using cell-phone technology directing messages to thosein flood risk zones. As for earthquake and tsunami warning, education plays a vital role. There is

particular need to educate school children so that future generations will be more risk aware and

prepared for emergencies. Prof. Galloway cautioned that floods often occur at night when people

are asleep and have their cell-phones turned off. Most US flooding deaths occur in cars, and the

government has initiated an education campaign warning people not to drive through floodwaters.

Major-General Wilson considered watershed management important in upper basins and discussed

the role of land use management, but noting too the challenge of persuading people to change

their practices.

13.30 15.30 OPEN FORUM onManaging Flood Risk: the Chao Phraya River Basin

20 January Moderator: Dr John Porter, International Flood Management Specialist

Panellists:

y Dr. Seree Supharatid,Director of Rangsit Universitys Centre on Climate Change and Disaster

y Dr. Sombat Yumuang, Director, Geo-Informatics Center for Thailand,Chulalongkorn University

y Mr. Azad Abdulhamid, World Bank

y Professor Gerald Galloway, Jr, University of Maryland

y Dr. Xiaotao Cheng, , Executive Director, Research Center on Flood andDrought Disaster Reduction, MWR


16/21

16


In Thailand, Dr Sombat said new approaches and technology need to be applied, but these need to

be informed by knowledge and understanding. Thailand can learn from overseas experience but

needs to adapt to different circumstances. More studies are required and people will need to be

educated; for example, mapping could be used to raise risk awareness. Dr Porter said good

precipitation networks are essential and information on exposure to flash flooding, i.e., where

people are located who may need to be warned or evacuated.

Mr Sderstrm explained how risk awareness is implemented in Sweden, where warning times are

typically only hours. Instruction booklets are circulated to all residents and businesses in flood riskzones with advice on what they should do and where they should go if they receive a warning.

These include maps showing evacuation centers or refuge sites. Municipalities also dedicate a page

on their websites with similar information. Periodic drills may also include members of the public;

however, more technical information and details of danger and damage are restricted to the official

sector one reason being the terrorism threat.

The discussion turned to the issue of deforestation, which from photographs in Dr Apicharts earlier

presentation is a serious issue in the upper Chao Phraya basin. This is also a difficult issue to

manage, as upper watershed management requires a change of customary practices and there-

fore is almost like social engineering. Illegal logging is also a factor in Thailand.Making a difference

in this field requires sustained effort over many years with uncertain outcomes that will take many

years before returns or benefits are evident.

Dr Sombat acknowledged the problem in Thailand, including the erosion and sediment depositioncaused, obstruction of waterways, etc. Even with use of GIS and remote sensing in Thailand,

information and knowledge is insufficient, making it difficult to communicate the message effect-

ively to rural communities. Dr Porter commented on how difficult it is to get people to change what

they do, and increasing population adds to the pressure on land use. He asked the panel for any

successful examples of reforestation.

Prof. Galloway talked about the experience of the mid-west US where in the depression years of the

1930s land had been over-used and topsoil was blown away. A federal program set up the Soil

Conservation Service, and people were placed in rural communities throughout these regions to

explain to farmers what was happening and why, and persuaded them to alter their land use

practices. Initial works were generally not implemented until about 1940, but after about another

15 years it was possible to show that runoff and erosion had indeed been reduced. Federal support

and SCS programs were vital.

Dr Apichart said that it is not always villagers whose awareness must be raised in Thailand some-

times it is government officials who can learn from locals. He cited an example of a Thai village

where the headman promoted a local project to protect 1,000 ha of forest. This included keeping

watch in the forest, and mobilizing people to fight fires. This local initiative received no government

support, even though it would have been more cost effective and more easily replicable than

programs in which the government was investing. Dr Porter noted that local participation was a

key for sustainability of such programs. Dr Sombat added that the programs must tackle the

problems at the scale of watersheds. Government officials too often think in terms of administrat-

ive boundaries.

Dr Porter raised the programs being undertaken with World Bank assistance in Chinas Yellow River

basin, where fluvial sediment loads are the highest in the world. Mr Abdulhamid spoke about WB

programs in Karnataka state in India and Southern Anatolia in Turkey. These community programsinvolve 3 phases: planning and preparation, implementation, and post-implementation. The first

phase is most important even if it means there may be no works implemented in the first 2 years

or so. Good results have been achieved.

The focus of the discussion next shifted to the middle river basin where there is considerable

industry and agriculture exposed to flood hazard. In theory there is a key role for land use

management to prevent more development being exposed in future, but the assets already there

will need extra protection. It was noted that past land use controls had failed to reserve land for

floodways in the lower basin, for example. In the middle basin detention of floodwaters will also

have a role because of the delay involved in floodwaters getting through to the Gulf of Thailand.


17/21

17


Dr Sombat raised the issue ofoperations of upstream reservoirs, and said this needs to be

reviewed. Other measures include dikes and diversions to flood detention storage. Negotiations

with landholders will be necessary to agree on appropriate compensation. In his opinion, making

decisions on a plan is more important right now than any construction. Dr Porter commented on

the conflict in dam use between flood control and water supply (e.g. for irrigation), noting that

existing reservoirs were intended for irrigation not flood control. There may be potential to improve

operations by examining hydrology and probabilities of inflows, and having regard to the month of

the year and prevailing climatic conditions and rainfall, however more dams are unlikely to be an

adequate solution because new dams will also have irrigation priorities. Dr Cheng noted that most

of the 85,000 dams in China were constructed in the 1950s to 1970s and now have safety issues

requiring major investment. Originally flood control was generally the primary purpose of these

dams, but with population growth and socio-economic development water supply is assuming

greater priority and the volumes of storage allowed for flood control in the wet season is more

limited. The new approach is for flexible target levels and dynamic operations based on forecasting

of rainfall and reservoir inflows. Water can be released from storages if flood inflows are forecast.

Dr Seree discussed operation of Pasak Dam operated by RID, suggesting that better use of storage

may have been possible if forecast inflows were more accurate, and allowing that safety of the

dam must be of paramount importance.

Mr Abdulhamid said irrigation departments in many countries focus on water supply and neglect

drainage aspects. In reviewing irrigation assets in Thailand last year he concluded that there is a

large maintenance gap i.e. a gap between the claims operators submit for maintenance and thefunds supplied for that purpose by government, with the result that many canals and pumping

stations cannot function to their capacity. Also, multiple agencies are responsible for assets so that

a unified management for flood mitigation is impossible. He noted the example where dikes on one

side of the Chao Phraya are owned by RID and embankments on the other side belong to the

highways department.

Professor Galloway commented that, as Dr Cheng had alluded to, conditions have changed since

many reservoirs were constructed. It is therefore appropriate that dam operations be reviewed and

revised, and this is being done under a national program in the US. For example, it may be

possible to use groundwater recharge as storage for water supply, freeing some reservoir storage.

In the Missouri River it took 15 years for revisions of dam operations to be finalized, however,

because there are so many stakeholders and conflicting interests to consider and reconcile.

Dr Porter turned the conversation to the role ofdikes, flood detention storage, land use

management and a mix of measures to manage floods in the middle basin, noting that it will

require careful analysis to resolve the complex issues.Mr Verwey from the Netherlands agreed that

an integrated understanding of how the river basin and water resources infrastructure was

essential and could only be achieved with model simulations. The good set of data collected during

the 2011 flood will help make better models. He noticed on a December visit to Chieng Mai that

people there were already talking about water shortage again and ruing missed opportunities to

capture more water for future use. That illustrates that management of the assets must jointly

consider management of floods and droughts. Prof. Galloway said management planning will be

very interesting because there are so many stakeholders involved, so think about what

mechanisms can be used in making management decisions and trade-offs. In the US a 50-year

management and restoration plan is being prepared after Hurricane Katrina, and the stakeholder

participation process is one of the greatest challenges. People dont like surprises, so they need tobe well informed. Dr Sombat commented on the difficulty of implementing a master plan,

considering that a single authority or command should be set up for the purpose. A comment from

the audience, drawing from experience in France, noted that where water resources systems have

to satisfy multiple objectives some modeling of operations is essential for optimization.

Dr Seree noted there was also some flooding in 2010, not as widespread as in 2011, but it was un-

related to reservoir operations in the Chao Phraya basin. Mr Takeya from JICA said more accurate

topographic data is necessary in the Chao Phraya basin and use of LIDAR technology is being

considered. When the hydraulic model is set up for the Chao Phraya basin it can not only be used

for optimization and master planning, but can also be used for flood forecasting. The model should


18/21

18


be functional by August this year. Dr Porter added that while model analysis is essential, the

process of stakeholder consultation is also essential to gain general acceptance of plan provisions.

Dr Cheng said the middle reaches of large river basins often are agricultural heartlands and at the

same time are important storage areas for retardation of floods, so the dilemma is how to preserve

that natural retardation function compatible with farming the land. In China there is a policy for

compensation, and the Flood Control Headquarters assume responsibility for diversion operations

and pumping from irrigated lands. Dr Porter said this is about sharing risks. In the Chao Phraya,

Bangkok benefits from flood detention storage upstream. One question for government is how totransfer costs, since urban Bangkok is benefiting from disbenefits to land users upstream. Prof.

Galloway insisted that beneficiaries should pay, but it can be difficult: difficult to persuade land-

holders of the necessity to inundate their land, and difficult for beneficiaries to understand how

they are benefiting from others misfortunes. He added that in risk sharing the environment also

needs to be considered, noting it is more difficult and expensive to restore environmental assets

afterwards than to protect them in the first instance, and quoting examples from the Florida

Everglades and Louisiana wetlands. He maintained that the national government should accept the

role of environmental protection; and Dr Porter added that the environment as a stakeholder in

water resources management has no voice of its own, so government should be advocate for the

environment.

The discussion then moved on to consider the lower basin issues. Dr Porter explained that there is

inadequate capacity for floodwaters from upstream to get past Bangkok and escape to the sea.

Canals are used for irrigation and are not designed for or have adequate capacity for the passage

of floods, so extra floodways are a potential solution that would need to be confirmed by model

analysis.

Dr Seree said analysis of last years floods showed that a capacity of 2,000 m3/s would be needed to

the east and west of Bangkok, but floodways would need to work in conjunction with upstream

flood detention. Compensation negotiations would be difficult, but insurance is unrealistic as

farmers cannot afford or are unwilling to pay even 200 baht for insurance premiums. In response

to a question from Dr Seree, Dr Cheng explained that the Chinese government only pays compen-

sation to those in government-operated flood detention areas and only if their land is flooded

deliberately although the Civil Affairs departments often assist others flooded, but those pay-

ments are very low. Dr Porter said insurance is often an effective measure for businesses, but is

too often unaffordable for poor farmers with little or no disposable income. In the UK there has

been a pact or gentlemans agreement that insurance companies will offer insurance to house-

holders if the government implements adequate measures to mitigate flood impacts; however,

such an understanding would be tested by flooding such as occurred in Thailand last year.

Mr Abdulhamid said infrastructure in the lower basin was not functioning as planned because of poor

maintenance. Operations need to be analyzed and efficiency improved.

Prof. Galloway said a national flood insurance scheme had operated in the US since 1968 and was

partly successful. After the Hurricane Katrina disaster, however, the fund was left $17 billion in

debt. The question now arises whether it can continue to function as it did or whether it will impose

rates that are truly risk-based. Private insurers point out that risk is not stable and will increase

because of climate change, value of assets at risk, and the deteriorating condition of flood

management infrastructure. In the UK, insurance companies are threatening to withdraw from the

traditional agreement noted by Dr Porter above. On the other hand, rates for insurance cover mustbe affordable. In the US it is recognized that some subsidy is required for poorer people at risk.

Dr Porter talked about the large number ofinstitutions involved in aspects of flood management in

Thailand, and numerous pieces of relevant legislation noted in the recent World Bank report.

Better focus on flood management is desirable. One lead agency is needed which may be a new

agency, but could be a special unit or bureau set up within one of the existing institutions. It

should have a permanent role, as distinct from special committees that may be set up to respond

after floods have occurred. Ideally, there should be a unifying piece of flood management legislat-

ion although that could be embedded within broader legislation such as a Water Resources Act.

Dr Seree pointed to the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation law enacted in Thailand about 5 years

ago. Based on that law, a master plan was subsequently prepared, but has been ineffective. For


19/21

19


example, the plan stated that governors should be responsible for implementation of certain

measures in their administrative areas, but nothing was done because governors have so many

other priorities and have low awareness of the master plan provisions. It is a political issue. There

is a plan but no action. Dr Sombat added that training is required to raise awareness and explain

the provisions. In practice there has been too little preparation, only the phases of response and

recovery in the disaster cycle have been practiced in Thailand, which leads to crisis management.

Science, engineering and social disciplines all have to be involved in plan preparation. In the US,

FEMA provides education on the disaster cycle of preparation, response and recovery, Prof. Gallo-

way said; but action has to be taken at the local government level. A comment from the floor

noted the importance of the institutional dimension and agencies working in partnership to

implement plans. In the Netherlands it has taken decades to strengthen these working relation-

ships to develop good coordination between agencies.

Mr Petipong had attended a meeting with the Prime Minister that morning and reported to the

forum some of the thinking of the national government. It was important to consider the Chao

Phraya basin in terms of what needs to be done in the upper basin, what needs to be done in the

middle basin, and what needs to be done in the lower basin. In general, future management

cannot rely solely on government agencies but requires cooperation between all stakeholders. A

mix of adaptation and mitigation will be adopted.

In the upper basin he noted there was much damage too. There is a need to rehabilitate soil

conservation and increase resilience. In the middle basin there was great economic damage. The

problem there is difficult, and will require non-structural measures like improving land use

management, and structural measures. In the lower basin a systematic approach is required to

allow water to be released more quickly to the sea. Legal measures may be necessary to achieve

more integrated planning, and the government is considering how a single command unit could

function, perhaps by altering institutional arrangements within the current legal framework.

The government has allocated funds for recovery and reconstruction, including immediate release of

THB 17 billion for short-term priority actions to prepare before the 2012 wet season, including

structural and non-structural measures and an IT system. The keys identified to improve flood

management for 2012 are:

(1)dam and reservoir management, to seek opportunities for improvement;(2) flood detention in the middle basin, and development of a compensation scheme for farmers;

(3) improvement of existing drainage systems, with details to be released;

(4)working from the existing database, improving data management leading to a more effective

forecasting system;

(5)a disaster preparedness plan considering accessibility, logistics, evacuation, equipment stock-

piles, etc., and regular practice drills;

(6)discussion with the Council ofMinisters on legal issues for the proposals.

The relevant government agencies have been doing their jobs for many years, but the challenge

now lies in how they can function to adapt to future uncertainty, changing weather patterns, more

frequent floods, etc.

16.00 17.00 The Way Forward: Flood Management Strategy and Plans in Thailand

20 January Moderator: Luxmon Attapich, ADB

Panellists:

y Mr. Petipong Pungboon Na AyudhayaMember of Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management

y Dr. Chukiat Sapphisal, Water Resources Engineering, Kasetsart UniversityMember of Strategic Committee for Water Resources Management

y Mr. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith,Secretary General, National Economic and Social Development Board


20/21

20


Dr Chukiat next made a presentation on the work of the Strategic Committee for Sustainable Water

Resources Management and explained its key areas of interest. It is concerned with the longer

term planning, beginning with the objectives and principles of the plan, policies and measures

required to mitigate and manage future floods, and investment requirements. The future strategy

will involve sustainable management of water resources, living with (adapting to) nature, allowing

adequate temporary storage for floodwater detention, ensuring the livelihood of families in the

area, and integrating management of drought and flood. Information management is one area of

concern: a more centralized information database is necessary, because flood management

pronouncements were being made by the press or other members of the public not always well

informed. The master plan for flood management by the Crown Property Bureau in 2000 included a

good mix of structural and non-structural measures, but needs to be updated.

35,000 km2 (about 22%) of the Chao Phraya basin is floodplain, and 18 million of the 25 million

people in the basin live in those floodplain areas. This is the key economic heartland of the nation,

so some structural measures and flood diversions are necessary. The highest standards of

protection are appropriate for Bangkok. Dr Chukiat proceeded to describe some of the current

thinking on where expenditure would be directed, noting in particular development of flood banks

(i.e. flood detention areas, or monkey cheeks), land management and compensation. He is

confident farmers can be assured of 2 crops per year if not always 3 crops. The plan would lead to

more forest, improved agricultural production, better land use and reduced flood impacts.

Mr Arkhom said the total cost for implementation of the master plan will be THB 300 billion. He

explained that the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), of which he isSecretary-General, is the secretariat for the two strategic committees set up by the government in

response to the 2011 floods. The 2 committees are working jointly on a national strategy looking

at 5 key challenges: (1) water resources management; (2) restructuring of production and service

sectors of the economy (geographic redistribution to less flood-prone areas); (3) a development

strategy to support new economic production areas; (4) infrastructure development for 2012-

2020; and (5) strengthening of the insurance system.

The governments preliminary master plan for water resources management [(1) above] embraces 8

major work plans and 2 action plans (short-term plan in preparation for 2012 wet season; and

longer term plan). The 8 major work plans include:

(1) Restoration and Conservation of Forests and Ecosystems concerned mainly with the upper

basin;

(2)Management ofMajor Reservoirs and Formulation of National Annual WaterManagement Plan concerned primarily with operations of dams and reservoirs;

(3) Restoration and Efficiency Improvement of Current and Planned Physical Structures

concerned primarily but not exclusively with lower basin water resources infrastructure;

(4) Information Warehouse and Forecasting and Disaster Warning System including setting up

of a national water information center;

(5) Response for Specific Areas aimed at better preparedness at all levels;

(6) Assigning Water Retention Areas and Recovery Measures development of designated flood

detention areas and appropriate measures for diversions and special compensation;

(7) Improving Water Management Institutions aimed at establishment of an integrated water

management institution as a single command authority;

(8) Creating Understanding, Acceptance and Participation in Large Scale Flood Management for all

Stakeholders government and community working together.

The infrastructure development [national strategy item (4) above] will adopt a concept of building

back better not simple replacement. One strategic highway between Bangkok and the north

(Chiang Mai) is too vulnerable. He also said a third ring road around Bangkok should be consider-

ed, which might incorporate a roadside canal that could act as a floodway.

To implement the strategy Thailand may need to borrow up to THB 350 billion (not just for water

resources infrastructure but for other infrastructure too). The preliminary plan has been document-

ed, and the government now awaits outcomes of JICAs study to guide certain details of the master

plan. There are 25 agencies involved in water resources management, apart from those respons-

ible for potable water supply and wastewater systems; and the national government also has to

work in conjunction with local governments including the BMA. All projects require a common


21/21

21

understanding be achieved in advance by comprehensive stakeholder consultation, and must be

evaluated in terms of economic viability, social equity and environmental sustainability. Post-

project monitoring is required to evaluate whether proposed benefits are realized. The government

does not wish to over-emphasize structural works, and will respect the advice of HM the King and

HM the Queen. It will monitor spending for transparency and accountability, with a delivery unit

responsible for monitoring plan implementation and reporting to the Prime Minister.

In concluding the proceedings, Mr Arkhom acknowledged the roles of ADB, NESDB and the strategic

committee on water management for organizing and supporting the knowledge sharing forum. He

said the Prime Minister is herself taking keen interest and has asked for briefing on the forum.

He gave an assurance that in any recurrence of the flooding the impacts would not be as severe.

Three key messages Mr Arkhom received in the forum are that recovery and reconstruction have to

be better than before, there will need to be a good balanced approach so that government does notover-invest in structural measures, and that public acceptance is vital so we must take a participat-

ory planning approach and not forget the environment. He proposed another forum at some stage to

review progress made and share experiences again.

KEY MESSAGES

17.00 17.15 Concluding Remarks

20 January Mr. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith,

Secretary General, National Economic and Social Development Board

1. Flood management is multi-faceted, requiring coordination betweenmultiple agencies. To integrate

preparation and implementation of an integrated plan, a lead group/unit is needed to guide policy and

planning and coordinate implementation. If possible, the lead group/unit should be de-politicized.

2. Improved forecasting and early warning is readily achievable. In Thailand, this requires the applicationof modern technology.

3. Once a clear flood management master plan is prepared, stakeholder participation is critical for

success. An intensive consultation program needs to be planned and implemented. For genuine

participation, be prepared to modify the master plan to accommodate constructive inputs and ideas.

4. Emergency response mobilization and action should be more proactive. This needs a well-articulated

action plan for flood response and post-flood recovery; clear designation in advance of r

Note of Forum Proceedings

Documents

Transcript of Note of Forum Proceedings