No. 1912-UNI NIGERIA NIGER...

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Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY F COPY Report No. 1912-UNI NIGERIA NIGER STATE BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT February 23, 1979 West Africa Agricultural Projects I Western Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Transcript of No. 1912-UNI NIGERIA NIGER...

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Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY F COPY

Report No. 1912-UNI

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

February 23, 1979

West Africa Agricultural Projects I

Western Africa Regional Office

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Naira (N)

US$ = N 0.65

N 1 US$1.54

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

Unless otherwise stated, all weights andmeasures in this report are metric.

1 metric ton = 0.98 long ton1 long ton = 1.016 metric ton

(= 2,240 lb)1 hectare = 2.47 acresI acre = 0.405 ha1 kilometre (km) = 0.62 mile

FISCAL YEAR

April 1 - March 31

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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

ABBREVIATIONS

AA - Agricultural AssistantABU - Ahmadu Bello UniversityADC - Area Development CenterAO - Agricultural OfficerAPMEPU - Agricultural Projects Monitoring, Evaluation and

Planning UnitAS - Agricultural SuperintendentBPEC - Bida Project Executive CommitteeBPMU - Bida Project Management UnitBPTCC - Bida Project Technical Coordination CommitteeBRRS - Badeggi Rice Research StationCDA - Controlled Droplet ApplicationCFU - Central Fertilizer UnitCP - FAO/IBRD Cooperative ProgrammeCRIN - Cocoa Research InstituteFADP - Funtua Agricultural Development ProjectFDA - Federal Department of AgricultureFDAR - Federal Department of Agricultural ResearchFDF - Federal Department of ForestryFDL - Federal Department of LivestockFDRD - Federal Department of Rural LivestockFMAWR - Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Water ResourcesFMG - Federal Military GovernmentFMF - Federal Ministry of FinanceFO - Field OverseersFSC - Farm Service CenterIAR - Institute of Agricultural ResearchICB - International Competitive BiddingIITA - International Institute of Tropical AgricultureLGA - Local Government AreaLGC - Local Government CouncilMEPU - Monitoring, Evaluation and Planning Unit, BPMUMNR - Ministry of Natural Resources - Niger StateMWH - Ministry of Works and HousingMTIC - Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperative - Niger StateNAFPP - National Accelerated Food Production ProgramNACB - Nigerian Agricultural and Co-operative BankNCRI - National Cereals Research InstituteNEPA - National Electric Power AuthorityNIFOR - Nigeria Institute for Oil Palm ResearchOER - Official Exchange RateOFN - Operation Feed the NationREB - Rural Electrification BoardROR - Rate of ReturnSER - Shadow Exchange RateSES - Smallholder Extension ServiceTHU - Tractor Hire UnitULV - Ultra Low Volume SprayersUPE - Universal Primary EducationWARDA - West Africa Rice Development Authority

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

I. BACKGROUND ............... ............................ . 1

II. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ...................... ........... . 1

III. NIGER STATE .............................................. 8

IV. PROJECT AREA ............................................ 10

A. Physical Features . .................... ... .......... . 10

B. Infrastructure and Social Services .................. 11C. Socio-Economic Features ..... ........................ 12D. Land Use, Farm Structure and Farm Enterprises ....... 14

V. THE PROJECT .............................................. 16

A. Summary Description ................................... 16B. Detailed Features ................................... 17C. Cost Estimates ...................................... 23D. Proposed Financing .......... ........................ 26

E. Programming and Budgeting ........................... 27F. Accounts and Audits ................................. 28

G. Procurement and Disbursement ........................ 28

VI. TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTION SPECIFICATIONS .... ............. 29

VII. DEMAND, MARKETING AND PRICES ............................. 33

A. Demand and Marketing ............................. ....... 33

B. Prices ............................................... 33

VIII. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION .................................. 34

A. Organization and Management .... .................... 34B. Staffing ... ........................................ 35

C. Farm Credit Administration .... ..................... 36D. Post-Project Management ..... ....................... 37

This report is based on the findings of an IBRD mission consisting of Messrs.

Farruk and Hachero (Bank) and Messrs. Babutzka, Gunasekara and Rice (Consult-

ants) who visited Nigeria from September 23 to October 24, 1977 to appraisethe project. In addition Messrs. Bolduc and Ody (Bank) contributed to thereport at Headquarters.

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Page No.

IX. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ............... ........................ 38

A. Financial Implications for Farmers ................... 38B. Cost Recovery and Financial Implications for

Government ............ ........ .0......... ................. 40

X. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ............ ............ s ......... ... .. 41

XI. RECOMMENDATIONS AND AGREEMENTS REACHED .................... 43

Tables in Text

Table 1 Page 19. Schedule of Irrigation DevelopmentTable 2 Page 25. Summary of Project CostsTable 3 Page 26. Proposed Financing PlanTable 4 Page 31. Yield and Aggregate ProductionTable 5 Page 39. Net Returns to Farmers

ANNEXES

Annex 1 - Table 1 Land Use, Farm Size and Production in the Project Area.Table 2 Crop Development ('000 ha)Table 3 Crop Production ('000 metric tons)Table 4 Agronomic RecommendationsTable 5 Farm Input RequirementsTable 6 Phasing of Road Construction and MaintenanceTable 7 Production Rates and Plant Requirements forConstruction Units.

Annex 2 - Table 1 Summary of Project CostsTable 2 Plant, Vehicles and Equipment CostsTable 3 Buildings and HousesTable 4 Summary of Irrigation Development CostsTable 5 Staff SalariesTable 6 Incremental Farm Input CostTable 7 Summary of Medium Term Loan - Seasonal Credit RequirementsTable 8 Project Operating CostsTable 9 Schedule of Building Unit CostsTable 10 Detailed Financing Plan - By Expense CategoryTable 11 Disbursement ScheduleTable 12 Illustrative Cash Flow - Niger State Government

Annex 3 - Table 1 Financial and Economic Prices - Domestic RetailTable 2 Estimated Financial and Economic PricesTable 3 Crop Budget - 1 ha RiceTable 4 Crop Budget - 1 ha SorgumTable 5 Crop Budget - 1 ha MaizeTable 6 Crop Budget - 1 ha GroundnutTable 7 Crop Budget - 1 ha BambaraTable 8 Crop Budget - 1 ha CowpeaTable 9 Crop Budget - 1 ha YamTable 10 Crop Budget - 1 ha CassavaTable 11 Crop Budget - 1 ha Cotton

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ANNEXES

Annex 4 - Table 1 Economic Farm Input CostsTable 2 Calculation of Rate of ReturnTable 3 Economic Value of Incremental ProductionTable 4 Rate of Return for Formal and Informal Schemes

Annex 5 - Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File.

CHARTS

World Bank 18603 Project Organization

MAPS

IBRD 13708R1 Nigeria: IBRD-assisted Agricultural Projects13265 Typical Swamp Layout13306R Project Area: Roads and Proposed Agricultural Centers13307 Physical, Geological and Rainfall13309R General Features

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

I. BACKGROUND

1.01 The Federal Military Government of Nigeria (FMG) has requestedBank Group assistance in financing an agricultural development project in theLavun, Agaie, Lapai and Gbako Local Government Council (LGC) areas of NigerState. This report appraises a project designed to increase the productivity,incomes and standards of living of the farm families in these areas throughfarm support services, better farming practices and infrastructural andinstitutional improvements. Approximately 61,000 ha of arable annual cropswould be improved under the project. From experience of similar ongoingprojects it is estimated that 60,000 farm families (about 75% of total) wouldbenefit directly from project intervention.

1.02 This project originated from a proposed rice development projectfor the Bida area, part of the former North Western State, and was firstidentified by FAO/IBRD Cooperative Program (CP) in November 1974. The CPwas requested to assist in preparing a project covering the main rice-growingareas of Bida and Agaie/Lapai divisions. Terms of reference for the studywere finalized in October 1975, but the breakup of the North Western State(February 1976) prevented full project preparation. Subsequently, the thenFederal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development requested the Bank toidentify additional agricultural development projects similar to those innorthern Nigeria (see para 2.19). In October 1976, a Bank identificationmission reviewed the previously identified rice project in the Bida area andrecommended that it should be expanded to include other major crops andinfrastructure development. A CP preparation mission visited Nigeria inJanuary/February 1977 and submitted its report in July 1977. Meanwhile, alocal firm of consultants (ENPLAN) commissioned by the Federal Departmentof Agriculture (FDA) completed irrigation engineering studies, a resourceinventory and a socio-economic survey of the project area and submitted itsreport in September 1977.

II. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

2.01 Nigeria. The Federal Republ c of Nigeria comprises 19 States andcovers a total land area of 924,000 km . Total 1977 population is estimatedat roughly 79 million, which is nearly 20% of the total for the African con-tinent. Average GDP per capita (estimated at around US$420 in 1977) is lowand unevenly distributed; income in rural areas is considerably lower.

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2.02 Economic Trends. The Nigerian economy is dominated by the oilsector, which accounts for about 30 percent of GDP, over 90 percent ofexport earnings and 80 percent of Government revenue. The increase in oilprices in 1973/74 enabled the Government to embark on a massive investmentprogram and this contributed to GNP growth averaging 6 percent per annumbetween 1973 and 1977. However, growth was concentrated in those sectorsthat benefited in particular from the rapid expansion in Government ex-penditure, i.e., infrastructure, education and large scale manufacturing,and performance of the productive sectors, notably agriculture, has beendisappointing.

2.03 The unprecedented rise in public spending (federal current expendi-ture increased from US$1.1 billion in 1973/74 to US$4.2 billion in 1977/78,and capital expenditure from US$1.2 billion to US$9.7 billion), quickly ex-hausted the oil-produced internal and external surpluses, and Nigeria nowfaces considerable fiscal and balance of payments constraints. The economywas unable to generate goods and services at the rate demanded, and conse-quently the domestic price level rose by an average of 26% per annum between1975 and 1977. Oil production in Nigeria is not expected to rise much abovethe present level during the 1980's and overall growth prospects for the eco-nomy are therefore considered modest.

Sector Characteristics

2.04 General. Approximately 61% of Nigeria's population is dependenton agriculture, which accounts for about 23% of GDP, 5% of total exportearnings and 62% of non-oil exports. Agricultural production is almostentirely in the hands of smallholders whose levels of technology and produc-tion efficiency are low.

2.05 Cropping patterns vary within the country's main ecological zones.In the forest zones of the south, where rainfall is bimodally distributedover a wet season of up to eight months, the agricultural economy is largelybased on tree crops with annual staples providing subsistence and subsidiaryincome. In the Guinea and Sudan Savannah zones of the north, rainfall ismonomodal within a six month spread and production is based almost entirely onannual crops. Between these two zones is an area known as the "middle belt",supporting southern Guinea and transitional forest savannah vegetation and amix of annual and tree crops. However, rainfall quantity and spread are inade-quate for successful economic exploitation of the latter. Little developmentattention has been directed towards the "middle belt", which forms an impor-tant food producing reserve for the nation.

2.06 Growth of the agricultural sector has been disappointing, averag-ing 0.9% per annum from 1970-76, equivalent to only half the average popula-tion growth. This same period has been characterized firstly by rapidlyrising domestic food prices as demand, resulting from population and incomegrowth, outstripped domestic supply, and secondly by a marked decline intraditional agricultural export crops apart from cocoa. During the sameperiod total exports (including petroleum) increased from N 852 million toN 6.6 million; importation of food and live animals over the same period rosefrom N 50 million to N 440 million, and to N 790 million in 1977.

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Federal Sector Institutions

2.07 Agricultural development in Nigeria is the responsibility ofnineteen State Governments and the Federal Ministry of Agricultural and

Water Resources (FMAWR). The FMAWR is responsible for coordination of agri-

cultural development activities and national policy for the sector and sub-sectors. Thirty percent of the Federal funds for agricultural development isdistributed equally among the States and the remaining 70% on the basis of

population. Additional subventions are made for special projects; for

example, 25% of the Bank financed projects' costs are presently borne by theFMAWR. Within FMAWR the FDA (Federal Department of Agriculture) is concernedprimarily with tree crop development, the National Accelerated Food Production

Program (NAFPP), Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) and training, while the FDRD(Federal Department of Rural Development) is responsible for the planning and

implementation of integrated rural/ agricultural development programs.The FDA and FDRD have established project monitoring, planning and evaluation

units at Benin City and Kaduna, respectively, with Bank technical assistance.

2.08 The NACB (Nigerian Agricultural and Co-operative Bank), which was

established by the FMG in November 1972, is the first and only Federal in-

stitution organized solely to provide finance for agriculture. Its initialauthorized share capital of N 1 million was subsequently raised to N 2 millionand has been fully paid up. NACB is fully dependent on Government funding

through Federal Ministry of Finance (FMF) loans and Central Bank discountfacilities. It charges 5-7% to its borrowers as interest, which bears no

relation to the real cost of capital in Nigeria nor to NACB's overall lending

cost. Its lending operations are normally restricted to large commercialfarms, plantations and other financial intermediaries for onlending. As ofJune 30, 1976 it had approved 91 loans for a total N 86 million. Long-termplans and policies for NACB, particularly with respect to interest rate and

direct involvement in lending operations to small farmers are yet to bedefined. The Bank's only involvement with NACB as a channel for farm lendingis associated with the Livestock Project (Loan 1091-UNI), which has not been

successful. At this stage it would be more prudent to administer creditdirectly at project level (see paras. 8.08-8.12) until NACB's operationsbecome more flexible and effective. Meanwhile, the Bank is maintaining adialogue on agricultural credit with NACB and Federal authorities on the basisof ongoing sector work, the object being to set the stage for possible directBank support to NACB as soon as circumstances warrant it.

2.09 Government intervention in marketing and pricing of agriculturalcrops has always been an important sector operation. Until recently, theofficial marketing system for statutory crops consisted of the NorthernStates Marketing Board (responsible for cotton and groundnuts), the Cocoa

Marketing Board and a number of State Marketing Boards integrated at thenational level with the Nigerian Produce Marketing Company (NPMC). In

April 1977, these were replaced by seven Commodity Boards, each dealing

with one particular commodity or groups of commodities. With this, virtuallyall major export and non-export crops have been brought within the purviewof the statutory marketing regulations. The Boards do not enjoy monopsony

powers, except in respect of some export crops, and market participation is

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unrestricted. The Boards are expected to operate a system cif rural buying andprimary assembly similar to their predecessor Marketing Boards, i.e., througha string of licensed buying agents and their sub-agents, and are also expectedto administer government's minimum producer price program. However, guaran-teed minimum prices are usually lower than market prices (see Annex 3 Tables1,2) which, together with financial, managerial and logistic constraints,precludes substantial market intervention by these bodies. Therefore, exceptfor cocoa, coffee, rubber and cotton, public sector participation in andimpact on agricultural produce marketing (and prices) is minimal.

2.10 The universities of Ibadan, Ife, Nigeria (Nsukka) and AhmaduBello (ABU) offer graduate/undergraduate courses in agriculture and conductresearch. Additionally, the Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) atSamaru, the Federal Department of Agricultural Research (FDAR) and the Inter-national Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) at Ibadan, are engaged infood crop (cereals, grain, legumes, oil seeds, root crops) and cotton re-search, while the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) at Ibadan and theNigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) at Benin are engaged in cocoaand oil palm research. Generally, the research programs of Nigerian institu-tions are insufficiently geared towards solving the practical problems facedby the farmers and there has been limited interaction with agriculturalextension activities (see also para 3.06).

Development Strategy

2.11 Government is aware of the need to improve performance in theagricultural sector and to invest the substantial revenues from oil, an assetthat is being depleted, to expand and diversify the economy in which agricul-ture will remain a dominant sector for the foreseeable future. In the revisedThird Five-Year Development Plan, a total of N 3.0 billion is earmarked forthe sector to support a targeted growth rate of 5%. The program includesdevelopment of several major river basins for irrigation, dissemination ofmodern farming techniques to smallholders, improved input distribution andmarketing services and support for various integrated development projects.Rural development will be promoted with complementary investments in secondaryand feeder roads, rural electrification, health and other social services.

2.12 Government's main short term objective is to improvre internalprice stability in basic foodcrops and to ensure adequate food suppliesto the rapidly expanding urban centers. Beyond this aim of assured domesticfood supplies, Government's longer-term objectives are to create a prosperousand efficient agricultural industry sufficient to reduce population drift tourban centers and to revive the role of Nigeria as an agricultural exporter.

2.13 During the past two years (1977-78), the implementation of new localgovernment reforms have been taking place. The reforms are significant, bothpolitically and from a standpoint of practical rural development, and ineffect replace a more traditional local government administration at the

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subregional level by elected Local Government Councils (LGCs). The reform

is thus intended to increase popular participation in the conduct of local

government. In undertaking this reform, the Federal Government recognizes the

importance of decentralized administration and the power of local opinion if

the long-term development effort is to be successful. The powers and respon-

sibilities of LGCs are quite considerable and involve all aspects of develop-

ment from agriculture, education, health, to roads and water supplies. It is

quite clear that generally most states intend that the LGC will, in the long

term, control and operate agricultural extension services which will have a

yet undetermined impact on the structure and role of State Ministries of

Agriculture. While this development has far-reaching implications, LGCs are

expected, during the next decade, to face difficulties in securing the ser-

vices of sufficient numbers of competcnt and experienced staff. Furthermore,

the lack of properly coordinated and planned policies, and deficiencies in

funding, are likely to prevent their smooth development. Nevertheless, LGCs

are a practical reality and agricultural development projects in Nigeria will

have to make allowance for their involvement and, where possible, provide

support for their development.

Development Constraints

2.14 Undoubtedly, the main short-term development constraint in the

sector is the lack of effective agricultural support services. Produce

evacuation is hampered by lack of feeder roads, and many farmers have to

travel long distances to the unevenly distributed and unreliable sources of

inputs.

2.15 At the present highly subsidized prices, the demand for farm in-

puts (in particular, for fertilizer) is high and at times unsatisfied; in

many areas this has encouraged a thriving black market. However, even within

areas of relatively high consumption of purchased inputs, physical yields

are still low and it is likely that many farm operations would be unviable

at economic prices.

2.16 Agricultural support services remain almost entirely in the hands

of the public sector, and present Government policies, inter alia on input

subsidies, are not sufficiently geared to encouraging vigorous private sec-

tor participation. It is, however, highly likely that given Nigeria's size

and massive development program and the existence of an economic system

largely based on private enterprise, Government will ultimately wish to

divest itself of responsibilities such as input distribution and produce

marketing; this would require creation of an economic framework appropri-

ate to profitable involvement of private entrepreneurs in the agriculture

service sector. In addition, a greater effort is required, particularly by

the Nigerian agricultural research institutions, to improve the analysis of

technical, economic and financial aspects of farming innovations for adapta-

tion to the different social and ecological conditions of Nigeria. This in-

formation is an essential background to a sound input supply policy and the

development of appropriate delivery systems.

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2.17 Agricultural development in Nigeria is taking place against a back-ground of rapid development in the non-agricultural sectors and rising stan-dards of education, both of which lead people to react against the poor re-turns to labor and the drudgery associated with traditional agriculture. Re-cent years have seen a marked drift of young people away from rural areas anda sharp rise in wage rates for hired labor. Ultimately, a prosperous agricul-ture industry, capable of reducing this drift, would only be achieved throughapplication of advanced farming techniques that would provide significant in-creases in income per man-day. This is likely to lead to greater mechaniza-tion and the utilization of modern herbicides and other chemicals, that willincrease yields and reduce labor requirement. Eventually larger farming units,either group or individually operated, are likely to evolve.

2.18 The Federal Government is generally aware of these constraints andof the need for further improvement in planning and executive capabilities atboth State and Federal levels. Furthermore, there is a dearth of technicaland managerial personnel at all levels, which suggests a need for greater ra-tionalization of the responsibilities of public agencies and also much closercoordination in the activities of such agencies, if the effectiveness of avail-able manpower is to be maximized.

2.19 Bank Role and Key Sector Issues. Total Bank commitments for agricul-ture in 1971-78 are US$292.0 million and encompass 13 projects (See map IBRD13708R). The first loans in Nigeria were for the now-completed Western StateCocoa Project (1971, Loan 764-UNI, US$7.2 million) and the Second CocoaProject (1974, Loan 1045-UNI, US$20.0 million), which is being successfullyimplemented in Oyo, Ondo, Ogun and Bendel States. These were followed bythree integrated agricultural development projects in the north: Funtua Proj-ect (1974, Loan 1092-UNI, US$29.0 million), Gusau Project (1974, Loan 1099-UNI,US$19.0 million), and Gombe Project (1974, Loan 1164-UNI, US$21.0 million); aRice Project (1974, Loan 1103-UNI, US$17.5 million) in Anambra, Imo and CrossRiver States; a Livestock Project (1974, Loan 1091-UNI, US$21.0 million); threeOil Palm projects: Nucleus Estate/Smallholder Oil Palm Project, Ondo State(1975, Loan 1192-UNI, US$17.0 million), Nucleus Estate/Smallholder Oil PalmProject, Bendel State (1975, Loan 1183-UNI, US$29.5 million) and SmallholderOil Palm Project, Imo State (1975, Loan 1191-UNI, US$19.0 million). In 1977the Bank approved two new integrated agricultural development projects, Lafia(Loan 1454-UNI, US$27.0 million) and Ayangba (Loan 1455-UNI US$35.0 million)located in the important middle belt zone of Nigeria, and most recently in1978 the Rivers State Oil Palm Project (Loan 1591-UNI, US$30.0 million). Theprojects have had varying degrees of success. The two cocoa projects weresuccessful during the development and establishment stage, and over 100,000acres of cocoa has been satisfactorily replanted. The oil paLm projects arenow picking up after early delays in establishing management structures andproblems of lack of delegation of authority by the State Agriculture Admin-istration. The livestock project has made a disappointing beginning, havingproved too complex and dispersed to be managed from the Federal level. Over-all management proved weak and difficulties arose in arranging effectivecooperation with NACB. Recently (December 1978), Government has contractedthe management of the project to a consultant firm, experienced in the field

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of livestock projects in Nigeria and other parts of West Africa. Moreover

FMAWR is taking steps to remove obstacles currently preventing NACB from meet-ing its obligations to the project. It is expected that with these and other

proposed actions, the project will soon be reestablished and become fully

operational. The first three integrated agricultural development projects

(Funtua, Gusau and Gombe) have completed about three quarters of their de-

velopment period and are considered successful. Studies by the built-in

evaluation unit (APMEPU), a direct responsibility of FDRD, indicate that these

projects have achieved significant gains in production and social development.

2.20 Experience of implementing existing projects has reinforced Bank

concern over a number of critical policy issues, resolution of which is vital

for medium and long-term sector development and which must be taken in con-

sideration in future projects. First: while under present conditions subsi-

dies on selected on-farm developments may be desirable, the current policy

of subsidies on nondurable inputs (fertilizer, insecticides, herbicides),

irrigation water rates, tractor hire charges, interest rates and other items

is encouraging inefficient resource use, discouraging development of farm

support services by the private sector and straining Government's fiscal and

administrative resources. Second: input procurement and distribution has

been centralized at the Federal level, resulting in inefficient supply to

farmers and a needless additional burden on the already overstrained agricul-

ture public administration. Third: State and Federal funding procedures are

not yet satisfactory, and this has created severe problems for project execu-

tion. Fourth: credit policies and the performance of NACB (para. 2.08) have

not yet provided a viable financial framework for the development of either

smallholders' or commercial agriculture. Finally, the lack of experienced man-

power at managerial, administrative and technical levels is a major constraint

in the planning and implementation of development programs, often compoundedby poor manpower utilization and frequent switching of staff.

2.21 The appraisal, negotiation and supervision of existing agricul-tural projects in Nigeria has given the Bank and Government an opportunity

for dialogue on key sectoral issues. The Government generally shares Bank

concerns though some differences in approach remain, for instance over the

question of continuing input subsidies. Because the issues in question are

politically sensitive and often administratively difficult to resolve, it

would be unreasonable to expect their prompt and simultaneous resolution. Anagriculture-policy-oriented sector mission has recently returned from Nigeria

and is expected to produce additional factual material on which furtherprogress may be possible in the exchange of views between Government and the

Bank. Meanwhile, Bank-assisted projects will necessarily involve specialarrangements in some areas such as Federal and State flow of funds, reim-

bursement of input subsidies, credit and input procurement, all of whichare deemed essential to the successful implementation of such projects.

2.22 As to management and administration constraints, the short-term

solution adopted in Bank-supported projects in Nigeria is internationalrecruitment, and the establishment of special project management units. Along-term solution must necessarily involve the training of Nigerian manage-

ment staff and the restructering of service institutions. To this end, at the

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request of Government, and in addition to the already substantial trainingcomponent of ongoing projects, the Bank has appraised and negotiated anAgricultural and Rural Management Training Institute Project. ConcerningFederal and State planning and monitoring capability, the Government vlews theAgricultural Projects Monitoring, Evaluation and Planning Unit (APMEPU)created under the Funtua Agricultural Development Project (1092-UNI) andexpanded under the Ayangba Agricultural Development Project (Loan 1455-UNI) asa first step toward creating a planning and monitoring capability for ruraldevelopment in the Ministry of Agriculture. At this stage, APMEPU's planningcapability is in its infancy and is confined primarily to project identifica-tion and to providing assistance to State agricultural planning units.Project preparation is normally undertaken by consultants, and this willprobably continue to be the case for some years to come. The monitoringarrangements for the present project (para 5.15) will operate in closeliaison with APMEPU.

III. NIGER STATE

General

3.01 Niger State, previously part of the 5ormer North Western State, wascreated in February 1976. It covers 65,200 km (7% of the Federation). TheNiger River forms the southern boundary and the proposed federal capital isto be sited on the south eastern boundary occupying part of what was theAbhuja division. The State capital is Minna. Administratively, the Stateis divided into nine local government areas (LGA) each controlled by anLGC. Total population is estimated at 1.72 million, 2% of the Fel erationtotal. Popula5ion density is generally low averaging about 26/km but risingto over 100/km in certain areas. The State is one of the most sparselypopulated of the Federation. The economy is based on agriculture in whichabout 90% of the population participate.

Agricultural Sector

3.02 The State lies entirely in the Guinea savannah zone and rainfallvaries between 1,000 mm and 1,400 mm with a five to six months dry season.Farming systems across the state vary with rainfall. In the south, riceis the dominant cash crop whilst yams and cotton dominate around Minna inthe northeast, and Kontagora in the west, respectively. Main cash cropsexported out of the state are rice, cotton, groundnuts and sheanuts. Sugaris grown in the small valleys and a sugar plantation is being developed inthe Sunti area, south of Lavun LGA. Forestry plantations are being developedto supply a pulpwood factory in the neighboring Kwara State; potentialfor livestock development is limited due to tsetse infestation, but fishingin the Niger and Kaduna rivers is an important occupation for about 7% of theState population.

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3.03 The State Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) has five divisions:agriculture (including planning, mechanical services and fisheries); animalhusbandry; irrigation; forestry and produce inspection. Capital allo-cations to MDNR under the State's five year development plan (April 1975 -March 1980) total N 46.5 million (about 14% of total plan outlay), of whichN 20.2 million are allocated to the agriculture division, N 17.0 million toirrigation, N 6.2 million to animal husbandry, N 2.4 million to forestry andN 0.4 million to produce inspection. The Agriculture Division, primarilyresponsible for crop extension and input supply services, has a field staffcurrently including nine graduate agricultural officers (AO), 27 agricul-tural superintendents (AS), 56 agricultural assistances (AA), 147 fieldoverseers (FO), and 25 home economics instructors. The large area covered,the low ratio of field level extension staff to farmers (average about1:1,200), and poor logistic support result in farmers having little contactwith extension staff and render extension efforts virtually ineffective.The extension staff are also responsible for determining farmers' requirementsfor fertilizers and agro-chemicals and for seed multiplication and seedlingproduction, as well as bulking and distribution of all inputs and supervisionof tractor hire operations.

3.04 The Tractor Hire Unit (THU) is organized to provide mechanical landpreparation services (disc-plowing, ridging and harrowing) to all farmers,but the principal beneficiaries are large commercial and group farms. Currentcharges (N 6.00/ha for plowing, N 5.20 for ridging upland and N 2.50 forharrowing rice fields) involve at least a 65% subsidy and therefore demandfor these services is high and generally outstrips currrent organizational andequipment capabilities. During 1977, THU cultivated about 3,500 ha (70% onuplands) which was 75% higher than in 1974. The unit has many inoperativetractors (about 40%) and consequently, low output and high operating costs.In 1976 average operating cost per operational tractor was about N 1,600 whileincome realized was only N 500. In the medium term, Government should aim todivest itself of this unit in favor of more efficient and properly servicedcommercial operators.

3.05 The first attempt to provide short term credit to farmers inNiger State was made in 1975/76 through the NACB Farmers' Credit Scheme.The scheme was operated by MNR until June 1, 1977 when it was transferredto the State Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives (MTIC). Thecooperative movement in Niger State is, however, very weak and almost all ofthe 240 primary credit societies are inoperative. MTIC is reorganizingthese cooperatives through accounting and management assistance; however,it is too early to assess the impact of this effort.

3.06 The National Cereals Research Institute (NCRI) undertakes appliedrice research at the Badeggi Rice Research Station (BRRS), whilst upland cropresearch is done by the Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) on itsoutstation at Mokwa. The IITA and West Africa Rice Development Association(WARDA) also participate in trials at BRRS. Research programs primarilyconsist of trials on varietal improvement, fertilizer, herbicide and insecticide

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application, intercropping, cultural and post-harvest practices. Under theNAFPP some onfarm trials are conducted in the State, but in general practicalfarmer related experimental work is inadequate, and interaction betweenresearch, extension and farmers is generally absent. Technical supervisionand management of the BRRS is reasonable, but the Mokwa station is in a poorstate lacking direction, trained personnel, equipment and funds.

3.07 The State does not have a school of agriculture, and except forlow level training, has to rely on institutions outside the State, such asABU (for graduates), the agricultural colleges at Samaru, Kabba (for agricul-tural assistants), and Bakura (for irrigation agronomists). An agriculturalcollege designed to offer diploma courses is planned for Mokwa. Lowlevel extension workers undergo four-months training at the Farm TrainingCenter at Bida (30 student capacity). There are five farm institutes (eachwith a capacity of 20) for training farmers' sons; these offer eight-monthcourses and on completion students are given a N 90 grant plus fertilizer tostart their own farms, which are intended to serve as demonstration farms.Some supervision is provided at the initial stage but this is generallyinadequate and the impact of the training is negligible.

IV. PROJECT AREA

A. Physical Features

General

4.01 The project area (see IBRD Map 13309) includes th2e Lavun, Gbako,

Agaie and Lapai LGAs of Niger State, covers some 17,000 km (26% of NigerState) and includes 40% of the state's population. It is generally of aboveaverage agricultural potential, and in parts is comparatively densely popu-lated. It includes an important rice producing zone and, compared to theremaining five LGAs, is ecologically best suited for improvements for a widerange of field crops. Additionally, major irrigation development by the Statehas been planned for the river basins in the project area and the proposedproject would help ensure the basic agricultural services and infrastructureto support those schemes.

Topography and Soils

4.02 Over 75% of the area has gentle to moderately undulating plainsbetween 60 and 250 meters above sea level. The plain is dissected by a seriesof streams and depositional river valleys associated with the Kaduna and theGbako, the two main tributaries of the Niger river. Below 60 m, the plaingives way to the upper and lower Niger river terraces. The upper terraces aregenerally flat, seasonally flooded and are up to 10 km wide. The lowerterraces are intersected by water courses, or low cutoffs and are largelyinaccessible during the rains. Hills, rocky outcrops and ironpans arescattered throughout the area (details at Annex 1, Table 1(a)).

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4.03 Over 90% of the area is underlain by Nupe sandstone, the rest bybasement complex. The upland soils overlie thick sandstone; at higher ele-vations they are normally ferrosols but at lower levels become ferruginoustropical soils. The soils are generally slightly acid (PH 6.5), low to verylow in exchangeable cations and cation exchange capacity, low in organicmatter and highly permeable. The soils are sandy and easily degradable,cannot sustain crop yields for long periods and recuperate slowly underfallow. About 60% of the upland is suitable for growing a wide range of cropsbut requires fertilizer and careful soil management. The lower Niger terraceshave moderately deep to very deep loamy soils with some sandy profiles, andare generally weakly developed alluviums with gleyed lower layers and are oflimited agricultural value. The upper Niger terraces are hydromorphic allu-viums, subject to water logging due to their level topography and the presenceof hard pan layers. Textures vary betwen coarse sandy loams to clays, nutrientstatus is good and PH 6.0; most soils are suitable for rice and, in theheavier pockets, sugar cane. The river valleys contain hydromorphic soils,(usually loams over clays) and although subject to seasonal flooding they aresuitable for cultivation. The soils overlying the basement complex are coarsesands or sandy clays and are generally infertile.

Climate

4.04 Mean annual rainfall at Bida and Baro is over 1,220 mm concentratedbetween April and October, with either a single peak in September or twopeaks in July and September. Rainfall increases to about 1,400 mm in the eastand falls to 1,000 mm in the west (Mokwa). Total annual rainfall is reliable,the standard deviation being only 13 to 18% of the mean, and the 25%, 75% and90% probabilities being within tolerable limits for crops grown in the area.Drought periods during the wet season (180-205 days) are rare. Except in thedrier western areas, temperatures hardly fall below 200c. Evaporation averagesabout 1,200-1,600 mm annually. Sunshine hours and the related net radiationdisplay marked seasonal variations with the trough in August; this is par-ticularly so in Bida where sunlight falls to 1 hour and net radiation to130 cal/cm2 per day.

Vegetation

4.05 The project area lies within the southern Guinea savannah vege-tation zone. Much of the natural forest has been denuded by slash-and-burnagriculture and large areas comprise open savannah woodland with 5'-10'high coarse grasses. Deciduous trees and palm groves predominate in mostriver valleys.

B. Infrastructure and Social Services

Roads and Communications

4.06 The project area is principally served by road and railroad; watertransport is of negligible importance. The road network consists of 488 km of

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federal roads, 368 km of state roads, 450 km of LGC roads, and innumerable

small community tracks and foot paths. Only about 80% of the federal roadsare suitable for year round use; nearly half were constructed to unacceptable

standards and require improvement. All state roads are earth r3ads and only40% of them are passable year round, while 20% of the LGC and community roads

are useable throughout the year. Maintenance and construction of rural roadsare the responsibility of the four LGCs; however, staff, equipment, and

financial constraints severely limit their performance. There is a smallairstrip at Bida but no scheduled services.

Power, Water Supply, Health Services and Schools

4.07 Bida and Badeggi have electricity provided by the National ElectricPower Authority (NEPA). Supplies are erratic, generating capacity does

not match local demand and some areas are frequently without power. Threeadditional generators were expected at the end of 1977, but their installationhas been delayed. The Rural Electrification Board (REB) was expected toinstall generators in Agaie, Lapai and Kutigi by the end of 1978.

4.08 Bida, Lemu, Doko, Kutigi, Mokwa and Badeggi have piped watersupplies; other areas depend on streams or dug wells (about 800 in the projectarea; 1.2 mm in diameter and 10-15 mm deep). The Niger State Water Board isresponsible for water supply, well construction and maintenance. It expectsto construct about 150 additional village wells in the project area by 1980and the Bida division of the Water Board is adequately staffed and equippedfor this.

4.09 Health services and facilities are limited, consisting of a 280-bedhospital in Bida, 35 clinics and 4 health centers in the outlying areas.Malaria and sleeping sickness are endemic while some incidence of Bilharziaand Guinea worm is also reported. Onchocerciasis is not common in most areas,but incidence is reportedly high in the Abhuja division to the east. Underthe current five-year plan, five additional health centers and a 22-bedhospital at Mokwa are to be constructed. A federal project to eliminatesleeping sickness is operating in the Lavun and Gbako LGAs, while a pilotmalaria control project is to be started shortly.

4.10 The Universal Primary Education program (UPE) is making progressin the area and there are 313 schools (116 in Gbako, 106 in Lavun and 91 inEtswan), each with two classes of about 40 pupils. There are five secondary

schools and five teacher training institutions but post-primary educationopportunities are still inadequate. A vocational training school is plannedin the Bida area with assistance from Bulgaria; some staff including Bulgariantechnicians are in post but instruction has not yet started.

C. Socio-Economic Features

Demographic Characteristics

4.11 Total population is estimated at about 700,000, with 80% (or560,000) comprising the rural population. Bida town, with 86,000 inhabitants,

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represents the major urban concentration. The majority of the rural populationis located in villages with populations of 50-150 people and hamlets with nomore than 30 residents; average density of the farming populating is esti-

mated at about 30/km but this varies throughout the project area. Govern-ment data on demographic features are lacking but using satellite imagery,photographs and random ground checks it was estimated that 2over 50% of thepopulation is located in densities of about 109 persons/km , and 40% indensities ranging between 25 and 50 persons/km . About a third of the pro-ject area is uninhabited. Eighty-five percent of the population are Nupeswith Hausas and nomadic Fulanis comprising small but important groups.Language is predominantly Nupe and religion Islam. The average farm familyconsists of seven persons and the project area contains about 80,000 farmfamilies. The agricultural population is stable; outward migration from theproject area is minimal and limited to the drift of young males to urbanareas. Inward migration from the north during the dry season is traditional,but is probably small in the Bida area. The nomadic Fulani migrate souththrough the area as the dry season advances.

4.12 Agriculture, fishing and forestry provide the main employment withthe former providing work for 5-6 months, or up to 9 months where fadamarice is cultivated. Some 6,000 farm families (about 8% of total) earn theirliving from inland fishing. Alternative employment exists on a very limitedscale and primarily consist of transport, construction work, retail trade,secondary agricultural employment in rice mills, oilseed crushing, etc..There is no reliable data on income levels in the area; rural wage rates rangebetween N 1.80 - N 2.00 (US$2.8 - US$3.1) per day excluding food. Missionestimates indicate that the net farm income of an average 3.1 ha farm familywould be about N 415 equivalent to N 60 (US$92) per capita.

Land Tenure

4.13 A new Land Use Decree was promulgated on March 29, 1978 which willput all agricultural land in Nigeria under the control of local governments.A Land Allocation Advisory Committee will be established by State governmentsin each LGA to advise the LGC regarding management of such land. Until thenew provisions are given effect, land ownership patterns in Niger Statewill be governed by the provisions of the Land Tenure Law of the formerNorthern Nigeria. It is too early to predict how effectively the provisionsof the new law will be administered; however, it is unlikely drastically toalter the land ownership patterns and tenurial arrangements that currentlyexist under the customary system (described below) or to delay or impedeproject implementation.

4.14 West of the Kaduna river the so called communal land tenure systemoperates, under which traditional leaders are the custodians of all land intheir areas of jurisdiction and are empowered to grant usufract to individuals/families. All lands can be repossessed by the chief on the deaths or departuresof usufructuaries, but generally they are inheritable through the family. At

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the discretion of the head of the family, land can also be divrided among itsmembers, leased out to other families or even to strangers; however, sale offarmland is not allowed and is forbidden by law in some areas. Therefore,communal ownership is restricted only to vacant, virgin or undistributed land,and once an individual/family has been granted a piece of land, it becomestheir possession with full security of tenure. Nearly 80% of the farmlandwest of the Kaduna river is estimated to be under these tenurial arrangementsand 20% on lease, loan or gift.

4.15 To the east of the Kaduna river, particularly in the vast fadamas,a fief holder system is in existence. After the Fulani conquest of theNupe territory, members of the royal family appropriated all unused lands andsome village lands, which were subsequently bestowed to followers of the royalfamily, members of the nobility and other individuals. These fiefholdershave de facto title to the lands which they usually sub let to other farmers,who pay an annual tribute to the owner. Such transactions are regarded aslife tenancy or sale and the new tenants have alienation rights and fulltenurial security as long as tribute payments are maintained. It is estimatedthat 50% of the areas east of Kaduna river are under the fiefholder system,and the rest under the traditional communal system.

D. Land Use, Farm Structure and Farm Enterprises

Land Use and Farm Structure

4.16 An estimated 180,000 to 210,000 ha (about 12% of the land in theproject area) are cropped each year within a system of shifting cultivation.Nearly 84% of the cultivated area is on the uplands. Ninety-nine percentof the farms are subsistence farms; and a small group of commercial farms(average size 25 ha) accounts for the remainder. By local definition, commer-cial farms are operated with paid labor and are partly mechanized. These areowned by local businessmen, chiefs and retired civil servants. Most arepoorly managed and supervised. Smallholder group farms are popular but dueto lack of support services have not flourished to their full potential.

4.17 With no shortage of cultivable land, holding sizes vary widely,depending almost entirely on the labor available within the family. Thelimited data indicates that the average family of seven members farms about2.8-3.1 ha, and that 76% of farms are below 4 ha (accounting for 47% ofcultivated land). Larger farms are generally cultivated by extended familiesworking within the traditional system. Nearly 15% of the farms consist of acombination of a small fadama farm with a larger upland farm (locally knownas bata and lati farms respectively). In areas where depositional valleys orupper Niger terraces are predominant (as in Jima, Doko districts), fadamacomponents are over 1/3 of total holdings, whereas in areas with fewerperennial streams and rivers, such as in Mokwa, only 6% of the holdings aredevoted to fadama cultivation. Details of land use, farm size, composition offarms, and area under production are at Annex 1 Table 1.

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Farm Labor

4.18 The family contributes about 80% of the total farm labor input. Thenumber of persons in a farm family will generally vary between 6 and 11,

though some extended families consist of as many as 20-30 persons. A typical

farm family of seven is estimated to have labor availability of 3.9 adultmale equivalents, 44% of which is used on productive farm work (68% is con-

tributed by adult males), 22% on crop processing and marketing and about 34%

on domestic work. The cultivation capacity of an adult male is estimated at

about 1.8 ha (less for fadama farms) and, therefore, a farm family of 7 would

have sufficient labor for farming 3 ha without resorting to hired labor (see

Project File, Cl pp. 6-8).

4.19 When a farm relies for its labor on the full extended family, the

farm falls under the "efaco" system; when the farm family consists solely of a

farmer plus his wives and children, it is known as a "buca" farm. Break up of

the "efaco" system has reduced family labor availability and has encouraged

some use of non-family labor, particularly at peak periods. About 70% of

area farmers use non-family labor to some extent; 60% of all non-family

labor comprises hired labor, both daily paid and on contract. Young men

breaking out of the efaco system and smaller farmers constitute the pool oflaborers within the rural community, supplemented by seasonal migration from

the north and unemployed laborers from urban areas. Alternative sources aretraditional labor groups locally known as Dzaro and Egbe. The former comprise

10-12 close friends who work on each other's farms on an exchange basis,

but are also available for hire by non-members. The latter is a large villagegroup which could be called for agricultural or non-agricultural work byelders or other influential villagers. Dazaro accounts for about 26% andEgbe 13% of all non-family labor used in the area.

Farm Operations

4.20 The growing season of over 200 days permits sequential cultiva-tion of a wide range of crops with different growing periods. Short season

crops are normally relay cropped, sometimes double cropped, while mixed or

intercropping is widely practiced. Cotton and rice are usually plantedsole; sorghum, millet, cassava, groundnuts and yam are mostly mixed. Planting

starts with the earliest maturing crops - early millet and maize, continueswith sorghum - the main staple, then moves on to cash crops like groundnuts,cotton, rice and finally to higher value crops like chilli, okra and other

vegetables. A 4-7 year crop rotation coupled with a 6-15 year bush fallow isnormal east of the river Kaduna; to the west, cropping is similar but fallows

are longer. Rotations usually start with sorghum and/or yams (in some areas

Bambara nuts) and end with cassava. Sorghum, yam, early millet, groundnut andcowpeas are dominant crops. Sorghum and millet account for 43% of the cropped

area, and rice, the other significant cereal, accounts for 19%.

4.21 Hand tools and implements dominate cultivation practices excepton some larger group/commercial farms where THU is employed (see para 3.04).

Use of chemical fertilizers has increased significantly during the pastyears but still remains low at an average of less than 4 kg nutrients per ha.

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Use of other inputs is limited to about 50 tons of improved paddy seed, someimproved seeds for upland crops and about 100 gallons of chemicals; thus thepotential for improvement is enormous.

4.22 Irrigation and Water Control is limited to paddy cultivation. Theirrigated areas are either under "formal" schemes developed by Government orunder "informal" schemes initiated and constructed by farmers without assis-tance. The latter usually consist of brushwood diversion structures andrudimentary distribution systems or depend on inundation by impeded drainage.The formal schemes (11 in the project area) cover 1,600 ha, have permanentdiversion structures and a main canal with some water controls; informalschemes cover 4,000 ha. On both the schemes, water control measures areunsatisfactory due to poor drainage systems, inadequate land planning and landpreparation.

V. THE PROJECT

A. Summary Description

5.01 The primary objectives of the project are in accord with Federaland State Government policies of increasing agricultural production andraising farm incomes to improve the welfare and standards of living of thefarming population. The project would be implemented over f-ive years andwould benefit directly some 60,000 farmers of whom 99% would cultivate familyfarms (average size 3 ha). The project would include:

(a) Farm and Crop Developme'nt: increasing production of about54,000 ha of major subsistence and cash crops by intro-ducing improved farming practices with extension advice,improved seeds, fertilizer, crop protection measures, creditand other support services, including the reorganization ofthe Tractor Hire Unit (THU); establishing a farm managementadvisory service to provide technical advice to some 500commercial farms (average size 25 ha) and promote groupfarming; establishing seed multiplication units; conductingonfarm trials to test new technology and farming practices, andrehabilitating three existing formal irrigation schemes, im-proving water control on the existing 2,600 ha of informalirrigation schemes, and developing 2,600 ha of inland valleyswamps.

(b) Civil Works: constructing and improving 650 km of low costgravelled feeder roads, and maintaining a total of up to1,000 km of feeder roads; constructing project offices, stores,4 area development centers, 23 farm service centers and staffresidences, and expanding MNR workshop facilities.

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(c) Institutional Support: establishing a management unit withthe required technical and administrative staff, logisticsupport and funds for implementing the project; evaluatingproject progress, and developing guidelines for futureprojects, and providing facilities for formal and in-servicetraining of agricultural field staff and overseas trainingfor more senior specialists.

(d) Consultant Services: assisting tNR to review state agricul-tural policies and strategies; preparing a feasibility studyfor a second phase project; reviewing and recommendingimprovements to the existing private rice milling and otheragro-processing industry in the project area; preparingdetailed plans for management training and staff developmentprograms; and assisting MNR in start-up operations for theproject. A total of 50 man-months has been estimated forthese tasks.

B. Detailed Features

Farm and Crop Development

5.02 Precise estimates of farmer response and area coming under improvedfarm management and agronomic practices are difficult. However, drawingon the experience of similar ongoing projects in Nigeria, it is estimated thatnearly 75% (about 60,000) of the project area farm families would improvecultivation on 61,000 ha, 30% of total cropped area. It is unlikely that allparticipating farmers would follow recommendations for all the crops inthe rotation and/or improve their entire farms. It is estimated that 92%(55,000) of the participating farmers would benefit from a Basic ServicesPackage (BSP) designed to effect simple improvements to the traditionalsystem of production, while the remaining 8% (5,000) consisting of the moreprogressive individual farmers or farmer groups would accept an AdvancedService Package (ASP) involving more intense implementation of the improvedtechnology, including appropriate changes in cropping systems and farmingpractices. (Details at para 6.02). Schedules of farm and crop developmentare at Annex 1, Tables 2 and 3.

5.03 Basic Services Package: under the BSP production improvements areexpected for rice, sorghum, groundnuts, bambara nuts, yams and cassava cover-ing about 39,600 ha. It is assumed that most of the BSP participants wouldimprove about a quarter (average 0.7 ha) of their farms. The main benefitswould accrue from modest applications of inorganic fertilizers, use of im-proved and dressed seeds, increased planting densities and better disease,insect, pest and weed control (also see para 6.02).

5.04 Advanced Service Package: the total area to be farmed under ASP isexpected to total about 21,000 ha (34% of project improved area) and toinclude 2,100 ha of paddy in the formal irrigation schemes, 2,600 ha of paddy

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in the informal irrigation schemes, 2,500 ha of upland smallholder group farms

and 14,000 ha of commercial farms (average size 25 ha). ASP participants

would be encouraged to adopt a range of advanced production methods including

mechanization, use of pre-planting herbicides, fungicides and, in the case of

irrigated farms, better water control. Additionally, improved farming systems

would be introduced and better land use planning and soil conservation methods

would be encouraged. The advanced techniques are expected to be applied to a

range of new and traditional crops on the more progressive farms but in

particular to irrigated rice, maize, cowpeas and cotton (also see paras 6.02

and 6.05).

5.05 Smallholder Extension Services (SES) would be expanded and in-

tensified to provide the technical advice necessary for the diffusion of

the proposed technology. Present low MNR field staff:farmer ratio of 1:1,200

would be increased to 1:500, while timely and adequate supply of farm inputs

and services would be ensured. Extension services would be administered

through four Area Development Centers (ADC) established at each of the Local

Government Area (LGA) headquarters and at 23 Farm Service Centers (FSC)

established throughout the project area (see also para 5.14). Each FSC

would service an average of 3,500 farmers within a 10 km radius. Based on

the experience of ongoing agricultural development projects in Nigeria,

the proposed extension coverage is considered adequate.

5.06 Participating farmers would benefit from a number of specialized

services provided by the project including: assistance in designing improved

irrigation layouts, crop protection services, mechanization, farm trials, seed

multiplication and credit programs. Additionally, a farm management advisory

service would be established with the principal task of assisting group and

commercial farmers in land use planning, developing farm plans and introducing

improved farm systems.

5.07 Irrigation Development: The project irrigation and water-use

development program would cover 7,300 ha and comprise the following: (see

paras 6.05 and 6.08 for technical details). (a) Expansion and Rehabilitation

of the Badeggi, Edozhigi and Loguma formal schemes from 1,600 ha (at present)

to about 2,100 ha: proposals for their rehabilitation and expansion have been

prepared by the Nigerian consultant company ENPLAN (see Project File B2). The

schemes are very similar to each other and require the rehabilitation of the

headworks, canal and drainage systems. The ENPLAN proposals are compatible

with current work carried out by the MNR irrigation engineers and are suffi-

ciently detailed to provide an adequate basis for project implementation,

subject to minor modification during execution of the works. The main im-

provements would be undertaken by contractors under the supervision of the

project's irrigation staff. On-farm field improvements would be carried out

by the farmers themselves (currently the average farm size over the three

schemes is 1 ha). The project would provide credit assistance. (b) Water

Control Improvements to 2,600 ha of farmer developed irrigation areas (in-

formal schemes): the schemes generally consist of largely inefficient diver-

sion structures and poorly laid out canals and bunds, resulting in inefficient

water use. The project would provide simple, inexpensive but efficient and

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permanent diversion structures and head sluices, with properly traced andconstructed main canals and related canal structures. In addition, theintroduction of proper land planning and water control practices would resultin better land and water utilization. It is estimated that on average eachscheme would service 20 ha. The improvements would be executed by farmersunder the supervision and guidance of project staff, and credit would beprovided. Construction materials and labor for the headworks, main canal andcanal structures would be provided by the project. (c) Valley Swamp Develop-ment would cover 2,600 ha and would be undertaken by the farmers under thesupervision of project staff. Currently, land preparation in valley bottomsis minimal consisting, at most of a few ad hoc ridges or small bunds dividingthe land into plots. There is presently no attempt at real land planning andlayout (with related canaling and bunding) to ensure proper water control.This results in paddy being washed away or badly damaged by high velocitywater, or excessive inundation due to poor drainage, or in some areas by waterdeficits. The project would provide farmers with loans (see para 8.09) andtechnical support to layout, canal and bund the swamps properly for improvedproduction of rice. Because of the nature of the valley swamp and the workentailed, the task requires a group effort and as such is well suited to thelocal farmers' traditions.

5.08 Table 1 shows the schedule of irrigation development.

Table 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total-----------------------ha-------------------------

Formal Schemes:

Rehabilitation 685 710 275 - - 1,670Expansion - - 290 140 - 430

Subtotal 685 710 565 140 - 2,100

Informal Schemes:

Improvement 300 500 600 600 600 2,600

Inland Swamps:

Development 300 500 600 600 600 2,600

Total 1,285 1,710 1,765 1,340 1,200 7,300

5.09 Input Supplies. The project would provide necessary input suppliesto farmers through its Commercial Services Department. Currently, only about1,000 tons of chemical fertilizer, 50 tons of improved rice seeds and a fewtons of improved seeds for upland crops and insignificant quantities of fieldand storage insecticides, herbicides etc. are used in the project area. ByProject Year 5, nearly 10,000 tons of chemical fertilizers, over 2,000 tons ofimproved seeds and about 0.25 million Naira worth of various chemicals would

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be used annually by project farmers. In addition, improved hand tools, farmequipment (see para 5.12) and maize stores would also be made available (Annex1, Table 5). Timely supply of farm inputs in adequate quantities is essentialfor the uptake of the new technology. In the light of delays experiencer inthe supply of fertilizer to ongoing Bank-assisted projects (see para 2.20),assurances were obtained at negotiations that fertilizer procurement under ICBwould be undertaken according to a strict timetable agreed between FMG and theBank, who would jointly monitor progress, and that the system of procurementby CFU would be reviewed after two years. Because of the high fertilizer andchemical subsidies the need for credit is limited, but it would be availablewhen necessary at the FSCs. Details of the credit program are at paras 8.08through 8.12.

5.10 Seed Multiplication and Field Trials: The MNR irrigated seedmultiplication farms at Badeggi (6.5 ha) and Edozhigi (14.5 ha) would beexpanded to meet the requirements of increased demand for seed rice; pro-ductivity would be increased through improved water control, land preparationand technical supervision; proper threshing and drying facilities would beconstructed. A new 200 ha upland farm would be established for first stagemultiplication of seed cotton, sorghum, maize and groundnuts. Althoughno problems are anticipated in obtaining land for this purpose, assuranceswere obtained at negotiations that the State Government would make this landavailable to the project no later than 31 December 1979. The existing con-tract grower scheme would be strengthened and the project would ensure im-proved quality control. Stock seeds for paddy would be obtained from BRRSand, for other upland crops, from IITA and IAR. The project would alsomaintain the existing MNR tree crop nurseries for production of fruit treeseedlings.

5.11 The project would establish a small field trials unit to test andadapt research recommendations under field conditions. The unit would work inclose liaison with and provide a feed back service to research organizations,and to the Agricultural Projects Monitoring, Evaluation and Planning Unit(APMEPU) at Kaduna. Special attention would be paid to the testing of im-proved seeds and technology.

5.12 Tractor Hire Unit. The THU at Bida and Agaie would be reorganizedto make it operationally efficient and cost effective. The inoperativeequipment would be replaced or repaired and the scope of operations would beexpanded to include rental of power tillers and other small equipment.The operations would be commercially oriented and THU charges would cover allvariable costs plus 10% for overheads. The reequipped MNR workshop at Bidawould be the main center for repairs; the ADCs would do minor repairs andmaintenance, while a mobile repair unit would provide field servicing. Thefacilities would be available to private owners of farm equipment on paymentof appropriate charges. Private ownership of farm equipment would be encour-aged through advisory services and training facilities for prospective owners/operators.

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Civil Works

5.13 Roads: The project would construct 620 km and upgrade about 30 kmof existing feeder roads (see para 6.08 for standards) and subsequentlymaintain them (details at Annex 1, Table 5). Over 40% of the new roads wouldprovide access to rice growing fadamas. Construction costs for these roadswould be high because major earthwork and embankment construction involvinghaulage of construction materials from relatively distant areas would berequired. Roads linking the main farming areas and the proposed farm servicecenters would comprise about 60% of the project roads. Year-round passagethrough the State roads in the project area is important for project implemen-tation. However, nearly 65% of these roads are not properly repaired; theproject would, therefore, assume responsibility for maintaining about 140 kmof State roads until 1980; funds have been provided for the required equip-ment, operating costs and staff. Assurances were obtained at negotiationsthat, no later than 30 June, 1983, the State Government would prepare andagree with the Bank detailed plans for long-term maintenance of project arearoads including the allocation of responsibility between MWH and the LGCs,funding procedures, and logistical support.

5.14 Buildings and Houses. In view of the acute shortage of accommo-dation in the area, the project provides for a major construction programincluding 28 senior, 19 intermediate and 76 junior staff houses, and somelow cost housing. Four ADCs at Agaie, Lapai, Bida and Kutigi would be built,and 23 farm service centers at strategic locations, each with storage, anoffice, staff houses and some equipment-servicing facilities; additionally, aheadquarters complex with storage, workshop and other facilities would beconstructed at Bida. These structures would, in the long run, provide theLGCs and MNR the required infrastructure for agricultural support services.Details of unit costs and building requirements are at Annex 2, table 9.

Institutional Support

5.15 Following the successful lead of existing ongoing projects, theBida Project Management Unit (BPMU) would be established to implement theproject (see paras 8.01 - 8.04). BPMU would be established at Bida as aspecial unit of MNR and some of BPMU's operations would impact on MNR opera-tions outside the project area. For example, BPMU would establish a Monitor-ing Evaluation and Planning Unit (MEPU) that would not only focus on projectoperations, but would also provide an input into the State's long termplanning needs. MEPU would receive technical assistance from the AgriculturalProjects Monitoring, Evaluation and Planning Unit (APMEPU) in Kaduna, withwhich it would liaise closely. MEPU would also include a schistosomiasis sur-veillance program for monitoring the incidence and effect of this disease inthe irrigation and swamp development areas, the results and recommendations ofwhich are expected to be applicable to other areas with similar conditions,and would also form an important component of any future health program forthe area. Because of BPMU's close linkage with MNR, many of the technicalinnovations developed under the project would be easily transferable to therest of the state. Most importantly, as BPMU operations involve 40% of theState's population, the impact on the future administration of rural develop-ment at State and LGC level could be considerable.

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5.16 Training. The project itself is a massive training effort inimproved agricultural and rural administration, and would provide a soundbasis for on-the-job experience and training under reasonably controlledconditions, where the objectives of management and farm development would beproperly established. Experience to date shows clearly that in such circum-

stances, Nigerian staff will perform more effectively and learn rapidly byexperience. The project would supplement on-the-job experience with: (a)technical training - specialized training courses would be established to

train all levels of staff in the specific needs of the project. This trainingwould be related to, and would supplement, state training courses where theyexist. Thus, short courses would be developed for agriculturaL staff, irri-gation technicians, mechanics, bookkeepers, storemen,salesmen, etc. Addi-tionally, selected staff would be sent overseas for specific technical train-ing currently not available in Nigeria; (b) staff development and managementtraining - would have high priority, and to expedite this component theproject would employ a senior training officer with experience in staffdevelopment. Furthermore, consultants would be retained (see para 5.20(d)) toassist in preparation of a staff development and management training programto meet the needs of the project. Selected project staff would have theopportunity of overseas training in specific management skills if such train-ing is not available in Nigeria; and (c) farmer training - wou:Ld be carriedout through group meetings using audio visual aids. Practical on-farm demon-strations would play an important role in farmer training.

5.17 The senior training officer attached to APMEPU in Kaduna would workin close collaboration with BPMU's training officer in developing new trainingtechniques. He would be responsible for monitoring the training program, andensuring that it maintained the necessary impetus to meet the targets estab-lished by the consultants.

5.18 The BPMU senior training officer would be responsible for workingwith state officials in developing adequate training programs outside theproject area, in anticipation of an expansion of the project to other partsof the state at a later date. He would also work closely with the projectarea LGC to develop training programs for LGC staff, particularly in areasrelated to project activities, i.e. road maintenance and administration. Anassurance was obtained at negotiations that he would be appointed no laterthan 31 December 1979.

5.19 To facilitate the training program, the Farm Training Center atBida (para 3.07) would be expanded to train an additional 30 field overseersannually, and the Agaie Farm Institute would be upgraded to train 25 fieldoverseers annually. Additional dormitories, classrooms, and offices wouldbe built.

Consultant Services

5.20 The project would provide 50 man-months (costed at US$8,000 perman-month) of consultant services to assist MNR and BPMU in specific areaswhere local skills are not available, or where short term suppLementation is

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required. The estimated cost of consultancy is US$8,000 per man month, whichconsists of US$5,000 fee and an allowance of US$3,000 for travel and per diem.Specifically, the consultants would: (a) review agricultural developmentpolicies, priorities and strategies. The consultants would be required todevelop a policy and strategy paper for the period 1980-1989, consistent withFederal and State Government policies; in addition they would identify andprepare briefs for suitable projects including projects for livestock andfisheries (10 man-months); (b) prepare a feasibility study for the secondphase of the Bida project, assuming that early indications are positive as toboth the success of the project and the commitment of the State to long termdevelopment. The consultants (22 man-months) would work in close cooperationwith MNR and with BPMU, and would take into consideration the recommendationsestablished under (a) above; (c) review and make recommendations for improve-ment and development of the existing private rice milling operations in theproject area, and other agroprocessing operations (6 man-months). The reviewwould include the identification of constraints to the expansion of presentoperations, the possibility of diversification, the need for technical assis-tance to and training for the private sector, and an estimate of the expansionrequired for increased grain production, as well as cost estimates to supportthe proposals. The outcome of the review would provide long term benefits tothe project area population, and could possibly be linked with future Bankinvolvement in small scale industrial development through the Nigerian Indus-trial Development Bank; (d) provide detailed plans for establishing managementtraining and staff development programs for project staff. The consultant(9-man-months) would assist the BPMU senior training officer in this regard(see para 5.16(b)) and would subsequently, in conjunction with APMEPU, visitthe project on a yearly basis to assess the progress of staff training (e)assist the project in the early months after loan signature in the start upof project operations (3 man-months).

5.21 The consultants are likely to be recruited internationally, andcould come from consulting firms or as individuals. In either case, assuranceswere obtained during negotiations that BPMU would be responsible for thepreparation of detailed terms of reference for review by the Bank, that termsof reference for consultants would be acceptable to the Bank and that consul-tants would be appointed with qualifications, experience and on conditions andterms satisfactory to the Bank.

C. Cost Estimates

5.22 Project costs during the five-year development period 1979/80-1983/84are estimated at N 41.8 million (US$64.4 million) of which N 14.9 million(US$23.0 million) or 36% would be foreign exchange costs. Excluding taxes andand duties, estimated at N ;.1 mn (US$3.2 mn), project costs equal N 39.7 mn(US$61.2 in). Base costs are estimated on prices obtained during appraisalupdated to reflect baseline costs expected in end-1978. Farm inputs arecosted at full landed price in Bida and on an incremental basis. Projectoperating costs are incremental to existing Government expenditures of N 0.3million per annum. Costs include:

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a) physical contingencies equal to 5% of base costs for allitems except for roads and irrigation costs where 15% isestimated;

b) price contingencies for foreign costs in accordance withthe Bank's general guidelines, calculated on base costsplus physical contingencies, and based on the followingannual rates of price inflation.

Inflation Rate (%)1978 1979 1980-1985

Vehicle, plant equipment,spare parts and farm inputs 7.0 6.5 6.0

Civil works, buildings, houses,road construction and construc-tion materials 8.0 7.5 7.0

Salaries, consultants, andtechnical assistance 7.0 7.0 7.0

c) price contingency for local costs of 20% compoundedannually except for salaries and labor employed directlyby the project where an annual estimate of 13% is used.

5.23 Total contingencies calculated on the foregoing basis are equiv-alent to 32% of total costs or 48% of baseline costs. Details of projectcosts are presented in Annex 2, tables 1-8 and are summarized in Table 2below.

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Table 2 Summary of Project Costs

N million US$ Million %Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Baseline Total

Irrigation Development 3.1 1.5 4.6 4.7 2.3 7.0 16 11Roads & Engineering 2.2 2.3 4.5 3.4 3.5 6.9 15 11Buildings & Housing 3.6 2.3 5.9 5.5 3.5 9.0 21 14Incremental Farm Inputs 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.0 3.2 4.2 10 7Medium-term Cash Loans 0.7 ... 0.7 1.1 ... 1.1 3 2

Project AdministrationOverheads 2.2 1.3 3.5 3.4 2.0 5.4 12 8

Consultant Services ... 0.3 0.3 ... 0.4 0.4 1 1Commercial Services 1.7 0.9 2.6 2.6 1.4 4.0 9 6Other Agricultural andTraining Services 3.3 1.7 5.0 5.1 2.7 7.8 18 12

Sub-total 17.5 12.3 29.8 26.8 19.0 45.8

Less Pre-developmentCosts 1.2 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.5 2.3 (5) (4)

Total Base Costs 16.3 12.0 28.3 25.0 18.5 43.5 100 68

Physical Contingencies 1.1 0.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 2.7 4Price contingencies 9.5 2.3 11.8 14.8 3.4 18.2 28

Total Project Costs 26.9 14.9 41.8 41.4 23.0 64.4 100

Percentage 64 36 100 64 36 100

5.24 Project costs and price contingencies have been calculated on theassumption that the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar will remainfixed at 1.54 throughout the project period. This closely reflects the exper-ience of recent years during which time the exchange rate changed relativelylittle despite a rate of domestic inflation in Nigeria which consistently ex-

ceed international inflation by a significant margin.

5.25 The estimated of project cost in dollar terms would be affected bya change in exchange rate policy. If, for example, there were to be a 25%devaluation to compensate for the system of import duties and export incen-tives currently in force and if the exchange rate were to be adjusted there-after to compensate fully for the relatively high rate of domestic inflationprojected for future years, then the local component of project costs wouldbe lower when expressed in dollar terms. Under these assumptions the localcomponents of project costs would amount to $25.8 million compared with the$41.4 million estimated on the basis of the present exchange rate. Totalproject costs would, therefore, amount to only $48.8 million (compared with

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$64.4 million estimated on the basis of the present exchange rate) and theshare of total project cost financed by the Bank loan would be 47 percent(compared with 36 percent estimated on the basis of the present exchangerate.)

D. Proposed Financing

5.26 Of the total project cost of N 41.8 million (US$64.4 million),the Bank would finance N 14.9 million (US$23.0 million) at the lending ratecurrent at the time of loan approval and for a period of 20 years includinga 5-year grace period. The Bank loan would cover 36% of total project costs,equivalent to the foreign exchange cost; FMG would finance N 10.5 million(US$16.1 million) or 25% of project cost; and NSG N 16.4 million (US$25.3million) or 39%. Fertilizer and other chemicals would be sold to farmers atFederal and State established subsidized prices. If subsidies are continuedat present levels (about 85% for fertilizer and chemicals), the Federal andState Governments would be required to contribute an additional amount ofN 4.1 million (US$6.3 million) to the project to cover the equivalent of suchsubsidies on inputs delivered to project farmers (see para 5.27). A separatebank account for BPMU would be opened with a commercial bank with an initialdeposit of N 1.0 million. This would be a condition of loan effectiveness.Table 3 summarizes the proposed financing plan.

Table 3: Proposed Financing Plan by Expense Category(N million)

Total IBRD FMG NSG % Distribution

Civil works 8.5 3.4 2.0 3.1 20Vehicles and equipment 5.2 4.2 0.4 0.6 13Local salaries and wages 10.0 ... 3.9 6.1 24International staff andconsultants 3.1 3.1 ... ... 7

Operating costs 5.4 ... 2.1 3.3 13Farm inputs 3.9 3.0 0.4 0.5 9Irrigation and waterdevelopment 5.0 1.2 1.5 2.3 12

Medium term loans 0.7 ... 0.2 0.5 2

Total N million 41.8 14.9 10.5 16.4 100Total US$ million 64.4 23.0 16.1 25.3Percentage distribution 36 25 39

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5.27 The Bank loan would be made to the Federal Government who wouldonlend it on the same terms and conditions to Niger State Government. Thesigning of a subsidiary loan agreement between FMG and NSG, covering bothonlending of the Bank loan and the FMG contribution to NSG, would be a condi-tion of effectiveness.

5.28 Appraisal estimates show project operating costs as incrementalto existing Government expenditure on agriculture in the project area (esti-mated at N 0.3 million per annum) and an assurance was obtained that, inaddition to its contribution to incremental costs, NSG would continue tofinance the present real level of government expenditures in the projectarea. Ongoing projects are suffering from inadequate and delayed govern-ment funding and, to alleviate this problem, additional assurances wereobtained during negotiations that:

a) BPMU would submit to the FMARD, the State MNR and the Bank,the project's proposed annual budget (see para. 5.29), as approvedby the Project Executive Committee, at least 4 months prior to thecommencement of the upcoming fiscal year; b) FMG and NSG wouldprovide at least 3 months in advance their quarterly contributionto the project in accordance with the approved annual budget (para5.29); c) Bank disbursements would be made directly to BPMU'scommercial bank account (para 5.26); d) BPMU would have authorityto establish overdraft facilities equivalent to six months projectexpenditure requirements as estimated in the annual State approvedbudget, and that the overdraft would be guaranteed by NSG; e) FMGand NSG subventions covering the estimated cost of subsidies onfarm inputs would be received by BPMU no later than September inthe year prior to procurement.

E. Programming and Budgeting

5.29 Annual budgets would be prepared by Bida Project Management Unit(BPMU) based on appraisal estimates, amended where necessary to reflectchanges in costs and project development policies. These would be submittedto the Bida Project Executive Committee (BPEC) for approval. BPMU would alsoprepare statements of estimated quarterly cash flow requirements which wouldbe submitted to BPEC, and BPMU would operate on the basis of these statementsunless informed otherwise. BPMU would prepare, for prompt submission to theBank, quarterly and annual progress reports including summaries of expendi-tures and use of funds. On the basis of the approved annual budgets, theState and Federal Governments would make budgetary allocations and, there-after, would make available to BPMU all necessary funds quarterly and inadvance (see para 5.28(b)).

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F. Accounts and Audits

5.30 BPMU would keep records in accordance with sound accounting prac-tices, to reflect its operational and financial position and would havethese audited by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank. The auditedaccounts and the auditor's report, including a statement as to whether or notBank funds had been used for their intended purpose, would be submitted to theBank within four months of the end of the fiscal year. Assurances to thiseffect were obtained during negotiations.

G. Procurement and Disbursement

5.31 Procurement: Contracts for fertilizers, chemicals, vehicles,tractors and heavy equipment valued at US$100,000 or more with an estimatedaggregate cost of about N 6.5 million (US$10.0 million) net of contingencieswould be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) and inaccordance with Bank guidelines. Local competitive bidding in accordance withprocedures satisfactory to the Bank would be employed for contracts overUS$30,000 but less than US$100,000. For contracts of less than US$30,000local competitive shopping would be employed. Items for procurement would bebulked to permit optimum use of competitive bidding. Domestically manufac-tured goods would be allowed 15% preference or the applicable import duty,whichever is lower, when comparing bids with those of foreign manufacturers.Contracts for houses, stores, buildings and the formal irrigation works valuedat about N 7.8 million (US$12.0 million) would not be attractive to foreigncontractors due to dispersed location and small size of contracts; suchcontracts would therefore be awarded on the basis of local competitive biddingin accordance with procedures satisfactory to the Bank. Construction of roadsvalued at N 1.4 million (US$2.2 million) and of headworks and canals forirrigation schemes valued at N 0.9 million (US$1.4 million) would be under-taken by the project on force account due to a continuing shortage of depend-able contractors able to undertake this type of work. A large part of theproject cost would be salaries, and operating expenses, valued at about N 8.9million (US$13.7 million) which are unsuitable for competitive bidding. Theservices of consultants and internationally recruited staff valued at N 2.4million (US$3.8 million) would be obtained in accordance with proceduresacceptable to the Bank. An amount of N 13.5 million (US$20.9 million) wouldcover contingencies.

5.32 Disbursement: The Bank loan would be disbursed during 1979-1984 asin the schedule below (details are at Annex 2, Table 11). All expenditureswould be fully documented. Disbursements for works under Category III or IV,if undertaken on force account, would be made against certificates of expendi-ture, the supporting documents for which would not be submitted for reviewbut retained by B.P.M.U. for inspection by the Bank during supervision mis-sions, and by the auditors. The management structure and staffing of theproject, and the built-in controls, are suitable for operating this systemof documentation.

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Category I 100% of the foreign expenditure on directly imported ve-hicles, tractors, heavy equipment and spare parts (or iflocally procured 90% of expenditure) totalling US$6.0million;

Category II 100% of the foreign expenditure on directly importedfertilizer, chemicals and other farm inputs (or if locallyprocured 85% of expenditure) totalling US$4.4 million;

Category III 100% of foreign expenditure on construction costs and mate-rials for project offices and houses (including furnishings)and feeder roads (or 45% of total expenditure) totallingUS$4.3 million;

Category IV 100% of foreign expenditure on construction of formal irri-gation schemes and construction materials for informalschemes, excluding farm land development (or 25% of totalexpenditure) totalling US$1.3 million;

Category V 100% of salaries and allowances of internationally recruitedstaff, fees for consultancy services and overseas trainingof local staff, totalling US$4.7 million;

Categroy VI An unallocated amount of US$2.3 million.

VI. TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTION SPECIFICATIONS

Crop Development

6.01 Crop development proposals are based on the ecological and edaphicconditions in the project area, the socio-economic constraints and the farmfamilies' labor availability. The proposed technology is simple, relativelyinexpensive and easily implementable; its adoption would neither necessitateany relocation of the farming population, nor require major changes in thecropping pattern, farm sizes or tenurial arrangements. The agronomic recommen-dations (summarized in Annex 1, Table 4) reflect research recommendations,performance under field conditions, and experience from ongoing projects innorthern Nigeria. Modifications would be made when required through theproject field trials unit (see para 5.11).

6.02 The improved technology would involve the use of improved dressedseeds (except for bambara and yam for which none is available); appropriatefertilizer use; insect, pest and disease control, and improved cultivation(land preparation, water control, weeding, higher plant population, timelyfarm operations) and post-harvest practices. Advanced technology involving,in addition to the above, pre-planting herbicides, fungicides and mechanicalaids would be recommended on the more progressive farms for all crops in theproposed rotation except cassava and bambara. Mechanical land preparationand use of preplanting herbicides would be encouraged for cotton, maize, rice

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and sorghum on the more progressive farms and group farms; mecha1nical liftersand shellers would be introduced on the larger groundnut farms,,and powertillers and paddy threshers on irrigated rice. Fungicides for cercosporacontrol in groundnuts and leaf-blast in paddy, and insecticides for paddy,maize, cowpea, yams and cotton would be encouraged; controlled droplet appli-cation (CDA) of herbicides and insecticides using ultra low volume (ULV)sprayers would be introduced for cowpea, yams and cotton; yam setts would bedusted prior to planting while maize cobs would be dusted before storing.Cribs for maize would be introduced to ease drying problems during rains. Forthe majority of crops there is little or no difference in yieLds betweenimproved and advanced farming practices. Income differences (see para. 9.01)are, however, significant and are due primarily to reduction in labor inputs(particularly during the May and August peaks), through the use of herbicidesand mechanical cultivations (para. 9.01) thus allowing more timely farmoperations and more intensive management. Additionally, double cropping (withrice and/or vegetables) would be possible on some irrigated farms.

6.03 The introduction of the technical package is expected to affectboth subsistence and cash crops. Some minor adjustments within the croppingpattern are anticipated, however, whereby cowpeas, maize, and cotton willprobably increase slightly in relative importance. The overall cultivatedarea is estimated to grow at an annual rate of about 2.5%, roughly equal topopulation increase, but the increase in the total cropped area should not beat the expense of the bush fallow period as land is not yet a constraint.Average yield increases for the traditional crops of sorghum, groundnuts,bambara nuts, yams and cassava of from 15 to 30% should be within the capacityof the BSP farmers. Average yield increases for rice, maize, cowpeas andcotton are much greater (48%, 100%, 350% and 150% respectively), and reflectthe very low yields already existing, and the proven and far better technicalpackages that are to be introduced to the farmer. These increased yields arestill 30-40% less than could be achieved if recommended practices were prop-erly followed. Table 4 opposite summarizes project impact on the yields ofvarious crops in the project area (see Annex 1, Table 3 for details).

6.04 Based on experience in similar projects, it can be stated withconfidence that the increased yields indicated in Table 4 are attainable.However, it should be noted that the actual output mix will depend not onlyon the yield potential of individual crops, but also in part on the relativeeconomic incentives prevailing in years to come. As this structure of incen-tives is likely to change during the life of the project, in ways which cannotbe predicted now, modifications in the projected production mix are to be ex-pected. It is impossible, therefore, to predict the precise product mix atthe end of the project period with any degree of certainty, but on the basisof the production increases in Table 4, the volume of project area outputwould rise by about 42% over the project period, or by 28% after allowing forpopulation increase. At financial prices, the value of project area outputwould rise by aabout 45% or, after allowance for population growth, by about32%, an annual growth in value terms of about 5% attributable to projectactivities.

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Table 4 Yields and Aggregate Production

Crop Pre-Project Post Project 1/ Incremental 2/

Total Per ha 3/ Total Per ha 3/ Total Per ha 3/

'000 tons ton '000 tons ton '000 tons ton

Sorghum 40.2 0.60 54.3 0.72 8.8 (22) 0.12 (20)

Rice 39.6 0.99 59.7 1.47 14.1 (36) 0.48 (48)

Maize 1.9 0.60 9.5 1.19 7.4 (389) 0.59 (98)

Groundnuts 7.0 0.50 9.7 0.61 1.8 (16) 0.11 (22)

Bambara nuts 4.8 0.40 6.4 0.51 1.0 (21) 0.11 (28)

Cowpeas 1.7 0.12 3.3 0.42 1.4 (82) 0.30 (250)

Yams 70.0 5.00 92.8 5.74 13.6 (19) 0.74 (15)

Cassava 56.0 4.00 75.2 4.82 11.8 (21) 0.82 (21)

Cotton 0.3 0.30 3.0 0.75 2.7 (900) 0.45 (150)

1/ At the end of Project Year 5. Includes an assumed 2.5% p.a. natural

increase in project area production.

2/ Total incremental from project action. Figures in parenthesis show percentage

increases.

3/ Average yields for the area.

6.05 Formal Irrigation Schemes. Rehabilitation of the Badeggi, Edozhigi

and Loguma irrigation schemes would involve masonry repairs to headworks and

main channels, installing new steel gates and lifting gear in the bay control

structures; supplying regulating planks to drop structures, repairing foot

bridges, drainage, over and under-crossings; earthwork for regrading, recon-

ditioning and repairing main, distributing and field channels; repairs of

off-takes, etc. (details in Project File C-3). Technical specifications

contained in the ENPLAN consultants' report dated September 1977 (see para

5.07) are satisfactory and would be the basis for the rehabilitation work.

Based on the water and land availability it is estimated that rehabilitation

would allow expansion of the command areas of the three schemes by another

430 ha, most of which would be in the Badeggi (290 ha) and Edozhigi (100 ha)

areas. The average cost for rehabilitation is N 645 (US$987) and for expansion

N 2,500/ha (US$3,825). These costs do not include field bunding and levelling,

tasks that are carried out by the farmers for an estimated N 200/ha (US$306)(see para 8.09 for credit arrangements).

6.06 Informal Irrigation Schemes: Project proposals involve contruction

of simple planked open-bay diversion structures (each bay about 1.5 m),

concrete floor and stilling basin (or rip-rap protection); main sluice and

properly surveyed irrigation canals with structures (e.g. off-takes, spill-

ways, crossings). The canal has been costed on an average length of 2.5 km

per scheme of 20 ha. The estimated cost is N 5,600/scheme. Land development,

including canaling, drainage and field funding, below the off-takes of the

main canal would be the responsibility of the farmers. They will, however,

receive technical guidance and supervision from project staff, and creditassistance (para. 8.09).

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6.07 Valley Swamps: Water control measures would be kept simple andinexpensive. IBRD chart 13265 shows the basic layout. The main drainagecanals would be in trapezoidal sections with 1.2 m to 3 m average cut widthand 0.5 m to 0.6 m cut depths, and would be laid out along the natural troughof the swamp. The main canal would be linked to a system of subsidiary canalsfor conveying the drainage flow from swamp bays. Irrigation canals, 0.5 m to0.6 m wide and deep, would be constructed along the periphery of the swamps'development zone. The head of the development zone of the swamp would bebunded across by a simple earthen head-bund made with stick and mud. Themain drainage canal would connect on to the head bund. The development zoneserved by the above system would be divided into suitably sized paddy plots ofabout 0.05 ha to 0.1 ha, depending on the natural contour of the land, bysmall ridges and bunds. These would be constructed by the farmers themselveswith technical assistance from project staff (see para 8.09 for credit arrange-ments). Since the land is already planted to rice on an annual basis, necessaryland readjustments would be made by the farmers themselves and no problems areanticipated in this regard. The same would apply to the informal irrigationschemes described in para 6.06 above.

Feeder Roads

6.08 Project roads would be simple properly compacted earth roads withculverts and small bridges. Design standards would vary depending upon theterrain and expected volume of traffic; however, the primary considerationswould be to: (a) ensure adequate compaction to stand up to truck axle loadsof at least 9,000 kg; and (b) provide satisfactory drainage including acentral crown of not less than 15 cm, continuous road side ditches of not lessthan 50 cm depth and offshoot drains and culverts adequate for transportingand disposing of flash flood waters. The naturally occurring soils in thearea mostly consist of grained sands with a clay content of 10-30%, and wouldbe used for embankment construction. All the roads would have lateritesurfaces about 100 mm - 150 mm thick. The compacted road width would be about5.2 m with a 2 m ditch and shoulder on either sides. Total right of way wouldbe 12 m with a turning radius of about 80 m and a design speed of 40-50 km/hr.60 and 90 cm precast concrete pipes would be used for culvert construction;bridges would have 3 to 5 m spans, with abutments in stone masonry or massconcrete, steel girders and timber decking. In view of labor limitationsheavy equipment such as bulldozers, graders and self-propelled rollers wouldbe widely used in road construction and maintenance. The project wouldprovide sufficient equipment for the maintenance of the project area roads.The project's Engineering Department would work with the four LGCs to improvethe maintenance of the many small roads not affected by BPMU, and to ensure asmooth takeover of project constructed roads by the LGCs prior to projectcompletion.

Buildings

6.09 Staff houses would have floor areas between 115 and 180 m ; theheadquarters would consist of an office block (1,800 m ), a workshop (450

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m2), a central store (250 m ), and a guest house (200 m ); the Area De- 2

velopment Centers and 2he Farm Service Centers would have stores of 400 m

(1,000 ton) and 200 m (500 ton) size, respectively, in addition to officespace. Fifteen percent of the building costs have been provided for furnish-

ing, 3% for design (where necessary) and 20% for site and service development.

The above specifications are in line with experience from ongoing projects.

VII. DEMAND, MARKETING AND PRICES

A. Demand and Marketing

7.01 Assuming average Nigerian consumption data is applicable to theproject area, current per capita consumption of foodgrains is about 195 kg

(root crops included as grain equivalents), implying aggregate annual con-

sumption of about 130,000 tons. Of this, about 47% is root crops, 35% coarsegrains, 5% rice and 13% minor grains. In the project area, rice is estimated

to be in surplus, other grains in approximate balance and root crops indeficit. At full development, (1985-1986) total net availability of food

grains in the project area (including project incremental production) would be

about 183,000-140,000 tons of cereals and 43,000 tons of root staples (ingrain equivalents). On the conservative assumption of no change in per capita

consumption and tastes and preferences, total consumption demand in 1985 would

increase to about 150,000 tons of grains - 78,000 tons of cereals and 72,000

tons of root crops (in grain equivalent) - as a result of population increase

in the area. In 1985 rice, sorghum, maize and groundnuts are estimated to be

in net surplus in the project area while millet, cowpeas, bambara and rootcrops would still be in deficit. The net grain surplus (i.e. 33,000 tons)

would be less than 2% of Nigeria's projected national deficit in 1985, and

would therefore have a ready domestic market. There is a long establishednetwork of processing infrastructure and a commercially oriented trading class

and no major institutional changes in the marketing system would be required

to handle the increased volume of marketed surplus. However, improvements inthe paddy milling and cereal grinding establishements, which presently sufferfrom inadequate management, lack of spare parts and repair facilities, would

be required along with on-farm storage improvement. The project would ini-

tiate improvement in maize storage (see para 6.02) while technical assistancewould be provided for identifying the needs and scope for improvements in the

processing and marketing of other food crops (see para 5.20). Nigeria imports

over 10,000 tons of seed cotton, and with an expanding domestic textileindustry, project incremental production would find an easy market. There is

an underutilized ginnery at Kontogora, close to the project area, which could

absorb project production.

B. Prices

7.02 Except for cotton, all crops in the project area are freely

traded in local markets and prices are determined by relevant supply and

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demand conditions. The Government purchase price for cotton (currentlyN 308/ton) is about 80% of financial and 64% of economic fob Lagos valuesand is considered satisfactory. The minimum price for shelled groundnut(N 275/ton) is about 93% and 84% of financial and economic farmgate prices,respectively, based on hypothetical import substitution. However it is about20% lower than actual prevailing market prices and reflects a situation ofexcess local demand for edible oils. Annual food imports, averaging about 1%of total consumption demand, have had minimal effect on the higher domesticprices of most food items which are currently at levels higher than importparity or statutory minimum prices. Given Government priority for non-agricultural imports, the available foreign exchange resources, and logisticdifficulties in respect of importation and internal distribution, relativelyhigh food grain prices are expected to continue in domestic markets for sometime to come. On the whole, then, the overall price outlook for project cropsis favorable.

7.03 Economic prices for rice, sorghum, groundnuts, and cotton werebased on IBRD world price forecasts; financial prices for these crops (forfarm budgets) reflect local market conditions and/or Governiment statutoryprices. Financial and economic farmgate prices for yam, cowpeas, cassava andbambara nuts were based on price trends in Bida and other Nigerian markets.The prices used in project economic and financial analysis,, together withstatutory minimum prices, are detailed at Annex 3, tables L and 2.

VIII. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

A. Organization and Mangement

8.01 The project would be implemented under the Niger State MNR througha semi-autonomous management unit, the Bida Project Management Unit (BPMU),which would be responsible to the Bida Project Executive Committee (BPEC).BPMU would, at project level, be advised by the Bida Project Technical Coor-dination Committee (BPTCC). BMPU and BPEC would have terms of referencesimilar to those established for the ongoing projects of Funtua, Gusau, Gombe,Ayangba and Lafia. The NSG would publish in its official gazette a noticeestablishing BPMU and BPEC with terms of reference and composition acceptableto the Bank, and this would be a condition of effectiveness.

8.02 The BPEC would be chaired by the Permanent Secretary, MNR and wouldinclude representatives from the State Ministries of Finance and EconomicDevelopment; Works and Housing; Trade, Industry and Cooperatives; LocalGovernment; Health, and a representative from the FMAWR; representatives ofthe Lavun, Agaie, Gbako and Lapai LGCs and the project manager. The chiefadministrative officer of BPMU would act as secretary of BPEC. BPEC would,inter alia, determine project policy, exercise budgetary and financial con-trol, approve annual work programs, appoint senior technical and managementstaff and determine their conditions of service and ensure cooperation andcoordination between Niger State ministries in project implementarion.

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8.03 BPMU would undertake project implementation and would be responsibleto the BPEC. It would take over the MNR agricultural services (excluding the

fisheries section) and the produce inspection divisions in the project area.MNR forestry, irrigation and livestock divisions would continue to function in

the area independently of BPMU; however, project irrigation development wouldbe implemented by a special unit within BPMU. During the five-year project

development period BPMU would administer the small existing LGC extensionservices. BPMU would have a large degree of operational and financial auto-nomy but would liaise and coordinate its activities with other relevant publicagencies in the area to minimize duplication of programs and facilitate

post-project management. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that: (a)MNR would give high priority to BPMU staff recruitment and as far as possiblepromptly accede to BPMU requests for secondment of MNR technical and other

staff to the project; and (b) Niger State would transfer to the projectresponsibility for all agricultural extension work in the project area, no

later than 1 April, 1980.

8.04 The project organization is shown on IBRD Chart 18603. The apexof BPMU would be the project manager's office, which would include the keyadministrative and financial divisions. Reporting to the project managerwould be five departments or units: (a) Training Unit would be responsiblefor training of project staff, farmers, cooperative staff and LGC staff, andfor overall staff development; (b) Monitoring Evaluation and Planning Unitwould monitor and evaluate project technical and economic progress, collectplanning data, conduct land use surveys, and prepare land planning data. TheUnit would also be responsible for the schistosomiasis section that wouldmonitor and recommend controls for schistosomiasis related problems in theirrigation areas; (c) Commercial Services Department would be responsible forfarm input supplies, credit administration, tractor hire to farmers, cropprotection and liaison with cooperatives; (d) Agricultural Services Depart-ment would be responsible for smallholder extension, land use planning, farmmanagement advisory services, seed multiplication, and agricultural aspects ofirrigation and water development; and (e) Engineering Services Department

would be responsible for the construction of roads, civil works related toirrigation development, supervision of building contracts, and operation of

project workshops.

8.05 The Bida Project Technical Coordination Committee (BPTCC) wouldbe established once the project is operational. BPTCC would serve as alocal coordinating unit for BPMU. It would comprise representatives of theLGCs and other government agencies operating in conjunction with the project.Selected farmers and project technical staff would also be members. BPTCCwould play a particularly important role in siting of farm service centersand roads and would establish guidelines for land allocation (when necessary),and provide a forum to ensure minimum overlap of project and non-projectactivities.

B. Staffing

8.06 Key staff for the project include the project manager, chief account-ant, senior training officer, senior evaluation officer, chief technical

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officer, land use planning officer, farm management advisor, senior agronomist,

senior irrigation engineer, two irrigation engineers, commercial servicesmanager, chief engineer and mechanical engineer. Trained personnel with therelevant background and capability for implementing a development program of

the kind proposed are presently in short supply in Nigeria. The deficiency isparticularly pronounced at the senior and middle level of technical andmanagement staff. In the past, for ongoing projects, the Bank encouraged

State Governments to identify and recruit suitable Nigerians for key positionsbut the response was generally disappointing. The project therefore provides

funds (up to US$5,000 per man-month) for international recruitment of the

above key staff, and an assurance was obtained at negotiations that personswith qualifications and experience and on terms and conditions of employmentacceptable to the Bank would be appointed to these posts. Further, the

appointment of the project manager and chief accountant would be a conditionof loan effectiveness; and the senior training officer would be appointed nolater than December 31, 1979.

8.07 The Bank's Agricultural Projects Management Unit for WesternAfrica (APMU) has assisted State and Federal Governments in the selection

and recruitment of international staff for a number of projects. A requesthas been received from NSG that APMU provide the same services for the presentproject, and advertising and selection procedures are already under way.

C. Farm Credit Administration

8.08 Neither NACB nor existing local onlending entities (para 2.08) arepresently in a position to administer effectively a farm credit scheme inthe project area. Therefore, while project level entities such as coopera-tives and farmer associations are being developed, and until NACB establishesappropriate operating proceduures, BPMU would itself be responsible foradministering farm credit.

8.09 Credit administration would be the responsibility of the CommercialServices Department. Participating smallholders and groups in need of mediumterm credit would apply through the respective area development offices. Thearea agricultural and commercial staff would determine an applicant's credit-worthiness and right of occupancy to land, and the technical soundness ofdevelopment proposals. Smallholder loans below N 300 (or such amount deter-mined by BPEC) would be approved at area level, while larger amounts wouldrequire headquarters approval. Project credit would take two forms: (a)seasonal credit for purchase of fertilizers, seeds, herbicides, farm tools andtractor hire. Experience on other projects indicates that the demand forshort-term credit is not great due to the present high subsidies on farminputs. Nevertheless, some demand for short-term credit is expected and wouldbe met; and (b) medium-term credit for smallholder rice growers for purchaseof tools and hiring of labor to develop their individual irrigated fields. Itis expected that most farmers would require loans to develop at least 1 ha of

irrigated land, which in constant 1978 terms would mean a loan of N 110(US$170). Project requirements for seasonal credit and medium term loans areat Annex 2, table 7.

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8.10 Terms of Lending. During the three year period 1975-1977 the aver-

age Nigerian inflation rate was 26% per annum, and an average rate of 20%

per annum is expected to persist over the next three years. NACB does not,

typically, lend direct to farmers but rather, through intermediaries, and

NACB's lending rates of 5-7% are thus generally subject to an additional

mark-up of 1-1/2 - 2% to allow for onlending costs. Commercial banks are

under FMG instructions to lend to agriculture at 5%, but in view of the much

more favorable rates in other sectors are reluctant to comply. Under the

project, seasonal loans for farm inputs would be repayable at harvest, and

in any case within 12 months. Medium term development loans for irrigation

would be repayable within 3 years. Medium term loans would bear an annual

interest rate of 9-1/2%, or 2% above NACB's maximum current lending rate,

whichever is higher, and seasonal loans would carry a service charge of 10%,

or two and a half percent above the NACB rate. These formulae allow for auto-

matic adjustment in the event of any significant general upward adjustment of

the Nigerian interest rate structure. They are above the rates of NACB or

the commercial banks, and take account of the higher cost of lending to large

numbers of small farmers, and the additional risk in debt recovery.

8.11 The credit operations of the Commercial Services Department would be

designed to facilitate their eventual transfer to some more permanent credit

institution, be it NACB, Commercial Bank or some cooperative based entity.

The Department would accordingly be established on a self-accounting basis,

and would clearly identify, among others, three sub-accounts: a trading

account, a short-term and a medium-term credit account.

8.12 Credit needs of project area commercial farms would be serviced

by the commercial banks and/or NACB. Commercial banks are obliged to have a

portion of their total lending in agriculture and are therefore eager for

sound investment opportunities in the sector. The BPMU farm advisory service

would assist large farmers in the preparation of farm plans and other tech-

nical documentation required to obtain commercial loans, thereby facilitating

increased participation of commercial banks in credit operations.

D. Post-Project Management

8.13 In their structure, organization and operating procedures, the

present institutions providing farm support services have neither the flexi-

bility nor the resources required for the implementation of an intensive

agricultural development program, as here proposed. The management and

organization of the project has therefore been structured to circumvent some

of these constraints and ensure rapid implementation of the essential program

for increased farm production during and after the project. Neither the

development intensity nor the cost to Government is expected to continue at

the same level after the completion of the project, even if expanded to the

State as a whole. Moreover, many of the farm support services (e.g. produc-

tion and distribution of inputs, specialized equipment hire services, credit,

and marketing) need not be centralized in the public sector and could be

effectively provided by the private sector. Even technical advisory services

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and complementary infrastructure (e.g., feeder roads construction and main-tenance, maintenance of irrigation structure etc.), though likely to be majorpublic sector commitments in the foreseeable future, could be delegated todecentralized agencies with greater local participation. One of the mainobjectives of BPMU would therefore be to seek ways for service components ofthe project eventually to pass either to Local Government Councils or to

cooperatives and private operators, as appropriate. Such services could befinanced through local taxation or on a direct cost basis.

8.14 This long term strategy is consistent with current Federal and StateGovernment thinking. Recent Local Government reforms have vested the LGCswith wide powers in agricultural and rural development planning and adminis-tration. The LGCs, equivalent to the county administration in the US and UK,are close to the people and the traditional hierarchy, and if properly sup-ported and strengthened could eventually take over some of the non-commercialaspects of the project. It is important, therefore, that during the imple-mentation of the project every effort is made at improving the operations ofthe LGCs, and the project will provide training assistance (para 5.18) andconsultant services (para 5.20) to assist in this task. The project wouldalso provide consultant services to assist BPMU Monitoring Evaluation andPlanning Unit in planning for a post-project period that could include theState as a whole. The proposed expansion of the Funtua Agricultural projectfor a state-wide operation, now being prepared by Kaduna State with APMEPUassistance, would also provide useful guidelines for similar post-projectdevelopment in Niger State. An assurance was obtained during negotiationsthat the Federal and State Governments, together with the Bank, would reviewproject progress and plans drawn up no later than 31 December, 1982 by theMonitoring Evaluation and Planning Unit (in conjunction with the Planning Unitof APMEPU) and would make recommendations for the future of the project.

IX. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

A. Fimancial Implications for Farmers

9.01 Incremental farm incomes would depend on the crop combinationsindividual farmers adopt; typical farm models were not prepared becausefarm size, crop combination and land ownership patterns are diverse and therelevant data base is poor. Direct benefits to farmers (returns per haand per manday) are evaluated from single crop budgets (summarized at Annex 5,Table 1) and overall benefits are calculated on the basis of these budgets andassumed adoption rates for various crops. Net returns (at financial farmgateprices) per ha and per manday resulting from the proposed innovations aresummarized in Table 5 opposite (details in Annex 3, Table 3-11).

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Table 5 Net Returns to Farmers

Without Project With ProjectNet Return Net Return Net Return Net Return Incremental

Crop per ha per manday per ha per manday per ha per manday

Irrigated Rice -------------------------- Naira -------------------------------------

Informal Schemes 326.0 3.0 461.0 4.2 135.0 1.2

Formal Schemes 402.0 3.7 715.0 6.5 313.0 2.8

Valley Swamp 170.0 1.5 257.0 2.3 87.0 0.8

Sorghum 137.0 2.5 271.0 3.4 134.0 0.9(250.0) (4.6) (113.0) (2.1)

Maize 122.0 2.0 281.0 3.3 159.0 1.3(259.0) (5.2) (137.0) (3.2)

Groundnuts 149.0 1.7 268.0 2.2 119.0 0.5(299.0) (3.3) (150.0) 1.6

Bambara 89.0 1.6 175.0 2.5 86.0 0.9

Cowpea 34.0 0.7 300.0 3.8 266.0 3.1

Cassava 233.0 2.6 706.0 5.4 473.0 2.8

Cotton 91.0 1.8 250.0 3.1 139.0 1.3

Yams 426.0 2.5 713.0 3.0 287.0 0.5(701.0) (3.5) (275.0) (1.9)

Note: Figures in parenthesis indicate returns for farms using somemechanization and herbicides.

9.02 On the basis of an anticipated overall increase in volume of produc-

tion of 28% due to project actions, and an expected participation of 75% ofproject area farmers, average net family incomes in real terms (1978 constantprices) are expected to rise from N 400 (US$615) to N 500 (US$770) by thefifth year of the project. This can be considered satisfactory compared topresent production performance which at best is static. Incremental farmincomes for participating families would depend on actual crop combinationsimproved. Net income from an average 3.1 ha farm (about N 400) would be morethan doubled if the farmer improved all the crops in the rotation. Those

farmers taking advantage of the advanced service packages are likely toincrease their incomes by twice as much as those participating in the basicservices package only.

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B. Cost Recovery and Financial Implications for Government

9.03 The project does not increase directly generated revenue to Govern-ment as there are no taxes or cesses on farmers' produce. However, evidencefrom ongoing projects suggests that considerable secondary economic activitywill develop around the project area with the development of commercialservicing agencies and minor industries, together with a marked increase inspending by beneficiaries on consumer goods and services from the privatesector. Revenues from indirect taxation will therefore increase substantially,although precise quantification of this effect is not possible. Under presentGovernment policy farm inputs are highly subsidized; fertilizers are subsi-dized at about 80%, while improved seeds are sold at a subsidy equivalentto about 50%. Notwithstanding these constraints costs would be recoveredwhere practical. Under the project, seedlings, unsubsidized chemicals, paddythreshers, drying cribs and tools would be supplied to smallholders at priceswhich would cover all handling costs. Likewise, participants would be chargedat cost for plant protection, maintenance on formal irrigation schemes andtractor hire. It was agreed at negotiations that participants in irrigationschemes would make a contribution to the recovery of capital costs of develop-ment. For formal schemes this annual charge would be N 15 per hectare forthe first three years of the project, rising to N 21 per hectare thereafer.For informal schemes, the charge would be N 5 per hectare at first, risingto N 10 after three years. Farmers on formal schemes would also pay full re-current costs of maintenance, while informal scheme farmers would do their ownmaintenance. These charges will permit the State, over a 30 year scheme life,to recover in full the nominal capital cost of development (excluding over-heads) for informal schemes and for formal scheme rehabilitations (thoughnot for the more expensive formal scheme expansions) but excLude recovery ofinterest on capital. If interest at 9% were included, charges as a % of fullcapital cost recovery would amount to 37% for informal schemes, 33% for formalrehabilitations, and 9% for formal expansions. These charges represent amarked advance towards cost recovery compared to present purely nominal chargesin other irrigation schemes. To adopt full cost recovery, particularly in thecase of the more costly formal expansions, would mean introducing heavy chargeson farmers, totally out of line with anything presently applied in Nigeria,which would seriously deter farmers from participation in these schemes.Farmer charges, in addition to their contribution to capital costs, will fullycover recurrent costs of maintenance, and the element of subsidy for capitalcosts is considered justified in one of the least affluent areas of ruralNigeria. There will be no water charge on valley swamp farms beyond fullrecovery of credit. During negotiations, assurances were obtained that allinputs and hire services provided by the project to participating farmerswould be charged at a sufficient level to recover their cost, except in thoseinstances where an official subsidy is applied.

9.04 NSG's cash flow (Annex 2, Table 12) is negative, which is typicalfor such a project, and is in line with Nigerian policy of transfering oilrevenues to the agricultural sector. The annual deficit is at its highest inthe first year of the project, at N 4.8 million (US$7.4 million). It averages

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N 3.0 million (US$4.6 million) over the five year development period. Inthe period of repayment of the Bank loan it falls from a Year 7 peak of N 4.4million (US$6.8 million) to settle finally at N 1.6 million (US$2.5 million)once repayment is completed.

X. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Overall Project Benefits

10.01 It is estimated that about 75% of project area farm families(60,000) would directly benefit from the project. Farm incomes would besignificantly increased (para. 9.02) and better standards of living andnutrition can be expected. As Nigeria is a net importer of food the incre-mental production would directly reduce imports; at border prices foreignexchange savings from this could be at least US$12 million per year from Year7 onwards, while foreign exchange earnings from the export of cotton could beabout US$2 million per year.

10.02 Through assistance to ASP participants and commercial farmers, theproject would demonstrate benefits obtainable from better management practicesand improved technology, thus encouraging development of commercial agricul-ture in the area.

10.03 The local capability in the field of rural development would beimproved through institution-building and the training of technical and

managerial staff. This would facilitate planning and implementation of futureprojects and set the stage for expanded statewide development. The projectwould also demonstrate the scope for commercial development of support ser-vices and for decentralizing public sector operations in agricultural develop-ment. This could have a far-reaching and profound impact on agriculturaldevelopment policies and programs of the Government.

10.04 During the project development period, about 20,000 man years ofadditional employment would be created. From year 5 onwards incrementalannual onfarm employment would be about 8,000 man years. Additional non-farm employment in other sectors such as construction, trading, transporta-tion, processing, etc. would also be generated by the project induced increasein the level of economic activity in the area.

Economic Rate of Return

10.05 In calculating the economic rate of return, the following assump-tions and methods were used: (a) Project Life: assumed to be 25 yearsincluding a 5-year investment period during which development activitieswould be substantially completed; (b) Project Costs: (i) all identifiabletaxes and duties on goods and services were excluded; (ii) price contin-gencies were excluded but baseline physical contingencies costs have beenincluded; (iii) all farm inputs were costed at full landed price at Bida;

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(iv) costs for monitoring and evaluation and consultants were excluded as theirbenefits are non-quantifiable; (v) hired farm labor and male family labor werecosted at 80% and female family labor at 50% of market wage rates (N 2.40) toreflect average opportunity cost, labor productivity and the seasonal natureof employment in the project area; (vi) incremental recurrent costs for farmsupport services were assumed to decrease by 10%/annum from year 6 untilyear 10 after which they were assumed to be about 50% of year 5 costs. Thiswas based on the assumption that, during the post-project phase, improvedtechnology would be adequately diffused allowing reduced support from publicagencies; (vii) costs of road maintenance were not taken into account afteryear 5 as they were assumed to be offset by non-project road user savingsnot included in the analysis; and (viii) all foreign exchange costs wereadjusted by a shadow exchange rate of 0.8 times the official rate (shadowexchange rate N 1.00:US$1.23).

(c) Project Benefits:

(i) project benefits primarily accrue from increased crop production,which has been valued at economic farmgate prices derived from internationalparity (adjusted using the shadow exchange rate) based on IBRD forecasts for1985 in constant 1978 dollars, or from domestic retail prices, as appropriate;(ii) no additional benefits from improved roads and rural infrastructure werecalculated; (iii) no residual value was attributed to assets at the end ofthe project's economic life.

10.06 On the above basis, the economic rate of return (ERR) for theoverall project is estimated to be 16%. The ERR for the irrigation and watercontrol schemes is estimated to be 12%.

10.07 The Bank is currently reviewing the appropriate shadow exchangerate and other relevant economic parameters for the economic analysis ofprojects in Nigeria. If, for purposes of illustration, the project wereanalysed with a shadow exchange rate of N 1.00:US$1.00 (rather than theshadow rate of N 1.00:US$1.23 used above, or the official rate of N 1.00:US$1.54) the economic rate of return would go from 16% to 25%. The use ofduties and quantitative restrictions (including outright prohibition) onimports to protect the balance of payments has been increasing considerablyover the past year. If Nigeria's inflation continues substantially to ex-ceed the rates prevailing among its trading partners one may expect eithersome exchange rate adjustment, or still further increases in trade controls.The latter option would imply an increasing gap between the shadow exchangerate and the official rate, which would approximately offset the effectsof differential rates of inflation on the economic rate of return (as wouldprogressive exchange rate adjustment).

Risk and Sensitivity Analysis

10.08 Shortage of professional staff at all levels, lack of timely andadequate flow of state and federal funds, technical weaknesses and slowerthan anticipated adoption of the proposed technology could in principle

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represent risks to effective project implementation. The manpower constraintswould be overcome by employing experienced internationally recruited staffwhile providing intensive training for local staff. This strategy hasproved successful in other Nigerian projects and is acceptable to the govern-ment. Lack of proper funding by Government has emerged as one of the mostdifficult problems for the ongoing projects and could hinder implementation ofthis one. Assurances were obtained that should reduce this risk (see para5.28). Technical risks for the project are considered minimal because theproposed technology is simple, tested, easily understood and would not requiremajor changes in the cropping pattern and other institutional arrangements.The agronomic recommendations are based on careful evaluation of experimentalresults, field trials and experience on ongoing projects, and the yieldestimates are considered realistic. The project would provide sufficienttechnical advice and supervision, and would provide adequate farm supportservices. With these safeguards, experience on other projects has demon-strated that farmer response to project measures should be as projected.

10.09 Sensitivity tests have been used to evaluate the potential impact onthe rate of return of various possible limiting factors, including an overalldelay of one year in project benefits (ERR 11%), increases in costs by 10%(ERR 12%), increases in costs by 15% (ERR 9%), 10% decrease in benefits (ERR11%) and project life reduced by 5 years (ERR 15%). If adoption rates are80%, 70% and 60% of estimated targets, the ERR would be 12%, 10% and 7%,respectively. These tests suggest that the project as designed could with-stand the possible risks and still be economically viable.

XI. RECOMMENDATIONS AND AGREEMENTS REACHED

11.01 During negotiations assurances were obtained that:

(a) fertilizer procurement under ICB would be undertakenaccording to a strict timetable agreed between FMGand the Bank, who would jointly monitor progress, andthat the system of procurement by CFU would be reviewedafter two years (para 5.09);

(b) the State Government would make at least 200 ha of landfor seed multiplication available to the project no laterthan 31 December, 1979 (para 5.10);

(c) the State Government would prepare and agree with the Bankno later than 30 June, 1983 detailed plans for long-termmaintenance of project area roads (para 5.13);

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(d) BPMU would be responsible for the preparation of detailed

terms of reference for consultants to be employed underthe project for review by the Bank; and that consultantswould be appointed with qualifications, experience and onterms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank (para 5.21);

(e) Bank disbursements would be made directly to BPMU'scommercial bank account (para 5.28 (c));

(f) BPMU would have authority to establish overdraft facilitiesequivalent to six months working capital requirement asestimated in the annual budget approved by the State, andthe overdraft would be guaranteed by NSG (para 5.28 (d));

(g) FMG and NSG would provide quarterly contributions to theproject at least 3 months in advance, in accordance withthe approved annual budget (para 5.28 (b));

(h) the management of BPMU would submit to FMAWR, State MNRand the Bank the project's proposed annual budget, asapproved by BPEC, at least 4 months prior to each fiscalyear (para 5.28 (a));

(i) BPMU would receive in advance (September previous to thepurchase year) subventions from FMG and NSG to cover theestimated cost of farm input subsidies (para 5.28 (e));

(j) in addition to its contribution to incremental costs,NSG would continue to finance the present real 'Level ofgovernment expenditures in the project area (para 5.28);

(k) BPMU's audited accounts and the auditor's report, includinga statement as to whether or not Bank funds had been usedfor their intended purpose, would be submitted to the Bankwithin four months of the end of the fiscal year (para 5.30);

(1) MNR would give high priority to BPMU staff recruitment andas far as possible promptly accede to BPMU requests forsecondment of MNR technical and other staff to the project(para 8.03 (a));

(m) Niger State would transfer to the project responsibilityfor all agricultural extension work in the project area,no later than 1 April, 1980 (para 8.03(b));

(n) persons appointed to certain senior positions on theproject (list at para 8.06) would be recruited interna-tionally, with qualifications and experience and on termsand conditions of employment acceptable to the Bank (para8.06);

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(o) the senior training officer would be appointed no laterthan December 31, 1979 (para 8.06);

(p) medium term loans would bear an interest rate of 9 1/2%,or 2% above NACB's maximum current lending rate, and sea-sonal loans a service charge of 10%, or 2 1/2% above theNACB rate (para 8.10);

(q) no later than 31 December, 1982, the Federal and StateGovernments, together with the Bank, would review projectprogress and plans drawn up by the Monitoring Evaluationand Planning Unit (in conjunction with APMEPU) and wouldmake recommendations for the future of the project (para8.14);

(r) participants in project irrigation schemes would make con-tributions to the recovery of capital costs of developmentat agreed levels (details at para 9.03); and

(s) all inputs and hire services provided by the projectto participating farmers would be charged at a sufficientlevel to recover the full cost of those inputs and services,except in those instances where an official subsidy isapplied (para 9.03).

11.02 Conditions of loan effectiveness would include:

(a) opening of a separate bank account for BPMU with acommercial bank with an initial deposit of N 1.0 mil-lion (para 5.26);

(b) signing of the subsidiary loan agreement between theFMG and the Niger State Government (para 5.27);

(c) gazette notification establishing BPMU and BPEC withterms of reference and composition acceptable to theBank (para 8.01); and

(d) appointment of the project manager and the chief account-ant (para 8.06).

11.03 On the basis of the above assurances and conditions, the projectis suitable for a US$23.0 million loan to the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

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NIGERIAANNEX 1

NIGER STATE Table 1

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Present Land Use in the Project Area

(a) Main Land UnitsArea Area Cultivated

km2 % km2 % of Unit

Land Form

Undulating Plain 13,000 76.5 1,750 13.5Depositional Swamps 600 3.5 200 33.3Upper Niger Terraces 1,000 5.8 130 1.3Lower Niger Terraces 1,820 10.7 15 0.8Hilly Upland 600 3.5 - -

Total 17,020 100.0 2,095

(b) Farm Sizes and Distribution

Size Range (ha) No. of Farms (M) % of Area

Less than 1.0 13 31.0 to 1.6 20 81.61 to 2.8 23 152.81 to 4.0 20 214.01 to 6.0 11 166.01 to 12.0 10 22Over 12 3 14

Total 100 100

(c) Composition of Smallholder Farms (see para 4.23 for definition of terms)

System % of Farms Av. Holding Size

1/3 bata (irrigable) 75 3.1 ha2/3 lati (upland)Wholly lati (upland) 19 3.1 haWholly bata (irrigable) 5 1.0 haCommercial (undifferentiated) 1 25.0 ha

Total 100

(d) Area Production and per ha Yields of Major Crops

Crops Area % of Area Production Yields/ha('000 ha) ('000 m tons) (m tons)

Sorghum 67.0 32.5 40.2 0.60Rice (paddy) 40.0 19.4 39.6 0.75 2/kMillet 21.7 10.5 10.8 0.50Groundnuts (shelled) 14.0 6.8 7.0 0.50Cowpea 14.0 6.8 70.0 0.12Yam 14.0 6.8 70.0 5.00Cassava 14.0 6.8 56.0 4.00Bambara 12.0 5.8 4.8 0.40Maize 3.0 1.4 1.8 0.60Cotton 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.30Other 1/ 4.9 2.3 N.A. N.A.

Total 205.7

1/ Okra, peppers, sweet potatoes, beniseed, etc._/ Average for 80% of the area higher on irrigated schemes.

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- 47 -ANNEX 1

NIGERIA Table 2

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop DeveloPment('000 hectares)

Crop Unit Pre-Project Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Increment

SorghumTraditional ha 67.00 66.70 65.40 64.00 61.10 58.50 8.50)Improved ha - 2.00 5.00 8.20 11.90 16.00 16.00

Subtotal ha 67.00 68.70 70.40 72.20 73.00 74.50 7.50

RiceTraditional

Formal schemes ha 1.25 0.55 - - - - ( 1.25)Farmer schemes ha 4.00 3.50 2.85 1.15 - - ( 4.00)Rainfed schemes ha 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.50 4.00 ( 0.75)Valley runoff ha 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 5.50 4.00 ( 6.00)Hydronorphic ha 10.00 9.20 8.20 7.20 5.90 4.90 ( 5.10)Rainfed ha 10.00 10.00 9.10 8.00 6.80 6.30 ( 3.70)

Improved

Advanced schemes ha - 0.70 1.40 2.00 2.10 2.10 2.10Improved schemes ha 0.60 1.60 2.80 4.00 5.20 5.20Uncontrolled schemes ha - 1.70 4.10 7.10 11.20 13.50 13.50

Subtotal ha 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00

Maize

Traditional ha 3.00 3.10 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.40 0.40Improved ha - -- 0.50 1.50 3.20 5.0Co 5.00

Subtotai ha 3.00 3.10 3.80 4.90 6.60 8.40 5.40

Groundnuts

Traditional ha 14.00 14.30 13.70 12.40 12.20 11.80 ( 2.20)Advanced ha - - - 0.20 0.30 0.50 0.50Improved ha - - 1.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 _3.50

Subtotal ha 14.00 14.30 14.70 15.10 15.50 15.80 1.B0

Bambara

Traditional ha 12.00 11.00 11.40 10.90 10.20 9.40 2.60Improved ha - 0.20 0.70 1.30 _ __2.20 3.20 3.20

Subtotal ha 12.00 11.20 12.10 12.20 12.40 12.60 0.60

Cowpeas

Traditional ha 14.00 14.60 14.90 15.20 15.50 15.80 1.80Advanced ha - 0.10 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00

Subtotal ha 14.00 14.70 15.40 16.20 17.00 17.80 3.80

Yam

Traditional ha 14.0 13.70 13.50 13.20 12.70 11.90 ( 2.10)Improved ha C.40 0.90 1.60 2.50 3.70 3.70

Subtotal ha 14.0 14.10 14.40 14.80 15.20 15.60 1.60

Cassava

Traditional ha 14.00 14.40 14.40 14.20 1i.00 14.00Improved ha - - 0.30 0.60 1.10 1.60 1.60

Subtotal ha 14.40 14.40 14.70 14.80 15.10 15.60 1.60

Cotton

Traditional ha 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00 ( 0.10)Advanced ha - - 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00

Subtotal ha 1.10 1.10 1.60 2.10 3.00 4.00 2.90

Others Crops

Miscellaneous Traditional 2/ ha 4.90 6.40 6.30 4.90 3.70 2.00 ( 2.90)Millet i Traditional ha 21.70 22.00 22.70 24.10 25.30 26.40 _470

TOTAL All Crops 3/ ha 205.70 210.80 216.10 221.50 227.00 232.70 27.00

1/ Farm inputs but no water control.2/ Pure stand or intercropped. Crops include Okra, Sweet Potatoes, Kenaf,

Melon, Chillies, Sugarcane., Fruit, Vegetables and Tobacco.3/ Assumes a 2.57, annual increase in line with population growth.

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8ANNEX 48 - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Table

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIOA AGRICOLYLIRAL DEVELOFMNE FROJECT

Crop Prod-ntio( QOetrle tons)

C-oP Unit Upit/ha . re-Proleot Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year f lar 6 Year 7 leCreeetal

googhue (Gra.i)

t-editio..1 .. ton 0.6 40.2 40.0 39.2 38.4 36.7 35.1 35. 35.1 ( 5.1)Impro-rd tton 1.2 . 2.4 6.0 9.8 14.3 19.2 19.2 192 19.2

40.2 42.4 45.2 49.2 51.0 54.3 54.3 54.3 14.1[p-d.cti.on without project 4/ 40.2 41.2 42.2 43.3 44.4 45.5 45.5 45.5 5.3

l.creneotal p-oj-et produbtio. It - 1.2 3.9 4.9 6.6 8.E 8.8 8.8 8.8

Pie (FPddy)

YpaAltcoon l Formal Orhe,es = .to n 2.5 3.1 t.- - - - ( 3.1)Farmer Schemes s.to 1.6 14.0 13.2 12.2 9.4 7.2 6.4 6.4 6.4 ( 7.6)other =.top 0.75 22.5 21.L 19.0 16.6 13.6 11.4 11.4 11.4 ( 11.)

lep-orod: Adoso-rd Sch-mes _/ o.tec 3.5 - 2.1 4.3 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3IepVr d Schema 3/ ett 2.5 -1.1 3.3 6.3 9.2 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.0Pvootrpolled SchemeS 4/ ::toon 1.6 - 2 7 6.6 1t.4 17.9 21.6 21.6 21 6 21.6

39.6 41.8 45.6 50.1 55.0 58.9 59.4 59.7 20.1

Productton without proJect 39.6 40.6 41.6 42.6 43.7 44.0 44.9 44.8 5.2

O--ceernt1 project prod-ctior - 1.2 4.0 7.5 11,3 14.1 14.6 14.9 14.9

Siae ((rain) 5/

T-adit r.a- l.tor 0.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.1Improved ntoe 1.5 - - o.9 2.3 4. 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

1.9 2.0 2.8 4.3 6.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6Producction colthoot project 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.2

lecremebntal proloct predocti.r - - O.R 2.3 4.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4

Grouednuts (sbhllod)

Tr-ditcooal e1mt 0.5 7.0 7., 6,9 6.1 5. 9 5.9 5.9 5.9 9 1.1)Advanced m.too 1.1 - - - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6leprered n.ton 0.9 0,9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.2 _ .2 3.2

7.0 7.2 7.8 8.7 8.9 9.7 9.7 9.7 2.7

Ppod-titot 0ith14t project 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 0.9

1--remocal project produtto - - 0,4 1.2 1,2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

BOabara Nute (shelled)

Wraditi-osl etoS 0.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 ( 1.0)lprov-d tm 0. - 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2,6

4.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.4 6.4 1.6

frodootiot wieho-r project 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 0.6

Itto teet1l project prod.ctro. - - 0,2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Co-poas (shelld)

Tradiioosl .. ton 0.12 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7Ad--noed =.or 1.0 d - 00.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 1,6 1.6

1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.6

Prod.ctie- iittout project 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 1 1.9 1.9 0_2

I -crteetal p-oJect pr-dortlee - 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Ys.. (tlbsh)

Treditit..l .toc 5.0 70.0 68.5 67.5 66.0 63.5 59.5 59.5 59.5 ( 10.5)I_pro-rd m.It 9.0 - 3.6 8.1 14.4 22.5 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3

70.0 72.1 75.6 80.4 86.0 9218 92.9 92.8 22.8

Productioo clrhese project 70.0 71.9 73.5 75.4 77.3 79.2 79.2 79.2 9.2

I-c-ental proj-ct prod-ction * 0.3 2.1 5.0 8.3 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6

Cassava (tobee)

Traditt-l o.ter 4.0 56.0 57.6 57.6 56.8 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 -I-prov-d e.toe 12.0 - - 3.6 7,2 13.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2

56.0 57.6 6t.2 64.8 70.0 75.2 75.2 75.2 19.2

Froduction rithO-t project 36.0 57.6 58.8 60.3 61.8 63.4 63.4 63.4 7.4

I1cre-etal project prodctlon - - 2.4 4.5 8.2 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8

cott (eed)

Trediti-l mm.t0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0. 0.0 -Adva.ced m.trr 0.9 - 0.5 0,9 1.B 2.7 2.7 2,7 2.7

0.3 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7

P-od-lt-o tithout prcJec, 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -

I--remert.l pro-jct pr2duction .- - 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Mit-nellaneso cpore and illet 6/ -

17 Project prod-ction i-rre.sed annually by 2.5%. . t. 5 pressed as grain, bt ta-ditlor-lly -rops harve-ted oree R- reoctbhlen.27 I1credmntal prodi- ctln doe solely to pro-jetct Ire. tttctdoo /bove. 2,/ No yield eatitates.3/ Yields increace after cornetructioe at fotlolovin pate.:

Ye-r oif tostru-tite: 85% of poteti1alO- yra _ a -ter cocstroction, 902 of potentilaThe years eftec c-estrctloe- 100i. of porentite.

4/ Rice grorateg -eeaa rereivilg Improved seeds d d fertilier,bot vith no water co.t-ol nees.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

AGRONOM1C RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FIELD CROPS

Seed Fertilizer Insecticides Herbicides Fungicides Farm Powercrop Variety Kg/Ha 1/ Dressing Type Kg/Ha Type Rate/H. 3/ Type Rate/Ha T /a Msnday/Hs Mech.

Paddy: Serviced FARO 18 40 Agrosan 5W CAN 50 none - - - - - 15 x20-20-0 50

Improved FARO 18/23 40 CAN 100 - Butylate 3.2 kg - - 145 yes20-20-10 100

Advanced FARO 15/23 40 CAN 200 (temaline 20 1.2 lit " 3.2 kg Blasticidin 3.8 kg -20-20-20 150 115 yes

Traditional Local 25 x - - - - _- - 110 x

Sorghum:

Improved FARA FARA 12 Aldrex T CAN 100 - -20-20-0 50 - - - - 80 x

Advanced FARA FARA 12 Aldrea T CAN 100 - - Atrazine 80 0.8 kg - - 55 yesor F 241 20-20-0 50 - - - -

Traditional Local 7 - - - - - - - - - 55 x

Millet:Improved Local 9 - 20-20-0 100 - - - - - - 60 xTraditional Local 5 - - - - - 45 x

Maize:Improved NCAfNCB 30 Aldrex T CAN 100 Lindane 2.5 kg/ Atrazine 80 0.8 kg - _ 85 x

20-20-10 50Advanced NCA/NCB 20 Aldrex T CAN 100 Lindane 2.5 kg/ Atrazine 80 0.8 kg - - 50 yes

20-20-10 50 - - - - - - -Traditional Local 12 - - 60 x

Groundnuts:Improved M25/68 or 45 Fernasor. 1D SSP 150 - - - _ - - 120 x

69/101Advanced 45 DO 0-20-10 200 - - Trif 48% 0.4 kg Thiram or 3.8 kg 90 yes

Blasticidin 3.8 kgTraditional Local 30 - - - - - 90 x >

Bambara:Improved Local 50 Fernason D SSP 150 - - - - - - 70 xTraditonal Local 25 - - - - - - - - - 55 x

Cowpea:Advanced 3/14, 1/80 or 76/60 25 - SSP 50 Endosulf ULV 1.5 lit. - - - - 80 xTraditional Local 10 - - - - - - - - - 50 x

Yams:

Improved Local 3,000 - 20-10-10 100 Aldrin 2.5 1.5 kg - - - - 240 xAdvanced Local 3,000 - 20-10-10 100 Aldrin 2.5 1.5 kg Linuron 50% 1.6 kg - - 300 xTraditional Local 1,500 - -_- - - - - - 170 x

Cassava:Improved IITA 10,000 - 20-20-20 100 - - - 130 xTraditional Local 6,500 _- - - - - - 90 x

Cotton:improved IAR 20 - 2/ 100 En8nso1flU1LVL,I.5 lit - - - - xAdvanced IAR 20 - 2/ 100 Endosulf ULV 1.5 lit Diuron 0.4 kg - - 75 yesTraditional IAR 20 - - - - - - - - - 50 x

1/ For Cassava number of stem cuttings per ha.2/ Boronated Superphosphate.3/ For Maie rate is per ton of cobs; used as storage protection;

For Yams, rate per 3,000 kg of setts dusted prior to planting. -

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NIGERIA61014

NICER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTUIRAL REVELOPMENT PROJECT

Fare Inert Rosuire-t:sE Q-O netitis and Value

Quantoty Value _1

Year 1 Veer 2 Yea.- Ya Year 5 ToesE Yea 0 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year S Totall

Seeds 1)

Sorghum 24 36 60 84 108 301 8 12 20 2? 35 102R-ce 120 160 320 360 520 1,480 42 56 112 126 102 518Raise - 10 20 44 56 130 - 3 6 13 17 39

Crosedvue ~ ~ ~~~~~~~- 45 78 72 110 305 - 20 35 32 55 137Cespea ~ ~ ~~~~~~ ~ ~~3 10 16 23 00 71 2 4 0 80 8 31

Cassav 21- 3,000 3,000 8,000 8,000 22,'000 .. 3 R 22

152) (46) 183) (33) 8 4)

F-rtili-e

CAN 485 1,195 2,005 2,890 3,715 10,290 85 200 351 506 650 1,801SoP 35 280 620 805 1:,105 2,895 6 47 105 140 187 489Compound 390 970 1, 680 2,450 3,10 8,680 83 208 360 524 683 0,818Bo ere SFso5 000 200 380 650 I 0 21 4j2 62 13 5

(174) (3001 (363) (379) (366)

Iuse-tlriden 37

Ca-elie 20 840 1,880 2,400 2,520 2,520 9,060 2 3 5 5 5 20Fedosuiphar 130 8,500 3,000 5,250 7,500 11,400 1 3 7 12 17 40AlOIne 2.5 lkg) 600 1,40 2,400 3,800 5,600 13,800 1 2 4 16 7 20Lind-ne (kg) - 2,'000 6,080 12,800 09,000 45,000 - 3 8 16 2552

1 4) 16) 113) 115) 15E)

Herbi,ides 'coo--- -- - -- -- k0 g A.0.…-- - -- - - -- -- - - --

Eutylat-4 22 6.0 89. 9.7 6.7 34.3 6 14 21 23 24 90Alla.n -0.4 1.2 2.6 4.3 8.2 -3 10 21 32 66Trllualn484. 5/ -- 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -- 3 3 61Li-u0c SOY 6) 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.0 7.3 2 3 7 00 15 3Wturo -0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.6 -2 4 8 12 26

18) 1 4) 123) 123) 2 6)

--------------- 000K E----------------

Bl-aslldin 3.0 7.0 11.6 15.0 20.0 56.6 7 02 28 36 48 136.0Agrtos 380.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.1 ).C,2 3.3 0.5 0.8 003.0Aldee, T .103 . 0.9 1.3 32 1.0.7 3.4 0. 1.2 17 4.0Fervaso D 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.6 -I. 1. 1.5 ~ 1-~ 7.0.0I

(7.4) (00.9) (12.0) 9 .3) (13.2)

MaIze Sltore(NOSS 7/ 0 050 300 600 900 2,000 - 8.0 23.0 45.0 90.0 135,0 _301.0

18) )15( 22) (45) (45)

Hard Tone COON .0t18/ ~~~60 90 150 210 250 760 12C.0 180.0 300.0 420 0__ _500,0___1320,0

(120) (60) (120) (120) 180)

I/ Banbara seeds .ud yam sores homegre-wn; co .u ande suppledby CotteDevelopment Boad fro of c,hsrga. ProJ-c suPpplIe seds forthocecro psare improvd seeds and supplied every third year.

2/ C. _sv cttings in '000 number.- Procurd Ora IOTA and soppliedevey third yea.,

3/ Iv-lodos field cud stuage lv... -Icide- Ga-nliu used at fieldi.. lu tirucidsfreadosecd rice, E.d...lphan on c-npoa and -tuuo (U1LV(, Liudane dustedno Male cobs for- ua protection aud Alddlne dustd on pu sstts priorso plavting.

4/ A.s..e. seed u all adn-s-d rice al 25% of improvedrie5/H advancd g-sod-or onty.6/ o 50% of yam he only.

7) Each store (10 m3) wold hald about 5 tons. Coet 8130,8/ C-tla.s... hues, apado, etc 18 pi-ee per family. Replaced evey fouth

9) Values in pa-th ...is ahss annual -nsna ot to p-sj-ct.

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- 51 -ANNEX 1Table 6

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

PHASING OF ROAD CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE

Year -----… -------- Construction------------------------Maintenance-- kkm---- Periodic Routine

1 100 - 30 + 70 1/

2. 180 20 210 t 50

3 180 30 410 + 20

4 100 200 550

5 60 250 600

Following Years - (320) (660)

620 500 1,800+ 140= 1,940

1/ Routine maintenance and repair/reconstruction of structures onFederal and State roads.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

RIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMINT PROJECT

FRODUCTIOh RATES AFPI FfLAPT POSOlOtHePPS. FOR GONPTRICioNN VINITS

Road Lep-th Eke) Quatitie per ke Plat - H

Type 1 U/ Type 2 2/ Type I Type 2 Unit Total QuaEtity OUtDpt Rate. Doze Grader Rolrr lpheel Leader T

inDDr

Road t-n-trucliop

Total LNegth 590 30 k - he _ _ - _ _ - _

C eap rs -D

Open CO.n.ry or -tpttttod Nolh 565 15 '.Z 0.6 ha 700 0.2 he/h 3,500 - o - _Fore.t, 25 15 1.2 0.6 he 40 0.12 ha/h 340Topsoili.p 60 10 1,500 1,000 m3 100,000 50 e3/h 2,000

E.rth-orka

,'ape on SIte 550 20 640 250 c3 357,000 50 e3/h 7,140 -lo--.et and Ped l 40 10 3,000 1,600 p3 168,000 30 f 60 e3/h 2,800 - - 5,600 16,800Shape end Crmpact (ubgRadel 590 30 5,500 5500 aD 3,410,000 1,500 p2/h - 2,280 2,280 -

S-rf-clim

Eoc..atpon and HaNUaRe 590 30 800 000 m3 49,600 30 - 60 N3/h 8,267 - Ib,533 49,b0O

P01-060 aod Shaping 590 30 5,200 5, 200 m2 322,400 1,500 p2/h - 2,149 -

Conpe-tlop 590 30 5,200 5,200 m2 3,224,000 m00 p2/h 3,800

nrsttns

Roedeide Dra-s 590 30 1.6 1.6 k 092-Offahoot Dra-ni 590 30 0.5 0.0 km 310 30 ,/dn-

Culver. and -rid.rs

0 60 op 590 30 2 2 P. 1,240 3 pR/daT _ _ _ _

0 90 ce 590 30 0.5 0.5 P, 310 2 p0/day - _ _ -

rldg -or 3 to 5 sp-e - - m- 2 300

L.sd Acui.ltlo 590 30 1.2 0.6 h. 726

Subtotal 24,Q4Y 4,429 6,080 22,133 66,400

LnR-nd MaiLo.ano. Perlodi Mao.t.oance jc

Sonracing 0It 20 520 520 e.3 67,600 15 - 30 e3tNa7 4,506 - - 2,253 11,266ShopIog 450 20 5.200 5,200 m2 2,44410W 1,500 m2/h - 1,630 - - -No,,patllon 450 20 5,200 5,200 2 2,444,O000 050 p2/hp - - 2,880 - -

Sobtotel 4,506 1,630 2,880 2,253 11,266

Rootloc Nelntpoaonc

IradloR 4,500 200 5,200 5,200 p2 24,440,000 4,000 m2/h - 6,110

Drain ClIenioR 1,500 60 1.6 1.6 rhe -2,500 3 kmh - 840

Sobtotal 6,950 - - _

lIoto.e.eet of FPd.ral aStat reed.

R.con,tnnctjyn 0f CuL1-1t, Repair ofnidOg. and Routine MaIntepanP upto 1980 only)

Total 1Ingth 138 (vieth for otroctore, 10.50 m)

C-lvert- end Bridng-

0 60 cm 130 ,.2 0.2 - pc 28 1 p /day

0 90 e 130 - 0 1 - pc 14 1 pt/dayBldgo Uork 3-5 n span - - - - m2 150

Routine Maintentancp

Oreding lorfoe a shepingl 300 - 5,70' m2 1,560,000 4,000 m7/h - 390

DaIn CGleanIng 450 - 1.6 k km 720 3 km/h _ 240

Subtotal 630

TOTAL 28,553 13,009 8,960 24,386 77,666

Total pen y-er (4 4 year- Iota1/ 6,345 2,891 1,991 5,419 17,259

Nuhber of USir 3 2 4 Gs

A-n-age Ootpot per ano- (hour-) 1,269 963 995 1,354 1,150

I/ Construrtlon C- o- -of - or-dtp--ding t ypo-p-d -n-dnd. in

R--Contr-clion of to C road, st -ordiog no prop-oe d -n-ddo r.

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- 533

ANNEX 2TABLE 1

NIGERIANIGER STATE

PIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTSUMMARY OF PROJECT COSTS(IN THOUSANDS OF NAIRA).

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 TOTAL LOCAL LOCAL F.E. F.E.TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL COSTS (1) COSTS (2) COSTS

!' iTtMLNT CUiZTSBIJILDINGO AND HOUSES 2,028.9 2,423.6 1,072.1 323.5 - 5,848.1 61.0 3,565.9 39.0 2,282.3YLltCLES AND EQUIPMENT 2,252.9 905.7 109.3 451.9 372.2 4,092.0 22.5 921.9 77.5 3,171.0IREJfOATTON DEVELOPMENT COSTS 525.8 598.0 1,070.4 518.0 168.0 2,880.2 75.0 2,160.2 25.0 720.0

SUB TOTAL 4,807.6 3,927.3 2,251.8 1,293.4 540.2 12,820.3 51,9 6,648.0 48.2 6,173.3

RECURRENT COSTSSlAFF SALARIES 1,338.2 1,656.4 1,812.7 1,812.9 1,731.3 8,351.5 73.8 6,160.0 26.2 2,191.5OPERATINGOCOSTS 449.2 744.0 780.4 732.6 685.3 3,391.5 59.0 2,000.8 41.2 1,398.3INCREMENTAL FARM INPUTS 373.0 452.0 638.0 621.0 629.0 2,713.0 25,0 678.2 75.0 2,034.8TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 25.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 - 250.0 - - 100.0 250.0MEDIUM TERM CASH LOANS 149.0 211.0 239.0 88.0 56.0 743.0 100.0 743.0 - -

SUB TOTAL .2,334.4 3,138.4 3,545.1 3,329.5 3,101.6 15,449.0 62.0 9,582.0 38.0 5,874.6

[ASELINE COSTS 7,142,0 7,065.7 5,796.9 4,622.9 3,641.8 28,269.3 57.4 16,230.0 42.6 12,047.9

-HYSICAL CONTINGENCIES 420.0 430.3 408.3 287.9 195.5 1,742.0 62.5 1,088.0 37.5 654.0IRICE CONTINGENCIES 922.9 2,087.4 2,807.4 2,980.4 3,027.7 11,825.8 81.1 9,585.7 18.9 2,240.1

TOTAL CONTINGENCIES 1,342.9 2,517.7 3,215.7 3,268.3 3,223.2 13,567.8 78.7 10,673.7 21.3 2,894.1

TOTAL PROJECI COSTS 8,484.9 9,583.4 9,012.6 7,891.2 6,865.0 41,837.1 64.3 26,903.7 35.7 14,942.0

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-A

. ....... .22223 . -. .. -.

2-W 31 l i H 1 T 1 3 ,

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NI GERIA TRABLE3NIGER STATE

NIDA AGRICULTURAL DEOCLOPMElAT PROJECTNUIL OONIS AND R4OUSES IN)(IN THOUSANDS OF NAIRA)

QYEAR I UYEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR4 YEAR UNIT QART TOTAL OANT TOTAL OUANT TOTAL IUAlY TOTAL OUANT TOTAL TOTAL LOCAL LOCAL F.E. F.E.

EROT ~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~~~~~COSTS III COSTS Ill COSTS

PROJECT MNRRO OFFICESENTOR $0.11 2.0 100.0 1.0 10.0 . 150,0 60,0 90.0 40,0 60.0INTERNEDIATE 40.00 4,0 160,0 2.0 00.O 2.0 00.5o 320.0 600.0 192.0 40.0 028.0JUNIOR 525.00 - 2.0 50.0 1.T 25.0 -7, 00 4, 00 3.HACACUARTERB IGOILDINS 522,00 0.4 200,9 0.6 313.4 - 7 -22. 60.0 313.3 00.0 209.0

TOTAL - PROJECT MOR'S OFFICE 460.9 493.4 105.0 -- 1.067,3 60.T 640,3 40.0 427,0

AGRIERULTRRAL SEGVICES DEPT.SENIOR 50,0 -. 50.0 . 00 6. 3. 00 2.INTERMEDIATE 00.00 1.0 40.0 0.0 00.0 - - 10.0 60.0 72,0 40.0 40,0JUNIOR 25,00 - 3.150--- 25.0 60.0 45.0 40,0 30.0AREA IIEVELOPMENT CENTERS 750 .0 75.0 2. 5, 10 7. - 30.0 60,0 1500. 40,0 120,0FORM SERVICES CENTERS 40,00 6.0 000.0 6.0 240,0 6.0 24.3.0200020.0 60,0 550.0 -00 368.0

SUP TOTAL 405.0 545,0 115.0 200,0 1,465,0 60.0 079.0 40,0 506,0

SMALLN0OLDER EXTENSION UNITSENIOR 5s.00 - 0.0 50,0 - - 50.0 60.0 30.0 40,0 0.JUNIOR 25,00 - 00 25.0 - 2 50 6. 50 4, 0.0

000 TOTAL - 50 - 7.0 60,0 45,T 40.0 30,0

LAND URE PLANNING UNIT75070 600 40 400 30SENIOR 50.00 2.0 00. - 0. 00 6. 00 4,JUNIOR 25,00 2,0 50.0 3.0 75,0 - - 125,0 60.:0 75,0 40.0 30.0

SON TOTAL 050.0 75,0- 225,0 60.0 135,0 40.0 950

FARN NANAGENENT UASTSENIOR 50,00 1.0 50.0 1,0 50.0 --- 100.0 60,0 60,0 40.0 40.0JONOR 25.000 - 2.0 50.0 T,0 25,0- 75,0 60,0 45,0 40.0 30.0

SU. TOTAL 50,0 1OT.0 25.0 -- 175.0 6T,0 105,0 40,0 70,0

ICE'D NULTIPLICATOIN I EARN TRIALS

SENIOR 50,00 1.0 50.0 - - - 50,0 60.0 30.0 40.0 20.0

F05N TRIALS SECTIOIN

INTERMEDIATE 40,00 1.0 0,-- 4.0 U0 240-40.0 1,

SOPS RULTIPLOCATION SECTIONSENIOR 50.00 1,0 50.0 - 5, 00 3. O0 2,rNTE MEDIATE 40,00 1,0 40.0 40,0 60.0 24,0 40.0 1600JUINIOR 25,00 - 1,0 25.0 - 0220 60,0 15,0 40,0 10,0

SUN TOTAL 180.0 25.0 205.0 -60T 023.0 40,0 02.0

IRRIGATION SERVICES UNITSENIOR 50.00 1,0 50.0 2.0 500.0 --- 150.0 60.0 90.0 40,0 60,0JUNIOR 25.RO 1.0 25.0 2.0 50.0 7 5,0 60.0 45.0 40,0 30.0

030 TOTAL 75,0 050.0 - - 225.0 -0,0 135,0 40.0 90.0

TOTAL - AGNICULTURAL SERVICES DEFT. 060.0 070.0 340.0 200,0 2- 7. 001420 4. 4.

CURNERCIAL SERVICES DEPARTM0NTS"ENIOR 00.00 0.0 50,0 - - - - 0.0 60.0 30.0 40.0 20,0

SOLOS CR0000 UNITSLGTO50.00 1,0 50,0 -- 50,0 60,0 30.0 40.0 20.0INTERMEDIATE 40.00 - U. 00 00 60,0 20.0 40,0 0.JNIOR 25.00 4.0 100,0 4,0 100,T0 2.0 O 200 6. 152.0 40,0 ¶oo

TRNCTOO OSRE UNOTINTERMEDIATE 40,00 0.0 40.0 - -- 40,T 60.2 24,0 4.0 1O 6.0JUNIOR 25.00 0.0 25.0 2,0 50.0 7 - 210 600T 45.0 40.0 30.0

CROP PROTEOOION SNOTJUNIOR 25,00 1.0 21,0 2.0 10,0 --- 75,0 60.T 45,T 4.0 - 2 0.0

TOTAL - CORNERCIAL SERVICES DEPT. 290.0 240,0 50.0 - 5800T 60,0 3440, 40.0 -6,--

ENGINEERING DEPARTNENTSEinIO 50.00 2.0 100,0 2,0 100.0 2.T 1000.0 300.0 600 0010.0 400,0 020.0JUNIOR 25.00 3.0 75,0 4.0 100,0 2.0 50, - 225.0 6UOT 03, 40.0 90,0

TOTAL - ENGINEERING DEPNRTRENT 07-, 20.0. 150.0- 520.0 6T,0 310,0 40. 200.0

TRAINING DEPARTRENTSENOR 50.00 1.5 50,0 --- 50.0 60,0 30.0 40.0 2 0,JONIO 25.00 - 1.0 25.0 2,0 50.0 S0 6, 45.0 400 30.0TRAMINDN CENTER -OFFICE 35.00-- , 3S.0 35, 00 2. 00 1,TRAINING CENTER D ORNITORT 70.00 -- 0.0 20.00 . 7. 60,0 42.0 40.0 2.

TOTAL - TRAINING 0EPRARTNENT 50.0 2S,0 155,0 - 230.0 600,0 130.0 40,0 92.0

RONITDORNA I EVALUATIONMNONT. I COAL. UNITSENIO 50.00 1.0 50.0 . 50, -t-oo000 60.0 60.0 40.0 40.0INTERNEOOATE 40.00 - 0.0D 40,.0 - -- 400 60.0 24.0 40,0 09.0JUN1911. 25,00OD 5,0 125.0 5,0 125,0-- 25. 6T0 1.0 4, 000

GCHISTISOMIASIS UNITSONIOR 50.00 1.0 50.0 - -- 50.0 60.0 30,0 40.0 20.0JUNI OR 25.00 - 00 20.0 --- 25,0 60.0 15.0 40.0 00.0

TOTAL - MONITORING 1 EVALUATION 50.0 290.0 125,0 - - 465.0 60.0 279.0 40,0 106,0

ROAD INPROVEMENT NA)115.0 205.2 147.0 83.5 5. 70.0 70.0 309.6 30,0 171.3

60090 TOTAL 2.028,0 2.423,0 1.072,1 283,5 - 5,GOO,1 61,0 3.5140, 39,0 2.266,2

OF AAICAILOCAL SCOSTS 0,230,B G,474,6 650.0 078.5 - A 541,9 - -FORNEIN ECHCANGE EOSTS 790.1 940.0 414.1 1 05.1 - 2,206.3 - -

(REN$0910 STREP NOUNINA PROVIDED FOR OR. 10 AND 000V0.INOERNEDOATE NSOISINU FOR ORN. 8 TO IS AND JUNIOR FORBR. 6 TO (M)DTAILS ARE GRIWNS IN C-4, REPENDIX 6 OF PROJECT FILE.1*8 ATERIALS AND LAND ACGUISITION, APPROXINATE ANNUAL

BREAKDOWN OP TOTAL

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^ 56 -

ANNEX 2Table 4

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Summary of Irrigation Development Costs 1/

N '000

Rate Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total

Rehabilitation/Formal Schemes:

Badeggi 645 193.5 200.0 - - - 393.5

Edoehigi 645 193.5 258.0 177.4 - - 628.9

Loguma 645 54.8 - - 54.8

441.8 458.0 177.4 - - 1,077.2

Expansion - Formal Scheme:

Badeggi 2,500 - - 725.0 - - 725.0

Edozhigi 2,500 - - - 250.0 - 250.0

Loguma 2,500 - - - 100.0 - 100.0

- - 725.0 350.0 - 1,075.0

Improvement - Informal Schemes: 280 84.0 140.0 168.0 168.0 168.0 728.0

TOTAL 525.8 598.0 1,070.4 518.0 168.0 2,880.2

1/ Field construction costs do not include engineering overheads.

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6 886666~~~~~~~~~~ ~ 66..6..6..6.. .. 6

- - -- -- -- - - - -

6 6 .6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 - 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66666 666 6666666666666 666666666 - 6 6 6

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

666666 66-66 6666666 -66666666 6666666 6 666666 6666666 6666666666 6 6666.66.. 66. . .6.6. 6666666. 6

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66.6 6 6 6 .6 6 6 6 6.6 .6 6 666.6 6 6 66.6 6.66 6

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 . 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6666666666 6

66666666666 66666 6 66 666 6 66666 66666666 666 666666 8666666666666666666666 6

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 66 6 66 6 6 6 6 6 66 6 6 66 6

6 6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 66,66 666 666666666 666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666-666 666 6 6 6 66 6 6

666666 6 66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666 666666666 6 6 6 666666 66 6666666666 6 66666666666=66666666666666666666666666 66 666666666666666 66 66 66 666666 666666 6666666666666666666666 6 66 6 666 6 666666666 666 6666666666 66 6-6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . .6 6 66.6 6 666. .6 6

6 6 66 66 66 66 6 6 6 6 666 66 6 6 666 6 66 666 666 6 66 666 6666 6666 6 6 666 6 6 6.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66.6.6.6 6.6 6 6 6 .6 6. . . 6. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-6 6 6i66 6 6 6 66 66666 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 66 66 66 66.6 66.6666666666666

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- 58 -

ANNEX 2Table 6

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Incremental Farm Input Cost-

PY 1 PY 2 PY 3 PY 4 PY 5--- Naira '000' ------------------

Fertilizer 174 300 363 379 366

Seeds 52 46 85 33 84

Insecticides 4 6 13 15 15

Herbicides 8 14 23 20 26

Fungicides and

Seed Dressing 7 11 12 9 13

Maize Stores 8 15 22 45 45

Tools 120 60 120 120 80

Total 373 452 638 621 629

1/ See Annex 1, Table 5 for details.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Summary of Medium Term Loan - Seasonal Credit Requirements

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

…----------------------- '000 Naira---------------------

Medium Term Loan 1/

Formal Irrigation Schemes 75 78. 62 15 _

Informal Irrigation Schemes 33 55 66 66 66

Valley gwamps 33 55 66 66 66

Maize Stores 8 23 45 90 135

Total 149 211 239 237 267

Incremental 2 149 211 239 88 56

Seasonal Credit 3/ - ----------------------- 000 Naira ------------------------

Sorghum 50 125 205 298 400

Rice 65 150 240 305 365

Maize - 20 60 128 200

Groundnuts - 40 108 132 160

Cowpeas 4 20 40 60 80

Yam 16 36 64 100 148

Cotton - 25 50 100 150

Total 135 416 767 1,123 1,503

Incremental 135 281 351 356 380

1/ Repayable after three years. N110 per hectare covering Irrigation schemes

and valley swamps, farm development costs; N150 per maize store.

2/ Incremental loans are those incremental to repayments made in same year. H

3/ Repayable each year at harvest; would cover costs of purchased inputs, tools,

and specialized services by Project; N40 per hectare for groundnuts, cowpeas, ii

maize and yam; N50 per hectare of irrigated rice and cotton and N25 per hectare

of sorghum.

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ARIO IPLEAT I A( IOi

PROJECT 4025 00121CC~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~RJET IOT'N `11

CAR1 I, 3,11 5,4 'I,O 21. I ,0 0,4 .1,1 5.4 , . 27,0 50,0 13,5 50.0 13,5STATION W4101N I.1 - 1) o 0 1, 2,0 1.56 2.1 I, 20 1.0 02.4 50.0 64,3 500 4.30101100I ,54 10 0,.4004. 0 I,0 0, 0.4 6.0 5.0 3,2 50,0 3.2

GENLREAL O-ICE 444 (fANNUAL E'S T1 1,40 o 440 0,0 40,0 5.1.0 0, 25, 00 200 10 24 02, 400 - 05,0 0.0 400.

ND40 4 HOUSE 1211N1AK (ANNUA 441, ,04 15,0 04. 10.0 154- O 1SO.4 4 00.4 154,0 -

F1200 1.T 14 0,0 1, .4 04 1, .A 40 11 1 11.0 3,0 0.0 4, 0,0 4.5

PICK 4 1,54 (. 1.12 0, 1,o 5 0,0 I ' 0.5 4. 0,5 4,0 40.0 3.2 50.0 3.2

SUB TOTAL 1.4 S, 3.13 13A 3.31 15.0 51.3 7,3 51,3 3.2

4MAKLHOLE4 0430:44044 KJNIT

40 1, I01. 4,1 1.4 4, , 1,8a 2. 1,0 1. 1,0 4,:00 ,!0, ,

PERSONA L 124041011 1,00 I 0,0 E1 31 54 30 50 .1 44 .. . 23,0 5040 1,7 40.0 11.22104 42 1,50 1,0 1,5 4.4~~~~~~~~~~~~IS 4,2 3,5, 3,0 4,2, 4 0 4,5 10, 50.4 10,0 40.0 100.0

OAKEN 4,30 1,'0 6, 3 (1 011 O11, 4, 00 3,0 S, 41,0 50.0 40,2 50.0 41,2B0T000YCLES 0,0 06,4 115 10. 0 16 1610 2.2 164. 2.2 04. 24,> 89,0 50,0 4,46 54,0 44,4

0s11 r0TAL 23 54, 44.481 50,.0 54.4 .2100,0 50,2 120,4 50,2 022,4

L44D USE PLANNING KNITCAR 1,00 2,01 3,6 2.41 3 .' . ). 3.4 2. 0 3,6 480 50,0 4,0 50,:0 4.04-WHE1 K 110100 2,40 0, 2,.-4 1,4 2, 1.L 'T0 2, 4 1,0 24 , 2, I02,0 00. 4, 54,0 40

444 T0TAL 6,0 4,1' 4,0 4. .0 30,0 500 05,0 50,4 oS,o

'4014 4044004443 UNIT1200 1,00 1,0 0.4 2,0 3,0 2,4 3. 2,0 311 2.0 3.4 04. 40.0 4,2 50.4) 4.44 WHEE0K DR1VE 2,40 1,4 -24 .0 24 4,0 2.4 1.0 2,0 4 (.0 2,4 12.0 50,0 4,0 500 6,4

0411 1014K 4,2 0,0 6.0 6,0 4 .0 24,250.0~ 14.1 50,0 44,1

CA1R,0 40 , , , 00 14 14 1, , , . 50, 4,5 40,4 4.04-WHEEL0010 2.44E0,402.I0. 2, 0,0 2.4' 1,4 2. 1.4 2,4 02,0 50,0 4,0 50,0 4,0PICK Up 1,54 2,0 4,4 2.4 3,0 2.0 4420 3 ,02a 30 2l.0 4,.0 15,0 50,0 4,4 440. 7,3440000 20 KS0 2.30 1.4 2.3 3.0 6,0 3. 0 6,4 3,4 6, 9 4,0 6.0 24.0 50. 05,~;2 50.0 20,2144010 44 14141, 1. 00 (.4K1,U,,. .06,1 6'.0 00 32 5, ,TRU12 6.34 I, 1.0 4A 0. 5, .4 .4.3 0, 5 10 .I(, SO, 400 50.4 10.0M0T0R1(CC0L 1.1 4. I.,1 I2, (4 111.0 2.2, 0 2.0 2.10.4I 50.4 2. F10. 4

004 T00AK 06,4 2-.4 24.2 20.0 24,9 104,2 40.5 52,7 50.5 57,2

4-W800K 40100 2.40 1.0 2,4 1,0 2.4 1.0 2, 0.0 2.4 (4 2,4 .2,0 50.01 4,0 50,0 4.0000UP 0,50 0,0 05 30 4,53, 0 4. 0.0 4, 3.0 4. (4.5 50, 100 54. 0 00.00mcOTOrGCCL.E9 0.0 2,0 0,2 0. 0.13 01,0 1.3 104 1.,10 43 5. 0. ,0 5. 2.4

4111 TOTAL 4.1 0,2 4.2 0,2 0.2 34.0 50-,2 18,0 41.2 04.4

IRRIGATION0 UNIT080 1.44 1.0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: 1.4 2.0 4. 24 3. .0 3 22.0 3.4 02 U 0 4.1 50.0 a,1

4-WHELK 00100 2,40 10 2,4 1. 2..4 0,0 2. 1. 24(0 2,4:0 '~ 02.02 00 .0 50. 4.TRUCK 4.30 1. 6.3 3.0 14.0 3. 040 3.0 14.4 3,) I4, 41,4 50.8 12 500 4.

lE 0 I0.0 1.8 .5 4.4 4.0 3.0 4. 3.0 45 4,0 4. 1I, 54.0 005.0 10.441NT, 0044480204 40011 (ANNUAL 040,2 OU 04.4 400 303. 33.0 40.0 48, 55.0 550 54.0 54.4 200.0 00.0 105.0 00.0 105.0

0S.8 TOTAK 24.0 62,4 72.4 84.4 43.4 324.0 50.1 10203 00.0 170.3

T0TAL - 440012. 440440E6 44.2 1644,0 143,1 190,4 003,4 412.9 00.3 411.3 50.3 411.3

COMMERCIALK 4E8410E0 DEPTS8AL4S AND CR0010 UJNIT

CAR1.4 0.0I 1.4 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.4 2.0 3,4 2.0 3,4 14.2 40.0 4.1 50.0 4,PICK UP 1.,500 10 1. 3,0 4. 30 4.5 3.01 4.5 3,0 4.5 14.5 50.0 00.0 50.0 10,4

VEHICKE UR4PAI 080411 2.20 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.0 2.2 0.0 2,1 10.5 50.0 2,0 50.0 7.4L4B4004TION T3U0CK 2.2 2,0 5.4 4.0 0.0. 4.0 00.4 4.4 10.4 4.0 00. 44.4 50.0 24.0 00.0 24.3MOTOIICO"LE. 0.1 A4. 1. 1.4 I,0 4,0 1. 4,90 1.1 4.0 0. 0.5 50,0 3.0 50.0 30.0840008S 2.30 OU. 0 23.0 20.0D 44,.4 28.0 44.0 2011. 46,0 20.01 44.0 20.0 50.0 000, 50.0 103,.50ULLOOZERS 4.20 1.0 4.2 2. 04,64 2.0 4,64 2, 10.4 2.0 04,4 7.4 500 34.4 00 3,

CROP PROTECTION 4400PIC, UP 050 , 0.4. . . . ,0 05 00 15 25 5. AU 08.0 4.8

F'RS104 0N 00 040 T 0.4RI1.0 0,4 1. 1. 00 0. 00 S, 4. 50.0 4.5 50. 4.5TRAIT00 2.30 - 2.0 4.4 , , 2,0 4.6 2.0 4.4 14,4 50.0 9,2 50.0 4.0

000AL - 00M4E0014L 4E0V00ES 42.0 93.0 43.0 43.0 04.0 400.0 50.2 010.5 50,2 210.5

ENOINEORINOI 0403'

0411EE 0.V 240 4.0 42, 2.0 02. 2.S24 , 24 ,0 1 2, 024 480 24, 50. 04.4-44 08la.4 20 4. . . . 4.0 2.8 4,4 2,0 .4 6 2.4 40,0 12.0 5~0. 101

01048 OKANT A EOJIP. 1.00 OR, 140.4 304.4 384.4 35.127' 324.'7 244.2. 240.5 19 9 145 0,4,42 00 47. 54 5271.01

T0TAL - ENUINEERINO DEFT 00-2.4e 302.0 342.1 204.4 200,0 1,350,5 54,7 74,,4. 45.3 401,49

00414140 DEPTCAR 1.0 1Bo, -004 10 , . 04 00 0, , 00 4.5 s 40. 454-WHEEL DRIVE 2.40 0.0 2. 4 (. 2,4 1.0 2.4I 1.0 24 00 24 12. 40. 40 50.4 600

30 O44 00 .0- . , 1.4 0, 0.0 0. 1.0 B, . 50.0 3.6 50.4 3.6

44301K10.CI0E 4.12 0.0 0.U 2, 0 .2 2.11 0.2 2.40 0,2 2.0 4,7 0.4 50,0 0.5 50. 4,5

0014KE - 044111040 DE1'T 4,3 4, 42 4, 42 20.0 4~0,2 14,0 50.0 04.

040 1.4 ,1 ,6 200 2.2.0 1,0, 2.4 2.0 2.0 2N 00. 50.0 0.0 90.0 4,04-44EE- 4R1120 20 1, 2. 0,24 "I1,0 2'.4I 1,V 1.4 0,0 1) 2,4 622 5, -1, 00.0 4,0El0104070004 _.2 2, . 02 ., 14 24 20.,, <4 24,0 24 022 ,,Q 40 0, 0.

0811 1,00 1.o .0 1.0 (.11 1.0 1.4 1,0 '.0 1.0 0.l( 0,0 50.0 0.5 50,0 4,5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 6o 5.0 6

4-110I I KO .4U. 24 10 , 0 2,4 1. 2, 0. . 220 50.0 4, 40.0 4.

0OTOkCYC0-ES 0. (2 5 .4 0.4 .0 4,6 2.01 0,0 7, 0 (.11 2,0 0.3 2.6 50.4 .0 500 0,

T01AL - MONITORING 1 0('1 , 102 04.0 04l.4 04,9 04,4 22.4 50.3 311.0 504, S4,

KESS! PRE-000E2,009C1N1 00410S 2.. 0,1 50.4 50,.0 (0.0" , 2154.0 - -40, 254.0

GUIANO. 201AL 440,2 240.0 /00.4 23, 115.4-i~ ~ . 54 02000,0'1 40,2 I ,3011.3

KLKK5440 200. I0 44, 333 ( 46 1100 204 . -EO OElRN 08040041 COST'i 16. 4. 314 31.0 (1> .0

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I

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A1;=Z; 2

-61 - ~~~~~~~Table 9- 61 - Yb1e

NIGERIA

.NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

SCHEDULE OF BUILDING UNIT COSTS

Dnit Naira/m2 m2/House Unit Cost Furniture 2/ Total Cost

Housing 1/

Senior Staff Houses m2 200 215 43,000 7,000 50,000

Intermediate Staff Houses m2 180 195 35,000 5,000 40,000

Junior Staff Houses m2 150 145 21,800 3,200 25,000

Traditional Houses m2 100 60 6,000 - 6,000

Buildings

Office Building (Headquarter) m2 150 1,860 270,000 40,500 310,500

Workshop m2 110 450 49,500 7,500 57,000Central Store and Office m2 110 250 27,500 4,100 31,600Fuel Depot - - 5,000 - 5,000Parking m2 4 - 600 - 600

Access Roads and Drive Inns km - 10,000 - 10,000

Electrical Supply - - - 6,000 - 6,000

Sewage (SEPTIC TANK) No 100 3 300 - 300Landscaping ha 150 2 300 - 300Fencing m 10 750 7,500 - 7,500Water Supply - - - 4,000 - 4,000

Recreational Facilities (lump sum) - - 30,000 - 30,000

Guest House m2 200 200 40,000 6,000 46,000Design and Lay-out 3. -- - 13,500 - 13,500

Subtotal (Headquarter) 522,300

Farm Service Centers

Store m2 110 200 22,000 - 22,000Office and Chemical Store m2 110 40 4,400 300 4,700Lean-to m2 45 30 1,350 - 1,350Security Fence m 10 180 1,800 - 1,800Design and Lay-out 3.5% - - - 850 - 850

Subtotal 30,700

Area Development Centers

Store m2 110 400 44,000 - 44,000Office m2 110 75 8,250 650 8,900Security Fence m 10 230 2,300 - 2,300Electrical Supply - - - 2,500 - 2,500

Sewage (SEPTIC TANK) No _ 1 300 - 300

Water Supply - - - 3,000 - 3,000

Design and Lay-out 3.5% - - - 2,100 - 2,100

Subtotal 63,100

1/ Staff housing allocated on Government level grades

as follows: Senior staff housin% for GL II and above,Intermediate for grades GL 08 - 1IJunior for GL 06 and 07Low cost housing allocated to field staff of lower grades as required.

2/ Furnishing estimated at 15% of building cost.

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- 62 -

NIGERIA ANNEX 2Table 10

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Detailed Financing Plan - By Expense Category

(N'000)

Categories of Proposed Bank Loan

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total N'OOO US$'000 Per Disbursement Schedule

Buildings and Houses (incl.Roads & Equipment)

IBRD 985 1,352 710 269 34 3,350 3,350 5,159 4,300

PMG 595 818 426 158 16 2,013NSG 933 1,285 671 249 25 3,163

Subtotal 2,513 3,455 1,807 676 75 8,526

Vehicles, Equipment &Spare parts

IBRD 2,100 919 108 564 528 4,219 4,219 6,497 6,000

FMG 184 80 10 49 46 369

NSG 290 125 15 78 72 580

Subtotal 2,574 1,124 133 691 646 5,168

Irrigation Schemes

IBRD 174 230 477 270 101 1,252 1,252 1,928 1,300

FMG 204 268 558 314 117 1,461

NSG 320 421 876 494 185 2,296

Subtotal 698 919 1,911 1,078 403 5,009

International staff &consultants

IBRD 546 633 672 681 539 3,071 3,071 4,729 4,700

Local salaries andwages

PMG 414 650 843 943 1,044 3,RQ4

NSG 650 1,021 1,323 1,482 1,641 6,117

Subtotal 1,064 1,671 2,166 2,425 2,685 10,011

Operating costs

FMG 198 387 464 502 541 2,092

NSG 312 608 728 789 850 3,287

Subtotal 510 995 1,192 1,291 1,391 5,379

Medium term loans

FMG 58 82 93 34 22 289

NSG 91 129 146 54 34 454

Subtotal 149 211 239 88 56 743

Incremental Farm Inputs

IBRD 333 446 694 746 831 3,050 3,050 4,697 4,400

FMG 38 50 77 84 93 342

NSG 60 79 122 131 146 538

Subtotal 431 575 893 961 1,070 3,930

Unallocated 2,300

TOTAL 8,485 9,583 9,013 7,891 6,865 41,837 14,942 23,010 23,000

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- 63 ^

ANNEYX 2Table 11

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Disbursement Schedule

CumulativeUS$ US$

- - O t OQO …___

FY 80 - First Half 500.0 500.0Second Half 1,500.0 2,000.0

FY 81 - First Half 3,000.0 5,000.0Second Half 3,500.0 8,500.0

FY 82 - First Half 3,000.0 11,500.0Second Half 2,600.0 14,100.0

FY 83 - First Half 2,200.0 16,300.0Second Half 2,000.0 18,300.0

FY 84 - First Half 2,000.0 20,300.0Second Half 1,700.0 22,000.0

FY 85 - First Half 1,000.0 23,000.0

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Illustrative Cash Flow - Niger State Government(V'I00)

Year 21Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 20 onward

CASH INFLOW

IBRD Loan 1,300 4,220 3,636 2,727 2,403 649FMG Subvention 1/ 2,120 2,395 2,255 1,970 1,715

Subtotal 3,420 6,615 5,891 4,697 4,118 649

LOAN REPAYMENT

Water charges 2/ 33 72 106 124 136 136 136 136 136 136 136Medium term loans 3/ 14 34 203 276 309 285 292Input repayment 170 578 1,183 1,927 2,885 2,885 2,885 2,885 2,885 2,885 2,885 2,885FMG Fertilizer Subsidy 277 527 994 1,526 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022 2,022

Subtotal 447 L,152 2,283 3,764 5,307 5,352 5,328 5,335 5,043 5,043 5,043 5,043Total inflow 3,867 7,767 8,174 8,461 9,425 6,001 5,328 5,335 5,043 5,043 5,043 5,043

CASH OUTFLOW

Project Costs 4/ 8,339 9,859 9,971 10,152 10,423 8,033 7,813 7,427 7,026 6,657 6,657 6,657Medium term cash loans (total) 149 211 239 237 267

Debt Service IBRD Loan 5/Commitment fee 107 86 57 33 14 3Interest 46 239 514 736 916 1,011 941 871 801 732 34Principal 996 996 996 996 996 991

Total outflow 8,641 10,395 10,781 11,158 11,620 10,043 9,750 9,294 8,823 8,385 7,682 6,657

Net Cash Flow (Deficit) (4,774) (2,628) (2,607) (2,697) (2,195) (4,042) (4,422) (3,959) (3,780) (3,342) (2,639) (1,614)

Cumulative Cash Flow (4,774) (7,402) (10,009) (12,706) (14,901))(18,943) (23,365) (27,324) (31,104) (34,446)

Existirg Expenditures 6/ (343) (391) (447) (512) (585) (585) (585) (585) (585) (585)

Annual State Financing (5,117) (3,019) (3,054) (3,209) (2,780) (4,627) (5,007)

1/ 25% of project costs rounded.2/ Terms: average NIO per ha for informal, N40 for formal schemes (including N20 for maintenance).3/ At 97. for 3 years.4/ Includes contingencies, and total input purchases incremental to Year 0 use; excluding medium term cash loans.5/ Terms: 20 years; grace period of 5 years on repayment of principal. Interest at 7.0h on disbursed and outstanding portion.

Commitment fee of 3/4 of 1% on undisbureed portion.6/ All costs and net cash flow calculated on incremental basis, but State is, in addition, committed to maintain real level of

existing expenditures on agricultural development in project area (includes contingencies).

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- 65 -

ANNEX 3Table 1

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPNENT PROJECT

Financial and Economic Prices (Domestic Retail) 1/(Naira)

Cowpeas Bambara iYams Cassava----------------------metric tons----------------

Value at Bida 2/ 400.0 300.0 200.0 71.0 3/

Local Costs 4/ :24.0 18.0 12.0 5.0

Traders' Margin 5/ 36.0 27.0 18.0 6.0

Financial Farmgate 340.0 255.0 170.0 60.0

Economic Farmgate 6/ 360.0 270.0 180.0 64.0

Government Guaranteed 7/ 180.0 120.0 110.0 (gari)

1/ Projected 1985 prices (in 1978 constant terms) based on domestic retail prices.

_/ Average of six months post harvest retail price.

3/ Unprocessed cassava tubers valued at 25% of the average GARI price.

4/ About 6% of retail price.

5/ About 9% of retail price.

6/ Excludes traders'profit etc, estimated at 1/3 of local costs and traders' margin.

7/ '77 - '78 season.

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ANNEX 3NIGCERIA Table 2

NIGR STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOP1ENT PROJECT

Estimated FimncLal and Economic Price(Impat hpt Parity Etlstaa)

Pinancial EconomicRice aise Sorhum Groundnuts Cotton Rice Maize Sorshum Groundnuts Cotton

…P________________________________________------Per ton -----------------------------------------------CIF/FOB Value 1/ U5$ 337.0 139.0 129.0 496.0 1,750.0

Shipping etc. 2/ US$ + 60.0 + 50.0 + 50.0 + 50.0 - 100.0

W0B Laps _/ US$ - - - 1,650.0

CIF Lagos US$ 397.0 189.0 179.0 546.0 -

FOB Lagos N _ - - - 1,072,0 - - 1,337.0

CIF Lagos 3/ N * 258.0 123.0 116.0 355.0 - 322.0 153.0 145.0 442.0 -

Import Duty 4/ N 6.0 4.0 4.0 - - - - - -

Export Duty 5/N - - - - 161.0 -- - - -

Subtotal N 264.0 127.0 120.0 355.0 1,233.0 322.0 153.0 145.0 442.0 1,337,0

Transport to/from Lagos Port N i&/ + 50.0 + 50.0 + 50.0 (+) 50.0 (Q) 75.0 + 33.0 + 33.0 + 33.0 )33.0 50.0

Value at Bida N 314.0 177.0 170.0 405.0 1,158.0 355.0 186.0 178.0 475.0 1,287.0

Unprocessed equivalent 6/N 204.0 - - 284.0 417.0 231.0 - ' 333.0 463.0

LBA Allowances N - - - (-) 21.0 (-) 22.0 - - 14.0 15.0

Processing Costs 7/ N (-) 30.0 (-) 6.0 (-) 6.0 (-) 22.0 (-) 60.0 20.0 4.0 4.0 15.0 40.0

Local Costs 6/ N F) 12.0 (-)11.0 () 10.0 F) 11.0 (-) 16.0 (-) 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 11.0

Traders' Margin 9/N (-) 19.0 (-)16.0 (-) 15.0 - - (-) 13.0 11.0 9.0

Value of by Product 10/ N + 16.0 - - + 80.0 + 16.0 - - - 131.0

Farmgate Price N 159.0 144,0 139..0 230.0 399.0 206.0 164.0 158,0 .296.0. 528.0

Government Statutory: minimr 11/N' 240.0 130.0 110.0 _275.O 308.0 - - -

Market Price 12/ N 250.0 248.0 275.0 384.0 -

1/ Based o4n IBRD projections for 1985 in 1978 constant terms. Rice FOB Bangkok Thai milled 57. broken(US$4211/rft),lesa 20%; maize US No 2 Yellow FOB Gulf ports (US$139/nt); sorghum us No 2 nilo YellowFOB Gulf ports (US$121/mt); groundnuts CIF Europe (US$496/mt) and cotton mexican am 1-1/6' CIFEurope (US$1,581/rt).

2/ Mission estimates;, includes freight, insurance.3' Financial prices in Naira estimated at official exchange rate N I = US$1.54; economic value'

based on N 1 = US$1.23.4/ 107. bon rice, 57. on maize and 4% on sorgh.m.5/ 15% on cotton, none on groundnuta.6/ value of paddy estimated at 65% of rice value, unshelled groundnuts at 70% of shelled value and

ginned seed cotton outturn at 36%.7/ Parboiling,milling for rice and drying coats for maize and sorghum.8/ Includes local transportation to market and ahort-term storsge costs.

Assumed to be 6% of market value.9/ Assumed at 9% of market value.10/ Bran from rice and seed from cotton.11/ for 1977/78 season.12/ Mission estimates.13/ Two third LBA allowances, processing costs, local costs and traders' margins considered as economic costs.14/ Includes port-handling.

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- 67- ANNEX 3

NIGERIA Table 3

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budget 1 ha Rice

No Water Control Improved AdvancedPre-Project Project _re-Project Project Pre-Pro_jct Protect

Seed 1/ 9.0 14.0 12.0 14.0 14.0 14.0Seed Dressing 2/ - 0.1 - 0.1 - 1.0CAN 3/ 0.4 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 8.0Compounds 4/ - 2.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 6.0Insecticide 5/ - - - - - 2.4Fungicide 6/ - - - - - 9.2Herbicide 7/ - - - 7.8 - 7.8Mechanization 8/ - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5Chemical Application 9/ - - - 5.0 - 15.0Water Charges 10/ - - - 10.1 - 40.1Miscellaneous 11/ 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.0

Subtotal 10.4 19.1 22.5 55.5 30.5 113.0

Labor 12/ 264.0 372.0 300.0 348.0 360.0 276.0

Total Costs 274.4 391.1 322.5 403.5 390.5 389.0

Crop Income 13/ 180.0 384.0 384.0 600.0 528.0 840.0Income to Family Labor 264.0 264.0 264.0 264.0 264.0 264.0

Gross Income 444.0 648.0 648.0 864.0 792.0 1,104.0

Net Income 169.6 256.9 325.5 460.5 401.5 715.0

Net Per Manday 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.2 3.7 6.5

1/ Pre-project uncontrolled rainfed farmers use local seed (25 kg/ha); under project theywould use dressed FARO 18 (40 kg/ha); (b) pre-project improved farms in the informalschemes use undressed improved seed (30 kg/ha); under project improved farms; use 40 kgdressed FARO 15 or FARO 23; (c) pre-project advanced farmers in the formal schemes useundressed improved seeds(40 kg/ha); under project dressed FARO 15 or FARO 18 (40 kg/ha).

2/ Agrosam 5W at 0.9 kg per ton of seed, Price N 1250 per ton.3/ Subsidized price N 40/ton. Economic price estimated N 188/ton.4/ Subsidized price N 40/ton. Economic price N 237/ton.5/ Gammalen 20 (1.2 liter/ha) protection against stem-borers; full economic price

N 1.2/liter) charged.6/ Blasticidin (3.8 kg/ha) for control of blast and brown spot; full economic price

N 9.4/kg) charged.7/ Butylate (3.2 kg a.i./ha) as a pre-planting herbicide; full price (N 2.4/kg a.i.)charged.8/ Subsidized prices: ploughing and harrowing N 8.50/ha.9/ Charged by project at N 5/applications.10/ N 10 on informal schemes and N 40 on formal schemes.11/ To cover depreciation and replaement of tools.12/ Wage rate N 2.4 per manday. Total available family labor for rice 110 mandays; additional

requirements hired.13/ At Government minimum price of N 240/ton.14/ See Annex 3, Table 1 for full agronomic recommendations and Annex 1, Table 3 for per

hectare yield assumptions.

Page 82: No. 1912-UNI NIGERIA NIGER STATEdocuments.worldbank.org/curated/pt/350771468292285109/pdf/multi-page.pdfpenditure, i.e., infrastructure, education and large scale manufacturing, and

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budgets

(per ha)

Subsidized Prices (N) Unsubsidized Prices (M)Unit Traditional Improved Iyr.vd Unit Cost Traditional Improved ImprBved Unit Cost Traditional Improved Improved

Al 812/ A N A BSorghum

1. Costs: Seed 3/ kg 7.00 12.00 12.00 0.35 2.45 4.20 4.20 0.35 2.45 4.20 4.20Seed Dressing 4/ kg - 0.06 0.06 1.20 - 0.07 0.07 2.00 - .0.12 0.12CAN 5/ kg - 100.00 100.00 0.03 - 3.00 3.00 0.16 - 15.80 15.80Compounds 6/ kg - 50.00 50.00 0.03 - 1.50 1.50 0.21 - 10.35 10.35Herbicide 7t kg/si - - 0.80 5.75 - - 4.60 5.75 - - 4.60Chemical Application 8/ ha/op - - 1.00 5.00 - - 5.00 5.00 - - 5.00Mechanization 9/ ha - - 1.00. 11.38 - - 11.38 17.50 - - 17.50Tools 10/ ha 1.00 1,00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00

Subtotal - - - - 3.45 9.77 30.75 - 3.45 31.47 58.57

Labour 11/ manday 55,00 80.00 55.00 2.40 132.00 192.00 13^.ZZ 2.40 132.00 192.00 132.00

TOTAL COSTS - - - 135.45 201.77 162.75 135.45 223.47 190.57 o

2. Yield 12/ m.tons 0,60 1.20 1.20 234.00 140.40 280.80 280.80 - 140.40 280.80 280.80

3. Returns Net with Labour - - - 4.95 79.03 118.05 - 4.95 57.33 90.23Net without Labour - - - - 136.95 271.03 250.05 - 136.95 249.33 222.23

Gross per manday - - - 2.55 3.51 5.11 - 2.55 3.51 5.11Net per manday - - - 2.49 3.39 4.55 - 2.49 3.12 4.04

I/ Use of improved techniques but with hand labour. H 9i2/ Use of improved techniques including some mechanization. uo z3/ Traditional farmers use local seed, improved farmers use improved long straw long duration varieties >:

e.g., Fars-Fara and F241 valued at 507 above market price.4/ Five grams of Aldrex or equivalent per 1 kg of seed.5/ Applied as a top dressing.6/ Applied at planting time. Compound of 20(N)20 (P 0 ) 0(X 0).7/ Atrozine 80. Propazine could be an alternative on improved varieties.8/ Application and incorporation of preplanting herbicides. The charge of N 5.00 per hectare to cover

application costs per operation in full.9/ Ploughing (N 6.18 per ha) and ridging (N 5.20 per ha). These charges are 657. of actual costs of an

efficient service.10/ Nominal sum for depreciation and replacement.l1/ Labour requirements include filling grain stores, but exclude threshing.12/ Valued at post harvest market price (N 275 per m.ton) less local market traders margin (N 41.00 per m.ton).

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Cro Bud ets(per hectare)

Subsidized Prices (N) Subsidized Prices (N)Unit Traditional Improved Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved Improved

A B 2/ A B A 8MAIZE

1. Costs: Seed 31 kg 12.00 20.00 20.00 0.32 3.84 6.40 6.40 0.32 3.84 6.40 6.40Seed Dressing 4/ kg - 0.10 0.10 1.20 - 0.12 0.12 2.00 - 0.20 0.20C. A. N.5/ kg - 100.00 100.0 0.03 - 3.00 3.00 0.16 - 16.00 16.00Compound 6/ kg - 50.00 50.00 0.03 - 1.50 1.50 0.21 - 10.50 10.50Herbicides 7/ kg - - 1.00 5.75 - - 5.75 5.75 - - 5.75Chemical application 8/ ha - - 1.00 5.00 - - 5.00 5.00 - - 5.00Mechanization 9/ ha/op - - 1.00 11.38 - - 11.38 17.50 - - 17.50Storage Protection 10/ kg/ton - 2.50 2.50 1.30 - 3.25 3.25 2.30 - 5.75 5.75Drying Facilities 11/ m3 - 3.00 3.00 6.67 - 20.00 20.00 6.67 - 20.00 20.00Tools 12/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - - 4.84 35.27 57.40 - 4.84 59.85 88.10

0.Labor 13/ manday 60.00 85.00 50.00 2.40 144.00 204.00 120.00 2.40 144.00 204.00 120.00 D

TOTAL COSTS _ _ _ _ 148.84 239.27 177.40 - 148.84 263.85 208.10

2. Yield 141 m.ton 0.60 1.50 1.50 211.00 126.60 316.50 316.50 211.00 126.60 316.50 316.50

3. Returns: Net with labor - - - - (22.24) 77.23 139.10 - (22.24) 52.65 108.40Net without labor - - - - 121.76 281.23 259.10 - 121.76 256.65 228.40

Gross per Manday - - - - 2.11 3.72 6.33 - 2.11 3.72 6.33Net per Manday - - - - 2.03 3.31 5.18 - 2.03 3.02 4.57

1/ Use of improved techniques but with hand labor.2/ Use of improved techniques with the aid of mechanized preparations. a3/ Traditional farmers use local seed. Improved farmers use NCA or NCB. All seeds costed at 50% above market value. (4/ Aldrex T at 5 grms per kg of seed.5/ Top dressed.6/ 20(N) 20(P 0) 10(K 0) applied at planting time.7/ Atrozine 80 or Alachlor pre-planting herbicide. Linuron to be used if groundnuts are to be planted later.8/ Application and incorporation of herbicides. 'ihe charge covers the application and incorporation costs in full.9/ Ploughing (N 6.18 per ha) and ridging (N 5.20 per ha). These charges are 65% of the actual costs of an effective service.

10/ 2.5 of Lindane, 0.5a. or gammalin per kg of on-cob maize.11/ Storage crib for wind drying at an estimated cost of N 20 per m3, coated over 3 years. Capacity of 0.5 m ton per m3.12/ Nominal amount to cover depreciation and replacement.13/ Labour includes filling of stores but not threshing or construction of storage cribs.14/ Valued at market estimates 3 months after harvesting when the crop is dry enough to market (at N 248 per ton) less

local market traders margin (N .37) traditional farmers are expected to sell their crops as green maize, In thisbudget all yields are expressed and valued as grain.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budgets(per hectare)

Subsidized Prices (N) Unsubsidized Prices (N)

Unit Traditional Improved Advanced Unit Cost Traditional ImProved Advanced Unit Cost Traditional Improved Advanced

Groundnuts

1. Costs: Seed 1/ kg 30.00 45.00 45.00 0.45 13.50 20.25 20.25 0.45 13.50 20.25 20.25Seed dressing 2/ ha - 1.00 1.00 0.13 - 0.13 0.13 0.18 - 0.18 0.18Single Superphosphate 3/ kg - 150.00 - 0.03 - 4.50 - 0.14 - 21.00 -

Compound 4/ kg - - 200.00 0.03 - - 6.00 0.21 - - 42.00Fungicides 5/ ha - - 1.00 9.16 - - 9.16 9.16 - - 9.16Herbicides 6/ ha - - 1.00 13.20 - - 13.20 13.12 - - 13.20Chemical Application 7/ ha/ap - - 2.00 5.00 - - 10.00 5.00 - - 10.00Tools 8/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - - 14.50 25.88 59.74 - 14.50 42.43 95.79

Labor 9/ manday 90.00 120.00 90.00 2.40 216.00 288.00 216.00 2.40 216.00 288.00 216.00

TOTAL COSTS - - - - 230.50 313.88 275.74 - 230.50 330.43 311.79 o

2. Yields 10/ m.tons 0.50 0.90 1.10 326.00 163.00 293.40 358.60 326.00 163.00 293.40 358.60

3. Returns: Net with labor - - - - (67.5Q) (20.50) 82.90 - (67.50) (37.00) ( 1.20)Net without labor - - - - 148.50 267.50 298.90 - 148.50 258.00 262.80

Gross per manday - - _ - 1.80 2.40 3.90 - 1.80 2.40 3.90Net per manday - - _ _ 1.70 2.20 3.30 - 1.70 2.10 2.90

1/ Traditional farmers use locally selected seeds. Improved or Advanced farmers plant M25/68 or 69/101.Valued at 50% more than market unshelled cost.

2/ Fernason 'D' or amonium molybdate mixed with Aldrex I at 300 grams per hectare.3/ Applied to the seedbed on improved farms.4/ A(N) 20(P 0 ) lO(K 0) applied to the seedbed on advanced farms. -m

/ T"hiram or Blastlcldiil S as a spray specifically against cercospora. m w6/ Trifluralin 48 as a pre-planting herbicide or 2 X

7/ Application of fungicides or herbicides. The charges cover the application costs in full.8/ Nominal sum for depreciation and replacement.9/ Figures include harvesting and shelling.

IO/ M,arket price (N 384.0) less 15%.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budgets(per hectare)

Subsidized Prices (N) Unsubsidized Prices (N)Unit Traditional Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved

Bambara Groundnut

1. Costs: Seed 1/ kg 25.00 50.00 0.47 11.75 23.50 0.47 11.75 93.50Seed Dressing 2/ ha - 1.00 0.13 - 0.13 0.18 - 0.18Single Superphosphate 3/ kg - 150.00 0.03 - 4.50 0.14 - 21.00Tools 4/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - 12.75 29.13 - 12.75 45.68

Labor 5/ manday 55.00 70.00 2.40 132.00 168.00 2.40 132.00 168.00

TOTAL COSTS - - - 144.75 197.13 - 144.75 713.68

2* Yield 6/ m.tons 0.40 0.80 255.0 102.00 204.00 255.00 102.00 204,00

3. Returns: Net with labor - - - (42.80) ( 6.90) - (42.80) ( 9.70)Net without labor _- - 89.30 174.90 - 89.30 158.30

Gross per manday - - - 1.90 2.90 - 1.90 2.90Net per manday - - - 1.60 2.50 - 1.60 2.30

1/ Local varieties valued at 50% above market prices.3/ Fernagon D tc control fungal diseases.3/ Applied to the seedbed.4/ N-minal sum to cover depreciation and replacement.5/ Includes shelling.6/ Estimated at 75% of cowpea pricesfN 340.0).

v

X X4n'

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budgets(per hectare)

Subsidized Unit Cost (N) Unsubsidized Unit Cost (N)Unit Traditional Advanced Unit Cost Traditional Advanced Unit Cost Traditional AdvancedCowpea

1 Costs Seed 1/ kg 10.00 25.00 0.64 6.40 16.00 0.64 6.40 16.00Single Superphosphate 2/kg - 50.00 0.03 - 1.50 0.14 - 7.00Insecticide 3/ It - 15.00 1.10 _ 16.50 2.25 - 33.75Chemical Application 4/ ha - 1.00 5.00 - 5.00 5.00 - 5.00Tools 5/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - 7.40 40.00 - 7.40 62.75

Labor manday 50.00 80.00 2.40 120.00 192.00 2.4 120.00 192.00

TOTAL COSTS - - - 127.40 232.00 - 127.40 254.75

2. Yield 6/ mi-tons 0.12 1.00 340.00 41.00 340.00 340.00 41.00 340.00 M

3. Returns Net with Labor - - - (86.40) 108.00 - (86.40) 85.30Net without Labor - - 33.60 300.00 - 33.60 277.30

Gross per manday - - - 0.82 4.30 - 0.82 4.30Net per manday - - - 0.70 3.80 - 0.70 3.50

1/ Traditional farmers use local varieties. Advanced farmers use 3/41, 1/80 or 76/60.2/ Applied to the seedbed.3/ Endosulphan applied 6 times with ULV equipment to control insect pests.4/ ULV application of insecticide. The charge covers all application costs in full.5/ Nominal sum to cover depreciation and replacement.6/ Valued at local post harvest market price (N 400) less local market traders margin (N 60).

H><

03 M

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTLURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

CroP Budgets(per hectare)

Number of Units 1/ 2/ Subsidized Costs (N) Unsubsidized Costs (N)YAMS Units Traditional Improved- Unit Cost Traditional Impraved Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved ImprovedA B A B A B1. COSTS Setts 3/ kg 1,500.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 0.122 183.00 366.00 366.00 0.122 183.00 366.00 366.00Seed dressing 4/ kg _ 15.00 15.00 1.00 - 15.00 15.00 2.00 - 30.00 30.00Compound 5/ kg 100.00 100.00 0.03 - 3.00 3.00 0,21 - 21.00 21.00Herbicide 6/ kg/ai - - 1.60 7.80 - - 7.80 7.80 - - 7.80Chemical application kg/op - - 1.00 5.00 - - 5.00 5.00 - - 5.00 .Tools 8/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001.

Sub-total - - - - - 184.00 385.00 396.80 - 184.00 418.00 430.80

Labor manday - 170.00 240.00 200.00 2.40 408.00 576.00 480.00 2.40 408.00 576.00 480.00

Total costs 9/ - - - - 592.00 961.00 876.80 - 592.00 994.00 910.80

2. YIELD 9/ m.tons 5.00 9.00 9.00 122.00 610.00 1,098.00 1,098.00 122.00 610.00 1,098.00 1,098.00

3. RETURNS Net with labor - - - - 18.00 137.00 221.20 - 18.00 104.00 187.20Net without labor - - 426.00 713.00 701.20 - 42.60 680.00 667.20

Gross per manday - - 3.59 4.58 5.49 - 3.59 4.58 5.49Net per manday - - 2.51 2.97 3.51 - 2.51 2.83 3.34

1/ Farmers using improved techniques with all hand weeding.2/ Farmers using improved techniques with additional use of herbicides to reduce weeding.3/ improved farmers use setts at 0.4kg per sett, i.e. almost double the weight of the traditional farmers setto.4/ Aldrin 2.5 applied to setts prior to planting.5/ 20(N)lO(P 2 0 5 )10(K20) applied prior to planting.6/ Linuron 507 at 1.6 kg ai per ha prior to planting, surface applied.7/ Costo cover the application of the herbicide in full.8/ Nominal cost to cover depreciation and replacement.9/ Valued at local post harvest price (N144) less the market traders margin (N22).

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- 74 -NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Budgets

(per hectare)Subsidized Prices (N) Unsubsidized Prices _2)

Unit Traditional Improved Unit Cost Traditional Improved Unit Cost Traditional ImprovedCassava

1. Costs Seed 1/ 1,000 6.50 10.00 1.00 6.50 10.00 1.00 6.50 10.00Compound 2/ kg - 100.00 0.03 - 3.00 0.21 - 21.00Tools 3/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - 7.50 14.00 - 7.50 32.00

Labor 4/ manday 90.00 130.00 2.40 216.00 312.00 2.40 216.00 312.00

TOTAL COSTS - - - 223.50 326.00 - 223.50 344.00

2. Yield 5/ m.tons 4.00 12.00 60.00 240.00 720.00 60.00 240.00 720.00

3. Returns Net with Labor - - - 16.50 394.00 - 16.50 376.00Net without Labor - - - 232.50 706.00 - 232.50 688.00

Gross per manday - - - 2.67 5.54 - 2.67 5.54Net per manday - - - 2.58 5.43 - 2,58 5.29

1/ Stem cuttings, costed at the labor rate for cutting. Improved farmersto use mosaic resistant varieties.

2/ 20(N) 20(P 0 ) 20(K O) applied before planting.3/ Nominal cost to cover depreciation and replacement.4/ Includes lifting and carting but not processing.5/ Unprocessed cassava tubers valued at 25% of the average GARI price.

less 15% processing traders margin.

axrD~ (,

O0

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop2 Budgets(p e-r bcare)

Subsidized Prices (N) Unsubsidized Prices (N)Unit TradJtional Advanced Advanced Unit Cost Traditional Advanced Advanced Unit Cost Traditional Advanced Advanced

A l/ B 2/ A B A BCotton

1. Costs: Seed 3/ kg 20.00 20.00 20.00 - - - - 0.06 1.20 1.20 1.20Boronated Compound 4/ kg - 100.00 100.00 0.03 - 3.0 3.0 0.21 - 21.00 21.00Inse'ticide 5/ litres - 15.00 15.00 1.1 - 16.50 16.50 2.25 - 33.75 33.75Herbicide 6/ ha - - 1.00 4.56 - - 4.56 4.56 - - 4.56Chemical Application 7/ ha/op - 1.00 2.00 5.00 - 5.00 10.00 5.00 5.00 10.00Mechanization 8/ ha - - 1.00 11.38 - - 11.38 17.50 - - 17.50Tools 9/ ha 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Subtotal - - - - 1.00 25.50 46.44 - 2.20 61.95 89.01

manday 50.00 95.00 75.00 2.40 120.00 228.00 180.00 2.40 120.00 228.00 180.00

Total Costs - - - - 121.00 253.50 226.44 - 122.20 289.95 269.01

2. Yield 10/ m.tons 0.30 0.90 0.90 308.00 92.40 277.20 277.20 308.00 92.40 277.20 277.20

3. Returns Net with labor - - - - (28.60) 23.70 50.76 - (29.80) (12.75) 8.19Net without labor - - - - 91.40 251.70 230.76 - 90.20 215.25 188.19

Gross per manday - - - - 1.85 2.92 3.70 - 1.85 2.92 3.70Net per manday - - - - 1.83 2.65 3.08 - 1.80 2.27 2.51

1/ Farmers using advanced techniques with all hand labor.2/ Farmers using advanced techniques plus mechanical preparation and herbicides.3/ Issued free to all farmers annually.4/ 20(N) 20(P 0 ) 10(K 0) plus 5 borax applied to the seedbed.5/ Endosulphan 25% ULV, six applications.6/ Diuron or Dinitramine 80% at 0.4 kg.ai/ha. Applied as a pre-planting herbicide.7/ The charge covers the application and/or incorporation of insecticides and herbicide.8/ Ploughing (N 6.18 per ha) and ridging (N 5.20 per ha). These charges are 65% of

actual costs of an effective service.9/ Nominal amount to cover depreciation and replacement.

10/ Government guarranteed minimum price.

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ANNEX 4Table 1

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economic Farm Input Costs

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

CAN 91 225 377 543 698

SSP 6 50 112 154 199

BSP - 9 18 36 54

Compound 92 230 398 581 756

Subtotal 189 514 905 1,314 1,707

Pre-project 80 so 80 80 80

Total incremental 109 434 825 1,234 1,627

Herbicides 8 22 45 65 91

Fungicides etc. 7 118 30 40 53

Insecticides 4 11 24 39 54

Subtotal 19 51 99 144 198

Seeds 126 318 580 871 1,220

Maize stores 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 5.0

Farm tools 24.0 36.0 60.0 84.0 100.0

Total farm inputs 278.0 840.0 1,566.0 2,337.0 3,150.0

Labour 284.0 813.0 1,459.0 2,207.0 3,031.0

Total on-farm. costs 562.0 1,653.0 3,025.0 4,544 6,181.0

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ANNEX 4Table 2

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economic Rate of Return Calculation

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10-20

Economic Costs 1/

DevelopmentSalaries l,Y70 1,420 1,570 1,620 1,470Vehicles & Equipments 2,050 750 91 300 300Building & Houses 1,900 2,000 700 250 -Irrieation Development 525 598 1,070 51B 168

Subtotal 5,645 4,768 3,431 2,688 1,938

Local Cost 2,771 2,877 2,466 1,820 1,278Foreign Exchange 2,874 1,891 965 868 660SER & Foreign Exchange 3,593 2,364 1,206 1,085 825

Subtotal 6,364 5,241 3,672 2,905 2,103

Recurrent Costs

Salaries 2/ - - - -- - 972 875 785 700 630Operating tosts 255 412 450 460 400 360 300 270 250 200Road Maintenance 100 200 200 200 200 - - - - -Vehicles & Equipments - - - - - 80 70 60 50 50

Subtotal 355 612 650 660 600 1,412 1,245 1,115 1,000 880

On Farm Costs

Farm Inputs 278 840 1,566 2,327 3,150 3,150 3,150 3.150 3,150 3,150Labor 284 813 1,459 2,207 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031 3,031

Subtotal 562 1,653 3,025 4,534 6,181 6,181 6,181 6,181 6,181 6,181

Total Base line 7,318 7,543 7,385 8,136 8,922 7,593 7,426 7,296 7,181 7,061

With 5% contingency 7.684 7.920 7.754 8,543 9,368 7,973 7,797 7,660 7,540 7,414

reonomic Renefits 527 2,610 4,912 7,915 11,444 11,547 11,608 11,608 11,608 11,608

1/ Incremental costs excludes investments and other costs on MEPU and 25% of training costs.2/ Year 6, 90% of local costs in Year 5; lOZ annual decrease until Year 10.

5/20/78.

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- 78 -

ANNEX 4Table 3

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economic Value of Incremental Farm Production 1/(N '000)

Naira/ha Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7-25

Sorghum 158 190 616 774 1,042 1,390 1,390 1,390

Paddy 206 247 824 1,545 2,328 2,905 3,008 3,069

Maize 164 - 66 377 771 1,213 1,213 1,213

Groundnuts 296 - 118 355 355 533 533 533

Bambara 270 - 54 54 162 270 270 270

Cowpea 360 36 36 144 288 504 504 504

Yam 180 54 378 900 1,494 2,448 2,448 2,448

Cassava 64 - 154 288 525 755 755 755

Cotton 528 - 264 475 950 1,426 1,426 1,426

Total 527 2,510 4,912 7,915 11,444 11,547 11,608

1/ See Annex 3, Tables 1 and 2 for economic farmgateprices and Annex 1, Table 3 for incremental production.

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NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Rate of Return for Formal and Informal Schemes(N '000)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Years 10-25Input Costs

CAN 27 83 128 154 17720-20-20 34 88 137 169 198Seeds 18 42 67 85 102Chemicals 15 29 44 47 45

Subtotal 94 242 376 455 522

Pre-development 50 50 50 50 50

Subtotal 44 192 326 405 472

On-farm labour 43 108 186 259 332

Total Farm Costs 87 300 512 664 804 804 804 804 804 804

Investment Costs 526 598 1,070 518 168 - - - - -

Operating Costs 130 178 200 215 230 180 160 116 90 90

Vehicles, Equipment, etc. 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Total 773 1,106 1,812 1,427 1,202 1,014 594 950 924 924

With 5% Physical contingency 811 1,611 1,902 1,498 1,262 1,065 1,043 997 970 970

Benefit 255 577 927 1,174 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400

ERR = 12%.

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- 80 -

ANNEX 5Page 1

NIGERIA

NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File

A. General Reports and Studies on the Sector/Sub-sector

Al Annual Reports of the Federal Department of AgriculturalResearch, 1973/74.

A2 Experimental Cropping Systems Improvement Program,Notes from 1977 cropping scheme meeting, IAR, Samaru.

A3 Soil Survey Bulletin No. 44, IAR, Samaru.

A4 Economic Evaluation of the Use of Herbicide on SelectedCrops at the Farmers' Level Under Hand and Oxen FarmingSystem, A. 0. Ogungbite (mimeograph).

A5 ULV Spraying for Cowpea in Northern Nigeria, SamaruResearch Bulletin 283, 1977.

A6 A Survey of Cotton Farms near Mokwa, Nigeria, SamaruResearch Bulletin 197, 1973.

A7 Influence of Plant Density and Nitrogen on Yield andMilling Quality of Lowland Rice in Nigeria; Fagade andOjo.

A8 Guidelines for Local Government Reform, Federal Republicof Nigeria, August 1976.

A9 Master Plan for Local Government Reforms, 1976, N.S.G.

B. Reports and Studies Relating to the Project

B1 Bida Agricultural Development Project Preparation Report(4 volumes) FAO/IBRD CP Program. Report No. 23/77 NIR 111977.

B2 Feasibility study of Smallholder Rice Projects in theNiger State, volumes I and II. FMARD, September 1977.

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ANNEX 5Page 2

C. Selected Working Papers, Tables drawings, etc. by IBRDAppraisal Mission

Cl Agriculture - Background

C2 Agricultural Potential

C3 Irrigation Development

C4 Civil Works

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_ 82 -

NIGERIANIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTPROJECT ORGANIZATION

FMARD ............------------- Ministry of............. Natural Resoures

ALMEPU LGC l f BPEC ~J.............. |strtJ

z | BPMU |- ~ B

Project Manager'sOffice

Administration Fiance

.MIPU 11111 ~~~~~~Training Cmeca sAgricultural ~ ~ neic~m

,nd:]_ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~1Stnallhold.rStaff Inpu~~~~t S. E ]E.gensionOa**J

Land Wse Sure FamesLreiandin Usvelomand Pl-nin'g' Fam,el, 4 Credit A De-~~~~~Lapnd Bs uildings

Cooweatiu-esp n Hir WarmkTrial

-[=S-a cas ~ ~ Mltplctin okio

Fi rotection riato

Cooperati elomnDeuslopment

LIne of Command MTICj ............... Aduitory I I

------- Tachni-aI Liaison

World Bank - 18603

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op5

. a. te IR~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1RD i37O8RI

N.. E R , v ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BRD Assisted Agricultural Projects

E.,asting, Appraised and Under Preparation

-j SOrtoTo KotsitO rtaoro reXe Agr,ccltcrol Developlnent~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ag,clt,.1 e-oprent ~~~~~~EXISTING

LeA. [oar. 454-UNeI;9' . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ay-ngb [no- 1455-UNI)

PF-t.. Loa 1092-UNIU)B 0 R N C) ~~~~~~~~~~~~Gaso Ioo 1099-UNI)

lea I f r~~~~~~~~~0 04 Goe1be (L-o 1164-UNI)

Eart AkekolOrdol, Gyn NorhVU7, ' T14 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~LZUNDER PREPAATO

I.q(' C-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~us Ente1-oKoauna Stat.

K... Stole

~~~ ~~~ ~Tr-i-g Projectj~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~APPRA SEDI t7 T ~~~~~Agr,-It-tl a-dR-

Manaemet Tte,n,rg rlnsttut

5 ilk~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ SOLO EA Tree Crop Projects-ES STING

AL '7 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L Z C.-oItlLo-rl64-UNI)'g CAPITA'L I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~E~CooIlLoI4SSI

ORII IV Or~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- Gdo Gil Polo Loon 1192-UNI)

y 8-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ede G.J Pen, JL-o 138-UNIl

Into G I Palm (Loo 1191-UNI)

tRste State Gd Palm (Loan 1525-UNI)MAKUR ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~APPRAISED.

A rA IV GgA ,t" U~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~NDER PREPARATION

Cros R-nt Estat

mIrgot-o Pro ect

,ees ,asea. seee.e aenoe~maoeemepeeEXISTING

TY ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Oeo i -omese-eeessce n e0 Ri-e Lhoan 1103-UNI)

E E L t t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ L-vetock Development ProjectM 0 ALG~~~~~~~~~~*555M~50 NOSERIA A ta ne oo 51UI

sagna G "P mo a EXISTING.

-. WK r7GtfF 5+ OSS. N1 GEe , 0 Not -na Li-etock Pnodan,on Co tRches,~

RC ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U Weste- Li-ntok Ce Ronche

eseose oes- COa l" 0 f S X A-. lPestat lne-s,g.t_o C eterGFem Reere- Plr Grac Ranhes

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IBRD 13265JANUARY 1978

NIGERIA-NIGER STATE

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTA TYPICAL SWAMP LAYOUT

Head Bund Sluice

SpillTa i (Sigl Bunding)l

-Main Drainage Canal

(Double Bunding)

Peripheral Spillway

Cross Drainage(Subsidiary)

Ridges ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pick-up Structure

Terra ce Pdy Plot(Ridges ollow Contours)

2WA W0>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~onor

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I BRD 1 3306R

5'00' 5°30' 6°00' N t GER: - _36

NIGERIA-10,00, 10,001-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ioo NIGERIA

BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

MAIN ROAD NETWORK AND PROPOSED AGRICULTURAL CENTERS rNer t~ '

To Kaduno

~~,G"B~~~~ A K;@ 0i '

To Kaduna ~~N I G E R S T A T E "

. \ . ffu,ibok~rvt: r ;i ; _lep,ncloo /oncr

/ , " \ rO A1linna 0: ; r S 'MA O

830 State Roads 30'

/> rO Aia/nji //- -Earth Road n'\ _ MINNA

M,s 0 10 2/ 30 4 A \B U J A 9030'-

t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t 6 ( Lemou. _;~

Tifi K~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ T oo

t \ 9 , < *°~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o L A V U N :Ebk genG,,4 BfKe,.eg

50 00' 50 00' 6~~~~~~~~~~~at 00

Raba Ku=igi U

A Areo Developnqent Centers + Landing Strip % 9 _ # Katcha: , J XD~~~Klog kut

--- Elorln anRaoas "pat *,... ,l Lcpc ,

*----UdrDsgno (191_ ---.. *,..

rprofeewY#enAi~~g Boot LU s K

5° 00' 5 30' 6- oog 6 30 l\ + Korif/'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~U

Project~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AUR Bonay97---Tak

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iBRD 113307

5° 00 5- 30 6- 00' - NGE R _

NIGERIA10°o BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 10Oc°- $ENN NIGERIA

PHYSICAL, GEOLOGICAL AND RAINFALL UN"Ni'A'

N I GE R STATE I

6 .' 30''

30

1,835 L Lower Niger TerracesI, \C. o

k ..-- Area Covered by Detaziled Soil Survey 0 X 4A,>

-S120'.. Contours, in Meters I9Br

,,,-.. l sohyets, in Millimeters . \

A Meteorological Stations XS.kh \j (

-a'30 @ State Capitol ,Ez <* nl ti\\ \ HJ 89301-

PrState Boundaries

9 i8O2Upp r 0 10 20 30 40 50r

M1leo 0 10 20 30 40 c

700' 5°a30' 6° C' 630

JANUARY 1978

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IBRD 13309

5.00' 5 30 6 00-

N IGERIA-10°00' BIDA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

PROJECT AREA N

To K dun afio Kadurza ~NI G ER STAT E - . AER N

1, u SURhtfA~~~5 05 M_intenot nl3Ldr

0 /. -2MEaREERL *51Ko5 X ina6' 303j>E: |. .;, g.'~~~~~~~~~~~~~.',......306 .-A.i 7: MINNA

S- ~~~~~~~~~~~/ .AGAIE(Q, s> ~AP

Local Cou*s _}< ' ) .A ncil Buae .UBANG L.;-A- 9;* 99, w ; GBANGBA /

/; > ~Mtlw gg5>]/4ZAjor Cattle**% * Rout e GU N1 ,;--

ID WI' G B A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ., ~At*Adfl.WAAAAAA~ A

CM,~~~~~~~~~~ _KV FAN~~~~~~~~~~JAURY17

t5 & 6;ggi s, M~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AN(J ITA B IDA, t )4//FA

< vt8DU>JAAGR -,>,T j_i8ML A ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5.72 BOKU' c LAPAl1 .) SO l/orin \<2S6 WGBSA;W ; J ,-.- DZi jA G! I I E!._(

. and iagos . - - . ^ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BARATSO {,DP LANZ,XEUG 9-0

KWARA STATE L APAI;A -C0, (SKO I ( EDOKSU\!LAPAI. r r

. < CL (/ ~~~~~~~~~~14 98 A<^\!/- !ivF

Project Boundary , Areas Considered to have had < , Proposed Sugar Estate G.Mainrsions Inetto MA SOJE/ ( PASHiAIM .

a6-0 Name I Area in square kfm. State Capital r-4$-J §A Irrigation Schemes - - Local Council Boundaries jR+,S°--_1

* Research Stations State Boundaries | S--+F UBANGI V0 Stock Control Posts 3 Rivers 6;1,4 .* <

.: Major Cattle Route N 4

-8- 30' | S^EOLAA i)-30'-

Kd ... t-S 0 10 20 30 40 50 X

MIIe5 0 10~I 2'0 j0I0 >

S- 00' 5- 30' 6- 00' 6 30' AJAN UAR Y 19774