[NMDS] Anders Lykke | Priori Data
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Transcript of [NMDS] Anders Lykke | Priori Data
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NMDS, November 7th, 2013
APP STORES- ANALYTICS AND TRENDS
@anders_lykke / @prioridata
WWW.PRIORIDATA.COM
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AGENDA
ABOUT APP STORE ANALYTICS Who am I? Who is Priori Data? What is App Store Analytics? App Economy – Size, Growth and Characteristics The Challenge App Architecture – breaking the app store down to relevant
markets Case-Study: Sudoku Games Invitation to participate in BETA
APPENDIX Fastest Growing Consumer Trends in the App Stores
Globally For Sweden
Size of the Scandinavian App Markets
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WHO AM I?Anders, Sales and a lot of other stuff…
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APPS MAKE MY LIFE EASIER
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Consumers download apps to solve problems and/or to enrich their lives
We are monitoring consumer trends in the app economy
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WHAT IS PRIORI DATA?
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Priori is a Berlin based app store analytics provider
Formally launched in June 2013 by acquiring the rights to a historical database and on-going data feed
Access to ~80% of all global apps, as well as 2.5 years of historical data
We leverage this data in two ways: We publish a series of Market
Intelligence Reports (pdf – most are free) Do consulting work on Custom Data Projects
ABOUT PRIORI
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SOME BIG PLAYERS IN THE INUSTRY
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WHAT IS APP STORE ANALYTICS?
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Collection
Structuring &
Processing
Enrichment
Delivery
We retrieve and store publicly
available information
We estimate download and
revenue for every app (regression
model + data exchange with
developers)
We convert this data into
information and insights on
consumer trends
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OUR PROCESS
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MONITORINGMEASURING
Maintaining app information for:
2,000,000+ appsevery app, every price change, every version
250,000 publishersfrom hobby developers to public
companies
100,000 new apps per month
6bn downloads per month
15mm user comments per month
30 countrieslocal content, local monetization, local leaders
3 platformsGoogle Play, iOS (iPhone, iPad),
Windows Phone
50 categories
550 app sub-categories
120 game sub-categories
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OUR DATABASE
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APP ECONOMY SIZE AND GROWTH
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The App Store:
258.081 publishers (about 7k new each month)
3.8 apps per publisher on avg.
7.171 downloads/month per publisher on avg.
Google Play:
269.803 publishers (about 11k new each month)
3.7 apps per publisher on avg.
13.574 downloads/month per publisher on avg.
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PUBLISHER LEVEL INFORMATION (as of Oct. 8th)
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Ca. 1 million apps (on both GP and iOS) iOS: 600k free / 400k paid ($332.5m revenue/month) Android: 800k free / 200k paid ($32m revenue/month)
In-app purchase is a growing trend on both platforms: On iOS 11% of apps have in-app purchase (IAP present
in 60% of downloaded apps in September) On GP: 5.2% of apps have in-app purchase (IAP present
in 28% of downloaded apps in September)
…4bn vs 2bn downloads per month
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NUMBER OF APPS AND MONETIZATION
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
$bn total rev.$bn rev IAP
Source: Gartner, 2013
$80 BN APP STORE REVENUE BY 2017
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It is young
It is growing at unprecedented speed
2 very dominant distribution platforms (Gartner says 90% of downloads this year)
Difficult to obtain information on the market
Everybody wants in
KEY OBSERVATIONS ON THE APP ECONOMY
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THE CHALLENGE
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There is an app for everything but only around 40 native app store categories for developers to place their app in and for consumers to browse
Each native app store category is crowded with highly differentiated apps
We think there is a real opportunity to make smarter decisions if you can identify the actual market of an individual app.
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APP ARCHITECTURE & SUB-CATEGORIES
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AppArchitecture is Priori’s proprietary app taxonomy, or classification system
We mine app titles and descriptions to identify “clusters” of apps using natural language processing algorithms
This process is done dynamically each month across our database, and supplemented by manual review
The end result: a “sub-category” designation for ~90% of the apps in our database
WHAT IT IS
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35-40 Categories 750 Sub-Categories
Thus a Sudoku Game is no longer just an app belonging to the the Puzzle Games Category (iOS). It can now be analyzed against all other apps in the ”Sudoku & Crosswords” Sub-Category . 24
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FALL 2013 – article by Priori
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A Tool: Sub-Category Tracker
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Priori Sub-Category Tracker
Sudoku & Crossword Puzzle Sub-CategoryApple iTunes Store / August 2013(Data Collection 09 Aug. – 09 Sep. 2013)
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Sudoku & Crossword Puzzle apps are logic-based puzzle games, largely belonging to the iTunes store native category “Puzzle Games”.
Sudoku & Crossword Puzzle is the 56th largest Priori sub-category in terms of global August 2013 downloads, the 151th largest in terms of apps, 73rd in terms of active users and 178th in terms of publishers. It is comprised of:
1,676 apps964 publishers7.8M monthly downloads39M active users
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We want to know more about the performance, opportunities, and competitive landscape in this sub-category. For instance:
Trend: How has this sub-category performed in the near-term?
Size: How big is it across geographies?
Growth: How fast is it growing across geographies?
Structure: What does the market structure look like across geographies?
Top 3: Who are the top players in each geography?
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MONTH OVER MONTH GROWTH COMPARISON:Sudoku & Crosswords VS Puzzle Games VS iOS
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31Global Performance
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
June July August
25%
50%
0%
-25% -25.5%
0.1%
3.3%
25.9%
12.1%
6.0%
46.6%
7.8%
-25.4%
GLOBAL MONTH-OVER-MONTH GROWTH COMPARISON
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SHARE OF DOWNLOADS BY COUNTRYIs the Market large enough to Enter?
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Current Month Downloads in Country /Global Current Month Downloads
Size and Growth By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Share of Downloads by Country
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Current Month Downloads in Country /Global Current Month Downloads
Size and Growth By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Share of Sub-Category by Country
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MONTH OVER MONTH GROWTH BY COUNTRY- Are the Market Dynamics in my Favor?
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(Current Month Downloads – Prior Month Downloads) /
Prior Month Downloads
Size and Growth By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Growth by Country
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(Current Month Downloads – Prior Month Downloads) /
Prior Month Downloads
Size and Growth By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Growth by Country
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DOWNLOAD DISTRUBUTION – TIERS 1-3How many Installs can I expect?
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39Market Structure By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Download Distribution
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40Market Structure By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Download Distribution
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Tier Apps #1 - #3 Apps #4 - #10 Apps #11 - #25
Russia
% of Downloads 81% 8% 6%Avg. Downloads
Per App 116,326 5,900 1,628
South Korea
% of Downloads 91% 6% 2%Avg. Downloads
Per App 64,539 2,243 297
Spain
% of Downloads 79% 11% 7%Avg. Downloads
Per App 83,237 5,616 1,580
Sweden% of Downloads 56% 22% 17%Avg. Downloads
Per App
13,030
2,544
783
Switzerland
% of Downloads 52% 25% 19%Avg. Downloads
Per App 14,139 3,417 1,039
United Arab Emirates
% of Downloads 60% 22% 15%Avg. Downloads
Per App 4,580 824 221
Market Structure By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
Download Distribution
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TOP 3 PLAYERS BY COUNTRY
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Rank Title Publisher
Russia
1 101-in-1 Games Anthology Nordcurrent
2 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
3 Big Bad Sudoku Book Bad Weasel, LLC
South Korea
1 101 미니게임즈 베스트 컬렉션 Nordcurrent
2 로직 스퀘어 (Logic Square) Dev Square
3 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
Spain
1 101-in-1 Games Anthology Nordcurrent
2 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
3 Numberama 2 Okroshka Lab
Sweden1 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
2101-in-1 Games
Anthology Nordcurrent3 Sudoku :) TicBits Ltd
Switzerland
1 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
2 101-in-1 Games Anthology Nordcurrent
3 Sudoku :) TicBits Ltd
United Arab Emirates
1 ▻Sudoku Finger Arts
2 Cross Match Sticks S.H. InfoTech
3 Sudoku Free Optime Software LLCTop 3 By Country
Trend Size Growth Structure Top 3
TOP APPS
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Managing the success of an app is no easy task and this is no definitive source
Defining your market based on the nature of your product (your app) and understanding consumer trends around it could be key
Who do you benchmark against? Investors want to know about the market you
are targeting Are there any emerging consumer trends you
should tap into? (please see Appendix for suggestions)
FINAL THOUGHTS
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Interested in participating in the BETA around the Sub-Categories? (expected launch around 1st of December 2013).
Please use this link to sign up: https://docs.google.com/a/prioridata.com/forms/d/1x-CBG8Hfz2ijax4hnwGlblxD-6Nc5XfZmO-BIRAVros/viewform
.
BETA INTEREST LIST SIGN-UP
”This is an awesome tool for developers to decide on which market to target their promotions to and also to maybe identify markets for which they should be localizing their apps.” – Gurinder, Hashcube
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PRIORI DATA GMBHMarkgrafenstrasse 36
10117 Berlin, Germany
PHONE: +1-650-614-1681
EMAIL: [email protected] / [email protected]
WWW.PRIORIDATA.COM
Thank you!
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Appendix: Fastest Growing (m/o/m) Consumer trends in the App Stores (Sub-Categories). Global + Sweden
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iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Global – all Sub-Categories
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iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Global – Gaming Sub-Categories
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iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – All
Note: For Sweden we discarded any Sub-Categories with less than 2k in-month downloads
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iOS Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – Gaming Sub-Categories
Note: For Sweden we discarded any Sub-Categories with less than 2k in-month downloads
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Android Top 10 Fast Growing Global – all Sub-Categories
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Android Top 10 Fast Growing Global – Gaming Sub-Categories
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Android Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – All
Note: For Sweden we discarded any Sub-Categories with less than 2k in-month downloads
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Android Top 10 Fast Growing Sweden – Gaming Sub-Categories
Note: For Sweden we discarded any Sub-Categories with less than 2k in-month downloads
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In Month Downloads in Scandinavia (September)
Country Android Growth (m/o/m)
iOS Growth (m/o/m)
Sweden 21,262m (0.6%)
-10.8% 18.28m (1.0%)
15.6%
Denmark 11,13m (0.3%)
-8.1% 13.63m (0.7%)
13.3%
Norway 7,31m (0.2%)
-9.2% 10.62m (0.6%)
26.8%