Gosnell CV - One PageCollaborators:
Greer Gosnell (Mines – Lead) Paty Romero-Lankao (NREL – Lead) Paulo Cesar Tabares-Velasco (Mines) Benjamin Gilbert (Mines) Janet Reyna (NREL)
Targeted External Funding Opportunities:
DOE Lab Call (expected at the end of June), DOE BTO BENEFIT FOA, and CPUC/CEC funding with projects having a budget of around $1 million over 3 years.
Our proposal may also be adapted for NSF Smart and Connected Communities Integrated Research Grant (SCC-IRG, $1.5-$2.5 million) for submission in Q1 2022.
PROJECT NARRATIVE: As society directs vastly more resources toward “smart” and energy efficient (SEE) grid, building, and distributed energy technologies to mitigate climate change, it is crucial to design technologies, policies, and programs to contribute toward distributional justice. Utilities and governments channel significant funds (~$11B from 2013-2017) toward residential energy efficiency (1). Given the Biden Administration’s objective to ensure such spending benefits disadvantaged communities under its Justice40 Initiative, it is crucial to ask to what extent will low-income and disadvantaged households benefit from these public investments and accompanying technology transitions? Evidence suggests higher-income households achieve more savings from time-of-use tariffs and receive more EV, solar PV, and demand-side management incentives (2–5), Black households spend far more on energy than do white households for all but the highest income decile (6).
For decades, researchers have sought to quantify and explain the energy efficiency gap (EEG), which arises from under-investment in energy efficiency even absent environmental externalities, implying a role for policy (7, 8). However, many studies suffer from validity concerns and unobserved factors that may affect investments (9). Research to quantify how the EEG varies by income, race, and gender—or to causally identify solutions to inequities—has been scant, though recent UK evidence suggests government programs disproportionately benefit wealthier households (10). Investment inefficiencies may be acutely strong for households in underserved neighborhoods due to historically unfair policies (11) and disproportionately burdensome search and hassle costs (12, 13). Yet, sparse evidence exists to understand whether there is equitable distribution of access to, or benefits and costs associated with, such programs nor the novel SEE technologies used to maximize participation benefits. Barriers to adoption of SEE technologies are poorly understood, and upfront costs or lack of access to financing may particularly deter low-income households. One key barrier to energy-related investments is households’ immense uncertainty about short- and long-run energy savings, which is not typically reduced by providing technical information on program benefits, or even in-home energy audits, as specific savings depend on households’ unique interactions with their home’s systems and appliances. Critically, a vast majority of residential energy investments occur between moves when homes are bought and sold or landlords can easily access an empty home (1). No rigorous evidence exists to quantify consumer mis-optimization at this critical stage. While making installations prior to move-in can boost satisfaction and lower transaction costs (14, 15), this is the time when decision makers are least certain about potential savings.
Our interdisciplinary approach will allow us to (i) measure the EEG in marginalized communities, (ii) resolve critical uncertainty to improve investment decisions, and (iii) rigorously explore the potential of SEE technologies to improve energy security and provide grid services to these communities.
OVERALL PROPOSAL OBJECTIVES AND TASKS:
1. Survey of primary energy decision makers: We will design and implement an incentivized survey of primary energy decision makers in a representative sample of households with our partner Southern California Edison (SCE), which serves some of the state’s most environmentally “disadvantaged” communities, a majority of which are Hispanic/Latino (Figs. 1 and 2). The survey will solicit information to train our algorithm and additionally collect data on (i) energy literacy, (ii) own/network’s awareness, exposure, and ownership of various SEE technologies, (iii) perceived benefits, costs, and risks associated with SEE programs and upgrades, and (iv) sociodemographic information to assess differential perceptions of these technologies across education, income, race, gender, and prior program access.
2. AI algorithm for SEE investment recommendations: We will subsequently use the utility and survey data to train and test recurrent neural network and random forest models in order to classify technology preferences and predict energy consumption patterns. The algorithm will then make customized SEE investment recommendations based on preferences and expected financial gains.
3. Large-scale field experiment with custom recommendations: We will design, pilot, and implement a field experiment in collaboration with SCE and a partner real estate agency in which we will sample primarily low-income households during a move to understand impacts of tailored information provision. We hypothesize that interventions can substantially improve SEE investments and energy savings during
a move for three main reasons: households (i) may upgrade prior to move-in, vastly reducing hassle costs; (ii) have not yet developed routines and habits around the appliances in their new home, mitigating status quo bias and invoking the ‘fresh start effect’; and (iii) are uniquely focused on the home’s features and inventory during the home or apartment “shopping” process, overcoming problems of limited attention.
VISION, IMPACT, AND UNIQUE POSITIONING FOR NEXUS PROPOSAL: The innovative tools we develop in our research will influence energy investment decisions well beyond our study. In developing the experiment, we will create an online dashboard usable by any utility, real estate agency, or home buyer, owner, or renter. The research complements efforts by NREL and LADWP to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2045 in Los Angeles, though our findings will inform transitions across the nation. The research also complements ongoing Mines/NREL research to better incorporate real-world behavior and decision- making into energy systems modeling, and will capitalize upon insights from NREL’s Home Energy Score research. Each team member offers unique skills and experience that are highly complementary in realizing the outlined objectives. Gilbert developed the economic theory underlying the proposed research and is the team’s foremost machine learning expert. Tabares’ expertise in buildings engineering will be instrumental in developing the algorithmic recommendations and measuring objective well-being indicators. Gosnell (lead proposal writer) is a behavioral scientist who brings extensive experience in field experimental design and management, and has forged research partnerships with a wide range of diverse stakeholders. As LA100’s co-lead of the Equity Study, Romero-Lankao’s background in sociological mixed-methods research will ensure communities’ needs, culture, and constraints are central to every phase of the research.
SEED FUNDING OBJECTIVES AND TASKS:
Objectives: Solicit committed partnerships necessary for successful funding bid, research implementation, and dissemination. Expand the above described narrative, including data collection and preliminary analysis to justify our approach. Complete draft proposal for Nexus review by September 2021. Tasks: 1) Schedule weekly team meetings and assign tasks (Jun); 2) solidify partnerships with real estate agency (Zillow has expressed interest), 1-2 local community stakeholders (e.g., a member of the California Environmental Justice Alliance), and a major policy outreach group (ACEEE has expressed interest) to support the proposal (Jun-Jul); 3) preliminary analysis of utility and real estate sample data to support and visualize research motivation (Jul-Aug); 4) update literature review to include impact of efficient, smart, electric energy-using durables on home value (Jun-Aug); and 5) write full 15-page proposal (Jun-Sep).
REFERENCES: 1. B. Gilbert, J. Lariviere, K. Novan, (2020). 2. A. Faruqui, S. George, Electricity Journal. 18, 53–63 (2005). 3. S. Borenstein, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 4, S85–S122 (2017). 4. S. Borenstein, L. W. Davis, The Distributional Effects of US Clean Energy Tax Credits (2016). 5. A. Satchwell et al., “A National Roadmap for Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings” (2021). 6. E. Lyubich, “The Race Gap in Residential Energy Expenditures” (2020), (available at https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/about/funders/.). 7. A. B. Jaffe, R. N. Stavins, Energy policy. 22, 804–810 (1994). 8. K. Gillingham, K. Palmer, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 8, 18–38 (2014). 9. H. Allcott, M. Greenstone, Journal of Economic Perspectives. 26, 3–28 (2012). 10. D. McCoy, R. Kotsch, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 306. 5709 (2018) (available at www.cccep.ac.uk). 11. D. Aaronson, J. Faber, D. Hartley, B. Mazumder, P. Sharkey, Regional Science and Urban Economics. 86, 103622 (2021). 12. M. Ross, N. Bateman, 1–68 (2019). 13. A. Mani, S. Mullainathan, E. Shafir, J. Zhao, Science. 341, 976–980 (2013). 14. T. Mukai, S. Kawamoto, Y. Ueda, M. Saijo, N. Abe, Energy Policy. 39, 5440–5448 (2011). 15. L. Strupeit, A. Palm, Journal of Cleaner Production. 123, 124–136 (2016).
Supporting Materials
Figure 2 Source: CalEnviroScreen
EDUCATION 2012-2016 Ph.D. Environmental Economics, London School of Economics (LSE) 2011-2012 MSc Environmental Economics and Climate Change with distinction, LSE 2007-2011 BS, Economics, BA, Political Science, Loyola Marymount University, summa cum laude
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 2020- Research Assistant Professor, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines 2016-2020 AXA Future Research Leader on Energy Transition and Research Fellow, Grantham
Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment; Visiting Scholar at UCSD 2016 Research Manager, Marshall Institute for Philanthropy and Social Enterprise, LSE
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS Consumer-Driven Virtual Power Plants: A Field Experiment. WP Market Failures and Willingness-to-Accept the Smart Energy Transition: Experimental Evidence. WP Gosnell, G. K. and M. D. Bazilian. “Changing Behaviour is the Key to Solving the Climate Challenge.”
Nature Human Behaviour (2021) Gosnell, G. K., J. A. List, and R. D. Metcalfe. “The Impact of Managerial Practices on Employee
Productivity: A Field Experiment with Airline Captains.” The Journal of Political Economy (2020) (Harvard Business Review)
Carattini, S., G. Gosnell, and A. Tavoni. “How Developed Countries can learn from Developing Countries to Tackle Climate Change.” World Development (2019)
Gosnell, G.. “A risk-seeking future.” Nature Climate Change: News and Views (2018) Gosnell, G. “Communicating Resourcefully: A Natural Field Experiment on Environmental Framing
and Cognitive Dissonance in Going Paperless.” Ecological Economics (2017) Gosnell, G. and A. Tavoni. “A Bargaining Experiment on Heterogeneity and Side Deals in Climate
Negotiations.” Climatic Change
SELECTED CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS, INVITED LECTURES, AND WORKSHOPS - UK Department for Business, Enterprise, and Industrial Strategy Research Presentation, September 2020 - Ofgem-GRI Workshop on using research in policy-making, London, UK, July 2018 - WCERE 6th World Congress of Environmental & Resource Economists, Gothenburg, Sweden, June 2018 - University of Groningen Markets and Sustainability Seminar Series, Groningen, Netherlands, May 2018 - International Meeting on Experimental and Behavioural Social Sciences, Florence, Italy, May 2018 - BITSS Research Transparency and Reproducibility Training (RT2), London, England, September 2017 - EAERE 23rd Annual Conference, Athens, Greece, June 2017 - International Meeting on Experimental and Behavioural Social Sciences, Barcelona, Spain, April 2017 - Knowledge and Innovation Network, Behavioral Econ in Business, Warwick Business School, March 2017 - National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge MA, August 2015 - London Experimental Workshop, Royal Holloway University, Egham, UK, June 2015
SELECTED GRANTS AND FELLOWSHIPS - J-PAL King Climate Action Initiative (K-CAI) Pilot Project Funding (2021) - GEMCLIME Research Secondment to the University of California San Diego (2019-2020) - AXA Future Research Leader Fellowship (2018-2020) - UKRI Innovation Fellowship (2018) - Marshall Institute Research Grant Recipient (2017)
Throughout her career, she has developed a considerable body of highly regarded interdisciplinary research, resulting in several research grants, and 135 peer-reviewed publications. Paty has extensive experience as a sociologist working across disciplines, and at the science-policy interface, in the US, Mexico, and many other urban locations internationally. Her leadership of international research has garnered a good deal of recognition. She was co-leading author to Working Group II of the Nobel prize-winning IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). She is editor of Earth’s Future and editorial board member of several journals.
Paulo Cesar Tabares-Velasco, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden CO 80401 https://inside.mines.edu/~tabares/
Education The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), University Park, PA, Architectural Engineering Ph.D. 2009 Colorado State University (CSU), Fort Collins, CO, Mechanical Engineering, M.S. 2005 Monterrey Institute of Technology (ITESM), Mexico, Engineering Physics B.S. 2002
Work Experience & Recent Projects 2019-Present. Joint Appointment, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2014-Present. Assistant Professor, Mechanical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines Lead Engineer, Advanced Multi-scale Building Energy (AMBER) Group 2010-2014. Postdoctoral Researcher / Research Engineer, NREL 2003-2005. Graduate Student Project Engineer, Industrial Assessment Center, CSU
• PI: “Characterizing and Quantifying Environmental and Economic benefits of Cross Laminated Timber Buildings across the U.S.”, U.S. Forest Services, 2019-2022
• PI: “Modeling and Opt. of HVAC Thermal Storage in Commercial Buildings”, NREL, 2019-2022 • PI: “Modeling of Behind the Meter Energy Storage”, NREL, 2019-2021 • PI “Renewable Energy Feasibility Study at Fort Berthold Indian Reservation,” U.S.
Department of Interior, Division of Energy and Mineral Development, 2017-2019
• Co-PI: “Robust Asset-and-User-Aware Power Grid Dispatch in Extreme Temp.” NSF, 2016–2019
Proposal-Related Publications 1. Fathollahzadeh, MH. and P.C. Tabares-Velasco. "Electric demand minimization of existing district
chiller plants with rigid or flexible thermal demand." Applied Energy 289 (2021): 116664. 2. Fathollahzadeh, M.H., A. Speake, P.C. Tabares-Velasco, Z. Khademian, and Lone-Fight, L.,
"Renewable Energy Analysis in Indigenous Communities using Bottom-up Demand Prediction," Sustainable Cities and Society, 102932
3. Heine K., P.C. Tabares-Velasco, and A. Thatte. "A Simulation Approach to Sizing Batteries for Integration with Net-Zero Energy Residential Buildings Renewable Energy," Renew. Ener. 139, 2019: 176-185
4. Wijesuriya S., and P.C. Tabares-Velasco. " Experimental apparatus and methodology to test and quantify thermal performance of micro and macro-encapsulated phase change materials in building envelope applications," Energy Storage, 32 December 2020, 101770
5. Tabares-Velasco, P.C, Speake, A., Harris, M., Newman, A., Vincent T. and Lanahan M. 2019. "A modeling framework for optimization-based control of a residential building thermostat for time-of- use pricing," Applied Energy 242: 1346-1357
6. Lanahan M., Engert S., Tabares-Velasco, P.C., and Kim T. "Graphical Visualization of Potential Cost Savings from Energy Storage under Time-of-Use Electric Rates," Journal of Building Performance Simulation, DOI: 10.1080/19401493.2018.1470203
7. Cetin, K., Tabares-Velasco, P.C. and Novoselac, A. "Appliance daily energy use in new residential buildings: Use profiles and variation in time-of-use," Ener. Buil, 84. 2014: 716–726
Honors & Awards • Distinguished Service Award, ASHRAE 2021 • 1st place, 2019 Solar Decathlon Africa, "InterHouse" Team, (HVAC advisor) 2019
U.S. Dept. of Energy and Moroccan Ministry of Energy, Mines • 2009 ‘Crosby Field’ Best Paper Award, ASHRAE 2010 • 2009 Best Poster Presentation Award, ASHRAE 2010 • 2009 ‘Willis H. Carrier’ Award, ASHRAE 2010 • 4th place, 2007 Solar Decathlon Contest, PennState "MorningStart
Home" Team, U.S. Dept. of Energy 2007
Ben Gilbert Assistant Professor, Colorado School of Mines
Division of Economics & Business 1500 Illinois St Golden, CO 80401
Phone: 303-384-2359 bgilbert@mines.edu
(IGERT), Fellowship in Marine Biodiversity and Conservation SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: - Gilbert, B., & Graff Zivin, J. (2020). Dynamic corrective taxes with time-varying salience. Journal of
Environmental Economics and Management. 103: 102356 - Thunstrom, L., Gilbert, B., & Jones Ritten, C. (2018). Nudges that hurt those already hurting –
distributional and unintended effects of salience nudges. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 153: 267-282.
- Beracha, E., Gilbert, B., Kjorstad, T., & Womack, K. (2016). On the relation of local amenities and house price dynamics. Real Estate Economics, doi:10.1111/1540-6229.12170.
- Gilbert, B. & Graff Zivin, J. (2014) Dynamic salience with intermittent billing: evidence from smart electricity meters. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 107 (A): 176-190.
- Fissel, B., Gilbert, B., & LaRiviere, J. (2013). Technology adoption and diffusion with uncertainty in a commons. Economics Letters 120 (2): 297-301.
- Gardzelewski, J., Denzer, A., & Gilbert, B. (2017). Architecturally Integrated Photovoltaic Panels: Residential Design Methods and Consumer Preferences. In Proceedings of the Architectural Engineering Institute 2017 (pp. 940-951), American Society of Civil Engineers.
SELECTED CONTRACTS AND GRANTS: - Sloan Foundation. Colorado Technology Primer for Economists and Social Scientists. $277,334. - University of Wyoming Competitive Energy GA grant. Incentives and Additionality in Energy
Efficiency Subsidies, funded. - University of Wyoming Center for Energy Economics and Public Policy. Aesthetic, Financial, and
Behavioral Barriers to Net-Zero Energy and Solar Home Demand. Funded at $95,000. SELECTED CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS: - June 2020, WEAI Annual Conference: “Energy efficiency, green technology, and the pain of paying” - June 2016, AERE Summer Conference: “Social Image, Signaling, and Sorting: Evidence from a
Discrete Choice Experiment with Solar Homes” - July 2015, InterSolar North America (industry conference), invited panelist: “Social Image in the
Solar Home Market”
Education and Training Ph.D. Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering, May 2016
M.S.E. Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering, May 2013
B.S. Mechanical Engineering, with Distinction, December 2011
Professional Experience 2018–present Research Engineer, National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Residential Buildings
Research Group, Golden, CO
• Researcher on national end use load profile project for DOE
• Development team for Scout national energy forecasting tool
• Coordinator of DOE, LBNL, and NREL contributions to the International Energy Agency’s Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology
• Leading development of building energy modeling technical report for grid-interactive efficient buildings
for Building Technologies Office
2016–2018 ORISE Science & Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Department of Energy, Building Technologies Office (BTO), Washington, D.C.
• Coordinator of DOE, LBNL, and NREL contributions to the International Energy Agency’s Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology
• Contributor to BTO’s building energy modeling technology roadmap
• Contributor to BTO’s grid-interactive efficient buildings literature review and strategy development
• Assisted in testing and development for the Scout national energy forecasting tool
• Coordinated BTO’s problem statement development for the interdisciplinary Hacking for Energy
university course
• Developed a survey on time-sensitive valuation of energy efficiency for modeling
• Developed and reviewed BTO funding calls
2012– 2016 Graduate Research Assistant/NSF Graduate Research Fellowship, Arizona State University
• Dissertation: Developing New Methods for Analyzing Urban Energy Use in Buildings: Historic Turnover, Spatial Patterns, and Future Forecasting
• Contributing proposal author to over $1.3M in grants received
Selected Journal Publications 1. Langevin, J., Harris, C., and Reyna, J. (2019). Assessing the potential to reduce U.S. building CO2
emissions 80% by 2050. Joule. In Press.
2. Reyna, J. and Chester, M. Energy Efficiency to Reduce Electricity & Natural Gas Use Under Climate
Change. (2017). Nature Communications. 8: 14916. doi: 10.1038/ncomms14916
3. Reyna, J. and Chester, M. (2015). The Growth of Urban Building Infrastructure, its Unintended Lock-in, and Embedded Environmental Effects. Journal of Industrial Ecology. 19(4): 524-537. doi:
10.1111/jiec.12211
4. Reyna, J., Chester, M., Ahn, S., and Fraser, A. (2014). Improving the Accuracy of Vehicle Emissions Profiles for Urban Transportation Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Inventories. Environmental Science & Technology. 49(1): 369-376. doi: 10.1021/es5023575
In Preparation 1. Langevin, J., Reyna, J. Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S., Fennell, P., Nageli, C., Sandberg, N., Webster, J.,
Laverge, J., Delghust, M., Van Hove, M., Jakob, M., and Mata, E. Development of a common approach for
classifying building stock and energy models.