Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center

Predictive ServicesWinter of 2015-2016

Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook

Monday December 7th 2015

CPC Temperature Outlook for November 2015

(issued October 31st 2015)

Temperatures actually observed in November 2015

(departure from normal)

Climate Outlook verification: Temperature November 2015

CPC Precipitation Outlook for November 2015

(issued October 31st 2015)

Precipitation actually observed in November 2015

(percentage of normal)

Climate Outlook verification: Precipitation November 2015

El Nino Status as of November 2015:ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory in effect

“El Niño will llikely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer of 2016.” -from Nov 12th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion

Historical risk of heavy rain accumulation in El Nino years

December through February

Historical risk of unusually warmth in El Nino years

December through February

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookDecember 2015

Most likely scenario: Warmer than typical over the northwest and northern plains

Temperature Precipitation

No clear trend foreseenover the northwest. Dry

northern Rockies

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation OutlookJanuary through March 2016

Temperatures Precipitation

Most likely scenario:Dry north, wet south

Most likely scenario: Unusually warm temperatures through

winter over the far west

Dec & Jan 2015-2016

NWCC Predictive Services outlook :

December-March 2015-2016

The northwest geographic area is out of fire season. The incidence of large, costly, fires is

historically low after October. Even during periods of low rainfall in winter, the risk of large

naturally ignited fires is minimal.

Next Outlook:

Early January 2016