© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies

for Nideraby John Roach

August 17, 2009

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

7601 N. Federal HwySuite 265-B

Boca Raton, FL 33487

800-622-7628

jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?

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World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop

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Dollar IndexWeak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower

Traders’ 1st Target

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March Intentions

March Intentions

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•Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecast

•Slow U.S plantings caused acreage and yield worries

•China building soybean reserves

•Fear of rampant inflation

•Massive speculative money came into grain markets as traders chased bull market moves

In Addition We Had

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•South American crops quit shrinking

•U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper

•There is no inflation….yet

•China quit buying

•U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops

Why Have Prices dropped?

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What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?

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World Soybean Crop is forecast 31.5 Million tons bigger than last year

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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

U.S. and world inventory very tight now

We must raise big U.S. crop this year & South America next year

2010 ending stocks increasing but still tight

Prices headed down into harvest depending on frost and Dollar value

Bean Situation and Price Outlook

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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

World coarse grain ending stocks ample

U.S. ending stocks are now ample

Livestock producers losing money

We still need a big corn crop every year

Prices headed toward harvest lows – dependant on frost date and Dollar value

Corn Situation and Price Outlook

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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5th largest on record

Look for fewer acres in 2010

Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production

CFTC Index fund changes may hurt

Wheat Situation and Price Outlook

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How Should I Market My Crops?

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Roach Ag Sales Plan1. Make as many of your sales as possible

during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November

2. Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals

3. Buy puts on unsold new crop production at the same time

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Chicago December Corn Futures, 1990-2005 average1-

Jan

1-Fe

b 1-M

ar

1-Apr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

1-Ju

l

1-Aug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

230

235

240

245

250

255

260

265

approximate dates

cents

per

bus

hel

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Chicago November Soybean Futures, 1990-2005 average1-

Jan

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-Apr 1-

May

1-Ju

n

1-Ju

l

1-Aug 1-

Sep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

570

575

580

585

590

595

600

605

610

approximate dates

cent

s pe

r bu

shel

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

•Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year

•March through June is usually best

Rule # 1

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December 2007 Corn

Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal

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Roach Ag Sell SignalsYour Digital Thermometer For Prices

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Roach Ag Sell SignalsWhen Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal

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Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)

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Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal

Rule # 2

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•Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal

Rule # 3

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Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Put Opportunity - Buy Buy Puts on some of the Crop Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contracton a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

7601 N. Federal HwySuite 265-B

Boca Raton, FL 33487

800-622-7628

jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com