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Next-GenerationOperational Health & Decision Support
in the Maintenance EnvironmentMr. Tom Dabney
Prognostics & Health Management (PHM) LeadJoint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program Office
2009 Department of DefenseMaintenance Symposium & Exhibition
26 – 29 October 2009
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Discussion Topics
• Evolution to Decision Support• Expected Benefits• JSF PHM Roadmap• Operational Stakeholder Capabilities & Key
Attributes• Health Management Strategic Deployment• Observations & Moving Forward Effectively
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Requires Balance and PerspectiveEnabling Through Technology & Innovative Business Practices
Achieving Next Generation Decision Support
DATA
CBM+
RCM
CBM
Benefit
SurvivabilityLethality
AffordabilityCost Savings
ReadinessAvailability
Mission ReliabilitySafety
Sophistication
Decision SupportPrognostics
Rapid MaturationHealth StateDiagnostics
AnalysisProcesses
DataSystems
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Expected BenefitsNot Inclusive of Qualitative Values
MFHB CNDMFHBMEMFHBRMMH/FH
Maintainability
QTY
Mishap Reduction
QTYWeight (Lbs.)Volume (cu ft)
Support Equipment
Manpower
C17 Loads, TonsLogistics Footprint
Safety
SGRSGR (Initial/Sustained)
PHM Benefit
Airframe/OML RestorationRecurring Cost
79-82% Improvement13-14% Improvement
3% Improvement17-32% Improvement
Reduction of 46-52%
Reduction of 2-17%
Reduction of 14-38%
Reduction of 6-10%
$1.05B - $7.87B Cost Avoidance
10 to 14% Improvement
Based on Concept Demo Phase Cost Benefit Analyses
TODAY
O&SR&D &
Production
JSF
O&SR&Dand
Production
40-60%
Key AttributesProactive Decision
Support/Triggering, Health State Based; Autonomics; Planned
Continuous Improvement; Near Real Time Updates; Anomaly
Management; No False Alarms
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Accessing Material Conditionfor Decision Support
Health AnalysisPrognostics
Remaining Useful Life Trigger Points
Abnormal Health Warning –
Unexpected Slope Delta
Monitor: System or Sub- System Level ; Precursors to Failure Indicators, Usage Indices, Performance
Degraded Health Warning – New
Slope
Notional Example
Decision SupportResource PlanningMaintenance Action
Operational Planning
Change in Health State and Prognostic Indications
Identifying Deltas From Expectations
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Prognostics and Health ManagementNotional Roadmap to Next Generation Decision Support
2009‐ 2015 2016‐2020 2021‐2025
20 Aug 2009
Sustainment Transformation (Health Based with Decision Support)
• Mxt Mgt• Training• Supply Mgt• Business/PBL• FD/S&T Tech Refresh• Warfighter/Sust• Policy Service Procedures
USMC IOC
Notional Multi‐Year Sustainment Contracts
Key Transition Events• Flight Test
• Deployments
• PBL Sustainment
Anticipated 200K Hrs Maturity
Autonomic Improvements, Future Development Initiatives, Service Interoperability Enhancements
Continuous Improvement• RAM/Integrity• KD/Data Mining• Cost Benefit Trades• S&T Insertion
PHM 0.5 Blk 1 Blk 2
PaxEAFB
Eglin RFT
OT
0.51.0 2.0 3.0JRMET
Blk 3
Tech Insertion
2009 2011 2013 20152010 2012 2014
LRIP4Sust’mt
LRIP5 LRIP6 LRIP7
Rel
1.0.3AALIS 1.0.2A
Legend
LRIP Task
FD or Sust. Task
S&T or future Investment
SDD Task
PHM Tracking Starts with 0.5
Initial Subsystems (K2 Candidates)(K3 Candidates) Experience‐Based Extensions, Improvements
Interfaces, Mx/Pilot Trning Lean On Demand
Interfaces/Procedures Reliability Based Prepositioning Health Based Sparing
Interfaces, Data/Procedures Initial Full Continuous Improvement Decision Support
Emerging Technology; Next‐Generation Models & Capabilities
FLM, Health Center, FUMS MEFL Enhanced MEFL Functional Assessment
Identify; Stakeholder Involvement Introduce Trial Transition
SBIR IRAD/PBL Influenced
Data Collection Evaluation JRMET/FRCAS FLM/RCMA Monitor/Check and Adjust CBM+ EHM
Development & Delivery• Delivery
– PHM SW
– HM Assessment
• Performance
• AMC/Prognostics
WO Generation, AFRS, Initial AMC CBM Differed/Opportunistic Robust Prognostics
USAF IOC USNavy IOC International IOC
SDDEnd
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Next Generation PHMOperational Stakeholders & Key Capabilities
– Enhanced PM Support– Enhanced Fleet Health Mgt
– Lean/On Demand Training– Health Based Inventory/SCM– Asset Prepositioning– Force Life Management
– RAM Enhancements– Targeted Tech Refresh/S&T– Rapid Life Alignment &
Extension
– Enable PBL Enhanced Features– Proactive Enterprise Decision
Support
– Health State Reporting to Pilot
– Parametric & Environmental Data Collection
– Asset Prepositioning/Downlink– Enhanced Aircraft and System Health
Status
– Functional Mission Assessment– Enhanced Mission, Operations and
Resource Scheduling– Active Fleet Management
– Enhanced Operational Decision Support
– Efficient Failure Resolution– Eliminate RTOK/CND– Anomaly Management
– Integrated Continuous Improvement and Case Maturation
– Health State Knowledge Discovery
– Enhanced Scheduling– Automated WO Generation/JTD and
Failure Resolution Cases– CBM, Opportunistic & Deferred Mxt– AMC/Prognostics
– Autonomic Decision Support Triggers
OperationsMaintenanceResource SchedulingAsset Allocation/Management
Warfighter Operations
MaintenanceSustaining EngineeringContinuous ImprovementLocal Logistic Support
Sustainment Operations
Development/OEMsServices/Program ManagementBusiness & Policy ManagersExtended Logistics Support
Enterprise Operations
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Key Attributes of Next Generation MxtIntegration and Balance
Sustainment Operations Warfighter Operations Enterprise Operations
PHMData/Information
ArchitectureTools & Processes
– End to End Improvement– Knowledge Discovery– Targeted Tech Refresh– OEM Supply– Extended Logistics– Fleet Health Management– Rapid Life Optimization
– Autonomic Decision Support– Warfighter Operations– Sustainment Operations– Enterprise Operations– Force Life Management– Balanced Resource Allocation
– Maintenance Efficiency – Expedient Failure Resolution– Anomaly Management – Targeted Removals
(CBM/Opportunistic/deferred Mxt)– Integrated Continuous Improvement
and Case Maturation– Integrated Case Based Maturation
– High Integration into Operations, Training, Supply & Support Systems
– Enhanced Scheduling– On Demand Training– Downlink– AMC/Prognostics
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Health Management Strategy DeploymentIdentifying Core Barriers to Success
Operational Health Support
System Design Decision Support
Performance Monitoring
Data Management
ContinuousImprovement
CommonOverarching Business/PM
Deliver Next Generation Health Management/Decision Support SolutionTrue‐NorthVision
FocusAreas
Sustainment OperationsWarfighter Operations Enterprise OperationsKeyPerspectives
Roadmap Provides Overarching “True‐North” Alignment & Tempo
Strengthen Stakeholder Advocacy• Education, Create Pull Factor, Roadshow, DemosDeliver the Capability• CONOPS, Design, Capabilities, Products Maturation PlanEnable Autonomic Logistics• Decision Support (Operations, Support, Business)• Logistics Transformation, Policies, Benefit Trade ModelsContinuous Improvement• Performance Monitoring, Maturation, S&T, Acquisition Strategy
‐ ‐ Long Term ‐ ‐Setting Direction• HM CONOPS, Implementation Plan, Thread DemosExecuting the Vision• Organization, Value/Cost Benefit, Future Dev, Roadshow • Interim HM Sustainment; Expectation MgtAssessment Approach• Data Mgt, Design Viability, Architecture Rvw, Capabilities/Req’t Delivery, TPMs/Performance Monitoring•Gaps/Barrier Identification and Product Delivery
‐ ‐ Near Term ‐ ‐ Strategic Deployment
Enhanced SustainmentDevelopment & Delivery Continuous ImprovementRoadmapFocus
Identifying Key Barriers to Success & Getting the Right Things Done!
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Broad Observations & Moving Forward Effectively
• Broad Observations– Achieving Our Vision Involves Multiple Disciplines and a High Degree of
Integration … that have to work towards a ‘common true north’– Single Program/Service Can Not Effectively Achieve Vision Alone– Key Experience Resides in Legacy Programs with Pockets of Excellence– Need Champions & Stakeholder Advocacy – “Create the Pull Factor”– Common/Fundamental Core Barriers Exist – Work Core Barriers Together
• Moving Forward Effectively– Adopt a DoD Enterprise Approach to Address & Resolve Core Barriers– Drive for an Alliance and Coalition Approach– Leverage Services and Program’s Resources
Tools, Processes, Lessons Learned, Expertise, Data, Schedule and Funding
– Provide Enhanced Capabilities into Established Programs– Key Enterprise Focus Areas
• Transition to Reengineered Logistics Decision Support Processes• Requirements Definition• Provide Benefit Trade Tools and Models• Education
Drive Towards 2020 with “20-20 Vision”
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Questions?
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Expected Benefits to Acquisition Strategy
Based on CDP CBAs
TODAY
O&SR&Dand
Production
JSF
O&S
R&Dand
Production
40-60%
Products (SW & Tools); HDRW; Processes;Analysis, Maturation and Sustaining Tasks
Key Attributes - Proactive Decision Support/Triggering, Health State Based; Autonomics; Planned Continuous Improvement; Near Real Time Updates;
Anomaly Management; No False Alarms
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Health ManagementNear-real Time Data Collection
Anomaly Indication Triggered by CRM
Operational HealthTrending &
Knowledge Discovery
RCM-like Decision Logic
Appropriate ActionsTaken
Performance Monitoring
Health ManagementContinuous Improvement FeedbackProcesses
#’s Acft
Verified Failure Reporting
Data Collecting & Trending Analysis
Appropriate ActionsTaken
R&M Metric Monitoring
RCM Decision LogicApplied
Health State Monitoring Reduces Fleet Impact from Degraded Systems
Max Aircraft Impacted
LegacyNext Generation
Early Degraded Near-Real TimeHealth State Indications
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
Legacy RCM Feedback Processes
ConfidenceBounds
Historical Data Predicted Trend
Trend AnalysiszEarly Indication ThresholdIntermediate Indication ThresholdImminent Failure Threshold
ConfidenceBounds
Historical Data TimePredicted Trend
Trend on Reliability (Verified Failures)
Trend on Current Health State
RCM Process Model
Applying RCM to Achieve Accelerated Continuous Improvement
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Assess Material ConditionDefinition
• Healthy - Operating Near Nominal Design Levels• Failure - Operation determined to be Below Performance Specification Threshold• Degradation - Measure of Movement Toward the Failure Threshold During Operation• Life Consumed – Delta from Initial Operating Condition and Current Nominal Operating Condition• Prognose Time to Failure – Prediction of the estimated time to failure based on Physics of Failure,
trending analysis and/or environmental factors• Life Remaining - Total design life less cumulative life consumed (Life limited components only)
PerformancePerformance Spec. Threshold (Failure Threshold)
Nominal Operating ConditionDegradation (Margin Decay)
Time
• AMC is defined as one or more of the following AS capabilities: 1) detect and monitor a LRC’s performance as related to healthy, failed, or degrading; 2) determine life consumed; 3) prognose (predict/estimate) time to failure*; and 4) determine life remaining* estimate.
• AMC is comprised of an on-board and off-board functional component.
*Off Board Capability, but may also be hosted on acft.