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Issue December 2016

DG RTD, A4, Analysis and monitoring of national research policies

NEWSLETTER on STI Data and Indicators

1. Eurostat data on the evolution of employment in the EU

On 13 December 2016 Eurostat published a news release

on the evolution of employment in the EU. Employment

in the EU in the third quarter 2016 increased by 0.2 %

compared to the second quarter and by 1.1% compared

with the same quarter of the previous year. Eurostat

estimates employment in the EU to have reached 232.5

million, not only higher than the pre-crisis level, but the

highest level ever recorded.

Portugal (+1.3%), Spain (+0.8%) and Luxembourg

(+0.7%) showed the highest growth compared to the

second quarter, while the highest decreases of

employment were observed in Latvia (-1.5%), Estonia (-

1.0%) and Bulgaria (-0.8%). Compared to the same

quarter of the previous year Malta (+3.8%) showed the

highest growth in employment, followed by Luxembourg

(+3.0%), Ireland and Spain ( both +2.8%). Employment

decreased in this period in Romania (-1.4%), Estonia (-

1.1%), Latvia (-1.1%) and Bulgaria (-1.0%).

More info: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7771961/2-13122016-AP-EN.pdf/66d95b9e-9ff8-45b3-b1ef-f99f0d6603e7

2. EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard 2016

On 1 December 2016 the Commission (JRC) published the 2016 edition of the EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard. The Scoreboard covers the 2500 companies investing the largest sums in R&D in the

world in the fiscal year 2015/16. The investments of these companies amounted to € 696 billion, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year and representing about 90% of R&D financed by business. The 100 biggest spenders alone account for 53% of the R&D expenditure of the top 2500 companies. Spending growth was driven by companies in the largest

spending sectors (ICT, health, auto), mostly representing high-tech industries. EU companies represent 27% of that spending, US companies 38.6%, Japanese companies 14.4% and Chinese companies 7.2%.

The German car manufacturer Volkswagen, as in the

year before, was the biggest investor worldwide in 2015/16 (€13.6 bn, +6.4%), followed by Samsung (€12.5 bn +8.6%), Intel (€11.1 bn, +21%), Alphabet (Google, € 11.1 bn, +16%) and Microsoft (€ 11.0 bn, +14.1%) Countries with a large number of companies on the list of 2500 top investors include the US (837) Japan

(356), China (327), Taiwan (111), South Korea (75) and Switzerland (58). The EU has 590 companies on the list (i.e. headquarter in an EU Member State), with the largest number in the UK (133), followed, by Germany (132), France (83) and the Netherlands (38).

Many central and eastern European countries, including Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, have no single company on the list. Luxembourg has three times more companies than all central and eastern European EU Member States together. As regards the amounts

invested in R&D, companies from Germany are in the lead in the EU (€ 69.8 bn), followed by companies based in France (€ 28.5 bn) and UK based companies (€ 28.2 bn).

More info: http://iri.jrc.ec.europa.eu/scoreboard16.html

3. Results of the OECD PISA study

On 6 December 2016 OECD released the results of the

2015 round of the PISA study. PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) is a 3-yearly

assessment of the reading, maths and science skills of 15-year-old pupils. The 2015 study focussed, as 9 years before, on science skills. 540,000 pupils in 72 countries and economies participated in the study. The study shows that only 12 countries/economies improved their performances in

science since 2006. Many Asian countries, economies and regions, such as Japan, Taiwan, Macao, Hong Kong and the Chinese regions that participated (Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong) are among the top performers in science with Singapore (556 score points, OECD average 483) outperforming all other countries. Canada also

performed relatively well.

The top EU (and OECD) performer is Estonia (534 score points), followed by Finland (531), Slovenia (513), the UK (509), Germany (509) and the Netherlands (509). The lowest performers in the EU include Bulgaria (446), Romania (435) and Cyprus (433).

Around 1 in 10 students in OECD countries (but 1 in 4 students in Singapore) performs at the highest level, while more than 1 in five students falls short of baseline science proficiency. Other key findings, as summarized by OECD:

'Gender differences in science tend to be smaller than

in reading and mathematics but, on average, in 33 countries and economies, the share of top performers

in science is larger among boys than among girls. Finland is the only country in which girls are more likely to be top performers than boys. One in four boys and girls reported that they expect to work in a science-related occupation but opt for very

different ones: girls mostly seek positions in the health sector and boys in becoming ICT professionals, scientists or engineers. Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Hong Kong (China) and Macao (China) achieve high levels of performance and equity in education outcomes.

Poorer students are 3 times more likely to be low

performers than wealthier students, and immigrant students are more than twice as likely as non-immigrants to be low achievers. How much time students spend learning and how

science is taught are even more strongly associated with science performance and the expectations of pursuing a science-related career than how well-equipped and staffed the science department is and science teachers’ qualifications.'

More info: http://www.oecd.org/pisa/

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4. OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

On 8 December 2016 OECD published the 2016 edition of

its two-yearly Science, Technology and Innovation

Outlook. The report highlights that megatrends such as

'ageing societies, climate change, health challenges and

growing digitisation are, among other factors expected to

shape future R&D agendas and the scope and scale of

future innovation demand'. The report expects

'technology to disrupt society with tremendous potential

but uncertain outcomes'.

The STI Outlook 2016 forecasts that public sector science

will continue to play leading roles in developing the new

knowledge and skills needed to nurture these

technological advances and to support their exploitation

in the wider economy.

However, the report shows that expenditures on public

R&D have flattened in the OECD after decades of growth.

Support to public R&D has shifted to universities, which

are at the same time increasingly reliant on private

funding. While less public support has gone to public

R&D, more R&D tax incentives were given to firms.

Overall, direct and indirect support to business R&D has

increased in most OECD countries (see chart below).

More info: http://www.oecd.org/sti/oecd-science-technology-and-innovation-outlook-25186167.htm

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5. WIPO World Intellectural Property Indicators 2016

On 23 November 2016 WIPO published World Intellectual Property Indicators 2016. The report shows that global patent applications rose to 2.9 million in 2015, an increase of 7.8% over 2014. China's patent office received 1.1 million filings, the fastest growth among the top 5 patent offices (+18.7%), and

more than twice the number filed at the USPTO and six times the number filed at the European Patent Office (EPO). Inventors based in China filed over 1 million applications, nearly twice as many as US based inventors (0.53 million). Chinese inventors are relatively home-based with only 4% of their patents filed abroad, while

US based inventors filed more than 40% of their patents abroad. Around 1.24 million patents were granted worldwide in 2015, up 5.2% on 2014. Growth was driven by an increase of grants in China, which issued 359,316

patents in 2015 to overtake the US (298,407) as the largest patent issuing office. About 10.6 million patents were in force in 2015, of which about a quarter in the US

(24.9% of total), 18.3% in Japan and 13.9% in China.

According to WIPO an estimated 6 million trademark applications covering 8.4 million classes were filed globally in 2015, an increase of 15.3% compared to 2014, the highest growth since 2000. Around 78% of global filing activity was accounted for by resident applicants who filed for protection in their own countries.

China saw by far the highest trademark filing activity in 2015 (2.83 million). It was followed by the US (517,297), the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO; 366,383), Japan (345,070) and India (289,843). Among the top 20 offices, Japan (+43%),

Italy (+32.6%), China (+27.4%), India (+21.9%) and South Korea (+13.9%) reported double-digit growth in

2015. Around 4.4 million trademark registrations covering 6.2 million classes were recorded worldwide in 2015. This was a 26.6% increase on 2014 and the fastest growth in over 15 years.

Global industrial design applications filed in 2015 grew by 2.3%, rebounding from a sharp decrease recorded in 2014, when filings declined strongly in China. Designers across the world filed 872,800 applications containing 1.1 million designs. Growth was driven by increases in applications filed in China, the Republic of Korea and the US. China’s office received applications

containing 569,059 designs, accounting for half of the world total. It was followed by the EUIPO (98,162), and the offices of South Korea (72,458), Germany (56,499) and Turkey (45,852). Among them, the Republic of Korea (+5.9%) and China (+0.8%) saw growth, while Germany (-7.5%), Turkey (-6%) and the EUIPO (-0.1%) saw lower filing activity in 2015 than in 2014. The

number of industrial designs registered worldwide increased by 21.3% in 2015, mainly due to strong growth in China.

More info: http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2016/article_0017.html

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6. Miscellaneous results from national data sources and studies

a) Germany: Stifterverband data show strong growth in business spending on R&D

On 12 December 2016 Stifterverband released 2015 data

for business R&D spending in Germany, based on the

results of an annual survey. According to these data

business R&D expenditure in Germany amounted to 62.4

billion in 2015, an increase of 9.5% compared to the

year before, when € 57 billion was invested. The new

figures are € 3 bn higher than the provisional data

published by Eurostat in November 2016. The new

results could push EU R&D intensity for 2015 from

2.03%, as currently shown by Eurostat to 2.05%

(Eurostat will update figures in March). Stifterverband

estimates that R&D intensity in Germany in 2015

(broadly) has reached the 2020 target of 3%. The car

industry was the sector that spent most on R&D, € 21.7

bn for research in companies (intramural) plus € 10.2 bn

for research carried out outside the company. The

Stifterverband data also show that research staff

employed by business has increased by 11.9% in

Germany in 2015 to reach 416,000 (in FTE).

More info: https://www.stifterverband.org/pressemitteilungen/2016_12_12_forschung_und_entwicklung

b) USA: California representing 30% of US business expenditure on R&D

Data released by the National Science Foundation on 30

September 2016 show that five US states accounted for

half of US business R&D expenditure in 2013. California

alone had 30% of US business R&D expenditure (77 bn $

out of 265 bn $). California's business R&D expenditure is

higher than that of Germany. Only the US as a whole,

China and Japan spend more than California. Business

R&D intensity in California amounted to 3.5% in 2013.

Other US states with a business R&D intensity of over 3%

include Washington (Microsoft), Michigan (car industry)

and Massachusetts (biotech/pharma). About 40% of US

States have a business R&D intensity of 0.5% or lower.

Data on total R&D intensity by US State are only

available until 2011. These data show that New Mexico,

the location of the Los Alamos National Lab (staff: over

10 000), has the highest R&D intensity of all US states

(7.6% in 2011), followed by Massachusetts (5.6%),

Washington (5.0%) and California (4.8%).

More info: https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2016/nsf16317/

7. Quotation check

"The cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years" Gordon Moore (*1929)

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore is known for Moore's law. In 1965 he found that the number of components such as transistors on an integrated circuit had doubled in the past every year and speculated that it would still do so in the

coming 10 years. In 1975 he revised that to a doubling every two years. Known today as Moore's law it almost became a self-fulfilling prophesy in the semiconductor industry, with strong impact on technological change, since

computing power increases in line with the number of transistors. The number of transistors on a microprocessor has increased a million-fold since the 1970s, from a few thousand to several billion today. Gordon Moore formulated a second law, stating that the cost of semiconductor chip plants is growing exponentially, doubling every four years. This is also known as Moore's second law or Rock's law (named after venture capitalist Arthur Rock). Driving forces are the need for increasingly sophisticated equipment and specific conditions for clean rooms, as transistors become smaller and wafers, from which chips are cut, are becoming bigger. An exponential growth in the costs of fabrication plants would lead to diminishing returns, slowing down the effect of Moore's first

law. Costs of chip fabrication plants increased from $ 14 million in the 1960s to $ 1.5 billion in 1995, i.e. by a factor of 100. According to the law they should have reached $ 50 billion by 2015. So far the most expensive plant is being built by Samsung in South Korea (opening in 2017) at a cost of 'only' $ 14 bn. Costs are hence still increasing, but more slowly than predicted by Moore's second law/Rock's law.

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Calendar of data releases and indicator based publications Update of: 20/12/2016 (grey= already published)

2016 Eurostat data updates Commission indicator

based reports

Data and indicator based

reports of other organisations

January Transparency International Corruption Perception Index

Bloomberg Innovation Index

February Tertiary attainment (2015, prov.)

High growth enterprises data (provisional, 2014)

IPR (patent 2013, CTM 2014 and RCD 2014)

Winter forecast (ECFIN)

DESI indicator (CNECT)

OECD R&D expenditure data

Excelacom Internet Minute

March R&D intensity (2014 update)

GBAORD final (2014)

She Figures (online version; RTD)

Science, Research and Innovation performance report (RTD)

European Patent Office , EPO annual results (2015)

Reuters Most Innov. Institutions

OICA world motor vehicle production data

April Education headline indicators (LFS)

May High-tech trade (2015)

Venture capital (2015)

Education enrolment, graduates

Knowledge-int. activities (2015)

Spring Forecast (ECFIN)

Skills forecast (Cedefop)

Invest Europe 2015 European Private Equity Report

Times Higher Ed. Reputations Ranking

IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook

June Education spending

Employment high-tech (2015)

HRST education inflows (2014)

Europe 2020 publication (ESTAT)

July IPR (Patents, 2013), Community Trademarks (2015), RC Designs (2015)

Innovation Union Scoreboard (GROW)

UNESCO UIS STI stats release

August Academic Ranking of World Universities (Shanghai)

WIPO/Cornell/INSEAD Global Innovation Index

September GBAORD (2015 preliminary)

Final high growth ent. data (2014)

Economic data on high-tech (2015)

WEF Global Competitiveness Index

OECD Education at a Glance

October World Bank Doing Business

November R&D intensity (2015 preliminary, 2014 final)

Knowledge-int. activities (2015)

Employment high-tech (2015)

IPR Statistics (CTM 2015 and RCD 2015)

Autumn Forecast (ECFIN)

Education Monitor (EAC)

Annual Growth Survey (ECFIN)

Top500.org: Top 500 Supercomputer list

December ICT household data (2016)

ICT enterprise data (2016)

HRST stocks (2015)

CIS 2014

Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard (JRC)

Joint Employment Report (EMPL)

WIPO World Intellectual Property Indicators

OECD STI Outlook (2-yearly)

BDI/Telekom (German) Innovation Indicator

Contact for more information: Richard Deiss (unit A4, Tel 64881), Dermot Lally (55614), Cristina Moise (97934)