New Players in the Mediterranean

38
Mediterranean PaPer SerieS 2010 NEW PL A YERS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN RAJAN MENON Lehigh University City College/City University of New York S. ENDERS WIMBUSH Hudson Institute  

Transcript of New Players in the Mediterranean

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Mediterranean PaPer SerieS 2010

NEW PLAYERS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

RAJAN MENON

Lehigh University

City College/City University of New York

S. ENDERS WIMBUSH

Hudson Institute

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© 2010 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writingrom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States1744 R Street, NWWashington, DC 20009

1 202 683 2650F 1 202 265 1662E in o@gm us.org

Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gm us.org/publications/index.c m. Limited printcopies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to in o@gm us.org.

GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta , ellows, and partners o the GermanMarshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the authors and do not necessarily represent the views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to in o@gm us.org.

About GMFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institu-tion dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.

GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discussthe most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety o global policy challenges.

Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains astrong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven ofces inEurope: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.

About the Mediterranean Policy ProgramTe Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues a ecting Southern Europe, North

A rica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues a ecting Mediter-ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlanticcooperation on Mediterranean strategy.

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New Players in the Mediterranean

Mediterranean Paper Series

May 2010

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*R j M c M J. R b L g U vb A B S z c c c C C g N Y k N YW b v c g c H I . T D . A P H I g c .

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New Players in the Mediterranean 3

Executive Summary

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c g b g k c .

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

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New Players in the Mediterranean 5

Introduction1T b k g c b c c, g , c g M c g. S v

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c .

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6

The larger strategic context

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“ v g c c , S k v, “R PT V U ,”Russian Social Science Review, V . 49,N . 6 (N v b /D c b 8), 8 –97.

Russia2

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New Players in the Mediterranean 7

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8

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New Players in the Mediterranean 9

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12

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Arms sales: Using time-tested means in anew milieu

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New Players in the Mediterranean 17

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States18

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22

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New Players in the Mediterranean 23

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The longer view

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New Players in the Mediterranean 25

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States26

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New Players in the Mediterranean 27

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64“I –EU T ,” E C . B TR , :// c. . / / /b /c /

/ x_ . .65“I I S T g E b b ,” FICCI PR , J 4, 7.

India4

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States28

c c c , 99 , I b z c . I 6, b b

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New Players in the Mediterranean 29

g A g Eg b k x g , v L b , M cc ,

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States30

c I - I. T L b g

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New Players in the Mediterranean 31

C b C c j c c v c c $3 b b .75

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32

Japan

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Other Emerging Actors5

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New Players in the Mediterranean 33

F , T k g - g M c gcc S A c k . W B z ’

c , c b c .

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cc c v M c k .

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R , B z ’ g c c c

g x . B z c c

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.5 c GDP x .78 T , g k g v c g

g v , B z - S A c ’ g,

U S , F c , G , S , I ,C , I b g .

78S -L J S . “B z E g g S c Ac R EU,”European Security Review. N .43 (M c 9), . -5.

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States34

T g g g c c M b g c b —C , I , B z —

g c c c c c c c -

— .g., R — c bj c v v g g . W v c k c g c ,b b j

. I , c c g g, c v c

b c b ,

j c g c , . T b c g b , b ,

b b c g c c , g , c v

c b . M c . N ,

M g c cc b c c . W b v

gx c c .

First , c g g A ’ g c —c C I , b J —

c , c c c v M E

P G , b g M . A k M v cq

g M b c b , g g

g . W b , , c g g

, M ’ g k k k c g g b

k g c c . B cc g g b

g — , c gb z g c S A b

c I c cg v c , c , g -M

c M j c g c ,

. I , M b c c

c b c c k g Ac g b g k

Second , g c cM ’

c - g g cv . E g v g v c c v

g c ’ c b v , M

. I , Mg g c

c M E , I E A , E , v L A

.

Third , R b c M c b

c c c b E S , c g

g c c g g g c c

g - c cT k —b b S — k c I

M c . A g c c, c c ,

M g b E ’ M, - b c

I k k k E , gg I M c

g c R ’ . T , c I ’ c c

c v .

Conclusions6

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New Players in the Mediterranean 35

Fourth, T k ’ g g c — R M E ,

I , E , U S —c b g g g

g c c b M c v c

x g c c b c c c g

c . T k c c c c ’

g k v . T c c R . W k g c

g T k , c c c v R b k M , c c c g

c v M M E —

. I , , b c T k U S I

g . A T k b k c c k b c g c g

M g — g c c g .

Fifth, C ’ g g c M b v b c b c v g g c . Acc

c g c . C ’ v c g k v b

g g b gc g c . G g , c g c

g , b . C q c g g b g c

g : E , S A , ME , A c , N A c , L A c ,

M b . I c g U S c

g c c C ’g v b g-

c g v C v b c c v v c c M . C

C ’ b b - v b c c c . I c

k M , K z k , S , A g — cc b g b C

k g , c g c —gg C v v c v

c c b x ,x , b . W C g ,

, C

g g g- c kI R .

Sixth , c U S g c c M

g v ? P , U

S c b c c k g c q b g M

c , c U S

b M

? T c g k . T g “ g c g ” c b g g c

c g b c . W g b j c M ,

U S , g - c c . A ,

A c ’ v c , c, c b v q ck .

T g v A c c c v b A c ’ c b

v b . I c . Ev g T k ’

b c E , A c ’g g T k v . L g k A c , T k

b k b c g g c c

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The German Marshall Fund of the United States36

U S . S , , A c ’c -v I b cc cc g c , g

g. A c ’ “ ” R , c b c b

’ b x c , b v v g b g . A c ’ C c , ,

c .

T U S b c c g c x

M g . B bc g vc g c c

. F g v c k c , c

c , k k c g ,

c c g Mb . I v , M

c k v g c .

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O f f i c e sWashington • Berlin • Bratislava • Paris