Conversation with ConversationsNico Cloete

UWC Institute of Post-School Studies

Africa Needs Research Universities

1. Research universities in low- and middle-income countries have crucial roles to play in developing differentiated and effective academic systems, and in making it possible for their countries to join the global knowledge society and compete in sophisticated knowledge economies

2. A research university is not an ivory tower and is relevant to the wider community; much of its research is carried out in collaboration, with funding and sponsorship from non-university sources.

3. Research universities are committed to the creation and dissemination of knowledge, in a range of disciplines and fields, and featuring the appropriate laboratories, libraries, and other infrastructures that permit teaching and research at the highest possible level

4. Understanding the characteristics of the research university and building the infrastructures and the intellectual environment needed for successful research universities is a top priority

Altbach: 2013. The role of research universities in developing countries. Studies in Higher Education. 38(3): 316-330

Cloete 2014: (2014) The South African higher education system: Performance and policy. Studies in Higher Education, 39 (8): 1355-1368

3

The South African Post-school System 2010 vs 2012

Compiled by Charles Sheppard

Source: DHET HEMIS 2012

4

Gross enrolment ratio and global competitiveness

2000 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Govt15.93 Govt

19.89

Student fees7.80 Student fees

15.47

Third stream8.78

Third stream14.54

27%

24%

49%

29%

31%

40%

Higher education income sources, ZAR (billion)(Source: DHET, Financial Statements in Annual reports submitted by Universities)

Cu

ba

Fin

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Ma

laysi

a

Gh

an

a

US

A

Se

ne

ga

l

Au

stra

lia

Ind

ia

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

Ch

ile

So

uth

A

fric

a0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

4.47

2.182.04

1.761.44 1.39 1.38 1.24 1.20 1.15

0.95 0.930.71

Expenditure on higher education as % of GDP, 2012

Compiled by Charles SheppardSource: OECD 2010

SA HE System:Diagnosis of National Planning Commission (2011) From Numerous Reviews (World Bank; Harvard; WEF)

1. low participation and high attrition rates

2. medium knowledge producing

3. insufficient capacity for adequate skills production

4. differentiated (but not a formal policy)

5. minority (+/- 5 ) of ‘chronic crisis’ institutions (gives HE bad press)

• Shift from Equity to Development, and the Return of Equity (Transformation Oversight Committee, 2013)

• SA continually paralyzed by inability to prioritize between competing interest group (not the NPC)

More PhDs

1. Castells – the university as engine of development in the knowledge economy (1991 Kuala Lumpur, World Bank; UWC 2001)

2. Knowledge more important than capital or materials3. Talent, not capital is the primary source of competitive advantage 4. Unprecedented growth – China 50 000 pa, University Sao Paulo more than

the whole SA system – traditional systems US, UK much slower5. Number of doctorates far exceed number of places in US in 1970 50% of

PhDs got tenure track position, by 2006 15% (100 000 new PhDs, 15 000 new academic jobs). In Germany only 6% aim for academic position

6. What do they do – finance, research organisations, pastors7. Silicon valley – innovation8. Ms Zuma (AU commissioner, 2013) – Africa must produce ten’s of thousands

of PhDs – as long as they stay in SA.9. Naledi Pandor DST Budget speech, July 2014 – SA must produce 6000 per

year and will ask government for R5billion10. The PhD factories – is it time to stop? (Cyranoski in Nature, 2011)

Policy Goals: Differentiation• From 1997 WP to DHET WP 2013 differentiation is accepted in principle and

fudged in practice in terms of diversity vs differentiation and overt vs covert.

• NDP: South Africa has a differentiated system of university education, but the system does not have the capacity to meet the needs of the country

• NDP Recommends:

1. Improve the qualifications of HE academic staff from 34% to 75% (this is the number one recommendation).

2. Produce more than 100 doctoral graduates per million by 2030 3. SA needs more than 5000 doctoral graduates per annum4. Most of these doctorates should be in SET 5. Over 25% of university enrolments should be postgraduate 6. Strengthen universities that have an embedded culture of research 7. Performance-based grants to develop centres or networks of excellence

(p318-320)

External/Policy pressures on doctorate production in SA

1111

Goal 1: Strong enrolments in science and technology40% headcounts and 50% Masters & Doctorates

Goal 2: Strong doctoral enrolments15% head count in Masters & Doctoral 3% in doctoral

Goal 3: Favourable student to academic staff ratiosSET 20:1 FTE: 25:1 other fields

Goal 4: Experienced and well-qualified academic staff 50% academics PhD; 60% staff professor and senior lecturer

Goal 5: High undergraduate pass rates80% in SET; Average pass rate of 80%

Goal 6: High outputs of total graduates and of graduates in SET fields25% graduates of total enrol; 40% of total graduates

Goal 7: High outputs of masters and doctoral graduates25% of enrolments must graduate; 15% for doctorates

Goal 8: High levels of new knowledge production by academic staff 1 research publication and 0.20 PhD graduates :per staff

Possible university core goals and targets

12

Differentiation based on performance indicators:Ranking universities on university goals & targets

UCT SU RU WITS UP UWC UKZN UFS NWU UFH UL

4.0 3.9 3.9 3.83.7 3.6 3.5

3.33.1 3.1

2.8

Compiled by Ian BuntingSource: DHET HEMIS 2010-2012

PhD production in SA vs a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011

13

CountryAverage annual

growth rate in total PhDs 2000 - 2011

Population 2011

2011 SET PhD graduates per

100,000 of 2011 population

2011 total PhD graduates per

100,000 of 2011 population

Australia 4.7% 22 324 000 15.9 27.2

Canada 3.3% 34 483 980 10.3 16.5

Czech Republic 9.6% 10 496 670 14.5 23.5

Finland -0.2% 5 388 272 21.1 34.4

Germany 0.5% 81 797 670 24.2 33.4

Hungary 5.1% 9 971 726 6.5 12.4

Ireland 10.1% 4 576 748 20.3 31.6

Italy 11.1% 60 723 570 11.8 18.6

Korea 6.0% 49 779 440 14.0 23.4

Norway 6.4% 4 953 000 16.7 26.2

Portugal 3.5% 10 557 560 11.4 21.9

Slovak Republic 12.8% 5 398 384 16.1 31.0

Switzerland 2.2% 7 912 398 30.1 44.0

Turkey 7.4% 73 950 000 3.5 6.3

United Kingdom 5.1% 61 761 000 19.5 32.5

United States 4.5% 311 591 900 13.0 23.4

South Africa 4.5% 51 770 560 1.6 3.0

Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.

Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2012

1996 2000 2004 2008 20120

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

5,152

6,354

9,1049,994

13,964

685 834 1,104 1,1821,878

Enrolments Graduates

Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

MangosuthuVaal

Walter SisuluVenda

CentralDurban

LimpopoCape Peninsula

ZululandFort Hare Tshwane

RhodesWestern Cape

Nelson MandelaFree State

Johannesburg

WitwatersrandSouth AfricaNorth West

KwaZulu-NatalCape Town

PretoriaStellenbosch

0 50 100 150 200 250 300023456

1724

284344

6775

8694

109

150152154

177199200

240

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Average annual growth

rate (1996-2012)

Universities Western Cape 6 20 23 42 75 17.1%Limpopo 4 4 20 14 17 9.5%North West 42 51 87 100 154 8.5%Stellenbosch 68 83 115 120 240 8.2%Cape Town 73 104 99 151 199 6.5%KwaZulu-Natal 68 70 98 136 177 6.2%Rhodes 27 28 40 27 67 5.8%Witwatersrand 67 81 93 106 150 5.2%Free State 46 59 58 55 94 4.6%Pretoria 107 114 187 180 200 4.0%Fort Hare 0 3 2 11 43 Subtotal: Universities 508 617 822 942 1 416 6.6%

Average Annual PhD Graduate Growth Rates (1996 to 2012)

Progress of 2006 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years by cluster

Vaal MangosuthuSouth Africa

Walter SisuluVenda

LimpopoFort Hare

Cape PeninsulaCentral

WitwatersrandDurban

KwaZulu-NatalRhodes

TshwaneNorth West

PretoriaNelson Mandela

ZululandFree State

JohannesburgCape Town

Western CapeStellenbosch

0%

25%25%26%

33%34%34%35%

45%46%

50%51%51%52%52%52%52%

54%

55%56%

60%65%

100%0%

75%75%74%

67%66%66%65%

55%54%

50%49%49%48%48%48%48%

46%

45%44%

40%35%

Graduates as % of new doctoral intake of 2006 after 7 years % drop outs or incomplete after 7 years

Drop-out and completion rates of the 2006 new entering doctoral cohort

Source: DHET & CHE 2014 Cohort Studies

Within 7 yrs

Within 6 yrs

Within 5 yrs

Within 4 yrs

Within 3 yrs

Within 1 yr

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

46%

42%

36%

26%

16%

3%

54%

42%

41%

38%

34%

22%

Dropped out Graduated

19

Comparison of international PhD completion rates

Country Period of analysis

Norway (2002/3 cohort)

8 years

United States(1992/3/4)

10 years

Canada(2001 cohort)

9 years

 

United Kingdom(1996/7 cohort)

 

7 years

South Africa(2006 cohort)

7 yearsInternational

(FT & PT)

(PT)

(FT)

(FT & PT)

(FT & PT)

International

(FT & PT)

(FT & PT)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

54%

46%

34%

71%

61%

71%

67%

57%

76%

Completion rate

Increases in white and African PhD graduates (2000 – 2012)

2000 2004 2008 2012

591

654

645

816

154

298

384

821

105

175

173

325

49

123

211

496

Whites Africans All South African Africans Rest of Africa Africans

Permanent academic female staff according to rank (lecturer to professor) (2012)

Lecturer

Senior lecturer

Associate professor

Professor

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000

1 213

392

72

43

323

80

28

30

419

151

54

28

1 837

1 360

501

433

White Indian Coloured African

• Network of 50 participating academics and senior administrators (mainly planners) in 12 countries in 7th year

• Coordinated by Chet, UWC Higher Education Studies and Univ Oslo Education• Participating African Countries and “Flagship” Universities

◦ Botswana – University of Botswana ◦ Ghana – University of Ghana◦ Kenya – University of Nairobi ◦ Mauritius – University of Mauritius◦ Mozambique – Eduardo Mondlane◦ South Africa – UCT◦ Tanzania – University of Dar es Salaam◦ Uganda – Makerere University

• Produced two major books: • Higher Education and Development in Africa (2011)• Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African HE (2015)

22

HERANA

Proportion of undergraduate enrolments too high (2011)

23Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

24

Problematic ratios of masters to doctorate enrolments (2011)

Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

Low percentage of academic staff with PhDs (2011)

Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

Too few doctoral graduates (2001, 2007, 2011)

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Universities

27

Publication output too low (1996–2013)

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Universities

28

Mixed performance in % increase in publication output (1996-2013)

Source: Web of Science. Compiled by Robert Tijssen and Hannah Williams

Ratios of high-level knowledge outputs to academic staff with doctorates

Source: Bunting et al. (2014) An Empirical Overview of Eight African Universities

30

Research income by field (USD million, 2013)

Human

ities

Busin

ess

& M

anag

emen

t

Engi

neer

ing

Health La

w

Scien

ce

Tota

l

7.90 7.3712.90

53.14

1.08

10.80

93.18

03.28 4.54

62.09

3.16

12.03

85.1

UCT USD m Makerere USD m

Source: University of Cape Town Institutional Planning; Makerere University Institutional Planning

Dr Nico Cloetencloete@chet.org.zawww.chet.org.za