NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC … · Nigeria is the largest economy in sub-Saharan...
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MANAGERIALLY RELEVANT ANALYTICALLY ROBUST CANBACK CONSULTING Boston, Massachusetts www.canback.com +1-617-399-1300 A member of The Economist Group NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERFORMANCE Past, Present, and Future October 2019
Transcript of NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC … · Nigeria is the largest economy in sub-Saharan...
MANAGERIALLYRELEVANT
ANALYTICALLYROBUST
CANBACK CONSULTINGBoston, Massachusetts
www.canback.com+1-617-399-1300
A member of The Economist Group
NIGERIA’S SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERFORMANCE
Past, Present, and Future
October 2019
2
The Canback Global Income Distribution Database (C-GIDD) is used to quantify
market size and demand drivers. C-GIDD is the only database of its kind
C-GIDD
benchmark
products and
services data
Internal to Canback
C-GIDD
economic,
demographic,
social and
psychographic
data
Internal to Canback
C-GIDD
income
distribution data
Available as a
commercial service
at cgidd.com
C-GIDD COVERAGE
• The world's only database with complete subnational data
series
• GDP, household income, size of income brackets, size of
socioeconomic classes, population
• 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities
• Subnational: 2004-2029
National: 1970-2039
C-GIDD MODULES
EXAMPLES OF C-GIDD USES
• Quantify number of households at specific income or
socioeconomic levels
• Compare consumer market sizes across geographies in a
uniform way
• Merge with category or sales data to spot new or under-
developed opportunities
EXPLANATORY POWER OF C-GIDD Demand variance explained by income above
category-specific thresholds
R2
0.00 0.50 1.00
Televison sets
Oil consumption
Cellphone subscribers
Internet users
Personal computers
McDonald's restaurants
Milk consumption
Cash machines (ATMs)
Insurance premiums
Bank deposits
Electricity consumption
Airline passengers
3
C-GIDD covers 213 countries, 697 subdivisions and 997 cities
4
C-GIDD sub-Saharan Africa edition covers 49 countries, 329 subdivisions, and
356 cities (>100,000 inhabitants)
5
Nigeria is the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa and relies heavily on oil
exports. Inequality remains serious problem of the nation
STRUCTURE OF DOCUMENT KEY FINDINGS
• Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of population and GDP*
• The economy relies on oil and gas which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP. Apart from petroleum, Nigeria’s other
natural resources include natural gas, tin, iron ore, coal, limestone, niobium, lead, zinc and arable land
Country overview
Socioeconomics and
demographics
City evolution
GDP and economic
trends
• Nigeria’s strong growth rates over the past decade have been dampened by the recession, which began in in 2016
• Nigeria has seen an increase in finance/public administration’s and oil/gas/mining/utilities’ share of supply-side GDP, at
the expense of agriculture. The country is now less industry-oriented than most of its peers
• On the demand side, Nigeria largely relies on household consumption while international trade contributes less to
GDP. Minerals and organic chemicals take up almost 100% of Nigeria’s export
• The primary risks are associated with poor infrastructure, security, and corruption
• Over the next ten years, the branded goods consuming class will grow by almost 3% in CAGR
• The marginalized class will experience constant growth in the following decades and will comprise 73% of the
population in 2029, causing by growing wealth inequality
• The youth population will dominate Nigeria’s population growth throughout the next ten years, although its share of the
total will decline
• Lagos, Abuja, Idaban, and Port Harcourt are driving the Nigerian transformation
• More than half of Nigeria’s population lives in urban areas and Nigeria is expected to have continued urban growth
* Constant purchasing power parity dollars
Source: Canback analysis
6
Since entering a period of recession in 2016, Nigeria has recovered somewhat but
is far from historical growth rates
• Federal presidential republic
• President: Muhammadu Buhari
• Capital: Abuja
• Population: 195.9 million
• Working-age population: 53.6%
• Urban population: 51.0%
• Gini coefficient: 43.0
• Currency: Nigerian Naira (NGN)
• NGN 325.6 = USD 1.00
• Major ethnic groups: Hausa (27.4%), Igbo (14.1%), Yoruba (13.9%), Fulani (6.3%), Ibibio
(2.2%), Tiv (2.2%), Ijaw (2%), Kanuri (1.7%)
• Religious affiliations: Muslim (50%), Christian (40%), Indigenous beliefs (10%)
• Official language: English
• Other major languages: Hausa, Yoruba, Igbo (Ibo), Fulfulde
• GDP origins:
− Services (57%)
− Industry (22%)
− Agriculture (21%)
• Nigeria's long-term economic performance will pick up
moderately as the Federal Government further
implements public and social investment projects
• The growing importance of services has bolstered
growth in the economy.
• With the largest population and economy in Sub-
Saharan Africa, high market potential is constrained by
extremely low income levels for the majority of the
population
* GDP and income are measured in local 2010 constant currency
Source: World Bank; IMF; CIA World Factbook; C-GIDD; Canback analysis
NigeriaAbuja
Port Harcourt
Lagos
Ibadan
Benin
Kano
KadunaBenin
Niger Chad
Cameroon
Atlantic Ocean
HISTORIC DEVELOPMENT OF KEY INDICATORS
Indicator* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019'09'-'19'
CAGR
GDP growth 6.9% 7.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.4% 6.3% 2.7% -1.6% 0.8% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4%
Household
income growth30.4% -9.1% -2.7% -0.1% 19.7% 0.4% 1.0% -5.9% -0.5% 1.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Inflation 12.5% 13.7% 10.8% 12.2% 8.5% 8.0% 9.0% 15.7% 16.5% 12.1% 11.3% 11.8%
Pop growth 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7%
7
In sub-Saharan Africa and its comparison group, Nigeria is both the largest
country in terms of population and GDP**
479.5
433.0
97.8
696.3
65.2
76.5
45.639.4
1,301.6
1,044.6
164.4
170.3
99.9175.5
86.7
3,671.5
52.2
30.1
58.1
201.0
31.8
25.5
25.3
Cote d’Ivoire
894.9
Nigeria
South Africa
Kenya
Angola
Ghana
Cameroon
Other Africa
POPULATION2019, millions
GDP*2019, B USD
GDP**2019,B PPP$
* Constant 2010 values at the 2010 exchange rate
** Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
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Nigeria’s GDP supply structure has been stable in the past forty years, with
service sector taking larger share comparing to its comparison countries
GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN OVER TIME 1979-2019e, % of GDP
25%21%
25%
13%16%
20%
17%11%
12%
11%19%
10%
7%8% 9%
10% 4%
18% 21% 21%Agriculture
1979
Manufacturing
3%
2019e1999
Construction
Transport, storage, and
communication
Oil/gas/mining and utilities
Wholesale, retail trade,
restaurants, and hotels
Finance and
public administration 18%
27% 29% 30%21%
44%
18%
21%13%
9%21%
10%
9%
9%
7%10%
5%
15%
13%
5%
8%
25%
4%
12%
16%
14%
9%
6%13%
8%
6%
5%
6%
13%
12%21%
16%24%
33%
9%
CameroonGhana Cote
d’Ivoire
3%
Kenya
3%
Angola South
Africa
GDP SUPPLY BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES2019e, % of GDP
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis
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In the last forty years, household consumption has grown to cover more of
Nigeria’s demand-side GDP, while government spending has declined
36%19%
34%
14%28% 30%
22%
23%
18%
19%
30% 19%
9%
11%
14%
14%
11%21%
72%
70%
66%
79%
54% 59%
-39%-23%
-32% -25% -22% -28%
AngolaGhana Cameroon KenyaCote d’Ivoire South Africa
13%
37%
14%
26%
12%
15%
35%7%
7%
35%
58%
78%
-9% -13% -14%
Household
consumption
1979 1999 2019e
Government
consumption
Investment
Imports
Exports
Nigeria’s household consumption experienced tremendous increase from
1978 to 1998, which significantly shrinks the percentages of government
consumption and investment. Besides Kenya, Nigeria’s household
consumption overpasses the average of its comparison countries (66.5%)
in 2018, but other sectors appear significantly weaker.
GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN – COMPARISON COUNTRIES2019e, % of GDP
GDP DEMAND BREAKDOWN OVER TIME1979-2019e, % of GDP
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis
10
Nigeria’s export is almost fully dependent on oil while imports largely depend on minerals and vehicles.
There is a big difference between its exports and import partners
NIGERIA EXPORTS BREAKDOWN2019e
NIGERIA IMPORTS BREAKDOWN2019e
MAIN TRADE PARTNERS2019
Imports
100% = USD 63.4 B
Exports
100% = USD 63.4 B
Source: UN Comtrade; Canback analysis
* Discrepancy comes from difference between C-GIDD and UN Comtrade
97%
Oil
3%
Others
37%
34%
11%
7%Minerals and organic
chemicals
Vehicles and machinery
Manufactured goods
Inorganic and
man made chemicals
Plant products
5%
Metal products
Animal products
3%
3%
South Africa
France
Sweden
India
3.7%
Netherlands
Spain
USA
Indonesia
United Kingdom
Brazil
Other
Discrepancy
6.2%
16.2%
10.9%
10.3%
8.1%
6.5%
4.3%
3.9%
3.3%
26.6%
0.0%
1.9%
Netherlands
30.6%
1.7%
Other
China
1.8%
Korea, South
Belgium 5.9%
USA
India
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Russia
Discrepancy
13.6%
8.0%
7.6%
5.2%
3.7%
2.0%
18.1%
11
Political instability, currency fluctuation and economic structure risk are among the
serious challenges faced by Nigerian government
TOPIC RISK
Economic growth is well below potential, as
is hydrocarbons output, from which the
government gets most of its revenue
Federally retained revenue is among the lowest in the world, at less than 4%
of GDP. If debt-servicing costs continue to rise sharply, the sovereign may be
faced with the choice of defaulting or ceasing to provide basic services
Ongoing distortions in the foreign-
exchange market and political interference
will continue to weigh on currency risk
A legacy of currency and capital controls and the multiple-exchange-rate
regime increase transfer and convertibility risks. If oil prices were to crash,
restrictions could again come into force
Non-performing loans increased during the
2016-17 recession
The banks are highly exposed in particular to the energy sector, which leaves
the banking sector highly vulnerable to price fluctuations on the world crude
market
Presidential and legislative elections on
passed peacefully in the main, but the
result underscored an endemic geopolitical
divide between the north and south of
Nigeria
High political, social and religious tensions drive serious outbreaks of violence:
Frequent and extreme violence can often be seen in the north; poverty and
underdevelopment are common themes, as is political interference for self-
interested ends
Oil still generates the bulk of fiscal revenue
and almost all export earnings, reflecting
the failure of successive governments to
undertake structural reform
There has been some progress on economic reform over the past decade, but
significant deficiencies in the business environment remain, compounding
underlying structural weaknesses in the public finances
Sovereign Risk
Currency Risk
Banking Sector Risk
Political Risk
Economic Structure
Risk
Source: World Bank; Transparency International; EIU; Canback analysis
12
Nigeria has seen rapid growth throughout the last twenty years. However, the
future growth will be dampened by the recession, which began in 2016
GDP EVOLUTION1979-2029, Constant 2010 B NGN
Forecast
Economic era
CAGR by era 2.9%
Next decadeDemocracy
2000-2018
5.8%
Post-Independence
1979-1999
2.1%
1970 – 1999
After the 1967-70 civil war, an oil boom supported the
strengthening of the central government. Dependence on
petroleum paired with falling oil output and prices led to declines in
GDP per capita during the late ’70s and early ’80s
2000 – 2018
Substantial economic reforms, in
conjunction with rising oil prices and output,
led GDP per capita to almost double
2019 –
GDP growth rate is projected
to be low throughout the next
decade
Era
s
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
30,000
20,000
0
10,000
40,000
60,000
50,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Source: Bloomberg; C-GIDD; Canback analysis
13
In the next decade, Nigeria will experience lower growth rate than the average of
both comparison countries and the whole world
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Ethiopia
Sudan
Angola
Cameroon
Ghana
Cote d’Ivoire
Kenya
Nigeria
Uganda
South Africa
Nigeria
Other countries
Other countries
GD
P g
row
th
20
19
-20
29
GDP / Capita
2019, Constant 2010 PPP$
7.7%
6.5%
5.9%
5.7%
4.8%
4.8%
3.2%
2.9%
1.8%
1.1%
-2.9%
Nigeria
Ghana
Uganda
Cote d’Ivoire
Ethiopia
Kenya
Cameroon
Angola
South Africa
Sudan
Equatorial
Guinea
Each dot represents one country
Typically, the higher the GDP per capita is of a country, the harder it is for
that country to grow its economy
EXPECTED ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE*2019-2029
* Trend-curve is generated by applying nonlinear regression on GDP growth and GDP per capita of 212 countries since 1980; weighted based on population
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
PROJECTED GDP2019-2029 CAGR
Regional average
Global average
14
Nigeria’s income per capita growth was near the top of its comparison group in
2019, but projected to increase significantly over the next decade
HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER CAPITA EVOLUTION FOR COMPARISON COUNTRIES2009-2029, constant 2010 PPP$*
7,771
7,534
2,683
4,074
2,175
1,831
2,342
2,195
2,396
1,366
1,419
743
Sudan
Equatorial Guinea
Cote d’Ivoire
South Africa
Kenya
United States
Nigeria
35,805
Uganda
Ghana
Angola
Cameroon
Tanzania
Ethiopia
8,412
7,388
4,234
3,274
3,028
2,708
2,670
2,568
2,142
1,733
1,580
1,022
41,391
9,089
4,123
5,538
3,395
4,196
3,753
2,688
3,221
1,895
2,287
2,438
1,543
45,853
2009 Growth p.a.
’09-’192019 2029
Projected growth p.a.
’19- ’29
* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars, the metric used for cross-country comparisons
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
1.5%
0.8%
-0.2%
4.7%
-2.2%
3.4%
4.0%
1.3%
1.6%
-1.1%
2.4%
1.1%
3.2%
1.0%
0.8%
-5.7%
2.7%
0.3%
3.3%
3.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-1.2%
2.8%
4.4%
4.2%
15
We now turn to socioeconomic and demographic perspectives on Nigeria. We use
socioeconomic levels as described below
UPPER CLASS (AB)
• Multimillionaires with inherited wealth
• Owning rent-producing properties
• Living in ostentatious luxury
• Residences located in exclusive residential neighborhoods
UPPER MIDDLE CLASS (C+)
• High-level executives or professionals at large firms
• Same consumption habits as upper class, but constrained by income
• Own or rent residence in residential zone
• Members of first-class clubs and organizations
MIDDLE CLASS (C)
• Professionals, executives or employees of mid-sized businesses
• Living in comfortable style
• Able to easily meet their primary needs
• Reside in detached houses or modern buildings in middle-housing area
LOWER MIDDLE CLASS (D+)
• Employees of small business or informal company
• Live in heavily populated area
• Live in apartment building or small detached houses
• Able to meet their primary needs
LOWER CLASS (D)
• Low-level worker at small company
• Almost no convenience goods
• Barely able to meet primary needs
• Living in heavily populated area or informal housing
MARGINALIZED CLASS (E)
• Informal work or unemployed
• Large family size
• Living outside urban centers in makeshift huts
• Barely any convenience goods Source: AMAI; ZonaLatina; Canback analysis
16
On a global scale, Nigeria is a lower middle income country. Over the next 20
years, there won’t be significant changes in its income distribution
100
0
50
150
200
Household
income
(log scale)
1,0
00
Mill
ion
s o
f h
ou
se
hold
s
10
0
10
,00
0
10
0,0
00
1,0
00
,000
Nigeria average household
income 2019 = PPP$ 15,357
GLOBAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION2019, Constant PPP$*
NIGERIA HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION1979-2039, Constant PPP$*
2
0
10
6
4
8
Household
income
(log scale)10
0
Mill
ion
s o
f h
ou
se
hold
s
10
,00
0
1,0
00
10
0,0
00
1,0
00
,000
Nigeria 2039
Nigeria 2019
Nigeria 1979
Africa
Asia
Europe
N America
S America
Oceania
* Constant 2010 purchasing power parity dollars
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
17
The richest 6% of Nigerians earn 30.4% of total income. The income of the upper
and upper-middle classes is nearly 12 times that of the lowest decile
69.3%
28.8%
15.2%
19.3%
9.7%
21.6%
11.4%
10.0%
8.9%1.8%
Marginalized
2019
0.8%Upper
3.1%
2019
Upper middle
Middle
Lower middle
Lower
Population
ShareIncome
Share
1,406,768
677,353
565,436
461,870
366,655
299,050
259,054
195,624
115,0730-10%
70%
80%
90-100%
60%
20%
50%
30%
40%
Corresponding to
Nigerian Gini
index of 43.0
Marginalized
Lower
Lower
middle
Upper,
upper middle
and Middle
Associated
SELPopulation
Decile
INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY SOCIOECONOMIC GROUP2019, %
NIGERIA INCOME PER CAPITA2019, NGN, by decile*
* Average income by socioeconomic level (SEL) in Nigeria
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
18
In the next decade, per capita income will be stagnant, leading to similar SEL
growth going forward
272,645
218,803226,028
2009 2019 2029
-2.2%
+0.3%
INCOME PER CAPITAConstant 2010 NGN
GROWTH BY SEL2019-2029 CAGR
SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL DISTRIBUTION2009-2029, %
The analysis is based on the international definition of SEL’s adapted from an association of
research agencies (AMAI) in order to provide a standardized basis for cross-country
comparisons. The current socioeconomic level index groups individuals in six levels based on
an assignment tree considering 13 variables
8.4%
Lower
Lower middle
Upper
Upper middle
Middle
Marginalized
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
2.8%
2.3%
17.4%
16.5%16.8%
12.1%
2.0%3.5%
4.4%3.4% 3.6%
2.9%2.0%
2.1%
0.9%
Lower
Lower middle
2029
1.4%
61.9%
20192009
75.2%
0.9%
73.1%
Upper
Upper middle
Middle
Marginalized
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
19
The branded goods consuming class will increase by almost 3% CAGR in the next
decade; population of the marginalized class will grow significantly
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
140
180
80
40
0
120
20
60
100
160
200
220
Upper
Upper middle
Middle
Lower middle
Lower
Marginalized
POPULATION BY SOCIOECONOMIC LEVEL1979-2039, millions
Over the next 20 years, classes of all socioeconomic levels will increase in absolute terms, with
marginalized class increasing the fastest whereas the growth rate of other classes are relatively similar.
Apart from that, the branded goods consuming class in Nigeria will boom by 32% throughout the next
decade, making Nigeria a better FMCG market.
Forecast
32.0
2019 2029
23.2
+3.2%
BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS*2019-2029, millions
* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes)
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
20
The youth population will grow more in absolute terms than any other age group in
the next decade; share of each age category will be stable in next ten years
257.8
2019
24.0
0-18
7.9
19-24
201.0
9.0
25-34
5.5
35-44
5.4
45-54
5.0
55+ 2029
‘18-’28
CAGR
Total population
3.1%
3.5%
2.4%
2.9%
3.2%
2.1%
2.5%
Population in each age
classes will increase during
the next decade, with most
significant increasing in youth
bracket
35-44
10.8%11.5%
13.7%
45-54
10.1%
251.6
6.5%
195.9
49.9%
9.4%
14.2%
10.0%
7.2%
55+ 7.2%
14.3%
2029
0-18 52.2%
11.0%
25-34
52.1%
6.3%
2019
6.8%6.8%
2009
150.3
19-24
AGE GROUP EVOLUTION2019-2029, millions
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP2009-2029, millions
Source: UN; C-GIDD; Canback analysis
21
In West Africa, most of the largest cities are from Nigeria. The country has 50% of
its population living in urban areas and is expected to further urbanize
MOST URBANIZED WESTERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES2019-2029 urban share of population**
Population
M
HCE*/capita
PPP$ ‘000
Total HCE*
PPP$ B
14.5
4.5
10.5
7.0
4.0
7.1
7.8
6.5
6.9
3.3
6.0
8.3
7.8
2.6
6.8
8.2
2.8
7.3
6.4
1.5
20 LARGEST URBAN CENTERS IN WESTERN AFRICA2019
6.2
21.4
15.9
30.2
7.7
116.6
25.1
27.9
19.9
15.9
13.4
10.2
8.9
8.3
5.4
8.1
7.0
6.1
5.9
5.3
* HCE stands for household consumption expenditure. 2010 constant exchange rate used
** Urban population as a percentage of total population
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
Country 2019 2029
Mauritania 62.1% 66.5%
Gambia 61.8% 65.7%
Cote d'Ivoire 56.9% 62.6%
Ghana 56.5% 62.1%
Nigeria 51.7% 59.0%
Liberia 51.3% 55.8%
Benin 45.8% 50.8%
Senegal 45.2% 49.8%
Mali 42.9% 49.7%
Togo 42.0% 47.2%
Sierra Leone 41.5% 46.2%
Guinea 39.2% 44.6%
Burkina Faso 33.1% 40.4%
Nigeria Other countries
Lagos 15.8
Port Harcourt 2.9
Ibadan 3.6
Abidjan 5.6
Kumasi 3.1
Abuja 2.8
Kano 4.0
Accra 2.5
Dakar 4.1
Benin City 1.7
Aba 1.1
Uyo 1.1
Bamako 3.1
Kaduna 1.1
Sekondi-Takoradi 0.9
Jos 0.9
Conakry 2.2
Warri 0.8
Owerri 0.8
Ouagadougou 3.5
22
Throughout the next ten years, Nigeria will urbanize faster than its peers, with the
majority of the population growth being found in urban areas
4.1%3.4% 2.8%
4.9%4.3%
1999
3.5%
2009
3.2%
2019
3.6%
2029
42.6
(21.2%)
61.3
(30.5%)
Rural97.0
(48.3%)
Other urban
Major cities*
257.8
201.0
2009 Major
cities
9.6
Rural Major
cities
27.3
Other
urban
20.9
20292019
12.7
Other
urban
24.3
154.4
Rural
8.6
+2.7% CAGR
+2.5% CAGR
Nigeria
Comparison countries** Forecast
SOURCE OF POPULATION GROWTH2009-2029, millions
NIGERIA POPULATION BREAKDOWN2019, millions
URBANIZATION RATEYear on year, 1999-2029Rural countrysideLagos
* Cities with more than 500,000 residents
** Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Sudan
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
Total: 201
23
Lagos has the largest branded goods consuming class in Nigeria. The top 14
cities will see an average rate of 4% growth in branded goods consuming class
Kaduna
Ibadan
487
Lagos
Port Harcourt
546
Abuja
Kano
Benin City
Uyo
Aba
Jos
Warri
Zaria
Yola
Owerri
5,533
1,766
420
1,728
1,240
1,092
512
467
442
316
294
285
BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASSPopulation in 2019, ‘000
CAGR2019-2029e
BRANDED GOODS CONSUMING CLASS*
SHARE BY MAJOR CITIES2019, Nigeria
* Branded goods are assumed to be consumed by lower middle class and above (i.e., lower middle + middle + upper middle + upper classes)
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
3.0%
4.0%
4.2%
2.6%
3.8%
3.8%
4.0%
4.3%
3.6%
3.7%
4.4%
3.7%
4.1%
4.4%
Yola
1.3%Ibaban
7.6%
Warri
1.8%
Zaria
1.4%
Benin City
2.2% Owerri
1.2%
Port Harcourt
7.4%
Abuja
5.3%
Kaduna
2.4%
Uyo
2.1%
Aba
2.0%
Jos
1.9%
Kano
4.7%
Lagos
23.8%
Yola
1.3%
24
Port Harcourt has the highest share of affluent consumers. Over time, the
country’s most well-off group will grow rapidly
38%
Ibadan
40%
80%18%
37%
1%Port Harcourt
16%
55%
60%3%
60%
Kaduna
37%3%Uyo
7%
59%37%3%
4%
Aba
39%
59%
4% 39%
3%Lagos
54%
43%
53%
57%Warri
57%
56%
Abuja
Jos 4%
40%5%
50%
41%5%Owerri
Benin City
50%43%7%Zaria
33%52%15%Yola
30%Kano
Less than NGN 250K NGN 250K – 750K More than NGN 750K
SHARE OF POPULATION BY INCOME BRACKET2019
NGN 250K and 750K were used as income cutoff points to illustrate how income brackets can meaningfully segment a population based on consumption power
Source: C-GIDD; Canback analysis
Below NGN 250K NGN 250K - 750K Above NGN 750K
'19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr '19-'29 cagr
-8.3% -10.5% 6.3%
-11.0% -8.7% 8.3%
-10.5% -8.1% 8.8%
-10.5% -8.0% 8.4%
-13.2% -10.4% 6.9%
-11.4% -7.7% 9.0%
-14.0% -10.2% 6.8%
-11.6% -7.3% 8.7%
-12.3% -7.5% 8.7%
-12.9% -7.1% 9.4%
-13.7% -6.4% 9.6%
-13.8% -6.5% 9.4%
-7.5% 3.5% 13.0%
-12.9% -0.6% 12.0%
25
Boston Chicago Mexico City London Johannesburg Shanghai Jakarta
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issues where quantitative analysis is central to success
Founded by Dr. Staffan Canback, we are an elite management
consulting firm.
We operate globally with the world’s largest companies as clients.
This has taken us to 89 countries since our founding in 2004.
The basis for our work is predictive analytics, applied with high
resolution, and informed by on-the-ground market observations.
Canback has five practices: Strategy, M&A Due Diligence, Sources of
Growth, Corporate Finance, and Performance Improvement.
We also offer analytic services with the Canback Global Income
Distribution Database (C-GIDD) as our cardinal product.
Canback is a subsidiary of The Economist Group since 2015.
26
Canback Consulting is probably the world’s smallest global company
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Offices
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Global projects
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13%
South America
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7%
Africa
20%
Asia-Pacific
11%
27
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