No Goals at Half-time: What Next for the Millennium Development Goals?

MDG1: Poverty and hunger

Andrew Dorward and Colin Poulton

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Outline

1. The targets

2. Data Issues

3. Achievements

4. Underlying drivers

5. Critical roles of food & agriculture in poor

economies & livelihoods

6. States and markets

The MDG1 targetsTARGET 1.A

Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

TARGET 1.B Achieve full and productive employment and decent

work for all, including women and young people

TARGET 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of

people who suffer from hunger

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Methodological Issues: Poverty• Conceptual difficulties with income poverty• Defining the poverty line

– An arbitrary line!– Depth of poverty?

• Counting those in poverty (data issues)– PPP effects? (+40%)– Numbers, proportions and geographical

distributions: global regions, urban / rural? (urban +10%)

– Consumption data or national accounts? (impact on trends)

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Methodological Issues: EmploymentTARGET 1.B

Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

• % working age in full employment – what is best?

• % people in low paid employment?• % people in vulnerable employment?

• Data frequency & reliability5

Methodological Issues: HungerTARGET 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion

of people who suffer from hunger• Prevalence of under weight children under 5

years (stunting, wasting) (WHO/UNICEF)• Proportion of population below minimum

level of dietary energy consumption (FAO)• Data frequency & reliability

• Different definitions of hunger / food security• No agreed figure for the number of hungry!

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Achievements: Halve poverty incidence?People in extreme poverty (< $ 1.25 /day, 2005 prices)

1990 2005Proportion is on track 41.7% 25.7%But …. Numbers, regions, food prices, urban poverty, data

(Chen & Revallion, 2008

Achievements: Halve poverty incidence?

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People in extreme poverty (< $ 1.25 /day, 2005 prices) 1990 2005

Proportion is on track 41.7% 25.7%

ButNumber 1.8 billion 1.4 billionRegionsSSA 55.7% 50.3% +100 millSouth Asia 48.9% 38.6% + 20 millEastern & SE Asia 56.0% 15.8%LAM 9.7% 8.0%CIS 1.9% 5.4%N Africa, W Asia 3.5% 3.8%Transition SE Europe 0.1% 0.5%

(UN MDG report, 2008, addendum)

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but... required % changes in poverty rates for MDG1

(UN MDG report, 2008)

but .... food prices, urban poverty, recession, data

• Higher food prices may push 100 million people deeper into poverty (Ivanic and Martin 2008, UN)

• Global slowdown• Revised urban poverty lines add 100M to global $1/day poor

(mostly in South Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa) but little effect on trends.

• Rural poverty has been falling faster than urban poverty: 1993-2002 rural poor fell by 148M, urban poor rose 50M (Chen & Ravallion, 2007).

• Poverty rates still twice as high in rural areas, 75% of “$1/day” poor still rural in 2002 (81% in 1993).

• National accounts data lower China poverty rates & gains and hence global gains (Karshenas, 2003)

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but .... Depth of Poverty

Changes in the number of Poor in the Developing World 1990-2004

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(Ahmed et al. 2007)

-22% -15% -33% -16%

Achievements: full & equitable employment?

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Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) a day, 1997 and 2007

(UN MDG report, 2008)

Proportion of men and women own account & contributing family workers in total employment, 2007

Achievements: full & equitable employment?

(UN MDG report, 2008)

Achievements: Halve % of hungry people?

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Proportion of children under age five who are underweight, 1990 & 2006 (%)

X

X

X

?

Y

Y

Y

X

(UN MDG report, 2008)

Achievements: Halve % of hungry people? % of population below minimum dietary energy consumption

•Total numbers?•Food price impacts?

•Rural / urban differences?

(UN MDG report, 2008)

Achievements: Halve % of hungry people? IFPRI global hunger index, 2008

Underlying drivers of MDG1 changes?• Growth and income distribution for

consumption poverty, • Growth: poverty / hunger relations?• Growth explained by institutions & geography• Different stages of growth and basic economic

structures are critical to growth processes & constraints – changing economy & livelihood and sectoral mixes

& interactions• Food and agriculture are critical in poor

economies17

High potential staples

Low potential staples

Broad Role Pro-poor growth Least cost welfare, growth platform

Countries with Minerals

Support growth Subsistence & support growth

Coastal, No minerals

Drive & support growth

Subsistence & support growth

Land lockedNo minerals

Major driver & then supporter

Subsistence

Critical roles of food & agriculture in poor economies & livelihoods

• Importance of food in expenditures• Direct importance of agriculture – income to land & labour• Indirect importance of agriculture • Critical for growth – factor supply & domestic demand for

structural transformations out of agriculture

• Importance of managing structural & policy transitions

• Nutrition, health & education impacts• Challenges

– Food prices– Energy prices– Credit crunch – Recession– Climate change– Policies & investment

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Critical roles of food & agriculture in poor economies & livelihoods

The roles of states and markets• States: institutions and/ or activism?• Critical questions for Growth, Agriculture, & MDG1

(private sector goals for public organisations?)• ‘Conventional’ debates: public goods, market failures,

state failures• Historical experience: ‘kick starting’ markets• Institutional theory: low level traps• Current questions: subsidies; state interventions in

food, fertiliser and finance• Challenges: crises, competing demands (interest

groups, time periods), transitions, stability, probity, efficiency

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No Goals at Half-time: What Next for the Millennium Development Goals?

MDG1: Poverty and hunger

Andrew Dorward and Colin Poulton

Real Commodity prices Jan 2006 to Sept 2008

Source: World Bank Pink Sheets deflated by US CPI