Newland New Newsletter 27-11-2011

8/3/2019 Newland New Newsletter 27-11-2011

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Newland Securities LimitedPresents

Weekly Research Analysis(21st-25th November, 2011)

20/11/2011

By Newland Research Team

Contents:1. Last week performance review.

2. Weekly supports/resistances of some major stocks.

3. Weekly analysis of NIFTY and BANK NIFTY.

4. Weekly supports/resistances of NIFTY with Open Interest interpretation.

5. Monthly Trading Bands for December, 2011 series with important statistics.

6. Market review at a glance.

7. Top gainers and Top losers.

8. Newland Stocks scans for bullish/bearish stocks.

9. Newland Weekly Pick (4 stocks recommendations).

DATE: 27-11-2011


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Our Last Weeks Performance

DATE: 27-11-2011

We recommended buying in PANTALOON RETAIL. On the last day of

the week, this has crossed Rs.206.00 and made a superb rally withthe weekly high of Rs.238.80.. a weekly return of 15.92%!

JSW STEELwas advised to short below Rs.600.00 and it has posted aweekly low of Rs.535.40 (our final target was Rs.535.00!) .achievedweekly return of 10.83%!

We recommended to short SESA GOA below Rs.181.00 (previousweeks low)this counter has made a weekly low of Rs.165.35(weekly achievement of 9.04%)!

Our advice was to short SBI below Rs.1700.00. This has made a

weekly low of Rs.1627.25 which in turn produced a weekly return of 4.3%!


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Weekly Supports/Resistances on some major stocksSecurity Name OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE SUP2 SUP1 PIVOT RES1 RES2

ACC LTD 1145.15 1150.00 1097.45 1120.30 1070.03 1095.17 1122.58 1147.72 1175.13

AXIS BANK 960.00 977.85 921.10 967.25 898.65 932.95 955.40 989.70 1012.15

BAJAJ AUTO 1681.50 1698.75 1565.80 1639.25 1501.65 1570.45 1634.60 1703.40 1767.55

BHARAT PETROLEUM 522.00 527.35 486.60 518.65 470.12 494.38 510.87 535.13 551.62

BHARTI AIRTEL 384.00 395.80 354.80 375.15 334.25 354.70 375.25 395.70 416.25

BHEL 275.60 277.75 246.00 270.05 232.85 251.45 264.60 283.20 296.35

DLF 202.40 211.20 190.65 203.70 181.30 192.50 201.85 213.05 222.40

HCL TECHNOLOGIES 398.00 403.00 372.65 386.70 357.10 371.90 387.45 402.25 417.80

HDFC BANK 456.00 456.00 411.30 430.90 388.03 409.47 432.73 454.17 477.43

HDFC LTD 639.00 645.90 606.60 613.75 582.78 598.27 622.08 637.57 661.38

HEROMOTOCO 2181.00 2220.00 2023.00 2036.20 1896.07 1966.13 2093.07 2163.13 2290.07

HIND PETROLEUM 299.00 300.60 274.45 281.10 259.23 270.17 285.38 296.32 311.53

HIND UNILEVER 389.00 393.00 373.25 375.80 360.93 368.37 380.68 388.12 400.43

HINDALCO INDS 122.00 123.65 112.80 113.50 105.80 109.65 116.65 120.50 127.50

ICICI BANK 762.90 766.00 710.00 718.20 675.40 696.80 731.40 752.80 787.40

IDFC 111.00 111.00 101.25 106.50 96.50 101.50 106.25 111.25 116.00

INFY 2720.00 2764.90 2586.60 2599.70 2472.10 2535.90 2650.40 2714.20 2828.70

JAIPRAKASH ASSOC 62.25 64.30 58.80 60.70 55.77 58.23 61.27 63.73 66.77

JSW STEEL 609.80 609.80 535.40 555.85 492.62 524.23 567.02 598.63 641.42

LARSEN & TOUBRO 1249.00 1285.80 1174.25 1265.95 1130.45 1198.20 1242.00 1309.75 1353.55

LIC HOUSING FIN 220.00 222.95 209.15 212.55 201.08 206.82 214.88 220.62 228.68

MAHINDRA & MAHIN 731.00 744.40 681.20 706.25 647.42 676.83 710.62 740.03 773.82

MARUTI SUZUKI 939.00 999.00 931.00 949.95 891.98 920.97 959.98 988.97 1027.98

ONGC CORPN 261.00 262.00 241.75 251.90 231.63 241.77 251.88 262.02 272.13

POWER FINANCE CORP 159.90 169.30 156.55 161.95 149.85 155.90 162.60 168.65 175.35

RELIANCE INDS 800.00 804.45 751.00 753.80 716.30 735.05 769.75 788.50 823.20

STATE BANK 1723.00 1724.45 1627.25 1690.60 1583.57 1637.08 1680.77 1734.28 1777.97

TATA MOTORS 169.25 179.80 160.15 171.85 150.95 161.40 170.60 181.05 190.25

TATA STEEL 388.90 399.45 367.00 374.95 348.02 361.48 380.47 393.93 412.92

TCS 1085.00 1096.40 1041.00 1063.90 1011.70 1037.80 1067.10 1093.20 1122.50

DATE: 27-11-2011


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Daily Chart of Nifty

We told in our previous newsletter that if Nifty breaks expiry band, a

massive move can be expected. Last week Nifty breached its lowerexpiry band, i.e., 4790 and has ended this week with the weekly low of 4639.10 accompanied by the weekly loss of 195.75 points (week to weekand closing to closing basis). Like daily MACD, Weekly 5, 3 and 14, 3Stochastic both are in sell mode as previous week. Weekly AO oscillatorhas given a fresh sell signal below 0 line. Open interest interpretationsuggesting that again short position has been built up as OI increased by16.58% in the last week which clouded the sky for the next week.Weekly historical volatility value is 1.39 which is lower than the previousweek. In daily, the current value of historical volatility is 0.98 which isnear its mean. Weekly 14 period ADX value is 25 and in daily the sameADX shows the value of 26. In both timeframes, -DI is greater than the+DI which states that we are in a bearish trend. In accordance with OpenInterest interpretation December, 2011 series monthly bands havebecome stretched with the boundaries of 4400-5000 which againindicates high volatility in upcoming weeks. Below 4640, 4600 and 4550are immediate supports and 4728-4750, 4800-4826 are immediateresistance zones.

Weekly Analysis - Nifty

Daily Chart of Bank Nifty

As per our expectation expressed in our last weekly newsletter, Bank

Nifty has taken support from 8000 level. It has posted a weekly low of 8240.45 which causes the weekly loss of 361.65 points (week to weekand closing to closing basis). As previous week, MACD is in sell manner inboth weekly and daily timeframes. Weekly AO oscillator has given a freshsell signal below 0 line. In weekly basis, Open Interest favors bearishview. Above 8700, some sort of up move may be expected. Weeklyhistorical volatility value is 0.87 lower than the previous week. In daily,the current value of historical volatility is 0.94 suggesting the normalvolatility in daily chart. Weekly 14 period ADX value is 30 and in daily thesame ADX shows the same value of 30. In both timeframes, -DI is greaterthan the +DI which states that the current trend is bearish. Open Interestinterpretation also suggesting that a strong short position has been builtup as OI has been increased by 13.99% in the short side which, in turn,may produce a bearish result in the next week. Upper side resistancesare 8600, 8550, 8900, 9000, 9165, 9323, 9500 and lower level supportsare 8000 and 7900.

Weekly Analysis -Bank Nifty

DATE: 27-11-2011


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Weekly Supports/Resistances of Nifty

DATE CLOSE PRICE CC OI% Changein OI

21-11-2011 4778.35 -127.45 -7.1 2394850 7.6922-11-2011 4812.35 34 -11.75 1539450 4.5923-11-2011 4706.45 -105.9 -3.55 1497850 4.2724-11-2011 4756.45 50 10.95 2880100 7.88

25-11-2011 4710.05 -46.4 -24.25 1687800 7.91

Total: -195.75 -35.7 16.58* Interpretation:- Like previous week, strong Short Position has been built up in

NIFTY.

Open Interest Indication of Nifty

Our Advisory Products

Intraday Trading Recommendations

Swing Trading recommendations

Nifty Future Recommendations

Stock Future Recommendations

Stock & Nifty Options

recommendations

S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

4271 4506 4608 4741 4843 4975 5210

Monthly Bands for December,2011 series

STOCKNAME

LOWERBAND(CON)

LOWERBAND(OI)

UPPERBAND(CON)

UPPERBAND(OI)

NIFTY 4474 4405 4990 5054

RELIANCE 725 686 822 822STATE

BANK 1530 1530 1772 1836BHARTIAIRTEL 350 350 408 408TATASTEEL 342 342 399 412

INFY 2447 2510 2768 2840

Important statistics52 week high/low 0:85

Put Call ratio (based on open interest) 1.26

Volatility Index(India VIX-as per NSE website)

29.12

Advance /Decline ratio 807:620

Join Today In

DATE: 27-11-2011


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13/30 SMA bullish crossover onstocks (Daily charts )

13/30 SMA bearish crossover onstocks (Daily charts)

MACD bullish crossover on stocks(Daily charts)

MACD bearish crossover on stocks(Daily charts)

JINDAL STEEL POW CESC LTD DABUR (I) PETRONET LNG CUMMINS (I) POWERGRID CORPORATION LUPIN LABS

RAYMOND LTD UNION BANK

Stochastic Buy (Daily charts) Stochastic Sell (Daily charts) RSI Buy (Daily charts) RSI Sell (Daily charts)

ABB AIA ENGINEERING APOLLO TYRES

BHEL AMTEK AUTO

JSW STEEL CESC LTD

STATE BANK CUMMINS (I)

Market Review at a glanceIndices Close Pr. Close Gain/

Loss

* CNX 100 4608.30 4784.35 176.05

* CNX BANK INDEX 8488.60 8850.25 361.65

* CNX Infra 2379.25 2445.65 66.40

* CNX IT INDEX 5797.45 6017.80 220.35* CNX MIDCAP 6597.70 6639.45 41.75

* CNX NIFTY JUNIOR 9083.00 9268.20 185.20

* NIFTY MIDCAP 50 1892.00 1926.95 34.95

* S&P CNX 500 3742.20 3869.05 126.85

* S&P CNX DEFTY 3118.65 3315.55 196.90

* S&P CNX NIFTY 4710.05 4905.80 195.75

*BSE SENSEX 15695.43 16371.51 676.08

*CNX Realty 209.65 214.75 5.10

Top GainersStock Close Pr. Close Gain in %

AMTEK AUTO 121.75 94.80 28.43

PANTALOON RETAIL 233.95 198.40 17.92

SKUMARS NATIONWI 29.55 26.80 10.26

JET AIRWAYS 278.10 255.65 8.78

CUMMINS (I) 358.95 335.30 7.05

Top LosersStock Close Pr. Close Loss in %

AEGIS LOGISTICS 133.65 163.15 18.08

VIP INDS 116.70 134.30 13.11

STEEL AUTHORITY 82.10 94.30 12.94

ABAN OFFSHORE 345.15 394.85 12.59

HIND OIL EXPLORA 109.30 123.75 11.68

Newland Stocks Scan ( Bullish/Bearish) Stocks

DATE: 27-11-2011


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Newland Weekly Pick-1

KINGFISHER AIRLINES LTD (CMP-Rs.27.10)

KFA has managed to close above its down trend line withabove average volume. The box in volume pane showsclearly that something is going on in this counter. In the lastweek OI has been increased by 14.91% which is supportingits up move. So, go long above Rs. 28.50 with stop atRs.23.00 for the immediate target of Rs. 35.00.

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DATE: 27-11-2011


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CENTURY TEXTILEis continuing its bearish trend bybreaching the bearish flag with high volume as seen abovein the weekly chart. OI increased by 13.3% which indicatesnew short position has been created in this counter. Goshort below Rs .258 for the target of Rs. 230 -Rs.220 with thestop loss at Rs. 276 .

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DATE: 27-11-2011

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Note: - It is not necessary that stocks mentioned in Newland Weekly Pick section will perform within thecoming week. Time span may be longer than a week (Newland Research Team).

Disclaimer:Newland Securities Limited, and / or their associates may have a vested interest in some of the stocks mentioned in this newsletter and website and will be benefited if the prices move upor down. We give an unbiased and competent picture of trading opportunities and we do that to the best of o ur abilities. However, prices can move up as well as down due to number of factors, all of which are impossible for anyone to foresee. As Newland securities Limited, and /or their associates cannot accept any responsibility for any investment decision or trading

decision taken by clients on the basis of information contained herein .


LIC HOUSING FINANCE (CMP-Rs.212.55)

3 bearish weekly candles as shown by the above weeklychart of LIC HOUSING FINANCEindicating more down sidein this counter backed by the increase in OI by 12.61% .Daily MACD is in sell mode. Both 5, 3 and 14, 3 stochasticare in sell manner in daily and weekly timeframe. Shortposition may be initiated in this counter below Rs. 209 ,target Rs. 195 -Rs.185 with the stop loss at Rs. 219 .


VIDEOCON INDS (CMP-Rs.166.40)

The weekly chart of VIDEOCON INDSseems to look bearishwith a descending triangle pattern. Last week it hasgenerate a big selling volume with rising open interest17.88% price fall 2.45 cc flat 0.05. So, new short positionhas been built up. Moreover, last week closing was lowerthan the first week of July weekly high volume candlebelow. Short position may be initiated below Rs. 163 for thetarget of Rs. 145 -Rs.135 with stop loss at Rs. 173 .

DATE: 27-11-2011

Newland New Newsletter 27-11-2011

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