Niel Bowerman - Why & How We Should Prioritise - EA Global Melbourne 2015
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Transcript of Niel Bowerman - Why & How We Should Prioritise - EA Global Melbourne 2015
Why and how to prioritise
Niel BowermanFuture of Humanity InstituteCo-founder, Centre for Effective Altruism
1 May 2023
What is effective altruism?
1. Figure out how to do the most good
2. Do it!
Why should we prioritise?
- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
- 2 4 6 8 10
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
- 2 4 6 8 10
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Antiretroviral therapy
Prevention of transmission during pregnancy
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
- 10 20
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)Cost-effectiveness (QALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Prevention of transmission during pregnancy
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
- 10 20
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission during pregnancy
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
- 20 40
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission during pregnancy
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
- 20 40
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Distribution of condoms
Prevention of transmission during pregnancy
Education for high-risk groups
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Global health interventions
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/$1,000)
Boosting school attendance
Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0
0
0.16875
0.18
0.44375
Additional years in school per £100
Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)
Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0
0
0.16875
0.18
0.44375
8.6875
12.9375
Additional years in school per £100
Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)
Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0
0
0.16875
0.18
0.44375
8.6875
12.9375
Additional years in school per £100
Climate change
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis machines
Train not plane to Naples
0 5 10 15 20 25
20
16
7
5
1
1
Offset HFCs
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis machines
Train not plane to Naples
0 200 400 600 800
20
16
6.66666666666667
5
1
0.6
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
800
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100
Offset HFCs
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis machines
Train not plane to Naples
0 200 400 600 800
20
16
6.66666666666667
5
1
0.6
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
800
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100
How to prioritise
Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention
Choosing an intervention from within a cause area
Choosing a cause area
Factoring cost-effectiveness
Comparing effectiveness
Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention
• Track record• Transparency• Quality of team
Choosing an intervention from within a cause area
• Randomised control trials
• Cost-effectiveness estimates
Choosing a cause area
• Scale• Neglectedness• Tractability• Crucial
considerations
Take-home points1. Some things we can work on are far more effective than
others
2. Prioritisation is challenging
• However there is a growing body of experts working on this problem
3. Take prioritisation seriously
• Change your mind
• Change your actions