The Spiritual Significance of Becoming Invisible, by Michael Mamas
New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
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Lecture L07 BECOMING INVISIBLE
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In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.
Transcript of New Technology Lecture L07 Becoming Invisible
Lecture L07 BECOMING INVISIBLE
TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline starts
Hype Curve
Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting
The Hype Cycle A graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies
NASDAQ January 2000
The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ January 2000
The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ January 2000
The Internet Bubble
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
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Theory of Predicting the FutureAnderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future!
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:
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1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
The Railway Bubble
Railway Stock in Britain The value of railway stock grew 4 fold from 1826 to 1846 Many companies, heavy over-‐investment The bubble burst 1846
The Internet Bubble
Shifting focus
TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Computers are still pretty complicated technology
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Consumer Devices
The Computer and the Internet
disappear
Netbooks
Price point is $300 25% of laptop sales 25-‐30 million units in 2009
ChromebookSamsung Chomebook $249 !
16 GB Solid state drive 100 GB Cloud Storage
PC sales decline by 10% but Chromebooks climb 112%
Tablets
Explosion in tabletsales
Consumerazion
Where is the C-‐drive?
Source: IDC http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/05/28/tablets-to-outshippcs-idc-report/
DESIGN
As technology matures, design becomes important
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures
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The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services
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Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are copies of the communication
structures of these organisations
Conway’s Law
To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?
Technology
Business Design
Technology Life Cycle
When will the earlymajority pragmatics start buying a product? !
The value of the productis sufficiently great orgood-‐enough
Technology Life Cycle Early in the cycle, technology is important When technology becomes good enough
Value becomes more important Design becomes more important Technology is no longer the variable that controls purchases Improvements loose their glamour !
Customers are looking for things like value convenience, productivity, ease-‐of-‐use, low-‐cost, reliability !
Emotions
Life Cycle of Technology The move from Technology to Commodity
The need-‐satisfaction curve of technology
The Market of Commodites• What happens when a market becomes mature? – Karaoke Capitalism takes over • Red oceans – All the industries in existence today—the known market space
– Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known
Creating Blue Oceans• Strategy for creating new markets –Make the competition irrelevant • Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence today—the unknown market space, untainted by competition
Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space
Value Innovation
