Nick Redfern

Nick Redfern An empirical approach to film audiences

http://nickredfern.wordpress.com

7-9 July 2010BFI Media Studies Conference

Key Aim: to understand the behaviour of film audiences from box office data

IntroductionData sources

The studyResults and conclusions

Introduction



Four areas of investigation:

The relationship between the gender of a film’s main characters and the mean 3-day gross ratio

The impact of constraints on audiences – the ‘holiday effect’

Understanding the popularity of films at the UK box office

Comparing the behaviour of British and American audiences



Introduction


some sources of box office datasome methods of analysissome results and conclusions


Four areas of investigation:

The relationship between the gender of a film’s main characters and the mean 3-day gross ratio

The impact of constraints on audiences – the ‘holiday effect’

Understanding the popularity of films at the UK box office

Comparing the behaviour of British and American audiences



Introduction


Outline:



The UK Film CouncilBox Office MojoInternet Movie Database

The UK Film Council


Access: www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/weekendboxoffice

Scope: UK box office from July 2001 to present day

Quality of data: very high

Data breakdown: none

Analysis: none

Advantages: free to access excellent coverage of British films Excel format available

Disadvantages: little information outside top 15 films no historical data prior to July 2001 UK data conflated with Ireland




Box Office Mojo


Access: www.boxofficemojo.com

Scope: US box office, international box office, historical data

Quality of data: very high for US box office, high for rest of world

Data breakdown: people, genres, franchises, showdowns

Analysis: news service, historical comparisons

Advantages: free to access wide variety of data for each film

Disadvantages: UK data conflated with Ireland and Malta dollar orientated definition of weekly gross is Friday to Thursday

Access: www.imdb.com

Scope: domestic/international box office available on a film-by-film basis

Quality of data: very high to very poor depending on film

Data breakdown: none

Analysis: none

Advantages: free to access

Disadvantages: data may not be available for a particular film reproduces data available elsewhere box office presented in local currency




Internet Movie Database


UK films onlyreleased at UK box office in 2007 and 2008minimum of 7 consecutive weeks of data (from opening week)feature films only, excluding documentaries

Sampling criteria:



SampleMethodsStatistical analyses

Sample


Source: UK Film Council box office archive, Box Office Mojo

Sample size: 50 films, including Hollywood films produced in the UK (e.g. The Bourne Ultimatum) mid-level UK films (e.g. The Duchess, Son of Rambow) small-budget independent UK productions (e.g. The Flying Scotsman)




Methods


Outliers: an observation that deviates markedly from the other members of its class definition: Q₁ - (IQR × 1.5), Q₃ + (IQR × 1.5) for each class outliers class are removed from their class and discussed separately

Mean 3-day gross ratio:

where n = number of weeks (n ≥ 7), wi = weekend gross (Friday to Sunday), Wi= total weekly gross (Monday to Sunday)

Variables: genre gender as defined by narrative, main characters, presence of stars week of release country of release




Statistical analyses


Descriptive statistics: median, 95% confidence interval (Bonett & Price 2002), interquartile range

Reference:Bonett DG and Price RM 2002 Statistical inference for a linear function of medians: confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and sample size requirements, Psychological Methods 7 (3): 370-383.






Kruskal-Wallis: non-parametric analysis of variance for k groups:

Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, corrected for ties

Post-hoc: Dunn multiple comparisons test, α = 0.0167








Correlation: linear relationship between week of release and mean 3-day gross ratio

Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, 95% confidence interval

Kruskal-Wallis: non-parametric analysis of variance for k groups:

Significance: α = 0.05, two-tailed p value, corrected for ties

Post-hoc: Dunn multiple comparisons test, α = 0.0167





Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratioThe ‘holiday effect’The popularity of filmsAt the US box office

Gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio


Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12

Conclusion

UK films typically gross less than half their box office over the opening 7 to 8 weeks of their release at the weekend ⇒ UK audiences largely attend the cinema during the week.






Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12






Genre Female Female/male Male Total mr: median [95% CI] IQR

Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05

Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13

Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11

Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 1 5 1 7 0.53 [0.42, 0.65] 0.24

Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02

Total 14 12 24 50

Table 1 Genre and gender of main character(s) for UK films, 2007-2008

Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12

Result 1 2 3

The number of films in which the main character(s) are male exceeds those for females and females/males, indicating an overall gender bias in British films.







Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05

Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13

Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11


Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02

Total 14 12 24 50


Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12

Result 1 2 3

The concept of the ‘woman’s film’ persists in the form of heritage romances (The Edge of Love, Becoming Jane) and the ‘chick flick’ (Mamma Mia!).







Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05

Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13

Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11


Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02

Total 14 12 24 50


Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12

Result 1 2 3

Comedy/musical and fantasy/horror/science fiction have no overall gender bias for the main characters.







Action/Crime 0 0 6 6 0.48 [0.42, 0.53] 0.05

Comedy/Musical 5 2 6 13 0.44 [0.37, 0.51] 0.13

Drama 2 1 11 14 0.39 [0.32, 0.46] 0.11


Romance 6 4 0 10 0.37 [0.33, 0.42] 0.02

Total 14 12 24 50


Sample:mr:

N = 50median = 0.41 [95% CI: 0.38, 0.44], IQR = 0.12






Female: N = 11 Median = 0.38 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.41] IQR = 0.05

Female/Male: N = 11 Median = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.35, 0.43] IQR = 0.06

Male: N = 24 Median = 0.46 [95% CI: 0.41, 0.51] IQR = 0.13

FIGURE 1 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by gender (outliers excluded)

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Result 1 2 3

There is a statistically significant difference in the mean 3-day gross ratios of UK films sorted by the gender of the main character(s), once outliers have been excluded (Kruskal-Wallis: Hc = 6.1663, p = 0.0458).











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Result 1 2 3

There is a statistically significant difference between films in which the main character(s) are female and films in which the main character(s) are male (Dunn: p = 0.0072).











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Result 1 2 3

There is no statistically significant difference between films in which the main character(s) are female/male and those in which the main character(s) are female (Dunn: p = 0.1383) or male (Dunn: p = 0.1205).











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Conclusion

UK films, in which the main character(s) is female, accumulate a lower proportion of their gross at the weekend than UK films in which the main character(s) is male.











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The ‘holiday effect’


Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72

Female/Male: N = 11 r (9) = 0.59 [95% CI: -0.02, 0.88] p = 0.06

Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87

FIGURE 2 The distribution of mean 3-day gross ratios by week of release (outliers excluded)

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Conclusion

There is no linear relationship between when a film is released and the mean 3-day gross ratio.






Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72


Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87


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Result

Four films were identified as outliers: The Golden Compass (F/M), St. Trinian’s (F), Penelope (F), Wild Child (F) . No ‘male’ films were classed as outliers.






Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72


Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87


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Remark

The timing of release does appear to be a factor in the value of mr for the four outliers, and this appears to be related to the impact of school holidays.






Female: N = 11 r (9) = 0.12 [95% CI: -0.52, 0.67] p = 0.72


Male: N = 24 r (22) = -0.04 [95% CI: -0.43, 0.37] p = 0.87


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Figure 3 The holiday effect on The Golden Compass, St. Trinian’s, and Penelope

The Golden Compass: mr = 0.5922 release date: 7 December 2007

St. Trinian’s: mr = 0.6204 release date: 21 December 2007

Penelope: mr = 0.6332 release date: 1 February 2008

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Figure 3 The holiday effect on The Golden Compass, St. Trinian’s, and Penelope

Conclusion

The ability of an audience to attend is restricted by external factors, including school holidays and the closure of theatres on Christmas Day.

The Golden Compass: mr = 0.5922 release date: 7 December 2007

St. Trinian’s: mr = 0.6204 release date: 21 December 2007

Penelope: mr = 0.6332 release date: 1 February 2008

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Figure 4 3-day gross ratios for Wild Child and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (both released 15 August 2008)

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Wild Child: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.6441 Narrative: teenage girls at an English

boarding school Stars: Emma Roberts Audience: female, 12 to 17

Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.2905 Narrative: a middle-aged woman in the city Stars: Frances McDormand/Amy Adams Audience: female, 25+






Figure 4 3-day gross ratios for Wild Child and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (both released 15 August 2008)

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Wild Child: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.6441 Narrative: teenage girls at an English

boarding school Stars: Emma Roberts Audience: female, 12 to 17

Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.2905 Narrative: a middle-aged woman in the city Stars: Frances McDormand/Amy Adams Audience: female, 25+

Conclusion

The timing of a film’s release impacts some audiences more than others, and appears to disproportionately affect teenage girls.




The popularity of films


Adaptive contracting: release patterns are dynamically adapted over time to meet emerging demand

References:De Vany A and Walls WD 1996 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry, The Economic Journal 106 (439): 1493-1516.








Sedgwick J 2009 Measuring film popularity: principles and applications, in M Ross, M Grasser, and B Freisleden (eds.) Digital Tools in Media Studies: Analysis and Research – An Overview. Bielefeld: Transcript Verlag: 43-54.

Willingness-to-pay principle: box office gross is a measure of audience preferencethe audience ‘votes with its wallet’








Sedgwick J 2009 Measuring film popularity: principles and applications, in M Ross, M Grasser, and B Freisleden (eds.) Digital Tools in Media Studies: Analysis and Research – An Overview. Bielefeld: Transcript Verlag: 43-54.

Ranking: rankings play a key role in the marketing and mythology of a filmChuck Viane (Walt Disney) – “If you’re the number one film in a given

weekend, you get the most free hits publicity-wise.”weekend gross ranking – highest gross for 3-day weekend is most popular

Willingness-to-pay principle: box office gross is a measure of audience preferencethe audience ‘votes with its wallet’

Title Week 3-day gross Rank Total

gross Rank Δ 3-day ratio

High School Musical 3 1 8409375 1 8409375 1 0 1.00Saw V 1 2436817 2 2436817 3 -1 1.00Burn After Reading 2 1433536 3 2544195 2 1 0.56Ghost Town 1 1347678 4 1347678 4 0 1.00Eagle Eye 2 695611 5 1250292 5 0 0.56Igor 3 451742 6 641280 7 -1 0.70The House Bunny 3 305197 7 535108 8 -1 0.57Taken 5 260342 8 521535 9 -1 0.50Mamma Mia! 16 257705 9 895408 6 3 0.29Mirrors 3 226326 10 484736 10 0 0.47How to Lose Friends and Alienate People 4 162790 11 376558 11 0 0.43The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas 7 110790 12 235358 12 0 0.47Heroes 1 107090 13 107090 15 -2 1.00City of Ember 3 102429 14 177975 14 0 0.58Gomorrah 3 91320 15 178907 13 2 0.51






Table 2 UK box office gross for week ending 26 October 2008










For the same period, the gross of Mamma Mia! is 1.4 times greater than that of Igor











Only 29% of the gross of Mamma Mia! was accumulated at the weekend




Result

Mamma Mia! was more popular with filmgoers than Igor for the week ending 26 October 2008, and that audience largely attended during the period Monday to Thursday.












Conclusion

Ranking films by their weekend gross does not accurately reflect the decisions of audiences in the UK about which films they wish to see.












At the US box office


Table 3 Mean 3-day gross ratio for films at the UK and US box office (n = 8)

Gender Genre UK USMiss Pettigrew Lives for a Day Female Comedy/musical 0.2905 0.6281The Duchess Female Romance 0.3346 0.6432The Other Boleyn Girl Female Romance 0.3772 0.5676Brick Lane Female Drama 0.4593 0.6601Penelope Female Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.6332 0.5753Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.3644 0.5294Made of Honor Female/male Romance 0.3866 0.5489Sweeney Todd Female/male Comedy/musical 0.4159 0.5497Atonement Female/male Romance 0.4413 0.6832The Golden Compass Female/male Fantasy/Horror/Science Fiction 0.5922 0.5511Amazing Grace Male Drama 0.3232 0.5147Brideshead Revisited Male Drama 0.3311 0.5799The Dark Knight Male Action/crime 0.4577 0.5617Hot Fuzz Male Comedy/musical 0.5238 0.5583Quantum of Solace Male Action/crime 0.5524 0.5681

Result 1 2 3

The mean 3-day gross ratio for a film at the US box office is typically greater than 0.5.








Result 1 2 3

The mean 3-day gross ratios for films at the US box office are typically greater than at the UK box office.








Result 1 2 3

The mean 3-day gross ratios for films at the UK box office typically have a greater range than films at the US box office.













Figure 5 3-day gross ratios for Mamma Mia! at the US and UK box office

US box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.5580 n = 15 Opening weekend: $27,751,240 Total gross: $144,130,063 Ratio: 0.1925

UK box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.4445 n = 15 Opening weekend: £6,594,058 Total gross: £69,170,000 Ratio: 0.09530 5 10 15

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Figure 5 3-day gross ratios for Mamma Mia! at the US and UK box office

US box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.5580 n = 15 Opening weekend: $27,751,240 Total gross: $144,130,063 Ratio: 0.1925

UK box office: Mean 3-day gross ratio = 0.4445 n = 15 Opening weekend: £6,594,058 Total gross: £69,170,000 Ratio: 0.0953

Conclusion

Audiences in the UK and the US behave differently, with the former attending during the week and the latter attending at the weekend.

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Summary


Inferring audience behaviour from box office data:

There is a statistically significant relationship between gender and the mean 3-day gross ratio of UK films at the UK box office

There is a ‘holiday effect’ that can affect the size of mr for some audiences

The weekend box office gross is not an accurate measure of a movie’s popularity

British audiences attend films during the week, while American audiences go to the cinema at the weekend

Nick Redfern

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