NIRI Cincinnati Tri State -- Regional and National Economic Outlook part 2
19
Economic Outlook George Vredeveld Alpaugh Prof. of Economics Director, UC Economics Center November 10, 2011
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On November 10, 2011, the chapter hosted Dr. Dick Stevie, Chief Economist for Duke Energy, and Dr. George Vredeveld, Alpaugh Professor of Economics at the University of Cincinnati and founder and Director of its Economics Center.
Transcript of NIRI Cincinnati Tri State -- Regional and National Economic Outlook part 2
Economic Outlook
George VredeveldAlpaugh Prof. of Economics
Director, UC Economics CenterNovember 10, 2011
Regional Economy
Changes inCincinnati GRP & National GDP
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Cinti
US
Employment Growth
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
90.00
92.00
94.00
96.00
98.00
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
108.00
US
Cinti
Manufacturing Employment
Jan-04
Jun-04
Nov-04
Apr-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jul-0
6
Dec-06
May
-07
Oct-07
Mar-
08
Aug-08Jan
-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-1
170
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Cinti
US
Changes in Manufacturing Employment
Jan-04
Jul-0
4Jan
-05Ju
l-05Jan
-06Ju
l-06Jan
-07Ju
l-07Jan
-08Ju
l-08Jan
-09Ju
l-09Jan
-10Ju
l-10Jan
-11Ju
l-11
-0.04
-0.02
-6.93889390390723E-18
0.02
0.04
0.06
Cinti
US
Employment Change 2000-20102000=100
Austin Avg-13 OKI Cincinnati Cleveland50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
113.7
98.395.6
96.7
87.5
Per Capita Income MSA Comparisons
Austin Cincinnati Cleveland Avg. 13 OKI 36000
36500
37000
37500
38000
38500
39000
39500
40000
40500
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
2009 Values
Percent Change
Knowledge Jobs MSA Comparisons% of managerial and professional employees
Austin Cincinnati Cleveland Avg. 13 OKI 15.4
15.6
15.8
16
16.2
16.4
16.6
16.8
17
17.2
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2010 Values
Percent Change
Cost of Living MSA Comparisons
Austin Cincinnati Cleveland Avg. 13 OKI 88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102 2010 Values
Some Demographic Talk about Young People
Metro areas that attracted young adults saw increases in the center and the periphery. Those showing decreases in young adults had declines in the core and the periphery
Do we have a labor shortage?
The competition for college-educated 25 to 34 year olds is heating up
Not simply workers, more likely to be entrepreneurs
They like close-in neighborhoods Hispanics constitute one in five They are the best educated and education
premium is growing
The college-educated 25 to 34 year olds
These are the most mobile The likelihood of moving across state or
metro lines falls roughly by half between one’s 25th and 35th birthday
How does Cincinnati rank?
36 out of 50 for percent of population ages 25-34
15 out of 50 for change in college educated
40 out of 50 in growth of young in urban core
49 out of 50 for Hispanic share of young adults
Education LevelsPercentage of Population 25 years and older
Austin Avg-13 OKI Cincinnati Cleveland0
5
10
15
20
25
30
13.411.1 12.1 12.4 12.3
25.6
21.118.6 18
16.6<HSBA
Population Growth 2006-2010
Austin Avg-13 OKI Cincinnati Cleveland-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%14.40%
7.30%
5.40%4.50%
1.90%
Tot Pop18-34 yrs old
Net Migration MSA Comparisons
Austin Cincinnati Cleveland Avg. 13 OKI
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000 2009 Values
Old Age Dependency MSA ComparisonsNumber of 65+/20-64 year olds
Austin Cincinnati Cleveland Avg. 13 OKI 0
5
10
15
20
25
30 2009 Values
NAPM/ISM IndexJune 2010 to August 2011
June
July
AugSe
pOct
NovDec
Jan Feb
Mar Apr
May
June
July
August
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
US
Cinti
