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K 2: Thc trng n cng ti Vit Nam

Viettinnhanh - Sau khng hong ti chnh ton cu (2008), n cng v khng hong ncng hin nay khng ch l ni lo lng ca chnh ph m cn l s quan tm ca c cngng.

Lm bn v vn n cng ca Vit Nam

Zimbabwe - quc gia c t l lm pht khng khip nht hin nay cng chnh l nc ct l n cng trn GDP cao nht th gii. Mi lin kt gia cc thnh vin trong EU angb e e da bi khng hong n cng. Thng 4/2011, ni cc ca Chnh ph M btng v n cng.

Ti Vit Nam, theo World Factbook ca CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), t l ncng so vi GDP nm 2009 l 52,30% v Vit Nam hin ang xp th 44 trong 129 qucgia v n cng.Theo cng b ca Tp ch Kinh t The Economist, t l n cng nm 2010 ca Vit Naml 50,935 t USD (tng ng 51,6% GDP). Mc d t l n ny vn nm trong tmkim sot (di 50%/GDP) nhng n qu cao so vi mc ph bin cc nn kinh tang pht trin (t 30-40%) v vi thc trng n cng ca mt s nn kinh t mi ni

http://viettinnhanh.net/http://viettinnhanh.net/News/Kinhte/Trongnuoc/2011/08/1715/Lam-ban-ve-van-de-no-cong-cua-Viet-Nam.aspxhttp://viettinnhanh.net/http://viettinnhanh.net/News/Kinhte/Trongnuoc/2011/08/1715/Lam-ban-ve-van-de-no-cong-cua-Viet-Nam.aspx

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nh Trung Quc (17,4%), Indonesia (26,5%). Ngoi ra, cng theo The Economist, mcn cng tnh trn u ngi ca Vit Nam nm 2010 l 580,91 USD. Nu so snh vi713,6 USD (Trung Quc), 743 USD (Indonesia), 4.184 USD (Malaysia), 1.071 USD(Philippines), 2.064 USD (Thi Lan) th y l con s khng cao.

Tuy nhin, nu so mc n cng bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam vo nm 2001 xp x112 USD; th trong vng 10 nm, con s ny tng gp 5 ln. Vi thc trng t l titkim ni a khong 27% GDP trong khi mc u t ton x hi mi nm khong 42%GDP ti Vit Nam hin nay, th chc chn con s ny s tip tc gia tng trong nhngnm ti.

Trong c cu n cng Vit Nam, n nc ngoi c vai tr quan trng v chim t trngcao nht. Nm 2010, trong 56,6% GDP n cng c 42,2% GDP l n nc ngoi (biu 2). Mc d n cng khc vi n nc ngoi, nhng hin nay Vit Nam, thng tin chitit v n cng cha y ; do vy, cc nh kinh t thng s dng ch s n nc ngoi hnh dung quy m v mc nghim trng ca n cng ca quc gia.

C cu n cng ca Vit Nam. (Ngun: B Ti chnh).Ngun cung cp n nc ngoi ch yu ca Vit Nam l cc khon vay ODA. Theo danhmc n cng nm 2009 ca B Ti chnh (BTC), 60,3% n cng l ODA v 29,8% cti tr t tri phiu trong nc.

Cc iu khon u i ca ODA gip Vit Nam gim bt c p lc n cng; tuynhin, t trng n nc ngoi cao tng nguy c ri ro v c cu n trong tng lai. Kinh

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nghim t cc cuc khng hong n trong lch s cho thy, khi t trng n nc ngoiqu cao, Chnh ph mt i tnh ch ng khi ng ph vi cc bin ng kinh t th giiv kh kim sot cc mn n vay ph thuc vo t gi hi oi v tm l ca nh u tquc t.

Khng hong n Argentina (2001) v s bt n ca Hy Lp hin nay l minh chng inhnh cho tc ng tiu cc ca ngun n cng t nc ngoi. Trng hp ngc li lNht, mc d c mc n cng trn GDP cao nhng Nht Bn vn c nh gi l bnvng do n cng ch yu c ti tr t cc nh u t trong nc.Cc khon vay nc ngoi ca Vit Nam a s u c li sut thp, trong ch yu l mc 1% - 2,99%. Tuy nhin so vi cc nm trc, nm 2010, cc khon vay ca VitNam c li sut cao hn v khon vay vi li sut th ni ang ngy cng tng ln, gythm p lc n cho Chnh ph. Trong 25,097 t USD tng n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph,c 19,313 t USD c li sut t 1 - 2,99%; trn 1,678 t USD chu li sut t 3 - 5,99%(tng 176 triu USD so vi 2009) v c ti 1,888 t USD mc li sut 6- 10%, tng hn

gp i so vi 2009. Ngoi ra, cc khon vay vi li sut th ni cng tng 6,66 triuUSD so vi 2009.

Theo Cc Qun l n v Ti chnh i ngoi, li sut trung bnh n nc ngoi ca Chnhph tng t 1,54%/nm vo nm 2006 ln 1,9%/nm trong nm 2009 v nm 2010 tti 2,1%/nm. Vi thc trng ny, r rng chi ph tr li ang tr thnh gnh nng ngycng gia tng ca Chnh ph.N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam kh a dng v c cu tin vay. Trn l thuyt, iu nyc cho l c th hn ch ri ro v t gi, gim p lc ln ngha v tr n nc ngoica Chnh ph. Tuy nhin, trn thc t c cu ny cng tim n nhng ri ro khi c binng trn th trng ti chnh th gii. T trng cao ca cc khon vay bng USD(22,95%) v JPY (38,25%) (biu 3) gy nguy c gia tng khon chi gc v li khi tgi USD/VND lun c xu hng tng; v JPY ang ln gi so vi USD.Nh vy, mc d mc n cng so vi GDP ca Vit Nam vn c nh gi l an tonnhng c cu n cng ang n cha nhiu ri ro; do vy, trong tnh trng lm pht toncu ang gia tng, nguy c bng n mt cuc chin v tin t trn th gii th qun l ncng th no cho hiu qu l vn ng quan tm hng u ti Vit Nam hin nay.

Theo Lut Qun l n cng Vit Nam 2009, n cng bao gm nChnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a

phng. Vi cch tnh ny, n Chnh ph chim t trng ln trongtng n cng ca Vit Nam. T l n cng nm 2009 Vit Nam l52,6%/GDP, n Chnh ph l 41,9%, n Chnh ph bo lnh l 9,8%,n chnh quyn a phng l 0,8%. Con s tng t ca nm 2010ln lt l 56,6%, 44,3%, 11,36% v 0,94%.

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Mc d nhiu kin cho rng n Chnh ph vn nm trong ngng an ton (di50% GDP) v ngha v tr n Chnh ph so vi thu ngn sch Nh nc vnnm trong gii hn cho php (15,8%/thu ngn sch Nh nc so vi quynh 30% theo thng l quc t), tuy nhin xu hng gia tng n cng quacc nm cng th hin mt s bt n cn lu .

l kin ca TS L Xun Ngha Ph ch tch, y ban Gim st Ti chnhQuc gia ti Hi tho T chc kim ton i vi vic qun l v s dng cckhon n cng do Kim ton Nh nc t chc ngy 10/12.

Tnh n 31/12/2009, n cng chim 52,6% GDP, trong n Chnh ph chim41,9% GDP, xp x 39 t USD. D tnh n cui nm 2010 n Chnh ph schim 44,6% GDP, do iu chnh tng bi chi ngn sch ln trn 5% GDP (nm2009 l 6,9% GDP v nm 2010 l 6,2% GDP).

Cng theo ng Ngha, vic xc nh ngng an ton ch l khi nim tng

i, mng nng tnh thng k. Cn trong thc t, vic n cng ca cc quc giac thc s trong ngng an ton cn phi xem xt trn nhiu kha cnh nhtc tng trng, tnh bn vng trong pht trin, kh nng chng ri ro,khong hong, bin ng bt ng). Theo ng, i vi n cng Vit Nam s cnhng ri ro tim n sau:

Th nht, n nc ngoi cao (chim 58,8% trong n Chnh ph) trong phnln cc khon n nc ngoi l vay ODA (85%) ngoi vic lm tng chi ph uvo ca khon vay th lm tng nguy c ri ro v c cu n, cha k cc khonvay ODA ny s gim dn trong tng lai.

Th hai, p lc chi ph ngn sch ln dn n thm ht ngn sch c trong vngoi d ton ngy cng gia tng (t 2,8% GDP nm 2001 ln ti 9% GDP nm2009) vt qua mc 5% theo thng l quc t cng gy p lc ln chnh sch tikha v ngha v tr n trong tng lai.

Th ba, ch s ICOR o lng hiu qu u t cng cao th hiu qu du tca nn kinh t cng thp. H s ICOR nm 1991 l 3,2 tng ln 8 vo nm2009 cho thy hiu qu thp trong vic s dng ngun lc, s lng ph v qunl cha cht ch trong u t cng nh kh nng cnh tranh thp ca nn kinht.

Th t, n cng c th gia tng nhanh chng v t bin trong thi gian ngnnu mt s cc tp on kinh t b, mt kh nng thanh ton v chnh phphi vay n ti tr cho cc tp on ny nhm ti c cu ti chnh. ngNgha dn chng ti vic ti c cu tp on Vinashin.

Th nm, tnh trng bong bong bt ng sn, n xu, ri ro li sut v hi oicng nh hng n nn tng ti chnh v thanh khon ca h thng ngnhng. Trong trng hp cc ngn hng thng mi gp kh khn v thanh

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khon cn c ti tr t ngn sch cng c th lm bi chi v n cng tng tngt.

ng quan im vi ng Ngha, TS L Sa - Trung tm Chu - Thi BnhDng H Ni nhn nh: N cng Vit Nam c kh nhiu vn ng lo

ngi. V th, tin vay phi c qun l cht ch theo cc nguyn tc ca Lutqun l n cng mt cch cng khai, minh bch v c l trnh tr n. Nh vy,n cng mi c th phc v cho vic pht trin t nc. Nu khng, s dn titnh trng n nn chng cht v th h mai sau phi gnh trch nhim tr n.

N cng Vit Nam ang tng nhanh trong khi thm ht ngn sch tr thnhcn bnh "kinh nin", u t khng ngng m rng ko theo lm pht v li suttng cao khin cho vic ti tr n cng ngy cng tr nn t .

"Hiu qu s dng cc khon vay l mt vn rt quan trng v t mi bom c dng tin tr n trong tng lai. Hin nay, Vit Nam dng nh mi

ch trng n kha cnh gii ngn cho cc khon vay, bn cho c tri phiu,thu tin v c xem l thnh cng. Cn theo nhiu nh gi, cc khon ut ca Nh nc vn b coi l dn tri, chm tin , tht thot, lng ph ln vnnh nc nhng hiu qu u t thu c thp, nhng cn bnh kinh nin cacc d n u t cng khng gim st m cn c chiu hng tng mnh - Tins L Sa bnh lun.

Kim ton Nh nc vi t cch l c quan chuyn mn v lnh vc kim tra tichnh nh nc do Quc hi thnh lp, thc hin kim tra vic qun l, s dngngn sch, tin v ti sn nh nc i vi mi c quan, t chc qun l, sdng ngn sch. V vy, vic kim tra ca kim ton Nh nc i vi vic qun

l v s dng cc khon n cng l cn thit, m bo tnh minh bch trongqun l v s dng cc khon n cng cng nh tnh bn vng ca ngn schnh nc.

N cng , ang v s l vn ca nn kinh t ton cu ni chung v ca nnkinh t VIt Nam ni ring. Nhng cng l mt c hi minh bch cc chitiu v n nn ca Chnh ph, khng th tnh trng n cng khng ai bit rnh trc c na. T , to lng tin ca ngi dn i vi chnh ph, tong lc cho qu trnh pht trin ca t nc.

NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02PHN 2: THC TRNG N CNG TI VIT NAM GIAI ON 2008-20102.1. Tnh hnh n cng th giiKinh t th gii va tri qua cn bo khng hong d di nht k t saucuci suy thoi 1929-1933 v ang cht vt hi phc. Th nhng, s hi phchin nay cakinh t th gii rt mong manh, bp bnh v khng loi tr khnng c th b

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suy thoi tr li bi nhiu nguyn nhn, trong tnh trng n cng trn lan nhiu nc l mt nguyn nhn quan trng.Tr ong nhng nm gn y, s q uant m c a th g i i a ng vo HyLp, ni m ni n ang ln lng nc ny.N y nn kinh t nc nyvo nguy c sp vi tng s n cng ln ti300 t Euro (chim 124% GDPnm 2009) v mc thm ht ngn sch hai con s,

trong khi tng trng kinh ttip tc m. Hin nay, Hy Lp l nc c mc n cngthuc loi nhiu nht tichu u so vi quy m nn kinh t v c v nh mt ngibnh ang trongthi k nguy kch. Mc tn nhim ti chnh ca nc ny b tt xunghng BBB-. iu ny ng ngha vi kh nng i vay tin tbn ngoi tr nnkh khn. Nu khng tr c, Hy Lp s tr thnh nc b v n,cc ch n stm cch sit n, v nh vy, nn k inh t nc ny s ri vokhng hong khim cc nh u t tm cch tho chy khi Hy Lp. Tnhtrng n cng chngcht khng ch l hin tng n l din ra Hy Lp hayBng o v u-baign y, m tr thnh hin tng kh ph bin trn th gii.Khng ring ccnc ang pht trin mi i vay, m c nhng nc pht trin giu ccng mcn.Hin nay, M l con n ln thuc loi hng u th gii vi tng

s n ln ti 13.000 t USD, chim khong 93% GDP. Mc thm ht ngnsch caM nm 2010 d kin l 9,9%. iu ny bo hiu ni n ca M s tng lntimc xp x 100% GDP vo cui nm nay.K c Nht Bn, tng c thi ngi tatng c th s mua ht ncM, vy m by gi cng tr thnh mt conn c b v i mc n tngng vi 227% GDP v thm ht ngn sch dkin 10,2 % nm 2010.Ri n Trung Quc, nc hin c coi l ch n ncngoi ln caM v nhiu nc khc vi ngun d tr quc gia trn 2000 t USD,song cngk h n g p h i l k h n g m c n . T h e o G i o s V i c t o r S h i ht t r n g i h c N o r t hw e st e rn c a M , c c c h n h q uy n aph n g c a Tru ng Qu c va ymn tng cng trn 11 nghn t nhn dnt (tng ng vi 1,68 ngh n tUSD) t nm 2004 cho ti cui nm 2009 vTrung Quc c th s phi i mtvi thm ht ngn sch khng l, chim hn 10% GDPtrong nm 2010.n , mt nn kinh t ln ang ln chu cng ang imt vitnh trng n cng nng n. T l n so vi GDP nm 2009 ln ti88,9% vmc thm ht ngn sch nm 2010 d kin l 6,8%. Hin n b xp hngtndng quc gia BBB- ging nh Hy Lp.Tro ng li n min h chu u ( EU), huh t cc nc u ang t r ong t nh t r ng n n n . Ngay c c , nnkin h t m nh nh t ch u u, cn g m mn htrong n vi mc 84,5%GDP. N cng ca Php cui nm 2009 ln xp x1500 t Euro, tng ngvi 82,6 % GDP, mc thm ht ngn sch 7,6 % v d k in cn tip tc vi mc7,1% nm 2010.Tnh hnh ca Italy li cn ng bun hn vi mc n cng ln ti 120 % GDPnm 2009 v d kin thm htng n sc h 5,6 % nm 201 0, t ron g khi tn gtr ng kin h t t ip tc kh kh n(-2,3%).Mt s nc nh Ty Ban Nha , B o Nha , Bng o , A i - x -l en cng ang lm tnh cnh n nn bi t. Cc nc ny u c t l n gnngang,thm c h c nc c n ln hn GD P v t hm h t ng n sc h v txa mc quynh (3%) ca EU, trong khi trin vng tng trng kinh t rt m m.

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Trnghp Ty Ban Nha rt ng lo ngi v nhiu chuyn gia cnh bo rngTy Ban Nha c th s i theo con ng ca Hy Lp, b i v i ngns ch b th m h tngang mc 11,4% GDP, tng n cng v t tng ng300% GDP - nhngcon s ny trm trng hn ca Hy Lp rt nhiu. Trongkhi , tht nghip caTy Ban Nha cng rt cao, ti 20% (4,5 triu ngi)

v nht l h thng ngnhng rt mong manh.Tnh trng n gia tng n mc khngth chp nhn c nhiu ncnh vy bo hiu mt trin vng khng my sngsa ca kinh t th gii. Mts kin cho rng, khng loi tr kh nng khnghong n xy ra ti mt trongs mt xch xung yu nht hin nay s dn n mtcuc suy thoi kinh t mic th lan rng.C th gii ang chm trong cn lcxoy n cng. Tt c cc nn kinht ln mn h t r n th g ii nh M ,Nh t Bn , c , Trun g Qu c; t ch u M,chu u ti chu u angi u vi bi ton n cng v Vit Nam cngkh ng n m ng o i v ngxo y . Tro ng su t nh n g n m g n y, gi ai o n 2008-2010 n cng caVit Nam cng ang tng dn.Vy thc trng n cng Vit Nam hin nay liu c anton?

2.2. Thc trng Vit Nam giai on 2008-20102.2.1. Quy m n cngChn ng t cuc khng hong n cng Hy Lp ang c nguy c lanrng sang mts quc gia EU khc khin cc nc, nht l nhng nc c n cng ln vthm h t ngn sch kinh nin, phi nh gi li tnh trng ti khaca mnh.Ti Vit Nam, tnh trng n cng lin tc tng lm cho yu cu nngca o ch t lngqun l n cn g ca Vi t Na m cng t r nn cp th i t . Th eoWorldFactbook n cng ca Vit Nam nm 2008 l khong 38% GDP, nhngn nm 2009 tng nhanh ln mc 52,3% GDP. Cn theo B Ti chnh th n cng ti Vit Namnm 2009 ch mc 39% GDP. V trong nm 2010 th n cng ln ti 56,7%GDP.y ban Php lut Quc hi cng b khon n cng ti Vit Namvokhong 42% GDP . Tr ong kh i , y ban Thng v Quc h i l ia r a k t l un r ng n Ch nh ph ang t ng cao : t 33 ,8% GDP nm20 07 l n 36 ,2 %GDP nm 2008, 41,9% nm 2009 v ln 44,6% nm 2010,km theo l licnh bo n Chnh ph tng st mc trn cho php.Vi cchtnh n cng ca T chc Thng mi v Pht trin Lin hpquc (UNCTAD)c nhiu nc trn th gii s dng th n cng cn baogm c n ca doanhnghip nh nc theo c ch t vay t tr, n ca cng tyc phn tng ng vi t lphn vn gp ca Nh nc, qu bo him x him Nh nc s dng mua tri phiu hay u t vo cc cng trnh kinh ttrng im quc gia. Mtheo vy th n cngca Vit Nam phi ln ti trn72% GDP, bi n ht nm 2008, tng d n ca cc tp on, tng cng ty nhnc l 20% GDP , cha k l nhng con s t hng k cha y ,r rng. Minh chng in hnh l trng hp Vinashin c tng s d n thc t lnti120.000 t ng ch khng phi 86.000 t nh bo co. Theo s liucaTp ch kinh t The Economist th tng n cng ca Vit Nam hin l 50,935 tUSD,tng ng 51,6% GDP. Nh vy l ch ring vic tnh ton n cng cng gy ra nhng btcp. iu cho thy s thiu thng nht trong nh gi, thng k vthiu chtch, lin kt gia cc c quan qun l vn ny. Tuy mi con s phn nh

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mtci nhn khc nhau v mt vn c xem l sc khe ca mt nn kinhtnhng n u cho thy rng quy m n cng ti Vit Nam ang ngy cng ln.Biu 1: N cng v cn cn ngn sch ca Vit Nam (2007-2010)(s liu 2010 l c tnh)N cng ca Vit Nam tng nhanh trong bi cnh thm ht ngn sch(c trong

v ngoi d ton) tng t -7.3% GDP nm 2007 ln ti 9,6% GDP nm2009 (theo EIU),

trong khi thm ht ngn sch tr thnh kinh nin, u t likhng ngng m rng kotheo lm pht v li sut cao khin cho vic ti tr n cng ngy cng tr nn t .Mc thm ht vt xa ngng bo ng 5% theo thng l quc t, khintnh bn vng ca n cng cng b gim st.Trong khi , vi nhu cu tiptc u t pht trin, chc chn n cng caVit Nam s cn tng trongnhiu nm ti. C th l, vi t l tit kim ni ach khong 27% GDP trongkhi mc u t ton x hi mi nm khong 42%GDP th Chnh ph s phitip tc i vay rt nhiu (bn cnh vn u t ncngoi b p khon thiu htu t). iu ny vi phm mt nguyn tc c bnca qun l n cng bn vng, l n cng ngy hm nay phi c ti tr bng thng d ngn sch ngy mai.y l nguyn nhn chnh khin Fitch gimxp hng tn dng di hn ca Vit Nam t

BB-xung B+ (tc l thp hn mcu tbn bc) vo cui thng 7-2010. Nh vy cth thy mi cng dn uc quyn li v c trch nhim t cc khon vay ca Nh nc.Biu 2: T l d n ca Chnh ph t nm 2007 n nm 2010

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NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02B Bng 1: Xp hng n cng ca mt s quc gia trn th gii

Bo co v ngn sch Nh nc tnh n 31/12/2009 tng s d n cng bng 52,6%GDP, nm 2010 d n Chnh ph bng 44,3% GDP, d n quc gia bng 42,2% GDP vd n cng bng 56,6% GDP.Xu hng gia tng n cngan g m c b o ng ,

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t c t ng d n ch nh ph b nh qun hng nm g i a i on 2006- 2010 l 24 ,3%. N c ng c a n c t a n m 20 10 mc 5 6 ,7%GDP (GDPnm 2010 c thc hin l 1.951 nghn t ng). Trong :N chnh ph khong 44,5% GDP.

N c chnh ph bo lnh khong 11,6% GDP (Quyt nhs 10 16 /Q -TTg , p h duy t hn mc vay th ng mi n c n go i cChnh ph bolnh nm 2010 l 1.600 triu USD).N ca chnh quyn a phng tng ng khong 0 ,6%GDP.

N nc ngoi ca quc gia so vi GDP khong 42,2%.

N g h a v t r n C h n h p h s o v i t h u n g n s c h n h

nckhong18,9%.

Ngha v t r n nc n goi t ru ng d i hn so vi xu t khu khong5,1%.Ch ch trng nhiu n ngng n lm mc t l phn trm trong GDPtheo mctiu, cha quan tm ng mc n vn quan trng hn l kimsot xuhng gia tng ca t l ny.C th hn v vn n nc ngoi, n nc ngo ica quc gia so viGDP bng 39%, thuc din quc gia c n nc ngoi vaphi, nu xt theokhuyn ngh ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB), theo trn50% c cho l n qu nhiu; ngha v tr n nc ngoi trung di hn so vi xutkhu hng ha,dch v ch bng 4,2% (WB cho php n 25%); d tr ngoi hi so vin ncngoi ngn hn l 290% (khuyn ngh ca WB l trn 200%); ngha vtr n Chnh ph so vi tng thu ngn sch nh nc 5,1% (ngng an ton ca WBldi 35%)Khng k n c Chnh ph bo lnh, trong tng s d n ncngoiChnh ph gn 23 ,943 t USD, c n 19,325 t USD l i sut t 1-2,99%; trn1,5 t USD li sut t 3-5,99%; 281,7 triu USD li sut 0-99%v 919 tr iuUSD mc li sut 6-10%. Ngoi ra, hn 1,9 t USD d n cn li cp lisut th ni theo li sut lin ngn hng ca th trng London (LIBOR)..NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02Bng 2: N cng tnh trn u ngi ca mt s quc gia ngy 12/10/2010(Thng k

da trn s liu ca tp ch The Economist)Theo nh bng trn ta thy hin ti Nht Bn ang l nc c s n cngtrn u ngiln nht th gii, ng sau l Iceland v mt s nc chu u vmc n cng trn ungi Vit Nam ch l 580.91 USD/ngi. So snh trn bng 2 th n cng trn ungi ca Vit Nam c xp vo hng thp trongkhu vc chu - khu vc c tl n cng trn u ngi thp. Khu vc c t ln cng trn u ngi cao nht lchu u v Bc M v mc trung bnh lkhu vc Nam M.Xt trn phngdin n cng trn u ngi th n cng Vit Namcha cao v c cho l thptrong khu vc chu v trn th gii nhng xt vn cng trn tng GDP th n cng Vit Nam c nh gi mc trung bnh.T l n cng trn GDP v n cng trn ungi u ch phn nh mtcch phin din mc an ton hay ri ro ca n cng. Bi

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l, v nh Hy Lp,n cng khong 100% GDP b ph sn th Nht Bn,n cng trn ungi c l cao nht th gii vn c coi l an ton. Do , anton ca n cng khng ch ph thuc vo nhng con s nu trn m ch yuph thuc vsc khe ca nn kinh t v kh nng tr n.Vy n cng Vit Namnhng nm gn y l an ton hay nguy him? cn l mt cu hi gy tranh ci cho tt

c cc nh kinh t hc trong nc vtrn th gii.Page2of21Quc giaN cng tnh trn ungi (USD)

N h tB n 8 36 9 7 I ce l a n d4 3 2 8 6

A n h2 6 60 2 Ph p 31 7 8 5M a l a ys i a 4 18 4 C a na d a 37 0 0 0M 27 6 83 T h iL a n 20 6 4 P hi l i p p i ne s 1 0 7 1I n d o ne s i a 74 3 T r u ngQ u c 7 13 . 6 V i tN a m 5 8 0. 9 1

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NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02Trong c cu n cng ch yu l n di hn. V d nm 2011 b tr 85ngn tng tr n so vi 590 ngn t thu ngn sch (tng ng 15%) thvn an ton. Tuynhin, nu phn thu cn li sau khi tr n v chi thng xuynngy cng gim v tipcn n khng th vic vay n n ngng mt anton.Theo TS. T VnTrng, ng nhn nh an ton ti chnh quc giaang c nguy c vtngng cho php. Bi tnh n 31/12/2009, n cng sovi GDP chim 52,6%,

trong n Chnh ph chim 41,9%, trong khi quy nhca Th tng v ch tiu nChnh ph l 50%. Mc d n cng nm 2010 l52,6%, n nc ngoi chim38,8% v n cng l 57% GDP nm 2011.B Keiko Kubota, kinh t trng caNgn hng th gii (WB) ti Vit Nam nhn xt: Mc d mc n ca VitNam nh hn ngng nhng vn cth gp cc c sc khng lng c nhGDP thp hn so vi d tnh, hay dolm pht tng cao, t gi thay i, cc khond phng khng nh d ton, th slm n cng tng ln. Theo b ph i m bon l bn vng v khon n phi ln h mn h m Vi t Nam th kh ng

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ph i t t c c c kh o n n u ln hmnh.Cc chuyn gia ca WB hay IMFu cho rng n cng ca Vit Namvn l an ton. y ban Ti chnh - Ngn schthy rng, vi d bo kh nng vtc tng trng kinh t v thu ngn sch nh ncnm 2011, cng vi c cun cng ch yu l n di hn v hin vn khnng tr n nn n cng caVit Nam nm trong ngng an ton. Nhng do

d n hin mc cao, xuth c vay n trung v di hn vi li sut ui s gim dn, nn cn thayi c cu ngun vn, bo m tr n n hn, gimdn vay n. iu mu chtl phi tng cng hiu qu u t, m bo duy trcc ch s n trong giihn an ton, ph hp vi tim lc ca t nc, y banTi chnh - Ngn schca Quc hi nhn mnh.ng Alex Warren Rodr iguez,chuyn g ia Kinh t t rng ca Chngt r n h p h t t r i n l i n h p q u c( U N D P ) t i V i t N a m c h o r n g n u c h v o ngng n cng tnh trnGDP l cha . Bi Vit Nam cha th d bo cnhng iu s xy ra, m cnphi c mt thc o chun t cc nn kinh tkhc c hon cnh v iukin kinh t tng t. Dn v d t trng hp caArgentina, mt quc gia d c mc n cng di 60% v ngn sch ti chnhkh tt, nhng vn xy ra khng

hong n, chuyn gia Alex Warren Rodriguez phn tch: iu quan trng l chng taphi gim st c thc trng kinh t v m. N cng v n t xut pht t tnh hnh tichnh, da trn tnh hnh kinh tVi t Na m, th gi i . D o c n m r ng c cht hc s uy ngh v h i u v n v phn tch n. Khi , mi d on c tnhhung n c th xy ra. V d victng thu, c tc ng tt n ti chnh cng hin ti,nhng cng nh hng nkh nng bn vng ca ti chnh cng v di hn.Trng hp ca Argent ina, trong nhng nm 90 ca th k trc, cc c quan caChnh ph Argentina, ha ra chnh sch ti chnh cng rt tt, nh thm htngn sch di 3%, n cng tnh trn GDP di 60%, lm pht thp, vArgent ina cng l nc giu.Tuy nhin, mi vic thay i ch trong 3 4 nm, riro xy ra nh hngn t i chnh cng ca Argen tina, dn n cuc khnghong n nc ny.y l nhng v d cho ta thy tnh hnh ch thay i rtnhanh. N cng caVit Nam nm 2010 l 56,6% GDP, d n chnh phbng 44,3% GDP, d n quc gia bng 42,2% GDP. Vay n nc ngoi gim,vay n trong nc tng.Page1of21NHM 01-LP EC003_1_102_T02Mc d vy, mc d n chnh ph v n quc gia tng st mc trn chophp,iu hnh ngn sch v m bo an ninh ti chnh trong nm 2010 gp khkhn.Bn bo co thm tra (Ca ai? Vit v ci g?) cng ch ra rng, khin quc gia tng st mc an ton, vay n trong nc v nc ngoi gp khkhnv phi vay vi li sut cao, dn ti an ninh ti chnh quc gia ngtrc khkhn cho cc nm sau. Ngng n cng ca Vit Nam hn 50%. Du ccchuyn gia kinh tquc t cho rng, ng ng n cng hn 50% GDP ca Vitnam l c th chpnhn c, nhng Vit Nam khng th ch quan. Thc tcho thy ngng n hay quy m n ch l iu kin cn thit hn ch cc nguy c

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v ngn sch cth xy ra. Nh vy, trong khi tch lu t ni b nn kinh tthng qua ch tiu dnh ca quc gia lin tc gim th n cng lin tctng, ngun u t tngv ngn sch li ngy cng tr nn thm ht. Mcthm ht ngn sch Vit Nam vt xa ngng "bo ng " 5%. y lmc cn gy tranh ci. Thd, theo mc chun ca khi EUR, th thm ht

ngn sch khng c qu 3%GDP mi c xt l thnh vin ca Khi. Tt nhin,h phi tr gi nh khngho n g n c ng v a qu a v kh n g tu n th nh v y th eo t hng l q uc t , khin tnh bn vng ca n cng cng b gim st. Ncng ca M h in nay chim t i 90% GD P ( theo Wi ki l 9 3%) .Trong c ti trn 60% l do B Ti chnh M pht hnh tn/tri phiu ut r a n cngoi , cn 32% l n do s dng Qu An n inh x hi ( ch yu dngqu lng hu ca ngi M). Nh vy 60% "n" c u t v mang lil i nh uncho Ch nh ph M , mt phn c s dng l m ng un d t r bo lnh.i vi Vit Nam, ng lo hn c l vay n nhng lm n km hiu quv khnng tr n ngy cng kh khn hn. Nguy c thy r khng gi nitichnh quc gia trong ngng an ton. Thiu ht ngn sch ngy cng tng, tl chi ngn

sch nh nc thc hin so vi t l ngn sch Quc hi biu quytthng cch xa nhaukhong 20%.2.2.3. Ti tr n cng Vit NamB i u 4 : T h m h t n g n s c h c a V i t N a m v i c c n c trn

th gii. Ng u n : N g n h n g Th gii, Natixis, UB N g n s c h Q HM (2010).

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T n h n g g x y r a t r o n g t h c t i n , c h n g t a c n g n h n

n h n l i nhng g m bi chi ngn sch vi nhng u t qu hoang ph mkhng cnn g h n r i r o h a y k h n g o n g o c r i r o . V n h v T p o n C n g nghip Tu thy Vit Nam Vinashin vi s n lnti 86.000 t VND nhngthc cht l ti 120.000 t VND.Con tu ma Vinashin dotp on quc doanh qun l cha kp ra khivng vy trc sng gi vi mngay trc bi ng tu ca mnh li t di chc vi khon n khng l (hn100.000 ngn t ng) cho ngi dn laong ngho Vit Nam gii quyt!Trongbo co ca B k hoch v u t th con s GDP bnh qun ungi nm 2010 tiVit Nam c khong 1.200 USD, tc GDP ca c ncnm 20 10 c tkhong 103 t US D t h khon n c a Vinash in c xcnh tngng 6% GDP ca c nc nm 2010 . Con s GDP trn y ch lc tnh,

tc l c th t, c th khng t, t t l n Vinashin trn GDP cnc c th caohn 6%.Ring mt mnh Vinashin m khon n ch im t l 6% GPD,trongkhi , khi Doanh Nghip nh nc vi tim nng ti chnh v ngun lc tolnnhng mc li nhun thp, thm ch c doanh nghip l nhiu nm lin.Do, mc n ca cc doanh nghip nh nc thc s l mt mi lo ngi chonnkinh t.Hn na, trong nhng nm ti, nu nhng d n ang cn rt nhiu vnnhd n ng st cao tc Bc Nam (56 t USD), d n xy dng th (60t USD ) ,nh my i n h t nhn Ni nh Thun ( hn 10 t US D) c

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t hc hin th mc n cng s cn tng cao. Nh vy c th t hy vn nc ng ch a c quan t m n g mc ; cch tnh bi chi cha r rng. Vic vayn ca cc tp on c tnh vo bi chingn sch hay khng? T bi hc ca Vinashincho thy nu tp on ny b phsn th Chnh ph phi can thip v chu trch nhim vicc khon vay ca tpon. Tng bng ngm trong nhng mn n t bt

u ni ln v c tnht 300 triu USD n ca ring Vinashin bin thnhn cng ca qucgia.Ngy 15/9/2010, Vn phng Chnh ph k cng vntruyn t kinca Ph Th tng Nguyn Sinh Hng quyt nh cho Vinashinkhon tin 300triu USD tr n. Khi lng vay vn nc ngoi c chnhph bo lnhcho Vinas hin nm 2 009 mc gn 4 t USD, t ng gp4 l n m c 0, 91 t USD trong nm 2005. T trng n nc ngoi trong tngd n ca Chnh phcng tng ln mc 14,27% nm 2009, gp 2 lnmc 6 ,4 % nm 200 5 . n m2005- 2010, d n c Chnh ph bo lnh tng quacc nm. Bnh qun 5 nmqua t ng khong 40%/nm. Trong , n trong nctng khong 42%/nm, n nc ngoi tng khong 38%/nm. T l d n cChnh ph bo lnh so viGDP cng tng qua cc nm, bnh qun mc 7% GDP/nm,

trong , bo lnhvay n t rong nc mc 5% GDP/nm v bo lnh vay nnc ngai mc2% GDP/nm. Bo co ca Chnh ph Vit Nam ni nm 2010 c20/21 n vthuc khi tp on, tng cng ty 91 lm n c li, tr Vinashin. Nh vychngta thy c th c t r n g u t cng ca Vi t Nam q u qua nl iu , yu km, khng mang li hiu qu, nu cha mun ni cn thua l.