NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING Sam Swaminathan Change There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years,...

NEW TIMESNEW TIMESNEEDNEED

NEW THINKINGNEW THINKING

Sam Swaminathan

ChangeChange

• There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years, except during the last 100 years.

• Innovation came from the village blacksmith, baker, butcher, barber, and banker.

• Suddenly, the density of connections has grown and so the range of ideas has grown too.

• Web is fastest-adopted technology in history

• Displacing traditional sources of information and interaction

• Web is becoming a key resource for: news, information, commerce classroom education, distance

learning, social networking job searching, workplace interaction civic participation

The Future is the Web

The Future is the Web

• Limited number of full servicetelecommunications companies slug itout for market share.

• Demand is mainly for basic voice anddata services

• With little market growth, focus fortelcos is on cost cutting andconservative capital investment.

Visioning the Future…. Visioning the Future….

Proliferation of small niche focusedcarriers and retailers in an openderegulated market.

• Demand for advanced productsand services fails to materialise.

• Fierce price competition pushesnetwork services towardscommodity status

Nature and scope of demand

Ind

ust

ry

Str

uct

ure

Open deregulated industry withmany competitors.

• Explosive demand for convergentproducts and services breaksdown industry boundaries

• Cross industry alliances formed toprovide high value packagedsolutions.

• Consolidated industry dominated by alimited number of very large integratedConvergent companies.

• Strong growth in demand for valueadded services and sophisticatedcontent.

• Partnerships with government toachieve public policy goals.

Future ServicesFuture Services

• Key areas of evolution:– User interface [VR, handwriting recognition]– Functionality [PDA capabilities, attachable

modules/components]– Level of intelligence [computing power,

processing speeds]– Power management [better batteries, fuel

cells]

Non-human comms.Non-human comms.

• The future addressable market will no longer be tied to human population growth and penetration

• Unknown ramifications of machine-to-machine comms. In terms of customer service, network traffic, billing demands..

BIG SCIENCE – 1900s : 1950s

MARKETING – 1950s : 1990s

INNOVATION – 2000 - Leaping again and again against precedent

The Evolution of BusinessThe Evolution of Business

The New RealityThe New Reality

• The age of access makes celebrity self-attainable

• Growth in the economic value of information sharing, and decline in the value of information withholding

• The miniaturization of time• From mass consciousness to individual

realities• Disappearance of borders between nations,

peoples, between work and leisure

Sam’s Rules of EngagementSam’s Rules of Engagement


1. Dare to Dream and Do1. Dare to Dream and Do

• The distance between what we can imagine and what we can accomplish is narrowing relentlessly. Dreams and reality were never so near!

• Francis Fukuyama is dead. Long live Fukuyama. We now possess the power to interrupt history. Don’t let the future catch you flat-footed.


• We need more daring dreams in the areas of :• Corruption control• Racism and discrimination• Political accountability• Sycophancy• Education and Higher Research• Power generation and distribution• Water management• Affordable health care• Sanitation and cleanliness• Mass transportation – air, water, ground


• The IPL was a fantastic dream – it even has some originality

• Isn’t it time Indians invented more original stuff like the NANO?

• Isn’t it time India started serious work on finding solutions to her problems?

• Our state and central governments have neither the will nor the capability. Businesses must step in.



2. Know that time has 2. Know that time has shrunkshrunk

The Information AgeThe Information Age“It took centuries for information about the smelting of ore to cross a single continent and bring about the Iron Age. During the time of sailing ships, it took years for that which was known to become that which was shared. When man stepped on the moon, it was known and seen in every corner of the globe 1.4 seconds later - hopelessly slow by today’s standards.”

- James Burke

Internet banking : Traditional banking

1 : 100When you take away 99% of the cost structure, you change the structure of competition.

Competitive StructuresCompetitive Structures

Internet TimeInternet Time

• The windows of opportunities open and close with great speed today – they are rarely available for a few weeks; often they close in days. They resemble the fluttering wings of a butterfly.

“We can’t wait for evolution: three million years to grow a lung, another twenty to learn to walk upright, sixty more to grasp a spear, ten more to light a fire.” – Peter Senge


We need to speed corporate evolution.


New Competencies• Speed• Candor


3. Know that the scale of 3. Know that the scale of everything has changedeverything has changed

• Decoding a human gene: $m - $100

• 1 megabyte of data storage: $100s - >$0

• The share price of Google, Apple, Research in Motion, gold, steel, …

• Intel’s $468m haircut

• From punctuated equilibrium to pulsating disequilibrium


US Presidential Election Costs

1996 $448.9 million

2000 $649.5 million

2004 $1.01 billion

2008 ??


WORD OF MOUSE



4. Recognize that we live 4. Recognize that we live in a time of abundance, in a time of abundance,

not scarcitynot scarcity

• Abundance everywhere

• Abundance of information

• Abundance of choice for the consumer

• Abundance of capitalists- 3b and counting

• South Korea filed 67 times more patents in 1998 than it did in 1985

• Hyundai’s Sonata has proven to be as good as the BMW [at a fraction of the cost!] – JD Powers customer satisfaction survey


RankCompanyRevenues($ millions)

Profits($ millions)

1 Wal-Mart Stores 378,799 [351,139] 12,731 [11,284]2 Exxon Mobil 372,824 40,6103 Chevron 210,783 18,6884 General Motors 182,347 -38,7325 ConocoPhillips 178,558 11,8916 General Electric 176,656 22,2087 Ford Motor 172,468 -2,7238 Citigroup 159,229 3,6179 Bank of America Corp. 119,190 14,98210 AT&T 118,928 11,95111 Berkshire Hathaway 118,245 13,21312 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 116,353 15,36513 American International Group 110,064 6,20014 Hewlett-Packard 104,286 7,264

15 International Business Machines

98,786 10,418

16 Valero Energy 96,758 5,23417 Verizon Communications 93,775 5,52118 McKesson 93,574 91319 Cardinal Health 88,364 1,93120 Goldman Sachs Group 87,968 11,599

FORTUNE 500

3 billion new capitalists

NEW YORK: The 27-storey skyscraper being built in Mumbai by Mukesh Ambani, the richest person in India, could be the world's largest and costliest home with a price-tag nearing two billion dollar, according to Forbes magazine.

"When the Ambani residence is finished in January, completing a four-year process, it will be 550 feet high with 4,00,000 square feet of interior space," Forbes said in a report on its website.

• 1 billion in 1804

• 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later)

• 3 billion in 1960 ( 33 years later)




WORLD POPULATION

• Many of the world's poorest countries were doing worse in 2005 than they were 15 years ago, a major UN report says

• Unless the international community steps in, the poorest nations will continue on a downhill trend even as others progress – UNDP

• It isn’t about scarcity - it is about feast and famine.

• This opens up huge new opportunities for creating wealth in new areas in new ways.



5. Know that your business 5. Know that your business is under relentless attackis under relentless attack

“Mr. Watson -- come here -- I want to see you” - March 10, 1876


6. Admit that what you know 6. Admit that what you know today will be worthless today will be worthless tomorrowtomorrow

The esse

nce of in

dustrial m

ight

The esse

nce of in

dustrial m

ight

Today’s unlikely Gurus

Michael Furdyk [18] & Jennifer Corriero [20]

• They will challenge any prescription they are given.

• They have high expectations of the technology’s performance – and little tolerance for it when it disappoints. They won’t give it a second chance.

• They differ dramatically not just from previous generations but also from each other.

The NetGennersThe NetGenners

77 Steps to Lifelong Learning Steps to Lifelong Learning

1. Write your resume today.

2. Give it to a headhunter, and find out what you may be worth in the talent market.

3. Compare this with what you are being paid today.

4. If you are getting more, get your gun.

5. If you are getting less, feel happy – you are safe.

6. After 6 months, write your resume again.

7. If both resumes are similar, go get your gun.


7. Forget about being in 7. Forget about being in controlcontrol


FromFromSpan of ControlSpan of Control

totoSpan of InfluenceSpan of Influence

Cooperation Collaboration Conjugation

DEMOCRATIZATION


LEADER =

MentorCoachTeacherCheer Leader


8. Expect the unexpected8. Expect the unexpected

• When so many minds are linked together, thanks to the Internet, the abnormal takes on the garb of the normal.

• The breadth of human imagination has to undergo serious recalibration.


• The FAA is experimenting with the concept of allowing aircraft to talk to one another directly to determine their flight paths.

• What might broadband do to broadthought? An explosion in human communications will give rise to an explosion in human relationships.

• This explosion will make an incredible number of unexpected things to move into the realm of the routinely expected.

• More dreams will emerge – more radical, more powerful…


9. Know that customer loyalty has new meaning.

10. Recognize that this is an age of paradox.

11. Prepare to deal with new forms of human relationships.

12. Know that stock options and profit sharing are not enough.


13. Understand that leaders cannot act alone.

14. Recognize that empowerment is not a dirty word.

15. Beware – women have arrived at the top.


• In two generations, we have shifted from a society that nearly sanctioned stability to one that can barely sit still for a half-hour sitcom, and then only with channel-grazer in hand!

• MTV video rhythms are a reflection of the jangling, quick-cut internal rhythms of our lives today.

The New SocietyThe New Society

• Access creates globalism which disrupts political systems by making borders obsolete.Then the ideals that underlie nationhood – patriotism, democracy, the state, the melting pot, unification, responsible participation – get relegated to the junk heap of history.

The Age of AccessThe Age of Access

• No company that wishes to serve mass markets can hope to survive without carrying out serious demographic studies. Learn how and where populations are changing. There will likely be lot fewer

Italians and Germans by

the year 2060!

The FutureThe Future

• There will be fewer people alive than there are today.

• The world’s population will be concentrated within 500 miles of the equator.

• The average human life span will be 300 years.

• Those who marry will do so at least three times in their lifetimes.


• Capital punishment will consist of artificially aging the criminal.

• There will be no money standard.• The answer to the question “Where are you

from?” will be “Earth”.• Driven by total connectivity, the greatest

threat could be a lack of genetic variation.


• The five things anyone can never have too much of will be unchanged from the time Aristotle first identified them – health, knowledge, self-esteem, friends, and love.

• One thing no one can live without will remain as before – HOPE.


• In the ultimate analysis, there is no new economy or old economy. There is just one Global E-conomy. This does not mean that we abandon traditional management concepts. It means we adapt them to the new realities, to fit the way business operates today.

The Future is already hereThe Future is already here

The Network Is The FutureThe Network Is The Future

Brought to you by

Sam Swaminathan

Center for Creative Thinking

http://www.ccthinking.com

NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING Sam Swaminathan Change There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years,...

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