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Fin Kidland i Edvard Preskot dobitnici su Nobelove nagrade za ekonomske nauke u 2004. godini. Kako je tada saopštila

švedska Kraljevska akademija nauka nagrađeni su za svoj rad koji se bavio određivanjem konzistencije ekonomske politike i sila koje podstiču poslovne cikluse širom sveta. Njihov rad je pokazao da su osnovne sile kretanja poslovnih ciklusa i projektovanje ekonomske politike ključna područja makroekonomskog istraživanja. Ova dva naučnika su znatno doprineli razvoju oba sektora, ne samo u makroekonomskoj analizi, već i praktično u monetarnoj i poreskoj politici u mnogim zemljama.

Kada je u pitanju v r e m e n s k a konzistentnost e k o n o m s k e politike, Kidland i Preskot su dali više pravaca rešavanja ovog pitanja. Tako na primer, istraživanja su pokazala da ako centralna banka podigne svoju reputaciju

boreći se protiv inflacije, može pozitivno uticati na smanjenje očekivane inflacije kod privrede i stanovništva. Rezultati ovih istraživanja uticali su na reforme centralnih banaka u razvijenim privredama Engleske, Švedske, Novog

Zelanda, Australije, Kanade itd. gde je sa nezavisnošću u tekućem vođenju monetarne politike uvedeno i obavezno ciljanje niske inflacije. Ovaj trend se proširio i na zemlje u razvoju: Poljska, Češka, Brazil i Južna Afrika.

V e r o v a t n o najznačajniji uticaj

njihovog istraživanja ostvaren je kod koncipiranja Evropske centralne banke. Delegiranje monetarne politike konzervativnom i nezavisnom centralnom bankaru - Evropskoj centralnoj banci, bio je način da se

zemlje koje su sklone inflaciji dovedu u red (poput Italije i Španije). Pored institucionalne

nobelove zvezde

DOPRINOS STVARANJU

I RAZVOJU EKONOMSKE

POLITIKE I FINANSIJSKIH

INSTITUCIJA

Fin Kidland i Edvard PreskotNobelova nagrada za 2004.

Finn E. Kydland

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Finn Kydland and Edward Presco� are the laureates of the 2004 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. As the Swedish

Royal Academy of Sciences announced at the time, they were awarded for their work in the field of determining the consistency of economic policy and forces driving the business cycles worldwide. Their work indicated that main forces of business cycles trends and economic policy planning are the key fields in macroeconomic research. These two scientists significantly contributed to the development of both areas, not only in macroeconomic analysis, but also in practical implementation of monetary and fiscal policy in many countries.

When it comes to time consistency in economic policy, Kydland and Presco� offered several

ways to solve this issue. So, for instance, their research showed that if a central bank increases its reputation by fighting inflation, it can have positive impact on the reduction of expected inflation in corporate and retail sectors. The results of these studies influenced the reforms of central banks in the developed economies of England, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, etc., where, alongside independence in current monetary policy management, mandatory low inflation targeting was introduced. This trend spread to the developing countries, too, such as Poland, Czech Republic, Brazil and South Africa.

Probably the most significant impact of their research was achieved regarding the establishment of the European Central Bank. Assigning monetary policy to a conservative and independent central banker - European Central Bank, was the way to bring the countries prone to inflation (like Italy or Spain) into order. In addition to the institutional independence from the governments of the Monetary Union members, the European

Edward C. Presco�

nobel stars

CONTRIBUTION TO THE CREATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC POLICY AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Presco�Nobel Prize for 2004

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nezavisnosti od vlada članica monetarne unije, Evropska centralna banka ima i zadatu visinu inflacije.

Jedan od pravaca rešavanja problema vremenske konzistentnosti ekonomske politike je i zakonsko definisanje striktnih pravila za monetarnu politiku, na primer onih koja bi obezbedila određenu stopu inflacije ili fiksni devizni kurs. Potpuno eliminisanje diskrecije u vođenju monetarne politike sprečava njene naknadne promene i tako rešava problem vremenske konzistentnosti. Cena ovog rešenja je, međutim, veoma visoka jer ne omogućava da se ublaže nepredvidivi udari, što može voditi velikim padovima proizvodnje i zaposlenosti.

Kidland i Preskot su polazeći od makroekonomskih osnova s jedne strane i šokova na strani ponude s druge strane dali moguće objašnjenje za privredne cikluse. To su 1982. godine učinili spajajući teoriju privrednog rasta sa teorijom privrednih ciklusa.

Želeo da bude menadžer a postao profesor - nobelovac

Kidland je rođen 1943. godine u Norveškoj, na farmi roditelja svoje majke u gradiću Bjerkreim. Odrastao je u malom mestu Søyland, takođe na farmi, sa roditeljima, ocem Martinom koji se bavio prevozom poljoprivrednih proizvoda, pre svega mleka, i majkom Johanom, domaćicom.

Roditeljski dom je napustio u petnaestoj godini da bi pohađao srednju školu. Škola mu je pružila kvalitetno obrazovanje, pogotovu kad je matematika u pitanju. Zahvaljujući visokom proseku koji je postigao u srednjoj školi mogao je da bira koji želi fakultet. Planirao je da uči za inženjera jer mu je matematika išla dobro.

Međutim, dobio je ponudu da se zaposli kao nastavnik u osnovnoj školi u Oltedalu, jer je tada postojao manjak nastavnog kadra u Norveškoj. U ovoj školi proveo je godinu dana i ona je bila veoma važna za njegovu buduću poslovnu orjentaciju. Jedan stariji kolega mu je predložio da upiše kurs iz računovodstva, jer je škola imala problema sa vođenjem poslovnih knjiga. Kolega mu je obećao da će se odmah na tim poslovima zaposliti u ovoj školi. Kurs mu je pomogao da shvati kako biznis funkcioniše i da se upozna sa poslovima o kojima do tada ništa nije znao.

Nakon toga je upisao Norveški fakultet za ekonomiju i poslovnu administraciju jer je želeo da postane menadžer. Profesor sa katedre za ekonomiju ga je zamolio da bude njegov asistent, što je i prihvatio. Život ga je tako, iako je želeo da se bavi biznisom, odveo u sasvim druge vode. Isti profesor ga je, posle izvesnog vremena, pozvao da s njim pređe na Karnegi Melon univerzitet - SAD, ali je svoj odlazak prolongirao zbog ženidbe 1968. godine.

U Ameriku je otišao sa suprugom 1969. godine sa statusom gostujućeg studenta za

doktorske studije na Fakultetu za industrijsku administraciju Karnegi Melon univerziteta. U ovom periodu završio je nekoliko kurseva i bavio se brojnim istraživanjima a u avgustu 1971. godine upoznao je Edvarda Preskota i zainteresovao se za njegova istraživanja o teoriji igara. Postali su prijatelji a njihova saradnja na poslovnom planu bila je plodna i značajna. Preskot je insistirao da bude u odboru kada Kidland bude branio svoj doktorski rad.

Nakon odbrane doktorske disertacije, maja 1973. vraća se u svoj matični fakultet, u Norvešku. Dok je još bio u Americi Preskot ga je upoznao sa radom Boba

Finn E. Kydland prima nagradu od švedskog kralja Carla XVI Gustafa, 10. decembra 2004. godineFinn E. Kydland receiving his Prize from His Majesty the King Carl XVI Gustaf, December 10, 2004

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Central Bank has a set level of inflation.One of the ways to solve the problem of time

consistency in economic policy was to come up with legal definitions of strict monetary policy rules, for instance those that would provide a certain inflation rate or a fixed FX rate. The complete elimination of discretion in managing monetary policy prevents its subsequent changes, thus solving the problem of time consistency. The price of this solution, however, is very high, since it does not enable mitigation of unforeseeable shocks, which may results in huge slumps in production and employment.

Starting from macroeconomic basics on one hand and supply-related shocks on the other hand, Kynland and Presco� provided a possible explanation of economic cycles. They did this back in 1982 by merging the theory of economic growth and theory of economic cycles.

Wanted to be a manager, became a Nobel Prize-winning professor

Kydland was born in 1943 in Norway, on the farm of his mother’s parents in the town of Bjerkreim. He grew up in Søyland, on another farm, with his parents, his father Martin who was hauling agricultural goods, mostly milk, for other farmers, and his mother Johanna, a housewife.

He le� his parent’s home at the age of fi�een in order to a�end a high school. The school provided him a quality education, especially when it comes to math. Thanks to the high point score he achieved in high school, he was able to choose whichever university he wanted. He planned to study for an engineer, since he excelled at math. However, he was offered a teaching position at the elementary school

in Oltedal, because in those days there used to be a shortage of teachers in Norway. He spent one year at this school and it turned out to be very important for his future professional orientation. A senior colleague encouraged him to take a course in accounting, since the school had experienced some difficulties with business book-keeping. The colleague promised to hire him at the school as soon as he completed the course. This experience gave him insight into what it meant to run a business, and helped him get acquainted with subjects he had hitherto known nothing about.

A�er that, he enrolled at the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, because he wanted to become a business manager. A professor from the Department of Economics asked him to become his research assistant, which he accepted. Thus life, although he wanted to go into business, took him into a completely different direction. A�er a while, the same professor asked him to go to Carnegie-Mellon University in the USA with him, but Kydland postponed that move because he got married in 1968.

He and his wife arrived at the United States in 1969. He had the status of a visiting doctoral student at the Graduate School of Industrial Administration at C a r n e r g i e - M e l l o n University. In this period, he completed several courses and conducted numerous studies, and in August 1971 he met Edward Presco� and got interested in his research in the field of game theory. They became friends and their professional cooperation was fruitful and significant. Presco� insisted on being on the commi�ee when Kydland defended his doctoral thesis.

A�er he defended his dissertation, in May

Edward C. Presco� prima nagradu od švedskog kralja Carla XVI Gustafa 10. decembra 2004. godineEdward C. Presco� receiving his Prize from His Majesty the King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden, December 10, 2004

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Lukasa “Evaluacija ekonometrijske politike”. Ova oblast savremene makroekonomije nije bila zastupljena na ovom norveškom fakultetu te je Kidland pozvao Preskota da dođe kao gost, što je on i učinio. Sa porodicom je proveo godinu dana (1974-75.) u Norveškoj. U ovom periodu Kidland učestvuje na brojnim konferencijama i angažovan je na mnogim istraživanjima da bi već 1977. godine uzeo odsustvo i otputovao za SAD. Od tada Norveška više neće biti zemlja njegovog stalnog boravka.

Na univerzitetu Karnegi Melon u Pitsburgu, Pensilvanija, prihvata mesto vanrednog profesora i počinje intenzivno da radi s Preskotom na modelu poslovnih ciklusa. U tom periodu zajedno su pisali i mnoge stručne radove iz ove oblasti. Sem toga, nastavlja da se bavi i međunarodnom makroekonomijom koja je obilovala brojnim zabludama i greškama.

Sa prvom ženom Liv ima četvoro dece: Martija, Eirika, Kamilu i Kari. Kada se, nakon razvoda, ponovo oženio 2004. godine odlazi u Vankuver da tamo živi i bude profesor ekonomije na Univerzitetu Kalifornija u Santa Barbari.

Želeo da bude naučnik a postao profesor - nobelovac

Edvard Preskot rodio se u mestu Glens Falls, Njujork 1940. godine u kući roditelja svoje majke koji su bili nemački emigranti. Majka Matilda bila je bibliotekarka a otac Vilijam inženjer. Detinjstvo je proveo u rodnom gradu sem što je sa porodicom bio 2,5 godine, u toku Drugog svetskog rata, u Bristolu.

U srednjoj školi je bio zaokupljen sportom jer je sve vreme mladosti igrao fudbal, košarku i ragbi. Osim toga, takmičio se i iz matematike. Iako je zbog dobrog uspeha mogao da bira fakultet na kome bi studirao 1958. godine upisao je Swarthmore koledž jer je bio je�iniji i zato što mu je delovao manje zastrašujuće od drugih. Izabrao je da studira fiziku opredeljujući se iz ljubavi prema tom predmetu i jer je želeo da bude naučnik. Ispostavilo se da su mu predavanja bila dosadna jer nisu podrazumevala intelektualnu raspravu, već celog dana boravak u laboratorijama. Odnosno, više je voleo da se bavi kreativnim a ne preciznim poslovima. Nakon tri godine napušta fiziku želeći da

se bavi inženjerskom ekonomijom. Studije nastavlja na Fakultetu operativnih istraživanja (Case Tech) koji se kasnije sjedinio sa Western univerzitetom i dobio novi naziv Case Western. Počinje intenzivno da uči i umesto za 2 godine završava master studije za 15 meseci. Odlazi potom na Karnegi Melon univerzitet radi doktorskih studija i na njemu ostaje tri godine. Tamo se upoznaje sa Bobom Lukasom, novim profesorom koji je za svoj rad dobio Nobelovu nagradu 1995. godine. Lukas je na fakultetu predavao Teoriju kapitala koji je za Preskota bio važan i veoma zanimljiv predmet. Mnogo su razgovarali o ekonomskim pitanjima te će vremenom postati veliki prijatelji.

Nakon ženidbe 1964. godine prelazi na univerzitet Pensilvanija u Filadelfiji. Ima troje dece: Edvarda, Vini i Endija. Godinu dana će provesti u Norveškoj gde je Kidland bio profesor. Kada se vratio u SAD počeo je da predaje predmet “Industrijska organizacija”. Od 1978-79. godine bio je gostujući profesor u Čikagu a onda prelazi na Northwestern univerzitet. U jesen 1981. započeo je saradnju sa Bankom za federalne rezerve u Mineapolisu. Sedam godina kasnije, iako je dobio ponude više fakulteta, odabrao je Univerzitet u Čikagu. Godine 1999. ponovo se vraća u Minesotu a kada se 2003. godine penzionisala njegova supruga ponovo se sele jer Preskot počinje da radi na državnom univerzitetu u Tempeu, Arizona.

Izbor radova / Selection of papers

1. Finn Kydland and Edward Presco�'s Contribution to Dynamic Macroeconomics: The Time Consistency of Economic Policy and the Driving Forces Behind Business Cycles, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, October 2004

2. Kydland, F. and E. Presco�, Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans, Journal of Political Economy, 85 (1977), 473-490

3. Kydland, F. and E. Presco�, Time to build and aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica, 50 (1982), 1345-1371

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1973 Kydland returned to his parent university in Norway. While he was still in the US, Presco� introduced him to a paper by Bob Lucas, titled “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”. This field of modern macroeconomics was not well represented at this Norwegian university, which is why Kydland asked Presco� to visit them, which he did. He spent a year (1974-75) with his family in Norway. In this period, Kydland took part in numerous conferences and was engaged in many studies, only to take a leave in 1977 and travel to the US again. Since then, Norway was never to be the country of his permanent residence.

He accepted an associate-professor position at the Carnegie-Mellon University in Pi�sburg, Pennsylvania, and started working intensively with Presco� on the business cycles model. During that time, they co-authored many academic papers in this field. In addition, he continued to work in the field of international macroeconomics, which had been ripe with puzzles and anomalies.

He has four children with his first wife, Liv: Marty, Eirik, Camilla and Kari. He got divorced and remarried in 2004, a�er which he moved to Vancouver to work as a professor of economics at the University of California at Santa Barbara.

Wanted to be a scientist, became a Nobel Prize-winning professor

Edward Presco� was born in Glenn Falls, New York, in 1940, in the house of his mother’s parents who were German immigrants. His mother Mathilde was a librarian, and his father William an engineer. He spent his childhood in his hometown except for two and a half years during the World War II which he spent living with his family in Bristol, Pennsylvania.

In high school he was preoccupied with sports, and used to play soccer, basketball and football. Apart from that, he took part in math competitions. Although his high point score enabled him to choose the university to study at, in 1958 he went to Swarthmore College because it was less expensive and less intimidating than others. He majored in physics, out of his love for the subject and due to his childhood dream to become a scientist. It turned out that the

lectures were boring to him because they did not involve much intellectual discourse, but day-long laboratories instead. In other words, he preferred to create things, and found it difficult to be meticulous. A�er three years, he abandoned physics in order to do engineering economics. He continued his studies at the graduate school in operations research at Case Tech, which subsequently merged with Western University to become Case Western. He worked intensely and completed the two-year master’s degree program in 15 months. A�er that, he went to Carnegie-Mellon University for doctoral studies where he stayed for three years. It was there that he met Bob Lucas, a freshly minted professor, the 1995 Nobel Laureate in Economics. Lucas taught the capital theory at the University, which was an important and very interesting subject for Presco�. They spent many hours discussing economic issues, and over time became great friends.

A�er he had got married in 1964, he le� to join the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. He has three children: Edward, Wynne, and Andy. He spent one year in Norway, at the Norwegian School of Business and Economics, where Kydland had become a professor. A�er he returned to the USA, he started teaching an industrial organization course. In 1978-79 he was a visiting professor at the University of Chicago, a�er which he went to Northwestern University. In the fall of 1981 he began his association with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Seven years later, although he received offers from several universities, he chose the University of Chicago. In 1999 he returned once again to Minnesota, and in 2003, when his wife retired, they moved to Tempe, Arizona, where Presco� started working at the Arizona State University.

Literatura / References

1. www.nobelprize.org2. Petrović Pavle, Doprinos Fin Kidlanda i Edvard

Preskota dinamičkoj makroekonomiji: Nobelova nagrada za ekonomiju 2004. godine, Ekonomski anali 164, januar - mart 2005., 177-190