NORTHERN IRELAND’S PULSE
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Transcript of NORTHERN IRELAND’S PULSE
NORTHERN IRELAND’S PULSE
Published May 2011
52%40%
27%
8%
7%
4%
38%51%
68%
Up 13%
In the eight months from June of last year, there has been considerable erosion of the sense of financial well being in Northern Ireland. The majority of the population now regard themselves as being worse off, although not as gloomy as in ROI, the experience of an additional 1 in 8 people has worsened
2
Better off
Same
Worse off
June 2010 February 2011 January 2011
Don’t know 1% 1% 1%
Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland
Are you personally better off, worse off, or in the same position as you were this time last year?
47%38% 31%
17%
11%11%
29%41%
52%
Up 12%
Looking to the future people in NI are somewhat more hopeful, with 1 in 10 expecting (or hoping) that next year things will be better. Nevertheless this sense of hope has declined by almost a half and again 1 in 8 are looking to the future with a greater sense of gloom than had been the case last year. Although the gloomy outlook for the future is more deep set in ROI, the optimists are as prevalent in both regions
3
Better off
Same
Worse off
June 2010 February 2011 January 2011
Don’t know 7% 11% 6%
Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland
This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off, or in the same situation as you are now?
25% 23% 29%
12%8%
12%
53%62%
54%Up 9%
Moving from the personal to the macro picture for the region as a whole, the sense of pessimism becomes more entrenched. Almost two thirds expect that the NI economy is likely to worsen; probably in the context of awaited public sector cuts and other austerity measures. In this respect the outlook for the local economy is perceived as significantly more gloomy in NI compared to ROI where it may be that people believe they are turning the corner and that the worst is over
4
Improve
Same
Get worse
June 2010 February 2011 January 2011
Don’t know 10% 7% 5%
Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland
Present economic situation of the country is likely to improve, remain the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
28% 30% 23%
24% 15% 30%
35% 40% 37%
Down 9%
Despite the exhortations that spending is essential for the growth of the economy, 2 in 5 people consider that now is a time to postpone any unnecessary purchases. This saving, rather than spending sentiment has increased only slightly, however the polar sentiment of exploiting market sentiments has shrunk considerably. There is a stark contrast in sentiment North & South of the border, where in NI we are twice as likely to be cautious about current spending
5
Good time to buy
Someplace in between
Good time to wait
Don’t know
June 2010 February 2011 January 2011
12% 14% 10%
Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland
Considering availability and cost of things as well as your present financial circumstance do you think now is a good time to buy things, you want or need, a good time to wait or someplace in between?
74%
43%
29%
0.11
0.3
0.43
Wrong Track Right Direction
Northern Ireland
Jun 2010
Feb 2011
Republic of Ireland
Jan 2011
Don’t know
28%
27%
14%
Do you feel things in NI are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have on the wrong track?
While many are unsure about the direction things are going in Northern Ireland, views have certainly changed for the worse since June 2010. Opinion is now much more heavily on the pessimistic side, albeit that the balance of sentiment is less strongly pessimistic in NI than in ROI, where we are three times more likely to think that we are headed in the right direction
Series130% 20% 7%
17% 22%18%
19%31%
68%
17%12%
3%
1%1%
1%
Very good
Good
Neither good nor poor
Poor
Very poor
Northern Ireland
Jun 2010 Feb 2011
Republic of Ireland
Jan 2011
How good or poor is the Assembly’s handling of the current economic situation?
People in Northern Ireland are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with how the Assembly is handling the current economic situation, with more than half thinking the Assembly is doing a poor job. This critical sentiment has almost doubled in the 8 months from mid 2010. People in ROI are very much more critical with almost everyone believing the government to be doing a very poor job
Which, if any, of the following have happened to someone in your household recently?
Almost a third of NI households have experienced a loss of earnings, with redundancies now more common than pay freezes. In this respect the long term impact of the continued recession is evident with businesses being provoked into reducing wage bills by loosing people rather than curtailing wages or working hours
Had pay cut in work
Employer has cut working hours
Had pay freeze
Made redundant/lost job
4%
7%
7%
12%
2%
8%
10%
10%
Jun-10 Feb-11
NORTHERN IRELAND’S PULSE
Published May 2011