North Carolina Competitiveness · The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012 182,905 16,530 92,531 86,962...
Transcript of North Carolina Competitiveness · The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012 182,905 16,530 92,531 86,962...
“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth” Mike Tyson
The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012
182,905
16,530
92,531 86,962
30,685
6,119 8,338
30,229
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Textiles Tobacco App/Cut Sew Furniture
1990
2012
Source: NCESC.com
The loss of about 80% of our traditional manufacturing jobs
NC Employment Changes By Sector 2000-2012
1%
-9%
-30% -26%
-42%
3%
0%
-13% -18%
18%
1%
35% 27%
40%
28% 28%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total
Agricu
lture
Min
ing
Co
nstru
ction
Man
ufactu
ring
Wh
olesale
Retail
Trans/W
are
Info
Finan
ce/Ins
Real Estate
Pro
f/Tech
Edu
cation
Health
Art/En
ter
Acco
m/Fo
od
Source: QCEW County Sector Data
Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted
NC Employment Growth
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source:NCESC.com Jan Annual Employment
Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Job Growth 2000-2012
-1.8%
-21.4%
5.4%
-9.9%
9.2%
-2.6% -0.9%
6.4%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8
Source: QCEW County Sector Data
NC Real GDP By Industry 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1% 3%
18%
11%
3% 4%
22%
10%
1%
7%
3% 2%
15%
5% 4%
11% 13%
5% 4%
20%
11%
1%
7%
3% 2%
14%
NC South
Source: Georgetown Public Policy Institute,
Carnevale and Smith, July 2012
Prosperity Zone Comparisons Total Manufacturing Growth 2000-2012
-46.7%
-53.1%
-41.4%
-46.1%
-33.8% -36.4%
-42.6%
-25.4%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8
Source: QCEW County Sector Data
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes August 2012 to August 2013
0.7%
1.0%
1.8%
2.3%
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
1.9%
1.7%
0.6%
1.9%
1.2%
2.5%
0.9% 1.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, Nov, 2013 Measured Aug 2012- Aug 2013
Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes
13,300
12,200
131,400
91,600
21,300 38,900
43,300
36,600 20,400
66,700
9,800
35,200 32,200
274,700
33,300
7,600
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured May 2012 to May 2013
Southern States Per Capita Income 1990-2012 (% Different from Nation Change)
7.5%
20.5%
-13.0% -10.7%
7.5%
39.2%
8.5%
1.5%
31.5%
-5.1%
22.0%
-4.3%
6.7%
19.7%
11.2%
18.2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
U.S. Change 120.6% Inflation 73%
NC Per Capita Income Compared to U.S. 1990-2012
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
United States
NC
Source: bber, University of New Mexico
Southern States Real Personal Income Change 2011
1.6%
2.6%
2.2%
3.0%
2.6%
2.1%
2.5%
1.7%
1.3%
2.7%
4.1%
1.9% 2.1%
4.3%
2.9%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: BLS, June 2013
U.S. Change 2.7%
Southern States Private Sector GDP Growth 2000-2011
15.4% 17.1%
18.3%
9.7% 10.0%
16.1%
24.4%
5.8%
9.7%
17.9%
20.9%
10.7%
16.8%
30.7%
25.1%
7.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: BEA July 2013
Southern States Manufacturing GDP Growth 2000-2011
3.2%
-2.7%
0.9%
-1.2%
0.5%
5.4%
2.4%
-1.9%
0.5%
2.9%
1.4%
0.0%
1.8%
7.9%
0.5%
-2.2%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: BEA July 2013
GDP/Capita Changes in the NC 1997-2011
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
NC USA
Source: BEA, Oct 2012
Major Global Trends Impacting Competitiveness
Urbanization We Are Becoming A World Where
People Live in Urban Regions
U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Metro Non-Metro
Source: Census
80%
Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities
of 1 million or more
In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 86% of all jobs are in metropolitan areas
Southern States % of Population Rural 2010
41% 44%
9%
25%
42%
27%
13%
30%
51%
34% 34% 34% 34%
15%
25%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: U.S. Census 2010
NC Gross State Product 2011
Charlotte 25%
Piedmont Triad 14%
Research Triangle 23%
Wilmington 3%
Hickory 3%
Asheville 3%
Fayetteville 4%
Other Metros 6%
Non-Metro 19%
Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013
2013 Ranking for NC Metropolitan and Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Of 366 Metropolitan Areas Top Third (7) Middle Third (3) Bottom Third (4)
Of 576 Micropolitan Areas Top Third (8) Middle Third (4) Bottom Third (14)
Source: Policom.com, 2013
Economic Strength Rankings 2013 (NC)
(Annual Rank of the 366 Metro Areas)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Charlotte
Raleigh
Durham
Fayetteville
Wilmington
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Asheville
Hickory
Source: Policom Corporation, 2013
Global Interdependence
State Goods Exports Per Capita 2012
$4,049
$2,584
$3,437 $3,618
$5,043
$13,724
$2,002 $2,310
$3,946
$2,948
$1,724
$5,345 $4,821
$10,183
$2,228
$6,124
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source:2010-2012 data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade
Technology
McKinsey & Company Disruptive Technologies: May 2013
Energy Mobile Internet
Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics
Robotics, Cloud, Digital-intelligence, 3D Printing
State Technology and Science Index 2012
30
49
38
26
45 44
2
29
50
21
40 43
35
19
6
48
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: Milken Institute April 2013
79 Indicators in R &D, Risk Capital, Entrepreneurial infrastructure, Human Capital, Tech and Science Workforce, and Tech Concentration and Dynamism
North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States
25
25
23
26
10
0 10 20 30 40 50
R &D
Risk Capital
Human Capital
Tech & Science Workforce
Tech Concentration
Source: Milken Institute April 2013
North Carolina Component Rankings of the 50 States 2010 & 2013
21
25
25
23
26
10
13
16
8
26
15
11
0 10 20 30 40 50
Overall
R &D
Risk Capital
Human Capital
Tech & Science Workforce
Tech Concentration
Source: Milken Institute April 2013
The Talent Bar
US Adults Years School Completed
76%
14%
5% 5%
31% 37%
15% 17% 13%
31% 26%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA
Degree –Attainment Rate By Southern State 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
32%
28%
37% 36%
30% 28%
45%
36%
30%
38%
32%
35%
32% 34%
44%
26%
Source: Lumina Foundation, March 2012
Source: Economicmodeling, Joshua Wright, Oct 3, 2013
Southern States Percentage of New Jobs 2010-2013 Paying Middle Wage
16.0%
18.0% 17.0%
22.0%
30.0% 29.0%
22.0%
17.0%
10.0%
22.0%
32.0%
29.0%
24.0% 25.0%
14.0%
19.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: The Atlantic, Joshua Wright, Oct, 2013
Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate
15.9%
19.0% 19.5%
17.0%
19.1% 19.1%
20.4%
10.1%
15.8%
22.6%
17.9% 17.2%
18.9% 18.3% 18.5%
11.5%
18.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July 2013
PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)
Southern States Percentage of People Living Below the Poverty Rate 1983 (Blue) & 2013 (Red)
15%
23% 22%
15%
19% 18%
22%
27%
16% 17%
21% 20%
11%
16%
19% 20%
17%
19% 19% 20%
23%
18% 17%
19% 18%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
USA AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA
Source: US Census, American Fact Finder, July
2013,SGPB Profile of the South, 1986
PERCENT OF PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LEVEL IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (FOR WHOM POVERTY STATUS IS DETERMINED)
Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 5 Years
-6.8%
-0.4%
-15.9%
-10.1%
0.6%
3.3%
-8.5%
-5.0% -5.1%
-8.0%
5.7%
-7.9%
-2.1%
9.8%
-2.6%
-0.2%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013
Southern States Housing Price Appreciation Last 12 month
2.4% 2.1%
10.5% 10.8%
1.9%
5.1% 4.7%
3.3%
4.7% 5.1% 5.3%
3.2%
4.7%
6.7%
5.3%
2.9%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV
Source: FHFA Price Index, period ending 06/2013
Today’s Persistent New Reality The economy changed
The competition changed
Locational factors changed
The U.S. workforce has changed
The talent demands changed
Life cycles have changed
Tools have changed
Customer (talent & companies) demands/expectations changed
The pace of change and everything else changed
Recommendations Align activities around a common plan, measure
everything
Decide on a spatial strategy
Build great cities
Focus on education-job skills alignment
Increase workforce training capacity at the Community Colleges with a goal of national differentiation
Focus on growth clusters where we currently have a competitive advantage
Recommendations
Global is where the growth is, increase trade resources and grow export base (more companies exporting more to more places)
Double down on the military, understand the military future
Tell a compelling story
Aspire for NC to be a U.S. leader in Economic Development thinking, innovation, and execution