North American Drought Briefing For Jan & Nov 2007 to Jan 2008
description
Transcript of North American Drought Briefing For Jan & Nov 2007 to Jan 2008
1
North American Drought BriefingFor Jan & Nov 2007 to Jan 2008
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAAFebruary 14, 2008
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
2
Partners & ContributorsCPC: Kingtse Mo, Wanru Wu, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yun Fan, Huug van den Dool, Wei Shi
EMC: NLDAS Team: Ken Mitchell, Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei
EMC: NAEFS Team: Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu
NASA/GSFC: Brian Cosgrove, Chuck Alonge
Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Lifeng Luo, Justin Scheffield
Univ. of Washington: Andy Wood, Dennis Lettenmaier
Web Masters: Viviane Silva, Joe Harrison
Project Funded by NOAA CPPA
3
P from Nov 2007-Jan 2008
California: Strong intraseasonal oscillations
Southeast: Dec had some rain along the Gulf coast. No rain in Jan. Drought continues
Texas and Southern Plains: Drought is developing
Colorado: Rain in both Dec and Jan
Nov 2007-Jan2008
4
SPI3:
•The Northern central US is getting dryer
•Texas: drought started to develop.
•California had some rain ( so less dry) in comparison with last month.
In the long term SPI6 or higher Severe drought still exists in the Southeast including parts of Florida.Drought D0:SPI < -0.8
Moderate drought D1: -0.9 to -1.2
Severe drought D2: -1.3 to -1.5
Extreme drought D3: -1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional drought D4: SPI< -2 Ref: Svoboda et al. (2002)
5
Soil moisture percentiles NASA (29-yr clim) Cosgrove and Alonge
Southeast: dry
Pacific Northwest: Wet
Texas: getting dryer
Ohio, northern Plains : wet
Ensemble SM mean(10-yr clim)
Total SM percentile from RR (29-yr clim)
MosaicNoah
6
SM Percentiles at Different Levels Based on RR
Texas and Dakota : dryness from 10cm to 1m, but into deep soil yet.
Southeast: SM dryness to the deep level
Drought D0:SM < 20% Moderate drought D1: 10-20%Severe drought D2: 5-10%Extreme drought D3: 2-5%Exceptional drought D4: <2%
Ref: Svoboda et al. (2002)
7
Monthly Streamflow Conditions
Southwest and mid-Atlantic states: dry
Northeast and Ohio Valley: wet
Southern Plains: getting dryer
California: coast normal & inland dry
8
SRI3 and SRI 6 U. Washington – Andy Wood
Standardized runoff index SRI
SRI3
SRI6
In comparison with the SPIs, they all suggest:
1. Southeast: severe drought
2. Texas: drought started to develop (only appears in spi3 and sri3, not spi6 or sri6 longer)
3. SRI shows California drought.
1955-2005
9
Snow Water Equivalent (mm/day)
NLDAS does not agree over the western mountain region: RR, Noah, VIC are positive and mosaic is negative
All shows negative anomalies over the Northeastern region
10
Weekly precipitation
2-8 Feb 2008
More precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, the Southeast is still very dry
Weekly soil moisture anom ensemble
11
Hot Spots
• California: Rainfall does not entirely influenced by the cold ENSO signal because of the strong MJO.
• Southeast drought: any relief in sight?
• Texas and southern Plains: Will cold ENSO make it worse?
12
MJO and California Rainfall
150E Cal PNW
13
SSTs for Drought over the Southern Plains and the Southeast
Pickup drought events based on SM percentiles over RFC10 (S-Plains) and RFC12 (Southeast) respectively
Make the composites of SSTA based on events
Cold SSTAs in the central Pac;
Warm SSTAs in the Atlantic and the N-Pac
Data source (SM) VIC 1915-2006 Andy wood
SST ersst: 1915-2006
14
SSTAs for Jan 2008
The ENSO forecasts indicate that the cold ENSO event will continue for the next 3 months.
The Atlantic SSTAs are decreasing (slowly since Nov).
15
Because the land-atmosphere coupling is strong over the Southern Plains, the drought events last longer in comparison with droughts over the SE .
Using the VIC data (from 1915 on), we identify events
1917 May lasted 20 mos
1952 Jun Lasted 36 mos
1963 Apr lasted 16 mos
Most recent one was 2005 lasted 9 mos
Regional SM percentile Time Series
16
Regional total Soil moisture percentiles
Time series
Overall, the duration for droughts in RFC12 (Southeast) is shorter than droughts in the RFC10 area.
The longest drought occurred in 1954. It lasted for 14 months
17
Cold ENSO signalNAEFS Week1 and Week2 Fcsts
18
CFS Downscaling Princeton UJan 2008
Feb 2008
Mar2008
Forecasts started from Jan 2008
19
ESP Forecasts ENSO Based IC 20080203
1 month lead
2 month lead
3 month lead
Total SM Percentile Forecasts
University of Washington - Andy Wood
20
Runoff Percentiles Forecasts ICs 200802101 month
2 months
3 months
University of Washington - Andy Wood
Southeast and Texas dryness continue for 1-2 months
The upper Missouri basin will get dryer
21
Summary• Southeast: Drought is likely to continue.• California: The MJO has strong influence on
rainfall. The convection related to the MJO does not in favor of rainfall in the next 15 days or so.
• Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and the Ohio Valley: likely to be wet.
• Drought is developing over the Southern Plains.• There is indication of dryness in south and north
Dakota and part of Minnesota. • Areas needed to be monitored carefully:
California and Southeast, Texas, Dakotas
22
Thanks for New Products
• Brian Cosgrove and Chuck Alonge:
Soil moisture percentiles based on 20+ year climatology (1979 on) from Mosaic and Noah
• Andy Wood: SRI plots for runoff and SRI forecasts
• Happy Valentine’s day!!!