Dr. Young Tae KIM

Secretary-General of ITF

27 October 2017

New Transport for the New Digital Age

What a shock !!! 2

A.I.: “Self-learning capacity”

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Unless it has a self-learning capacity, it’s a kind of high-

performance machine (A.I. vs. machine)

‘It’ can play a useful role in (economically) rational

decision making process first. But it can also have some

emotional aspects of human beings step by step

(imitation)

It can be good because it can solve the problem of

information asymmetry

It can be bad because it can make people subject to

other beings (“Escape from Freedom”)

Some people might opt for “Back to the Past”

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Some points to share

Improvement in the transport sector is largely attributable to technological development, especially in digital sector

Transport in the past Transport of today

Modal

Supply-driven

Government-led

Hardware

Clear identity of the sector

Conventional, Manual

Multimodal, Intermodal

Demand-driven

PPP

Software

Multidimensional

Automation

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Helps to identify O/D and to make demand-responsive policies

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Helps to relax

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Helps to economise and to go door-to-door (c.f: buxi, taxibus)

Benefits that we can imagine…

Economical Sustainable Inclusive

and Safe…!!!

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Opportunities and Challenges

Technological aspect Continue to get better

Industrial aspect

Conflict between existing

modes and new modes

(licensing system, political

influence, etc.)

Policy or Institutional aspect

Gap between technological

development and institutional

evolution, ethical issues, etc.

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☞ International organisations like ITF can

play a crucial role in sharing best practices and

leading core discussions

Reflections on the Labour aspect

Optimist Pessimist

a. Schumpeter: Creative destruction of industries and job / Innovation b. Autor, Katz: Technology created more jobs than it destroyed c. Adam Smith: Self- adjustment of market

a. Brynjolfsson & McAfee: Technology is destroying jobs faster than creating them

b. Vernor Vinge (sci-fi writer): Computers are smarter than humans

People have a tendency to focus on job destruction,

rather than on job creation (dual aspect)

This problem is related to overall restructuring of

employment market (integrated aspect)

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Jobs threatened by automation

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Source: Frey and Osborne (2013, p. 37)

• Frey and Osborne (2013) developed a probability of automation for 700 occupations

Jobs accounting for 47% of current employments in

US are at high risk of automation in coming decades

In the transport sector

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Destruction Creation

- Driver - Ticket seller - Ticket controller, etc.

- Trip planner - Transport coordinator - System developer - Security expert - Supply chain manager - Freight forwarder, etc.

Remaining questions:

- How many drivers will not be needed for the driving task?

- What is the demographic and skills profile of these drivers?

- What are the opportunities within the industry?

- What are the other opportunities outside the sector?

- How should various actors plan this pathway?

Cases of < Email vs. Post office >, < ATM vs. Bank

branch office >

Jobs requiring heuristic and insightful approaches are

hard to be done by machines

People will be more and more interested in value

adding work in the long run

Multidimensional work combined with different sectors

will be prevailing

It is a matter of time: short-term vs. long-term

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No need to be too pessimistic

Potential responses

Temporary permit system

to manage transition

Determining rate of

deployment of driverless

trucks

Revenues from permit sales

to fund retraining

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Thank you