New Technologies Shaping our Future - IBM · • Persistence • Messaging ... Vision. We ....

New Technologies Shaping our Future

Presenter: Dr. Daniel M. DiasDirector, Cloud Innovation TechnologiesIBM T. J. Watson Research CenterSeptember 10th 2013

© 2010 IBM Corporation

Agenda

Brief Overview of IBM Research

Selected Technologies Shaping Our Future

– Open Cloud Computing and Software Defined Environments

– Cognitive Computing and Applications

Discussion


IBM Research: Famous for Science and Vital to IBM> 3000 Researchers in 11 Labs Worldwide; 20 Years of Patent Leadership

FOAK First of a Kind

EBO Emerging Business Opportunities

Research Partnerships

Technology Transfer

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Inter disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globeCentrally Funded

Joint ProgramsResearch in the Marketplace

Collaborative Innovation

Corporate

Collaborative

Work on

Create business

2010s

Globalization

Collaborativefunded

researchagenda

Technologytransfer

Team

Shared agenda

Effectiveness

clientproblems

advantage for clients

Industry-focusedresearch

partnerships

Emerging markets

Research ServicesResearch Briefings

Hardware

Software

Services

Integrated Solutions

Collaboration for a Smarter Planet

Res

earc

h A

gend

a

3


Major Waves of Technology

Back-Office Computing

Client-Server PC - 1981

World Wide Web and eBusiness

Confluence of Social, Mobile, Cloud, Big Data / Analytics

90’s80’s60’s We are here

Programmable Systems Era

Cognitive Systems Era

4

5© 2013 IBM Corporation

New Modes of EngagementSystems of Record

Data & Transaction Integrity Smarter Devices & Assets

• Data & Transactions• App Infrastructure• Virtualized Resources

• Expanding Interface Modalities• Big Data and Analytics• Social Networking

Next Generation

Architectures

New models of product & service innovation are emerging


A layered and open cloud architecture is necessary

Platform Services

InfrastructureServices

BackplaneFit for purpose PODS

Business Applications as

componentsService Oriented

Architecture

OSLC


Software Defined Environment: Programmable environment to support mission critical enterprise application deployment in the cloud

OpexAgility

Outcome optimized

CapexElasticity

Cloud 1.0 Cloud 2.0 SDE

Infrastructure Elasticity

Virtualization & dynamic provisioning

Homogeneous resources

Dev & Test

Cost reduction

Software Defined Environment to achieve business agility, continuous availability (SoE), and enterprise efficiency & resiliency (SoR):

Programmable/composable workload constructs and software defined infrastructure

Coordinated system view with unified workload aware control plane

Continuous & optimal provisioning adapting to changing workloads for enterprise efficiency and resiliency

Optimized intelligent Platform

Semantic workload composition

Optimized heterogeneous resources

System of Records & Engagement

Mission critical workload agility

Platform Agility

DevOps & service composition

Converged infrastructure

System of engagement

Continuous operation


OpenStack is a global collaboration of developers and cloud computing technologists that seek to produce a ubiquitous Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) open source cloud computing platform for public and private clouds. OpenStack was founded by Rackspace Hosting and NASA jointly in July 2010. 190+ companies and over 5,500 members.

OpenStack

Code available under Apache 2.0 license. Design tenets – scale & elasticity, share nothing & distribute everything

http://openstack.org/

PlatinumMembers

AT&TCanonical

HPIBM

NebulaRackspace

RedHatSUSE

GoldMembers

CiscoCloudscaling

DellDreamhostITRI/CCAT

MirantisPistonYahoo

9

OpenStack Infrastructure Management Software The framework for IBM Software Defined Infrastructure

OpenStack API

ServerStorage Network

SD Infrastructure APIs• Services and Resources• Server, Storage and Network• Broad Ecosystem forming

Cinder Nova Quantum

drivers drivers drivers

v7000 EMCOpenflow

SDN

ESX KVMHyper-V

PowerVM zHyp

Vendor Led Scalable Model• Drivers provided by the vendors • Broad Ecosystem Forming• Resource owner provides adapter

SVC

SD Infrastructure Services• Image services• Infrastructure Patterns• Placement Services

IBM Differentiation provided via

extensions and value added services

IBM Differentiation provided via

extensions and value added services

10

Software Defined Compute, Network & Storage Embracing OpenStack as a framework for storage, compute and networking within SDE

OpenStack Nova APICinder Storage APIs Quantum Network APIs

drivers

Network

drivers

Storage

Driver DriverDriver

Heterogeneous Compute, Storage, Network

Server, Storage and Network Integration

Workload Definition

Workload Orchestration

Workload Definition & Orchestration

IBM DifferentiationIBM Differentiation

Compute

drivers

VMware

ESX

vCenter

Hyper-V

Hyper-V

SC VMM

PowerV M

PowerVM

PowerV C

zHyp

zHyp

zManager

KVM

KVM

RHEV-M(oVirt)

Policy-based Management and

Automation

Snapshot and Backup

Management

Management

Driver

Virtualization

11

Architecture for Flexible Workload Optimization & Management in the SDE

Service Consumer (Application)Service Consumer (Application)

Chooses service plan based on cost, development stage, business opportunity and value

Service ProviderWorkload Definition & Optimization

Deliver service to meet cost & QoS for the requested plan

SoftwareBlueprint for Plan

(Topology & Configuration)



InfrastructureBlueprint for Plan




Orchestrate/Automate software deployment & lifecycle

Orchestrate/Automate infrastructure deployment & lifecycle

SDNSDN SDCSDC SDSSDS

System PComputeSystem PCompute

System PComputeSystem PCompute

SSD + Local DiskSSD + Local Disk

RDMANetworkRDMA

Network

GPFSGPFS

HadoopName Node

HadoopName Node

HadoopDataNode

HadoopDataNode

ManagementServices

PatchBackupChange

ManagementServices

PatchBackupChange

Abstract APIsAbstract APIs

Business Services

BillingEntitlement

Business Services

BillingEntitlement

Abstract APIsAbstract APIs

Optimization & feedback loop using analytics

Optimization & feedback loop using analytics

12

IBM capabilities for Workload Definition and Optimization in the SDE


(Topology &

Configuration)


(Topology &

Configuration)


(Topology &

Configuration)


(Topology &

Configuration)

Orchestrate/Automate software deployment & lifecycle

Orchestrate/Automate infrastructure deployment & lifecycle

SDNSDN SDCSDC SDSSDS

Blueprint Definition and Continuous Delivery: schema, language and tooling for creating, composing and validating software and infrastructure blueprints (Smart Cloud Orchestrator, Patterns, Weaver, TOSCA, OSLC)

Orchestrate lifecycle of services, resources and workloads using a single extensible, integrated platform. Workload optimized infrastructure management (Smart Cloud Orchestrator, Chef, Analytics)

13

An open and scalable cloud platform

An easy to use orchestrator for cloud service automation

A rich set of ready to use automation packages

A marketplace for automation packages sharing and re-use

What is SmartCloud Orchestration?

14

Infrastructure-as-a-Service(IaaS)

VM Ware Power VM KVM Hyper-V Xen Z VM

Orchestration

Multi tierApplication

Image Management Dev Tools

Monitor

Backup & Restore

Security Compliance

Service CatalogueService Catalogue

TOSCA

SmartCloud Orchestrator: an open and scalable platform

1515

APPLICATIONS / WORKLOADS(define user experience, services & programming models; composition model; operational model; differentiation)

CloudOperating

Environment

• Enable applications to be rapidly & incrementally composed from services

• Deliver application changes continuously• Enable continuous availability• Support fit-for-purpose programming models & services• Embed manageability of services & application• Workload Optimized & Elastic

CREATE

CONSUME

CAPACITY

VISIBILITY /

CONTROL

• Persistence• Messaging & Workflow• Scripting &

Programming Languages• (Social media) Analytics

• Compute, Storage,

Network• Clustering

& Elasticity

• Logging• Monitoring

• Security

• Code Repository

& Version control• Continuous build

& Test

DevelopmentServices

Infrastructure Services

Operational Services

Application Services

APIsAPIs APIs

APIs

APIs

APIs

APIsAPIs

Cloud Operating Environment

Services will be matured over time with standard interfaces


Cloud Platform and SolutionsNew business value with cross-industry & at-scale data & analytics

Telco RetailFinanceReal-time fraud alert Risk analyticsMonte Carlo Simulations

Customer Engagement Solns.Procurement Solns.Better lead generation

Churn reduction Tiered data pricing Services cross selling

Multi-cloud Deployment Monitoring Automated

DeploymentHybrid: Private & Public integration, Autoscaling

ContinuousAssuranceSDN, SDS, SDC Resiliency/fault

tolerance tools

Big Data /MapReduce

PredictionOptimization

Massive Scale Data StoreVisualizationHigh Perf

Compute Streams OLTP/ Warehouse DB

High Value Services

Performance & Optimization

…

Bus

ines

s Va

lue

and

Solu

tions

Ente

rpris

e –g

rade

O

pen

Clo

ud P

latfo

rm

Managed Services

zOSCloud

Z LinuxCloud Power

SDEIoT patternData-rich pattern FO pattern HPC patternFO+BO pattern M&E pattern

Solution Patterns

………

http://www.iconfinder.com/icondetails/51400/128/rss_icon

IBM Watson: Precision, Accurate Confidence and Speed – What’s Next?

18

Watson’s real value proposition: Efficient decision support over unstructured (and structured) content

Unstructured Data

Broad, rich in context

Rapidly growing, current

Invaluable yet under utilized

SQL/XQuery

Existing BI

Inference/Rules

Structured Data

Precise, explicit

Narrow, expensive

Jeopardy! Challenge

Deeper Understanding but BrittleHigh Precision at High CostNarrow Limited Coverage

Shallow UnderstandingLow Precision

Broad Coverage

Deeper Understanding, Higher Precision and Broader,

Timely Coverage at lower costs

Key WordSearch

Relevance Ranking

Open-Domain

Question-Answering

19

LearningUnderstanding Interacting Explaining

Specific Questions

The type of murmur associated with this condition is harsh,

systolic, and increases in intensity with

Valsalva

From specific questions

to rich, incomplete problem

scenarios(e.g. EHR)

Rich Problem Scenarios

Entire Medical Record

Question-In/Answer-Out

Evidence analysis and look-ahead,

drive interactive dialog to refine

answers and evidence

Interactive Dialog Teach Watson

Refined Answers, Follow-up Questions

Input, Responses

Dialog

Batch Training Process

Scale domain learning and

adaptation rate and efficiency

Continuous Training & Learning Process

Answers,Corrections, Judgements

Responses, Learning Questions

Precise Answers & Accurate Confidences

Move from quality answers

to quality answers and

evidence

Comparative Evidence Profiles

Taking Watson beyond Jeopardy!

20

Watson 2.0: From Jeopardy! to Clinical Decision Support

Scenario Analysis

Final Confidence Merging & Ranking

Follow-Up and Learning Questions most likely to impact Evidence Profiles

Multi-Dimensional Merging – Merge confidences across independently

contributing factors

Inference Chaining

Evidence Profiles explain answers and confidences, citing key evidence

QuestionGeneration

Scenario/Casee.g., Entire

Medical Record

Extending beyond text evidence to images and speech

Evidence Analysis

Hypothesis & Evidence Scoring

Evidence Discovery

HypothesisGeneration

Multi-Dimensional Input – Formulate meaningful questions and discover

subsets of factors that independently contribute to answers

Intermediate hypotheses result in recursive calls to system (Chaining)

Factors present in evidence but absent in hypotheses lead to follow-up questions

Ambiguities and missing knowledge result in learning questions

Dialog

21

TestData

OriginalContent

Positive Impact? Positive Impact?

Domain Experts

Research Plan

Research Plan

Headroom Analysis

Headroom Analysis

ResearchOpportunities

ResearchOpportunities

ML Models

ML Models

Watson2 Biweekly

Build

Watson2 Biweekly

Build

Researchers

Test Data Input & Output

Expert AnnotationAnswer & Evidence Vetting

and Enrichment

Accuracy AnalysisIdentify & Classify Key Accuracy

Failures

Headroom AnalysisEstimate Potential Impact of

Addressing Failures

Algorithm Development

System RunAnswers & Evidence

Content Analysis

Update/Compile System

Idea Generation& Prioritization

Y

N

Systems Engineers

ContentEvaluation & Prep

Systems Engineers

Researchers

LearningKnowledge Extraction

TrainingData

New Algorithms

New Algorithms

LearningInteractive

Teach Watson

PrepIdeasPrepIdeas

Train System

Indices & Derived Resources

Vetted Output & Enriched Training Data

Researchers

LearningStatistical MLStart

Domain learning: Training and adapting Watson to new domains

Experimental Research Process

The industry is approaching a new era of IT innovation around better leveraging of industry, systems, and delivery knowledge.

Cognitive Era of IT Systems and Delivery

Era of leveraging Automation

Era of leveraging Systems

Inno

vatio

n Sp

ace

Time

Cognitive Era Leveraging Knowledge and Learning Systems

We are Here

The industry is approaching a new era of IT innovation around better leveraging of industry, systems, and delivery knowledge.

Leveraging Cognitive Computing for IT Systems

Systems

TechnicalSupportServices

IT Delivery(Cloud and SO)

Automate the complex tasks of systems configuration, optimization, and problem resolution

Bring multi-silo expertise and proactive problem avoidance tasks to local and remote support staff

Leverage Cognitive Computing and analytics to

Reduce risk from environment changes and prevent (or quickly resolve) problems which stem from complex processes and automation.

24© 2013 IBM Corporation 24

Frontiers of IT: Vision

We envision a future in which advances in technology will see a new class of cognitive systems, architected with people as an integral and central element of the process, to seamlessly enhance human cognition for better outcomes and a better life.

We will go beyond increased storage, better search, and more complex analytics to systems that enable humanity to reach its greatest potential for human creativity, innovation and ingenuity.

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