NOAA CLIMAS

NASA EOS

NSF SAHRANOAA GAPP

Human Dimensions

Climate and Society: Working with a Nation of Stakeholders

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizonahollyoregon@juno.com

Holly C. Hartmann

NASA HyDIS

Raytheon Synergy

Issue: So Many Stakeholders!Issue: So Many Stakeholders!

Continental Scale: Focus of climate modelers

Watershed/Local Scale: Where impacts happen Where stakeholders exist

Different Scales (time & space)Different IssuesDifferent Stakeholders

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise

• Transferability

• Scalability

• Changed decisions and decision processes

• Public support for climate research

Enabling system-wide change

Sustainability

National PerspectivesNational Perspectives

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise

• Transferability

• Scalability

• Changed decisions and decision processes

• Public support for climate research

Enabling system-wide change

Sustainability

National Perspectives: NOAA RISA ProgramNational Perspectives: NOAA RISA Program

Integrative: researchers/stakeholders, interdisciplinary, end-to-end

Participatory, Iterative: responsive to stake- holder concerns

On-going Process: mutual capacity building & sustainable legacy products

Products: link variability, impacts, response options

Equitable: outcomes benefit participants & equitably so

www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS

Stakeholder Interactions:Multiple TechniquesStakeholder Interactions:Multiple Techniques

One-on-One Interviews

Town Hall Meetings

Conferences and Workshops

Product Evaluation

Group Discussions & Training

www.ispe.arizona.edu/CLIMAS

Poor interactions with users affects:• opportunities for future work• credibility of agencies, institutions and products

“What are your motives?” (agenda)

“How long is your project really going to last?” (failed promises of past projects)

“What did you do with the last survey?” (checking your responsiveness)

Lessons from StakeholdersLessons from Stakeholders

Building Expectations and Trust

• Building trust requires repetition & responsiveness

• Concerns: agendas, science will be used to hurt them

• Effective stakeholder integration generate support for science funding & programs

Efficiency

Work with hydropower agencies & other high-value clients

Develop customized evaluation tools

Transfer to agencies

Equity

Also work with stakeholders affected by changing supplies & policies

Develop tools for knowledge development and diverse decision processes

Provide on-going support of research products and tools

Impact

Work with regulatory & policy agencies

Inform water supply policy via peer-reviewed science & policy analysis

Project Objectives Affect TacticsProject Objectives Affect Tactics

Common across all groups: climate vs. weather

Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation

Understand implications of “normal” vs. “EC” vs. “unknown” forecasts

Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

Unique among stakeholders

Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics

Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics

Role of of forecasts in decision making

Common across many, but not all, stakeholders

Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products

Have difficulty placing forecasts in historical context

Role & Use of Climate Info & Forecasts

Re-Interpreted Forecast Products Often WrongRe-Interpreted Forecast Products Often Wrong

New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp OutlooksNew Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks

New Formats: Local Seasonal Temp OutlooksNew Formats: Local Seasonal Temp Outlooks

Forecast formats affect

the ease, accuracy, and reliability of

interpretation - and correct

interpretation is essential.

Climate Test Bed: process for ensuring

communication

effectiveness

http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

Initially for NWS CPC climate forecastsAdding water supply forecasts

Six elements in our webtool:• Exploring Forecast Progression• Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials• Historical Context• Forecast Performance• Use in Decision Making • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research

20042003 2005

Historical Context for Forecasts: Analogs

A

Frequency of Actual Forecasts

F

D

B

E

C

Forecast Forecast

# Issued Coverage

A JFM JJAS

B JFM JJAS

C JFM ONDJ

D ASO ONDJ

E JFM AMJJ

F ASO DJFMAM

temperature precipitation

precipitation precipitation

precipitation precipitation

Temperature: Warm Precipitation: Dry

Will forecasts warn me of an

impending ‘critical’ event?

Given a ‘critical’

forecast, can I trust it?

Probability of Detection

False Alarm Rate

Forecasts issued JFM, covering JJAS

Issues for Stakeholders

- too much information

- can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information

Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

Ease of Use Profile and Projects: save a history of your work on each "project", so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.

Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

Accessibility Report Generation

• create PDF reports of your analyses for non-Internet users

• automatically includes legends, data sourcing, contact information, caveats, explanations

• sections for user-customized (value-added) comments

Ease of Use Automated Alerts: using ‘push’ technology to monitor conditions and prompt special notification

Part 1 -- Alert Detection and Notification

• Obtain real-time data

• Test against thresholds

• Notify individuals: email, cell phone

Automated Threshold Alert System

Clarify thresholds

Alert Levels

Yellow = Hiccup

Orange = Heartburn

Red = Heart Attack

Automated Threshold Alert System

Clarify thresholds

Part 2 – Respond, Report, Review: Interactive Website

• Summarize threshold exceedance events: ‘Live Forms’

• Community assessment of event, cause, impacts: ‘Live Forms’

• Archive stable ‘.pdf’ reports for annual review

• Self-management of projects, without software maintenance

Part 3 – New Possibility: Combine CLIDDSS and Alert System

• Monitor products in a portfolio, send ‘alerts’ when condition(s) meet thresholds, initiate field reports

• Field reports via ‘Live Web Form’ or cell phone text messages

• Connects human observations with automated gauges, expands the ‘observation’ network

Lessons Learned: Decision Support Tools

StakeholdersInformation

needs, understanding,

access Social ScienceEffective

communication

Natural Science

Forecast skill,interpretation Computer

ScienceWeb

programming

• Transferable, scalable tools are possible!

• Focus on knowledge development, not just data & information.

Interactive webtools require major commitment and resources.

Prototypes insufficient!Stakeholders need reliable tools, which require solid software foundation, organized development, sustainability for maintenance and expansion.

The Human Dimension of Integrated Research The Human Dimension of Integrated Research

???

1. Good Intentions

2. Momentary Integration

3. Regression

Physical Science

Social Science

Stake holders

Building expectations: affects credibility of agencies, research

Requires incentives, infrastructure, continuity, stability

Climate and Society: Whose Messages Get Through?