Nexus of Climate Change and its Impact on Water

Dr. Shahid AmjadEnvironment and Energy Management

Institute of Business Management (IoBM) Karachi

The warm water in the Indian Ocean could affect the S.W Monsoon period, one of the most important climate patterns in the world that affects more than 1 billion people.

Most Important Climate Change Gases

Source: U.S. EPA 2005

GHGs:• Water vapor: H2O• Carbon Dioxide: CO2

• Methane: CH4

Source Examples:Oceans, Rivers, Plants, SoilCombustion, RespirationWetlands, Oceans, Biodegradation,Animals

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca

Atmospheric Lifetime of Individual Major Greenhouse Gas Molecules

Carbon Dioxide

~60% of warming from GHG 5 to 200 years

Methane ~20% of warming from GHG 8 to 12 years

Nitrous Oxide

~6% of warming from GHG ~120 years

CF4 (Perfluoromethane) >50,000 years

IPCC 2001

GHE#1 - natural

Earth’s Natural Climate

GHE#2 - humansHuman-caused Global Warming

GHE#3 - textDue to human activities, there are now 40% more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than there were a few hundred years ago. (5 bn tons of excessive CO2 ) Trapping of Some Green house gasses is good, average world temp is 14oC. If no heat is trapped than the global Mean temp would be -18oC. The temp over past few decades has risen by 0.6oC

The Earth has already warmed as the consequence of this, and scientists expect that the next 20 to 100 years the world will warm a lot more! (1-5 C). For every 1 C rise, 7% increase in water vapor. (IPCC)

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Siachen Glacier Past & Present

1989 2006Since temperature maxima have been increasing at a greater rate, the thinning of ice and retreat of glacial extent has taken place simultaneously at an alarming rate. The decay estimates calculated by remote sensing techniques show that Siachen Glacier has reduced by 5.9km in longitudinal extent from 1989 to 2009. Thinning of ice mass is evaluated at 17%.

2009

60.00 65.00 70.00 75.005.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

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35.00

F IG U R E 1 7 . T rack o f T ro p ica l C y c lo n es w h ich en te red c irc le o f 3 0 0 n m rad iu s cen te red o n K a rach i.

PAKI STAN

I NDI A

S#

Year Hazard /disaster

How communitiesRationalize?

Kinds of losses Community coping response

1 1964 Cyclone Persistent strong wind, constant rain Livestock ,paddy crops mud houses

Sold livestock, undertook wage Labor in the area

2 1973 Heavy rains monsoon Livestock, paddy crop, mud houses life losses boats and fishing nets lost

Self help, built earthenembankments,

3 1976 Floods High water flow in the Indus, it were the worst floods with highest volume of water passingthrough the barrages and the also highest floods levels ever recorded.

Agriculture land in kacha area destroyed, livestock died, crop damaged, infrastructure also damaged.

Patrolling along weak parts ofbanks

4 1988 Floods Crops destroyed, agriculture land submerged in water

5 1994 Heavy rains Monsoon Livestock, paddy crops

6 1999 Cyclone Less rainfall in the areaand shortage of freshwater in the sea

Human Lives, livestock, paddy crop,

By selling livestock and surplus milk, doing Labor (wood cutting).Survivors took loans, transitorymigration

7 2001 Earthquake Will of God long dry spell Cracks in Pakka houses collapsed

trauma

8 2003 Floods ,

Sudden breach inKPOD, LBOD blockade of canal water. High sea tide and sea water intrusion in LBOD, weak embankment, unexcavated beds ofsmall surface drains.

Wooden houses collapsed, farmlands submerged by the sea water crops of rice, chili, banana, sugarcane destroyed, nets, boats and engine drowned

9 2010 Floods Erosion of sediments and embankments

Damage to property and loss of domestic animals and crops

Support from local community, and better fish and shrimp harvest from creeks.

Policy Measures For Water Resources• Water Storage and Infrastructure

Assess and address the needs for additional water storage and distribution infrastructure;

• Water Conservation Strategies

Ensure water conservation, reduce irrigation system losses and provide incentives for adoption of more efficient irrigation techniques;Introduce local rainwater harvesting measures.

• Integrated Water Resource Management Explore the possibility of joint watershed management of trans-boundary catchment areas with neighboring countries;Safeguard Pakistan’s rights on trans-boundary water inflows according to international norms and conventions;

Legislative Framework

• Legislate and enforce industrial and domestic waste management practices to protect the environment, in particular water resources, from further degradation;

• Enact and enforce laws and regulations required for efficient water resource management and a groundwater regulatory framework;

• Protect the HKH glaciers, considered the world’s water tower, by declaring them as ‘protected areas’ through agreements among countries sharing the Himalayan region.

Water Management: Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century

• Water management and planning• Water rights and accessibility• Water markets and policies• Climate change Irrigation• Urban water management• Hydraulic engineering • Water quality Pollution contaminants and control• River basin management Flood risk management• Geo-politics of water • Water resources and economics • Governance and regulations • Desalination Water services