Norges Bank’s regional network 3/2016 charts · May 2016 SOUTH SOUTH WEST NORTH WEST MID- NORWAY...
Transcript of Norges Bank’s regional network 3/2016 charts · May 2016 SOUTH SOUTH WEST NORTH WEST MID- NORWAY...
![Page 1: Norges Bank’s regional network 3/2016 charts · May 2016 SOUTH SOUTH WEST NORTH WEST MID- NORWAY IN- LAND EAST 7a Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round Source:](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022060313/5f0b46547e708231d42fb55a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Norges Bank’s regional network
Survey 2016 3, National Charts
Interviews carried out 4 - 26 August
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-3
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Past 3 months Next 6 months
1 Output growth. AggregatedPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale
¹ The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: freshand useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5-4-3-2-1012345
-10-8-6-4-20246810
Oil service industry (old series)*Domestically-oriented manufacturingExport industry**
Domestically-oriented oil service industry***Export-oriented oil service industry****
2 Output growth. Manufacturing and oil service industryPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale
* Manufacturing enterprises with deliveries to the petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf Œ terminated series (2003-2014).** Up to and including the 4/2014 survey, this series also contained petroleum-specific deliveries of goods to other countries. These deliveries are excluded as from the 1/2015 survey.*** Includes petroleum-specific deliveries of goods and services to the Norwegian market.****Includes petroleum-specific deliveries of goods and services to other countries. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-3
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Retail tradeCommercial services*
Household servicesConstruction
3 Output growth. Retail trade, services and constructionPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale
* Up to and including the 4/2014 survey, this series contains some petroleum-specific deliveries of services. These deliveries are excluded as from the 1/2015 survey. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
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Capacity constraints¹ Labour supply²
4 Capacity constraints and labour supply. AggregatedPercent
¹ Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problemsaccommodating an increase in demand.² Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
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ManufacturingConstructionRetail trade
ServicesOil service industry
5 Capacity constraints¹. All sectorsPercent
¹ Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problemsaccommodating an increase in demand. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
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ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sector
Retail tradeServicesOil service industry
6 Labour supply¹. All sectorsPercent
¹ Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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7 Capacity constraints. All regions. AggregatedShare of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodatingan increase in demand
NO
RTHMay 2016
SOUTH
SOUTH WEST
NORTH WEST
MID- NORWAY
IN- LAND
EAST
7a Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
NO
RTHAugust 2016
< 15%
15-24%
25-34%
35-44%
45-54%
55-64%
65%>
SOUTH
SOUTH WEST
NORTH WEST
MID- NORWAY
IN- LAND
EAST
7b Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Last round
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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8 Labour supply. All regions. AggregatedShare of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply
NO
RTHMay 2016
SOUTH
SOUTH WEST
NORTH WEST
MID- NORWAY
IN- LAND
EAST
8a Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
NO
RTHAugust 2016
< 5%
5-14%
15-24%
25-34%
35-44%
45-54%
55%>
SOUTH
SOUTH WEST
NORTH WEST
MID- NORWAY
IN- LAND
EAST
8b Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Last round
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4
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9 Investment growth. AggregatedExpected change in investment next12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-4
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ManufacturingRetail tradeServices
Local government and hospital sectorOil service industry
10 Investment growth. All sectorsExpected change in investment next 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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Past 3 months Next 3 months
11 Employment growth. AggregatedPast 3 months and next 3 months¹Percent
¹ Mixed indicator until 2004. Split into ’past 3 months’ andnext 3 months’ as from 2005. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-4
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ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sector
Retail tradeServicesOil service industry
12 Employment growth. All sectorsPast 3 months and next 3 months¹Percent
¹ Mixed indicator until 2004. Split into ’past 3 months’ andnext 3 months’ as from 2005. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
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ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sectorRetail trade
ServicesOil service industryAggregated
13 Annual wage growth. Aggregated and all sectorsContacts’ estimates for each year¹Index² - left-hand scale, percent - right-hand scale
¹ As from 2010, the first observation for wage growth is collected in November the previous year. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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RN (autumn previous year)RN winterRN spring
RN summerRN autumnTBU¹
14 Annual wage growth. AggregatedTechnical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements (TBU) compared withnetwork contacts’ estimates (RN). Percent
¹ For 2010: Wage growth for employees at enterprises affiliated to anemployer organisation and in the public administration includingthe health trusts. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5
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15 Selling prices. AggregatedChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5
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Domestically oriented manufacturingExport industry
Domestically-oriented oil service industryExport-oriented oil service industry
16 Selling prices. Manufacturing and oil service industryChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5
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Retail tradeCommercial services
Household servicesConstruction
17 Selling prices. Retail trade, services and constructionChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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18 Selling prices 12 months ahead. AggregatedExpected change in rise in pricesDiffusion index¹
¹ Share that expects higher rise in prices + (1/2 * share that expects prices to remain unchanged) Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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Business sector² Household sector³
19 Selling prices next 12 months. Business and household sectorExpected change in rise in pricesDiffusion index¹
¹ Share that expects higher rise in prices + (1/2 * share that expects rise in prices to remain unchanged).² Manufacturing, oil service industry, construction, commercial services.³ Retail trade, household services. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
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20 Profitability. AggregatedChange in operating margins past 3 months compared to same period a year earlier.Index¹
¹ The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: freshand useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network