No Yes No Yes Longitudinal & Time Series Cross-Sectional & Panel Data PEW Mobile Phone Galton...
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![Page 1: No Yes No Yes Longitudinal & Time Series Cross-Sectional & Panel Data PEW Mobile Phone Galton Children Height Census Text Sentiment Old Faithful Web Analytics.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022013004/5697bff01a28abf838cbaa3d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
No
YesNo
Yes
Longitudinal & Time Series
Cro
ss-S
ecti
onal
&
Pan
el D
ata
PEW Mobile Phone
Galton Children Height
Census
Text Sentiment
Old Faithful
Web Analytics
Titanic Survivors
Bank Loans
Job Classification
Stock Market
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Predictive Modeling: Case Studies
• Old Faithful• Earthquakes• Flu
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Old Faithful
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Time Interval Between Eruptions
91.2
107.475.0
• 91.2 minutes between eruptions• 8.1 one standard deviation• 16.2 two standard deviations• 91.2 +/- 16.2 min 95%
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107.4
75.0
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Volume
Duration
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Time Interval Until Next Eruptions
90
70
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All predictions are made using a formula that takes into account the length of the previous eruption. The formula used has proven to be accurate, plus or minus 10 minutes, 90% of the time.
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Sensor
CountdownClock
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Down-hole video camera~22 m deep…
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Old Faithful
• Visible, Measureable• Frequent• Repeatable• Single Geyser• Small Area, Same Place
Very Predictable
Non-Critical
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Anything in the Business World that is similar?
• Manufacturing Processes -Statistical Process Control
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Trends: Flu
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Flu - Seasonal
• Annual, Seasonal• Consistent – sort of• Large Regional Area • Can be Critical• Semi-Predictable• Vaccine – Major Strains• Genetic Changes
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plot(stl(beer,s.window="periodic"))
Time Series
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Earthquakes
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Earthquakes: “The Big One”
• Very Critical• Measureable: Seismograph• Large Earthquake Regions• Frequency
– Smaller Ones more Frequent– Big Ones less Frequent
Not Predictable
Very Critical