North Central Texas Thinking Ahead
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Transcript of North Central Texas Thinking Ahead
North Central Texas Council of Governments
North Central TexasThinking Ahead
Donna CoggeshallNorth Central Texas Council of Governments
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Population: Past, Present, and Future
1900: 0.4 million
2010: 6.4 million
2040: 10.5 million
Figures are for the 12-county MPA
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking AheadDevelopment Form
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005 – 2040 Growth
2005 2040 ChangePercent Change
People 5.8 10.5 4.7 82.5%
Jobs 3.6 6.6 3.0 82.3%
all figures are rounded and in millions
12-County Area
The 12-County Area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise CountiesPopulation figures do not include people living in group quarter such as jail, dorms, or nursing homes.
compound annual growth rate: 1.7%
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005 – 2040 Growth
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
12-County Area
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
1200000012-County Area
Population Employment
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005 – 2040 GrowthCounty share of
projectedpopulation
growthWise
Parker
Hood
Johnson
Tarrant
Ellis
Dallas
Kaufman
Hunt
CollinDenton
Rockwall
0.9%
30.5%
12.6% 18.3%
20.8%
1.7%
2.6%
2.9%3.2%1.6%
2.3%2.7%
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005 – 2040 GrowthCounty share of
projectedemployment
growthWise
Parker
Hood
Johnson
Tarrant
Ellis
Dallas
Kaufman
Hunt
CollinDenton
Rockwall
1.1%
27.5%
8.7% 12.6%
36.7%
1.5%
1.9%
2.6%3.1%0.8%
2.1%1.4%
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
ProjectionsSummarized
by Market
Hunt
Johnson El l is
R o c k w a l l
Kaufman
Da l las
Denton
Col l in
Hood
TarrantParker
Wise
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005-2040 Population Growth
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005-2040 Population Growth
McKinney
Frisco/Legacy
Alliance/North Fort
Worth
WesternTarrant County
Southeastern Tarrant County
Las Colinas
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
ProjectionsSummarized
by Market
Hunt
Johnson El l is
R o c k w a l l
Kaufman
Da l las
Denton
Col l in
Hood
TarrantParker
Wise
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005-2040 Employment Growth
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
2005-2040 Employment Growth
190/DNT
North Central
Corridor
Dallas CBD/Baylor/Uptown
I-20
Las Colinas
Brookhollow/Central
Stemmons
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Development Form
2040
2005
Source: NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
1,100 new schools
44 new hospitals
470,000 new
multi-family units
70 million more sq ft of
class A office space
1 million new homes
350 new neighborhood retail centers
14 new malls
What Does It Mean?
Mobility 2035
North Central Texas Council of Governments
For More Information:
www.nctcog.org
Donna Coggeshall817-695-9168
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Economy
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Economic Ranking - GDP
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
(millions of current dollars)
Metropolitan Area 2001 2010
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 898,039 1,280,517
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 506,513 735,743
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 396,279 532,331
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 264,478 425,167
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 230,404 384,603
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 255,038 374,081
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 241,831 346,932
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 230,363 325,927
Other Major Texas Metros
Austin-Round Rock, TX 53,497 86,029
San Antonio, TX 52,324 82,036
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Economic RecessionsStart (quarter) End (quarter) Duration
in Months
February 1945(I) October 1945 (IV) 8
November 1948(IV) October 1949 (IV) 11
July 1953(II) May 1954 (II) 10
August 1957(III) April 1958 (II) 8
April 1960(II) February 1961 (I) 10
December 1969(IV) November 1970 (IV) 11
November 1973(IV) March 1975 (I) 16
January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6
July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16
July 1990(III) March 1991 (I) 8
March 2001 (I) November 2001 (IV) 8
December 2007 (IV) June 2009 (II) 18
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
U.S. Texas DFW MSA Tarrant County
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
DFW Major EmployersName
Employees on Site Sector
American Airlines/AMR 11,709 Transportation/Warehousing
NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base 11,350 Public Administration
Lockheed Martin 10,500 Manufacturing
HP/EDS 10,000 Scientific/Technical
Texas Instruments HQ 9,800 Manufacturing
UT Southwestern Medical Center 8,545 Health Care/Social Assistance
University of North Texas 7,762 Education
Parkland Health & Hospital System 6,900 Health Care/Social Assistance
Medical City Dallas Hospital 6,000 Health Care/Social Assistance
Nortel Networks 6,000 InformationSource: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Tarrant County Major EmployersName
Employees on Site Sector
American Airlines/AMR 11,709 Transportation/Warehousing
NAS Fort Worth Joint Reserve Base 11,350 Public Administration
Lockheed Martin 10,500 Manufacturing
UTA 5,300 Education
Burlington Northern Santa Fe 4,900 Transportation/Warehousing
JPS Health Network 4,600 Health Care/Social Assistance
AMR Corporation 4,000 Transportation/Warehousing
Texas Health Harris Methodist 3,968 Health Care/Social Assistance
Bell Helicopter Textron 3,820 Manufacturing
City of Arlington 3,500 Public AdministrationSource: NCTCOG Development Monitoring Program
North Central Texas Council of Governments
State Data Center Projections
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
A More Diverse Region
Source: Texas State Data Center
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Source: Texas State Data Center
Less than 18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65 plus
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
And a more Mature One
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Tarrant County Population Projection Scenarios
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20401,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,500,000.0
4,000,000.0
4,500,000.0
1,446,219.01,553,725.0
1,662,201.01,776,624.0
1,895,533.02,020,545.0
2,152,155.02,290,615.0
2,437,327.0
Zero Net Migration (0.0)
Lowered Migration (0.5)
Unchanged Migration (1.0)
Recent Migration Trends (2000-2007)
Zero net migration (0.0) assumes that immigration and outmigration are equal. Lowered migration (0.5) assumes net migration rates that are one-half those experienced in the 1990s. Unchanged migration (1.0) assumes that trends in age, sex and race/ethnicity experienced in the 1990s will continue. Recent migration trend (2000-2007) takes into account post-2000 trends in migration rates, age, sex, and race/ethnicity composition. Source: Texas State Data Center
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Tarrant County Population Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: Texas State Data Center
North Central Texas Council of Governments
Thinking Ahead
Tarrant County Age Structure Projections
Under 55-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Females in 2000
Males in 2000
Females in 2040
Males in 2040
Number of People
Age
Grou
p
Source: Texas State Data Center