New York State Climate Action Plan - nysaccny.org · flooding and undertake managed relocation or...

Projected Climate Change Effects in New York State

Mark LoweryClimate Policy Analyst

Office of Climate Change

New York State

Department of Environmental Conservation

Observed & Predicted Changes

High Temperatures

U.S. Record highs outnumber record lows by 2:1.

Northeastern U.S. Temperature Change• Average annual NE temperature

up 1.8oF since 1899

• Business –as-usual emissions -

– Mid-century: NYC summers like Virginia’s are now

– 2100 NYC summers like South Carolina’s

• GHG emissions lower –

– Mid century: NYC summers like Maryland’s

– 2100: NYC summers like Virginia’s

Source: Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment


Less Snow and Ice

• decreasing snow cover (eventually)

• wetter and heavier snow

• more lake-effect snowSource: Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment

• late ice in, early ice out

• earlier spring snowmelt, earlier/more intense high river flows

U.S. Frost-Free Season Length

• more precipitation• more extreme storms• more flooding

Observed & Predicted Changes:

More FloodingChange in % of Global Precipitation Falling on Wettest Days

• hotter summers• drier soils• more frequent

short-term drought

Observed & Predicted Changes:

More Drought


More Extreme Tropical Cyclones•Atlantic hurricanes

•intensity to rise

•season length to increase 5-10 days per decade

•frequency of category 4&5 to double

Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation (ClimAID)

• Projections

– Average Temperature

– Average Precipitation

– Sea Level Rise

• Vulnerability Assessment– Agriculture

– Coastal zones

– Ecosystems

– Energy

– Public Health

– Telecommunications

– Transportation

– Water

– Extreme Heat

– Extreme Precipitation

– Coastal Flooding

ClimAID

Climate Projections

Projected annual temperature change – 2080s (F) Projected annual precipitation change – 2080s (%)

Avg. Temp. Inc. Avg. Precip. Inc.

2020s 1.5-3° F 5%

2050s 3 – 5.5°F 10%

2080s 4-9°F 15%

Sea Level Rise ProjectionsLower Hudson Valley & Long Island

2020s 2050s 2080s

Sea Level Rise 2 – 5 in. 7 – 12 in. 12-23 in.

Rapid Ice Melt Scenario

5 – 10 in. 19 – 29 in. 41 – 55 in.

Experts now recommend planning

for one meter of rise by 2100

(but it could be two meters).

Climate Action PlanInterim Report

www.nyclimatechange.us

Effects on Water Resources

• Increased localized flash floods in urban and hilly areas

• More-frequent flooding of water-related infrastructure

• Summer droughts affecting water supplies with limited storage

• Increased pollutant runoff

• Increased conflicts over competing uses

Draft Summary of Adaptation Technical Workgroup Recommendations 8-19-2010

WR1: Build greater resilience to projected climate change impacts into drinking water and wastewater infrastructure systems

• All regional and local water agencies and authorities should prepare detailed inventories and climate vulnerability assessments of critical infrastructure

• Update permit and design standards for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure to factor in projected climate impacts

• Investment of state monies in water infrastructure should be consistent with NYS policy to preserve water resources, reduce drought and flooding, and minimize risk to projected climate impacts


WR2: Adopt a statewide sustainable water management policy to preserve water quality and water quantity for human and natural communities in NYS

• Water-related permit programs and policies should minimize alterations and disruptions to the natural hydrologic cycle

• Facilitate and develop regional intermunicipal watershed management plans

• Support the design and implementation of regional vulnerability analyses for climate change

• Projections of future water availability, human use, and ecosystem requirements should be updated regularly


WR3: Allow “room for rivers.” Acknowledge the dynamic nature of rivers on the landscape and strive to reduce risk to critical infrastructure and human development as the risk of flooding increases with climate change

• Coordinate with key federal and local stakeholders to identify and map areas of greatest current risk from riverine flooding and erosion

• Reduce new development in areas at high risk of riverine flooding and undertake managed relocation or elevation of existing structures in these areas

• Work with federal agencies to restructure disaster recovery policies to reduce long-term risk


WR4: Incorporate water-related climate projections into state and local emergency management planning

• Emergency-response plans should incorporate best-available projections of climate-related impacts

• Establish appropriate legal mandates, secure stable funding, and develop guidance for vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning processes at the local and regional levels


Effects on Coastal Zones

• Permanent inundation of some low-lying areas, including urban and natural areas

• More-frequent and more-extensive flooding from storm surges

• Increased beach erosion

• Reduced fish/shellfish populations due to wetland loss

• Shifts to warmer-water species

• Saltwater intrusion into water supplies

Credit: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.. NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/).

NYC: 100-Year Flood – Every 10 Years

http://www.climatechoices.org/ne/

New York State SLR Task Force

• Established 2007,16 members, DEC chair

• Montauk to Troy

• Report delivered December 31, 2010 – Impacts of SLR

– 14 recommendations for protecting at-risk coastlines and habitats

How could sea level rise affect shoreline communities?

• Changes in recreational species, pests, invasive species, possible loss of natural flood protection systems

• NYS and local governments invest in and permit new infrastructure and development in high risk areas.

SLRTF Findings

• Natural features like wetlands at high risk

• Engineered structures more expensive than planned elevation or relocation

SLRTF Findings

Natural Habitat Benefits

• Physical structure for refuge, spawning, nursery, foraging

• Corridors

• Shoreline protection

• Contaminant and sediment trapping

• Nutrient cycling

• Increase dissolved oxygen

SLRTF General Approach

• Adopt SLR projections

• Define areas of greatest current vulnerability

• Define areas of greatest future vulnerability

• Reduce vulnerability in high risk areas and transition to long-term, cost-effective measures that emphasize natural flood protection systems

SLRTF Recommendations

• Adopt SLR projections

– Best available science

– Updated on a regular basis

– State agencies to approve, adopt, and incorporate into planning

• Define areas of greatest current vulnerability

– FEMA coastal high hazard areas

– Basis for additional review under state regulatory authority and guidance (SEQRA, Tidal Wetlands Act, etc.)


– Map areas at greatest risk from SLR and storm surge and sites of potential wetland migration

– Develop maps and tools for local governments

– Basis for additional review




– Map areas at greatest risk from SLR and storm surge and sites of potential wetland migration

– Develop maps and tools for local governments

– Basis for additional review under state regulatory authority and guidance (SEQRA, Tidal Wetlands Act, etc.)


Foster consistent and coherent climate change adaptation within NYS coastal areas by taking the following actions consistent with those of the NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force

CZ1: Adopt sea level rise and flood recurrence interval projections

CZ2: Integrate sea level rise and flood recurrence interval projections into all relevant planning activities

CZ3: Identify and map areas of greatest risk from sea level rise and coastal storms


CZ4: Reduce vulnerability in coastal areas at risk from sea level rise and storms; support increased reliance on non-structural measures and natural protective features to reduce impacts from coastal hazards

CZ5: Develop a long-term interagency mechanism to regularly evaluate climate change science, set research priorities, coordinate efforts, and measure progress


Effects on Public Health

• Increased heat-related illness and death

• Decreased cold-related death

• Increased cardiovascular and respiratory illness

• More cases of allergies and asthma

• Increases in insect-borne diseases

• Disruptions of water supply and quality

• Disruptions of emergency services


PH1: Improve/establish robust mechanisms to reduce the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality in New York State

• Education and outreach activities• Assess adequacy of existing heat warning systems and

cooling center programs• Coordinate with utilities to develop an approach to address

the public health needs resulting from power outages associated with extreme heat events

• Establish additional networks to identify and assist vulnerable populations

• Develop and implement a statewide “Green Cool-down Plan” to reduce the heat-island effect


PH2: Educate, empower, and engage all New Yorkers to foster better understanding of the public health consequences of climate and take actions to reduce or eliminate those consequences

• Raise awareness of the public health significance of climate change

• Work with communities to create effective outreach materials focused on vulnerable and/or hard-to-reach populations

• Identify key health and mental health care providers for training and capacity building

• Establish sustained community dialogues


PH3: Assess and improve the capacity of existing public health preparedness, response and recovery programs to respond to climate-related impacts and direct resources where needed

• Assess and enhance the capacity of existing preparedness, response, and recovery programs

• Better integrate existing telecommunications technology and social networking into early warning and evacuation systems


PH4: Build community resilience and integrated public health capacity to reduce human health impacts of climate change

• Consider public health-related impacts of climate change in planning, programs, policies, and regulations

• Increase community resilience• Require that emergency preparedness plans include

coordination and communication among critical stakeholders


PH5: Evaluate and enhance, as necessary, the capacity of existing surveillance programs for vector-, food-, and water-borne diseases and disease-causing agents to respond to the anticipated climate change-related increase in such public health threats

• Evaluate and enhance surveillance of disease and disease-causing agents, and the capacity of control programs

• Provide necessary assistance to local governments• Expand monitoring and research capacity


PH6: Implement the Public Health Recommendations Proposed by the Sea Level Rise Task Force

• Assess and prepare for public health risks associated with hazards of sea level rise

PH7: Conduct and support research on the public health consequences of climate change and on the effectiveness of public health adaptation strategies

• Develop a priority research agenda• Develop methods to assess public health-related climate

change adaptation programs


Public Health


Effects on Agriculture

• Reduced yield/quality of some crops

• Increased frost/freeze damage

• Increased pressure from weeds, insects, and disease

• Reduced dairy production

• Longer growing season


Incorporate anticipated increases in the incidence of weeds, diseases, and insect threats due to climate change in current detection, monitoring and integrated pest management efforts

Evaluate and develop mechanisms to more effectively protect livestock from the effects of greater temperature variability and extremes

Support research, development and deployment of adaptation strategies that include integrated, comprehensive approaches that simultaneously manage on-farm GHG emissions

August 25, 2010 39


Ag1: Incorporate anticipated increases in the incidence of weeds, diseases, and insect threats due to climate change in current detection, monitoring and integrated pest management efforts

• Evaluate the capacity of existing state and local programs to respond to the anticipated consequences of climate change

• Develop coordinated protocols and multiple response tactics


Ag2: Evaluate and develop mechanisms to more effectively protect livestock from the effects of greater temperature variability and extremes

• Channel appropriate resources to continued research, development, and deployment of livestock protection measures and techniques

• Support the increased installation of energy-efficient cooling systems and other structural or mechanical interventions, and support on-farm generation of renewable energy and energy-efficient systems


Effects on Ecosystems

• Changes in timing and abundance of food supply

• Increased pressure from pests, disease, and invasive species

• Widespread shifts in species composition

• Loss of some forest and plant communities

•Earlier timing for migration,

germination, reproduction

•Potential decoupling

predators and prey

pollinators and flowers

herbivores and food

•Increased energy demands

during hibernation


Phenology

•Southern invasives, e.g., kudzu

•Diseases, e.g., epizootic hemorrhagic disease,

west Nile virus

•Cascading effects:spread of HWA => decline of hemlocks =>

warming of streams => decline in trout


Invasives, Pests and Diseases

• High altitude habitats• Wetlands• Low-lying coastal areas, lakeshore habitats• Cold-water fisheries• Limited capacity to migrate?


Habitat Loss

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/5NE.pdf

Observed and Predicted Changes

Community Composition


Eco1: Implement recommendations of the Invasive Species Task Force, and continue the Invasive Species Council, Invasive Species Advisory Committee, and Partnerships for Regional Invasive Species Management (PRISMs)

Eco2: Incorporate adaptive management principles, techniques, and approaches into New York State’s natural resource management policies and programs• Undertake an adaptive management approach that factors

climate change, ecosystem function, services and biodiversity into decision making efforts

• Manage select state forest lands as demonstration areas for adaptive forest management targeted at maintaining landscape diversity and forest resilience


Eco3: Protect the stability and function of stream and river systems to accommodate changing climate conditions

• Maintain and improve aquatic connectivity• Increase the protection of in-stream habitat features• Remove pollutants from runoff entering streams and reduce

thermal shock• Maintain hydrologic flows consistent with the needs of fish and

wildlife and the functions of streams and rivers


Eco4: : Develop a research and monitoring plan to detect, record, and analyze changes in species, habitat composition, natural cycles, and fish and wildlife health, and address current and future threats in changing climate conditions

• Gather existing data on baseline condition of species, habitats, and population trends

• Identify key stressors to inform management decisions and abate threats• Conduct a vulnerability analyses of species and habitats• Identify data gaps and research needs• Develop and implement a monitoring plan, and provide adequate

resources to implement the plan • Identify and implement conservation strategies to inform adaptive

management• Develop and rehearse a concerted disease response plan


Eco5: Develop and implement an education and outreach strategy on climate change impacts to natural areas and ecosystem services important to human communities, with a particular emphasis on key stakeholder groups such as students, landowners, and local governments

• Promote the early incorporation of climate change science as a component of general education curricula

• Support outreach to private landowners and land managers to advance climate-smart land management practices


Eco6: Develop and implement a comprehensive strategy to identify, protect, and manage important migratory and dispersal corridors and habitat reserves necessary to help sustain biodiversity in a changing climate

• Conduct a gap analysis to identify critical corridors for movement of fish and wildlife

• Identify parcels that could be purchased• Incorporate additional components of a system of corridors as part

of land conservation programs• Consider new legislation to encourage conservation of land for

ecosystem services


Effects on Transportation

• More-frequent and more-extensive flooding from storm surges and heavy-precipitation events

• Degradation of infrastructure materials due to heat

• More road damage due to changing freeze/thaw cycles

• Longer Great Lakes shipping season

• Problems surrounding ice storms and lake-effect snow


Tr1: Encourage all regional and local transportation agencies and authorities, including municipalities with jurisdiction over transportation infrastructure, to prepare detailed inventories and climate vulnerability assessments of critical transportation infrastructure and corridors within their jurisdictions

• Designate key transportation corridors• Base vulnerability assessments on climate projections

adopted by NYS; include analyses of financial and social impacts


Tr2: Prioritize transportation infrastructure that is essential for emergency preparedness and response capabilities

• Direct funding as available for adaptive changes to critical transportation routes used for emergency preparedness and response that are at greatest risk from climate impacts


Tr3: Incorporate state adopted climate change projections into all relevant planning, design, and operational decision-making within New York State’s transportation sector

• Develop specific design criteria and operational guidance based on climate change projections

• Stormwater management techniques and approaches should be incorporated into existing contributors and across all sectors

• Help local governments implement adaptive measures for priority transportation infrastructure


Tr4: Incorporate official climate projections into the state's Transportation Master Plan

• Include climate-change projections in planning for key transportation infrastructure, for the entire life of each element


Tr5: Determine the transportation modes and facility designs for freight and passenger transport, that are most resilient to climate change, to appropriately influence investment decisions in new structures and upgrades

• Consider infrastructure investments toward transportation modes, structures, and facilities in accordance with climate adaptation planning processes

• Infrastructure investments should be designed and constructed to protect and preserve natural resources and ecosystems that provide essential climate adaptation services or benefits


Tr6: NYS transportation investments must be consistent with Smart Growth/Transit Oriented Development principles. Smart Growth will reduce development pressures on natural systems and limit the size of the transportation footprint, thereby reducing exposure to climate change impacts.

• Priority infrastructure investments should be assessed for their ability to implement the long-term vision for transportation

• Appropriate metrics should be used consistently in project evaluation• Align state support for local transportation investments with smart

growth policies• Emphasize transit-oriented development and smart-growth principles for

all transportation and land-use planning• Discourage single-occupancy-vehicle travel in favor of shared modes


Effects on Telecommunication and Information Infrastructure

• Increased flooding of infrastructure

• Increased communication line failures due to storms


Com1: Create and foster opportunities where communications infrastructure can become more independent of the main electrical grid

• Network diversification is vital for adapting the communications sector to an ever changing environment

Com2: Fiber optic cables should be installed in areas that are not at high risk of flooding or sea level rise

• Many parts of communications infrastructure are susceptible to climate change


Com3: A shift towards a more distributed and isolated switching network should be encouraged

• By isolating network areas, it is possible to shutdown different areas without losing an entire network

Com4: Given the increased likelihood of cell tower failure resulting from more frequent extreme wind events, back-up systems should readily be accessible for use


Com5: Communication centers that are in zones at high risk of flooding and sea level rise should be identified and potentially relocated

• Flooding, sea level rise, and storm surges are threats that could easily devastate communication centers

Com6: Wireless services should continue to expand, even out into less populated areas

• Expansion of wireless services, which tend to be more resilient to climate change, would raise system redundancy


Com7: ‘Smart grid’ development should be encouraged in order to enable reduction of power consumption during peak hours of the day (when energy usage is greatest)

• Smart grids also can reduce consumer costs and help the communications sector become more independent of the main electrical grid.

Com8: Carriers and other communication service providers could be required to show how they are abiding by the FCC’s standards


Effects on Energy

• Increased cooling demand and peak demand

• Decreased heating demand

• Temperature effects on power-plant efficiency

• Increased urban heat island effect

• Reduced weather-related supply chain problems

• Drought effects on hydropower

• Indirect financial impacts due to changing energy prices and increased demand


En1: Ensure the accuracy of electric demand and peak demand forecasting for planning purposes

• Ensure that regional long-term electric demand forecasts incorporate climate-change projections

• Plan for off-setting regional demand growth through local energy efficiency measures, distributed generation and smart grid technologies


En2: Build the resilience of utilities and energy providers to extreme storm events and other climate-related impacts

• Ensure that climate-change projections are incorporated into state and regional emergency-response plans

• Develop detailed statewide maps identifying areas at high risk from storm and flood damage

• Survey and assess utility industry best practices for building resilience to climate change

Local Adaptation – No Regrets• Community Outreach

– Conduct community education

– Learn about community adaptation concerns

– Conduct open and transparent adaptation planning processes

• Emergency Planning and Response– Maintain emergency action plans

– Develop flood and heat warning systems

– Identify and assist vulnerable populations

• Ecosystem Resilience– Protect and expand natural ecosystems

– Restore streams to natural state, re-vegetate banks

– Address pest and disease threats

Local Hazard – Coastal Flooding• Discourage development in projected floodplain

• Encourage relocation out of floodplain

• Provide room for migration of critical habitats

• Emphasize reliance on natural and non-structural protective measures

• Discourage shoreline hardening

• Evaluate risks to critical infrastructure in the floodplain; relocate or protect services as necessary to sustain community services

• Promote sustainable shoreline-erosion control

• See the State Sea Level Rise Task Force report for details

Local Hazard – Heavy Downpours• Reduce runoff from impervious surfaces by adopting stronger

stormwater regulations and encouraging smart-growth practices

• Conserve natural features such as wetlands and riparian areas for stormwater storage and conveyance

• Upgrade stormwater management infrastructure to handle increased demand

• Increase setback requirements for buildings near riverbanks to at least 75 feet

• Increase development setbacks from stream sides to 300 feet

• Create financial incentives to avoid development in flood-prone areas and/or create disincentives to such development

• Require “No Adverse Impact” standards to ensure that activities do not change the floodwater storage capacity of wetlands and floodplains and do not increase the flow velocity of streams

• Inventory wastewater drinking water and wastewater infrastructure and conduct climate vulnerability assessments

Local Hazard – Heat Waves & Drought

• Encourage practices that provide natural cooling of buildings

• Reduce the urban heat-island effect by increasing green spaces and roofs

• Increase the number of community facilities with air conditioning or pools

• Develop emergency response plans

• Develop a drought-management plan

• Evaluate drinking-water storage capacity and determine resiliency

• Protect your community from wildland fires by becoming FIREWISE

Adaptation Planning Resources

• Ecosystem-Based Management Tools Network

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Digital Coast

• The Nature Conservancy : Coastal Resilience mapping tool

• Environmental Protection Agency – Climate Change Community Toolbox

– Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool

– Smart Growth for Coastal and Waterfront Communities

– Adaptation Planning Guide for Estuaries

– Climate Ready Estuaries Toolkit

– Excessive Heat Events Guidebook

– Climate Ready Water Utilities

– CREAT

Office of Climate Change

New York State Department of

Environmental Conservation

625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233-1030

(518) 402-8448,

[email protected]

www.dec.ny.gov/energy/44992.htm

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