NextGen and the Weather Information

Database

NextGen and the Weather Information

Database

March 23, 2009

Jason Tuell

Chief, Science Plans Branch

Office of Science and Technology

March 23, 2009

Jason Tuell

Chief, Science Plans Branch

Office of Science and Technology

OverviewOverviewNextGen 101

What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source

Why NOAA?

The roadmap ahead

Broader benefits to NOAA

Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube

Summary

NextGen 101

What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source

Why NOAA?

The roadmap ahead

Broader benefits to NOAA

Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube

Summary

NextGen 101NextGen 101

NextGen 101NextGen 101

Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007

NextGen 101NextGen 101

“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”

Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.

Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.

Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.

Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”

Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.

Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.

Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.

Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008

NextGen 101NextGen 101

NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems

NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:

Providing a multiple user common weather picture

Consistent and reliable weather information

An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems

NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:

Providing a multiple user common weather picture

Consistent and reliable weather information

An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)

NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes

An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users

Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users

Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes

NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes

A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:

“Network Enabled”…

An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time

Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others

Weather information sharing is two-way

“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer

Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:

“Network Enabled”…

An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time

Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others

Weather information sharing is two-way

“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer

Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier

NextGen Weather BasicsNextGen Weather Basics

TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)

Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)

Accuracy meets today’s Accuracy meets today’s requirementsrequirements

Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)

Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes

Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule

Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)

Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS

Better accuracyBetter accuracy

High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution

Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds

Updated by events Updated by events

Flexible formatsFlexible formats

What is the WIDB?What is the WIDB?

The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence

Icing

Convection

Ceiling and visibility

Winds and Temperature

The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence

Icing

Convection

Ceiling and visibility

Winds and Temperature

The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.

What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?

What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):

Is only a portion of the WIDB

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

Sticky issues:

FAA SAS definition differs internally

Who will own the SAS?

Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?

The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):Is only a portion of the WIDB

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

Sticky issues:

FAA SAS definition differs internally

Who will own the SAS?

Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?

The WIDB:A Conceptual ModelThe WIDB:A Conceptual Model

WIDB

CustomGraphic

Generators

CustomGraphic

Generators

Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions

DecisionSupportSystems

DecisionSupportSystems

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

ObservationsObservationsNumericalModelingSystems

NumericalModelingSystems

StatisticalForecasting

Systems

StatisticalForecasting

Systems

NWSForecaster

NWSForecaster

ForecastingForecasting

Automated ForecastSystems

Automated ForecastSystems

Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration

4D WxSAS

RadarsRadars

AircraftAircraft

SurfaceSurface

SatellitesSatellites

SoundingsSoundings

Why NOAA?Why NOAA?

“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”

Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008

“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”

Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008

Integrated Work Plan Defines Our RoleIntegrated Work Plan Defines Our Role

14

Why NOAA?Why NOAA?

NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:

Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation

Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities

Experienced meteorological workforce

Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA

Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:

Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation

Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities

Experienced meteorological workforce

Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA

Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD

The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead

Initial Operational Capability (2013)

Integrated environmental information sources

Meteorologist oversight of gridded data

Common data standards and protocols

Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools

Intermediate Capability (2016)

Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information

Full Network compatibility of environmental information

Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems

Full Operational Capability (2022)

All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved

High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements

Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

Initial Operational Capability (2013)

Integrated environmental information sources

Meteorologist oversight of gridded data

Common data standards and protocols

Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools

Intermediate Capability (2016)

Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information

Full Network compatibility of environmental information

Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems

Full Operational Capability (2022)

All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved

High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements

Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services

Consistency challenges not unique to aviation

More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements

Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts

Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services

Consistency challenges not unique to aviation

More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements

Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts

Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA

Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube

Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA

IT and Data Management enhancements

Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation

Support GEOSS requirements

Enhances continuity of operations

Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube

Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA

IT and Data Management enhancements

Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation

Support GEOSS requirements

Enhances continuity of operations

Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD

Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube

Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube

Consistency

Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast

Model Enhancements and Improvements

“System of Systems”

Decision Support Services

Consistency

Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast

Model Enhancements and Improvements

“System of Systems”

Decision Support Services

The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy

Consistency Challenges:

Spatial

Internal

“Representativeness”

The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy

Consistency Challenges:

Spatial

Internal

“Representativeness”

Convective ModelingConvective Modeling

Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models

Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key

Resolution requirements based on

Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)

Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Global – outside the NAS

Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models

Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key

Resolution requirements based on

Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)

Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Global – outside the NAS

Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”

Model Enhancements and Improvements

Model Enhancements and ImprovementsProduction Timelines - (Estimate…not a final product!)

TerminalTerminal Non-Terminal (TBO)Non-Terminal (TBO) GlobalGlobal

ConvectiveConvective Other WxOther Wx

Refresh Refresh RateRate LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency

0-2 hrs0-2 hrs 5 min 5 min 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min

2-4 hrs2-4 hrs 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min 30 min 30min Every 3 hrs 60 min

4-10 hrs4-10 hrs 30 min 30 min 60 min 30 min 60 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min

10-24 hrs10-24 hrs Every 3 hrs 30 min Every 3

hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3

hrs 120 min

24-26 hrs24-26 hrs Every 6 hrs 60 min Every 6

hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6

hrs 120 min

60hrs-14 days60hrs-14 days Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

Every 24 hrs

2 hrs after model run

time

ClimatologyClimatology Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day

SummarySummary

NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced

The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process

NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond

Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced

The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process

NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond

Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube

The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started

SummarySummary

There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS

The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation

There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube

There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS

The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation

There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube