No fool cells here Fuel cell electric vehicles make commercial … · 2015-07-06 · Millennials...
Transcript of No fool cells here Fuel cell electric vehicles make commercial … · 2015-07-06 · Millennials...
©2015 Intelligent Energy Limited The information in this document is the property of Intelligent Energy Limited and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purposes other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Intelligent Energy Limited. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Intelligent Energy Limited, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Intelligent Energy Ltd or any of its subsidiary companies
No fool cells here… Fuel cell electric vehicles make commercial sense for volume car OEMs Henri Winand Chief Executive Intelligent Energy 3rd July 2015
Good afternoon My name is Henri Winand, CEO of Intelligent Energy My objectives are: • Tell you who Intelligent Energy is • Why FCEVs are happening today • Why this is a very big opportunity
IE: • Fuel cell engine technology company • Circa 450 people • HQ in the UK • Operations and commercial offices in the US, Japan, India,
Singapore • Proprietary, versatile and high efficiency fuel cell (FC)
technology • Nearly 1,000 granted patents • Nearly 1,000 patents pending • IE has the FC technology to disrupt parts of the power
generation landscape • …including the motive landscape
SPEAKER NOTES
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Confidential external © Intelligent Energy Limited 2015. All Rights Reserved
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared on behalf of Intelligent Energy Holdings plc (the "Company") for information and discussion purposes only. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness. The Company is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or its respective subsidiary undertakings, affiliates, respective agents or advisers or any of such persons’ affiliates, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information, or of the opinions, contained in this presentation and no liability is accepted for any such information or opinions. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF ANY OFFER, INVITATION, PROMOTION OR RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE OR TO SUBSCRIBE FOR, OR ANY OFFER OR INDUCEMENT OR INVITATION OR COMMITMENT TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR (OR ANY SOLICITATION OF ANY OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR), ANY SHARES IN THE COMPANY OR ANY SECURITIES IN ANY OTHER ENTITY. Without limitation to the foregoing (and subject to certain limited exceptions) this presentation is not for use in the United States and may not be transmitted, published or otherwise distributed in the United States. The Company's securities have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 or under any applicable securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States. Certain statements (or information) included in this document constitute, or may constitute, forward-looking statements and / or financial projections which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue,” “target” or “believe” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or actual performance of the Company may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements and no reliance should be placed on such forward-looking statements. No statement in this presentation is intended to be nor may be construed as a profit estimate or profit forecast.
KANSAS CITY SHUFFLE
when everyone looks left… Lucky Number Slevin, MGM/TWC/EFD
Kansas City Shuffle: When everyone looks left, you go right All talks today have been going left. Investors are all looking left: Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt etc. Tesla Model 3 was promised in 2012 in the Prospectus, then 2016, now late 2018 (http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2007-07-29/tesla-a-carmaker-with-silicon-valley-spark) Contingent on completing the Gigafactory, scheduled for 2020, so how will they reduce the cost of a $20,000 power pack to go into a $30,000 car without the Gigafactory? Industry is moving right and this is why should look right too…
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Here are the biggest car manufacturers in the world. Which of them are putting their resources into developing fuel cell vehicles?
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All of them, bar FIAT.
These are the most valuable car brands in the world. Where are they investing their brand capital? All of them are developing fuel cell vehicles. (Statista http://www.statista.com/statistics/273748/brand-value-of-the-most-valuable-car-brands-worldwide/)
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Let’s come back to why
First, some macroeconomics
UN DESA, 2012
Millennials will be growing up and reaching retirement throughout the transition to zero emission drivetrains. It is them who you need to pay attention to. (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs)
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Millennials (18-34) Gen X Boomer Silent
Yes - anthropogenic Yes - natural Yes - unsure Don't know No
Is there solid evidence the earth is warming?
Pew Research, Ypulse, Red Brick Research, Accenture
75%
12%
24%
16%
44%
39%
30%
25%
Earnings potential
People / team
Exciting work
Good mentor / manager
Millennials actual priorities Managers' expectations
Priorities in work
Agree
Disagree
Getting a drivers’ license is a life milestone to look forward to a lot
Consumer payment options Millennials 55+ %
Difference
Use a smartphone as a mobile payment device 52% 16% +36%
Use their phone to make a payment at least monthly 41% 9% +32%
Use digital currencies today daily or weekly 13% 1% +12%
Use a smartphone 88% 79% +9%
By 2030 there will be more millennials than non-millennials and this demographic has a vastly different viewpoint than those that came before. Many more believe in climate change and whether it be the way in which they pay, their work attitudes or even their driving prospects (and they will want to have the ability to drive, but their preferences are different to their parents’) they do not conform to business as usual
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64%
55%
49%
41%
70%
59%
49%
37%
Millennials (18-
34)
Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55+
2010 2011
67%
53%
49%
57%
45% 43%
32%
22%
27%
18%
10% 11%
Media sharing programs
(Instagram)
Car sharing programs
(BlaBlaCar)
Home sharing programs
(AirBnB)
Millennials (18-34) Ages 35-44 Ages 45-54 Ages 55+
If there were more options in my area, such as public transportation, car sharing or convenient carpooling, I would drive less than I do now
How likely are you to participate in each of the following sharing programs
Zipcar, 2012
For millennials, roads are not the infrastructure, charging points and refilling stations are not the infrastructure. Cars themselves are the infrastructure, no longer an asset.
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Digital, shared autonomy and
Apps suck profits from OEMs
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Much like for hotels and other “more shared” assets, Apps will suck profitability away from OEMs
"Telling the story of this chart will occupy the remainder my professional life. It’s sort of sad that my life can be boiled down to one chart... but it’s so true.”
– Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley
Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
and look how it looks now with: • new entrants • autonomous driving • sharing economy apps • Millennials • and more…
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Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
(Article about Uber poaching scientists from Carnegie Mellon University)
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Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
Uber and other new entrants moving to the top right-hand corner
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Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
Other new entrants are ones you may not have expected, such as Google. (The Google driverless car )
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Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
Whilst OEMs are figuring out how to get into the sharing space and spending billions to develop autonomy, others are starting to appear from nowhere
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Asset shared Asset owned
Hum
an d
rivers
Auto
nom
ous
Having spent billions to get to the top left, the only early customers (those with deep pockets) will be those in the bottom right or those already in the top right!
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So, back to why?
Legislations and
ZEV ‘fuels’
Source: ICCT
Diesel ICE approximate minimum
Diesel hybrid approximate minimum
Below 60-85 g CO2/km,
OEMs must have zero emission vehicle “fuels”
Tightening of global vehicle emission legislations…
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine Below 60-85g CO2/km, one needs zero emission vehicle “fuels”
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-6%
-15% -20%
-50%
-100% -100%
Efficient Dynamics (start/stop and recuperation)
Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Battery EV Fuel Cell EV Well to Wheel
Depending on
Energy Mix
-100% CO2
Zero Emission Vehicle ‘Fuels’
After BMW, 2013
Only electricity and hydrogen deliver ‘fuels’ with zero emission
potential
…force choices of ZEV ‘fuels’
And these zero emission vehicle fuels are: • Electricity • hydrogen
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Convenience
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
CO2 emissionsgCO2 / km
ICE – gasoline
2050
ICE – diesel
2010
BEV
2050
2010
2050
2010
2010
2050
PHEV
Low emissions and high range
Range Km
Fuel cells deliver required mix of emission reduction, speed of refuelling, range and tested refuelling infrastructure business model
42 Source: A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis. The role of Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrids and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles. www.zeroemissionvehicles.eu
Convenience
But the consumers require convenience: • Range • Rapid refuelling
And the infrastructure providers require: • A clear and understandable business model
…but the car OEMs require to maximise vehicle profitability
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Vehicle Profitability
Premium = higher margin Smaller cars = lower margin
Low
range
Higher priced Lower priced H
igh r
ange
After GfK, 2013
If you recall the brands that are active in fuel cells from the beginning, they can be segmented in a number of ways, here is an approximation of GfK’s Barometer of Automotive Awareness Study All of these know that they need to reduce emissions. Most are investing in hybrid vehicles for release over the next few years. What’s key to observe is that: • Smaller vehicles have LOWER margins per vehicle • Larger (premium) vehicles typically command large
margins per vehicle
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Engine
Generator
Gasoline tank
Motor
Motor
Battery PCU
Motor
Motor
Battery PCU
Fuel cell Motor
Motor
Battery PCU
Hybrid electric vehicle
Battery electric vehicle
Fuel cell electric vehicle
After Toyota, 2015
Hydrogen tank
‘xEVs’ share similar drivetrains
Once you have a hybrid vehicle, it is not too difficult to go fully zero emission. An electric drivetrain is an electric drivetrain. Whether supplemented by an engine, or with a fuel cell, or as a pure electric.
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Low
range
Hig
h r
ange
FCEV
BEV RE-BEV PHEV FCEV
After McKinsey, 2011
“Family Sized cars” = segments typically more profitable for car OEMs e.g. Toyota, Hyundai, Intelligent Energy new 100kW fuel cell clean “V8” platform Segment = 50% of European car park, 75% of emissions and energy consumed
“Smaller (urban) cars” = segment more difficult to access (typically less profitable per vehicle) without compact and powerful fuel cells but a lighter refuelling infrastructure makes it a potential earlier market e.g. Suzuki licenced Intelligent Energy Air Cooled fuel cell technology Segment = 50% of European car park, 25% of emissions and energy consumed
Premium = higher margin Small cars = lower margin
Higher priced Lower priced Higher priced
And here McKinsey’s study of the best carbon-abatement option for drivetrains on a least cost basis What matters here is that smaller (urban) cars, whilst being 50% of the EU car park, they: 1- account for 25% of the emissions and energy consumed (they drive less far and are smaller) 2- are much less profitable than larger family sized cars
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Real Industrial Capital Deployed…
e.g. Public fuel cell (BLDP:NASDAQ)
Fuel cell 1.0
Industrial capital
Fuel Cell 2.0
A lot of people, rightly, if they looked at the quoted fuel cell sector, would say there is no “fuel cell 2.0” But if you look from behind the factory gates of large commercial global companies, as Intelligent Energy does because we work (through licensing) behind the factory gates of the large OEMs, then you see 10s of billions of £ of industrial capital going into FC 2.0 now And that’s a great place to be if, as Intelligent Energy does, if you have a much more power dense FC technology, the FC 2.0 tech Proof points: • Toyota launched its 1st FCEV to market in 2015 • Intelligent Energy has had its first of kind CE product in UK
Apple Stores • IE has gone from 0MW under contract to over 340MW in
the space of 16 months
This is the case TODAY
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…Delivers Cost Reduction
After Jeffries, 2014
Industrial capital invested delivers cost reduction This is not science This is production engineering …and now starting to be volumetrics – volume/cost equation
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Battery Storage Capacity Battery Weight 20kWh 19kWh 215kg 24kWh 299kg 24kWh 270kg 22kWh 230kg 41.8kWh 380kg 24kWh 312kg 27kWh 277kg 36kWh 60 to 85kWh 402 to 540kg
BEVs achieve increased range with larger and heavier batteries, consequential higher curb weight, higher
vehicle CAPEX and longer charge times
BEVs, Range and Vehicle CAPEX
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) with longer range are much heavier, requiring stronger chassis, which makes them heavier and costs more. To access more range with BEVs, one needs more battery cells, more CAPEX more weight which means more chassis CAPEX …and longer charging times
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Refuelling Infrastructure Profitability
and Business Model Clarity
Infrastructure characteristics dictated by refuelling speed
“One to Many” or “Public” Infrastructures “One to Few” or “Private” Infrastructures
• Hydrocarbon refuelling
• SaaS • Cell phone
telephony • Hydrogen
refuelling
• CAPEX tails off with geographical saturation
• OPEX tails off similarly • Marginal cost increase
per user • Clear business model • But initial CAPEX
needed so initial step less obvious (unless central market making, cheap infrastructure financing or policies) but often followed by fast adoption rate
• Electricity charging
• Landline telephony
• Home PC compute power
• Linear CAPEX increase • OPEX increases similarly • Total cost increase per user • Business model if end user
funds marginal CAPEX increase and centrally monetised
• But initial CAPEX low for initial value to early user so initial step easier but often slower adoption rate (unless low funded consumer CAPEX relative to disposable income and/or consumer credit accessible)
We can characterise infrastructures between: One to many (or so called “public”) infrastructures And One to few (private) infrastructures. Their key differences are: • Deployment CAPEX • OPEX maintenance • Adoption rates
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240,000 km/day
80,000-120,000 km/day
2,000 - 5,800 km/day
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Gasoline Hydrogen Electric
Range of one dispenser (km/day)
BMW, 2013 50 – 120 KW Quick-Charge
Zero Emission Vehicle ‘Fuels’
Faster refuelling increases infrastructure profitability
and reduces CAPEX and OPEX
Refuelling time favours hydrogen
Why is range such an issue when we have superchargers? It is still minutes vs. hours… Less time refuelling means more utilisation of the infrastructure which reduces deployment CAPEX and maintenance OPEX
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AN URBAN GRID (Map)
A representative city suburb grid layout
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WITH Electricity CHARGE POINTS more CAPEX, more OPEX
DifferentEVplugs
Publically accessible charging infrastructure, requiring upgrades to the local electricity substations to cope with high currents to charge and fast charging. This requires digging up the roads and new substations in what are expensive and crowded urban networks. Not everybody has a reserved parking space with access to a plug overnight in cities… …and no plug standards yet.
SPEAKER NOTES
WITH (Hydrogen) Refuelling Stations
Hydrogen Refuelling Nozzle
Hydrogen Refuelling Stations take up less valuable real estate, serving many more cars per location and being much quicker and cheaper to get the correct scale quickly ….but require an initial investment compared with plugs (albeit plugs require more and more plug CAPEX and maintenance OPEX the more BEVs there are) …and nozzle and refuelling ISO standards exist already
SPEAKER NOTES
Infrastructure - refuelling and recharging have different deployment CAPEX profiles
FCEVs “One to Many” or “Public” Infrastructure
BEVs “One to Few” or “Private” Infrastructure
Source: A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis. The role of Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrids and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles. www.zeroemissionvehicles.eu
Annual (EU) infrastructure investments in oil and gas, telecommunications and road infrastructure each amount to €50-€60 billon. (Global Insight) For 100m FCEVs in the EU, €101bn for EU over 40 years For 200m BEVs/PHEVs in the EU, €540bn for EU over 40 years Note the linear CAPEX (and OPEX) to roll out electric recharging infrastructure versus the one to many infrastructure - once rolled out, you need more truck to deliver (hydrogen) fuel, not more charging points
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Possible implications on adoption rates…
Source: Forbes Magazine July 1997
Once limited “one to many” deployed, adoption rates can be very fast
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FCEVs and Infrastructure now…
“Toyota, Nissan and Honda have agreed to work together to help accelerate the development of hydrogen station infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).”
Nissan Motor Corporation Feb 12th, 2015
Let’s turn to automotive. Nobody in Japan is asking whether or when hydrogen and FCEVS are happening, it’s happening now.
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What now?
… it’s a portfolio
of ‘xEVs’
Low
range
Hig
h r
ange
FCEV
BEV RE-BEV PHEV FCEV
After McKinsey, 2011
Premium = higher margin Small cars = lower margin
Higher priced Lower priced Higher priced
And here McKinsey’s study of the best carbon-abatement option for drivetrains on a least cost basis What matters here is that smaller (urban) cars, whilst being 50% of the EU car park, they: 1- account for 25% of the emissions and energy consumed (they drive less far and are smaller) 2- are much less profitable than larger family sized cars
SPEAKER NOTES
Com
pact
Larg
e
FCEV
BEV PHEV
After BMW, 2013
10km Range ‘refuelled’ in 5 mins 700km
Premium = higher margin Small cars = lower margin
V
ehic
le S
ize
RE-BEV
BMW
And here BMW’s rational for their new i-Series cars BEV and FCEV are zero tailpipe emissions A Fuel Cell RE-EV is zero tailpipe emissions Internal combustion engine PHEV and RE-EV are lower emissions vehicles BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle RE-BEV = Range Extended Battery Electric Vehicle
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Com
pact
Larg
e
10km Range ‘refuelled’ in 5 mins 700km+
Premium = higher margin Small cars = lower margin
V
ehic
le S
ize
http://www.toyota-global.com/innovation/environmental_technology/strategy_environmental_tech.html
Toyota
And here Toyota’s rational for their cars BEV and FCEV are zero tailpipe emissions A Fuel Cell RE-EV is zero tailpipe emissions Internal combustion engine PHEV and RE-EV are lower emissions vehicles BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle RE-BEV = Range Extended Battery Electric Vehicle
SPEAKER NOTES
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100-200kW
Premium car motive power (modular to
200 kW+)
2–10kW
2-wheeler 3-wheeler
MHE
15-30kW
Small car range extender CV APUs
50-75kW
Medium car motive power
Large car / LCV range extender
Intelligent Energy
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Which closely resembles ours, and Intelligent Energy has a full range of highly power dense fuel cells from small cars to larger cars.
SPEAKER NOTES
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0W
Consum
er
Ele
ctro
nic
s (C
E) 100W
Dis
tribute
d P
ow
er
& G
enera
tion
(DP&
G)
10kW
Auto
motiv
e
100kW
Design once, Deploy Many Times across different markets reduces costs…faster
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All underpinned by a common Research &Technology and manufacturing platform Which delivers cost efficient technology development Only enabled by the right highly scalable technology Which accelerates cost reduction and reduces time to market Which allows Intelligent Energy to disrupt large end markets Consumer Electronics (CE), Distributed Power & Generation (DP&G) and Motive As you’ll know, many investors value the fact that these sectors perform very differently under different market conditions That insulates Intelligent Energy as a business
SPEAKER NOTES
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Intelligent Energy 4 global volume
OEM customers of which
3 Asian OEMS
That has enabled us to win contracts with our technology to 4 major automotive OEMs. Look at the acceleration: • Two customers over 8 years • Two additional customers over the last 10
months There are 17 OEMs that produced over 1 million cars p.a. in 2013. We work with almost 25% of them. Of which, 2 Japanese, one Asian and one European Premium Car Manufacturer
SPEAKER NOTES
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Intelligent Energy – market take-up
Financials
• Strong revenue growth half-year on half-year from £3.5m in 1H14 to £27.4m in 1H15
Distributed Power & Generation
• Good progress toward completing landmark long term power management transactions
• GTL transaction expected to deliver £1.2bn revenues over 10 years, providing clean, efficient and economic power to over 26,000 telecom towers
• April 2015 expanded scope of interim sub-contract reiterates GTL’s commitment to working with IE; monthly revenue from April 2015 increased from c. £4m per month to c. £10m per month
Consumer Electronics
• Strategically important acquisition of BIC’s intellectual property assets which provided valuable, high volume
manufacturing and production IP
• Accelerates IE’s move toward the introduction to the market of its embedded fuel cell technology
• First of kind product in UK Apple Stores
Motive
• It took 8 years to secure two customers of which one $70m non exclusive licence from Suzuki, $130m+ revenues over last four years, one potentially very large OLA
• ...and 10 months to secure two more Asian car OEMs
5 Notes: 1. Historic £ values for DP&G India have been calculated using the GBP/INR exchange rate in force at the time the transaction was recorded, other £ values are estimated at £1 = 100 INR
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Note: • Historic £ values for DP&G India have been calculated using the GBP/INR exchange rate in force at the time the transaction was recorded, other £ values are estimated at £1 = 100 INR
Strong revenue growth …largely driven by DP&G CE BIC transaction and launch of consumer fuel cell charger product, Upp™ in UK Apple Stores Strong growth of customer base in Motive and strong growth of store of future revenue growth (licensing model)
SPEAKER NOTES
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Historical precedent – Diesel Engine
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It is a very BIG Opportunity where ‘scalability leadership’ is not established yet
c100 years ago Rudolph Diesel invented the Diesel Engine A new engine – requiring a new manufacturing process – with a new fuel It is now ubiquitous in the Motive and Distributed Power market because of its efficiency benefits Because of their efficiency, not only can Fuel Cells compete in the traditional sub 100kW diesel market earlier and faster than compete with large scale grid power – but at power levels down to 1W, one can do so much more…
The Global Distributed Diesel Power (sub 100kW)
The Global Automotive Market …and The Global, hand held, portable Consumer Electronics …and Devices powering the Internet of Things (IoT)
And history tells us this is BIG IF an “engine technology” (like a fuel cell) is more efficient than the incumbent the technology (Internal Combustion Engines) …it is not IF, it is WHEN …for fuel cells … it is NOW …and it is even more disruptive than Diesels were as FCs can be very small and can disrupt Internet of Things and more
SPEAKER NOTES
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Summary
To reduce transport sector emissions, ‘more’ electric drivetrains are required
xEV portfolio approach – HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, FCEVs
FCEVs are most likely mass market globally scalable option • Range requirements • Charging/refuelling characteristics
• Consumer expectations • Leading OEM investments
Internet and “consumerisation” of cars creates new opportunities Innovators can move quickly today Intelligent Energy well positioned with 4 customers, of which 3 Asian volume OEMS
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In summary • Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) fuels are a must to
meet legislations – electricity and hydrogen are the ZEV “twin energy carriers”
• Millennials, digitations, infrastructure, per vehicle profitability drive MASS/VOLUME OEMs such as Toyota, BMW and many others to FCEVs
• Intelligent Energy is really well positioned with customers in Japan, Asia and Europe and a “design once, deploy many times” business model to accelerate take-up across different markets with one unique, patented and highly scalable fuel cell technology
SPEAKER NOTES
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www.intelligent-energy.com www.intelligent-energy.com
Thank you
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