New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview by Mike Park HPS Program Manager Task Force Hope...

New Orleans Hurricane Protection

System Overview

by

Mike ParkHPS Program Manager

Task Force HopeU.S. Army Corps of Engineers

March 19, 2008

New Orleans Hurricane Protection

System Overview

by

Mike ParkHPS Program Manager

Task Force HopeU.S. Army Corps of Engineers

March 19, 2008

One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable

100-Year Level of Protection100-Year Level of Protection


Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep

LaCPR Subsequent Actions

08 09 10 11 1207

Peak HurricaneSeason

CY

IHNC

SELA

Pump Repair

Storm Proof

PerimeterProtection

InteriorDrainage

PermanentPumping

PlaqueminesLarose to GMGrand Isle

Planning

CurrentDate

Required Funding (10/08)

100 Year Protection (6/1/11)

Pre-award

Construction

Baseline Schedule:

Levees, Floodwalls, Armoring

Current System Programmatic ScheduleCurrent System Programmatic Schedule

*Assumes required funding received beginning of FY09

One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, ReliableOne Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable

US Army Corpsof Engineers®

Cost to Complete EstimateCost to Complete Estimate

• $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved system protection

• $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level of System protection and complete SELA

• $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget request

• $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved system protection

• $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level of System protection and complete SELA

• $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget request

One Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, ReliableOne Team: Relevant, Ready, Responsive, Reliable

US Army Corpsof Engineers®

Construction StatusConstruction Status

• Total expected construction contracts: ~298

• Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B

• Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B

2008 and Beyond• 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for

around $2B

• Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures

• Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring

• Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs

• Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)

• Total expected construction contracts: ~298

• Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B

• Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B

2008 and Beyond• 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for

around $2B

• Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures

• Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring

• Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs

• Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-07

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9

Jul-0

9

Oct-09

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

# o

f C

on

stru

ctio

n C

on

trac

ts A

war

ded

Planned Awards Awarded

28 - TFG104 - Awarded thru 2/08126 - Schedule Awards thru 2/08166 - Remaining to Award298 Total

Rescheduled

Contract AwardsContract Awards


Construction CompleteConstruction Complete

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dec-0

6

Jun-

07

Dec-0

7

Jun-

08

Dec-0

8

Jun-

09

Dec-0

9

Jun-

10

Dec-1

0

Jun-

11

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

2

# o

f C

on

stru

ctio

n C

on

trac

ts C

om

ple

ted

Planned Completion Construction Complete

28 - TFG Construction Complete66 - Construction Complete as of 2/0875 - Schedule Complete as of 2/08204 - Remaining to Complete298 Total


IHNC Surge ProtectionIHNC Surge Protection

• $800M reallocation approved – all funds in place for award

• Project Partnering Agreement (PPA) negotiations ongoing

• Targeting award of Design-Build contract March 08 – includes advance measures

• Estimating construction start – June 08


Ongoing ConstructionOngoing ConstructionPerimeter ProtectionPerimeter Protection

LPV 148.01 – Verret to Caernarvon

• Raise to 17.5’–20.5’

LPV 142 – IHNC to Paris Rd.

• Raise to 15’

LPV 103 – Orleans Canal to London Canal

• Raise to 19.5’LPV 104 – London Canal to

IHNC• Raise to 17.5’-20.5’

LPV 102 – Lake Marina to Orleans Canal

• Raise to 19’LPV 4.1 – St. Charles Levee Reaches 1A,

1B, 2A• Raise to 13’-14’

WBV 18.1 – Hwy 90 to Lake Cat. PS

• Raise to 11’-12’

WBV 15a.1 – Lake Cat PS to Segnette State Park

• Raise to 12’

WBV 14b.1 – Orleans Village to Hwy 45

• Raise to 12’

WBV 01 – Sectorgate to Boomtown Floodwalls

• Raise to 14’

WBV 6a.1 – Belle Chasse to Hero Cutoff

• Raise to 10’

WBV 02b – Boomtown to Hero PS Floodwalls

• Raise to 14’


STORM

SYSTEM

CONSEQUENCES

Forensic Analysis and Risk-Based System-Wide Assessment

Results are “in the Ground”

IPET and Risk Informed PlanningIPET and Risk Informed Planning


All Hurricanes are All Hurricanes are NOT Created EqualNOT Created EqualHurricane Size MattersHurricane Size Matters

Low

Pre

ssure

Very

Low

Pre

ssu

re

Click Mouse For Animation

Hu

rric

ane Inte

nsi

ty

Hurricane Size (Radius of Max Wind Field – Nautical Miles)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Storm surge potentialincreases as a functionof intensity, size and track.

Though Rita and Betsyhad similar intensities,Betsy, because of its larger size, had thepotential to produce a 4 foot higher storm surge.

37%

7 ft

10 ft

13 ft

17 ft

23 ft

27 ft

20 ft

Camille-5

Katrina-3

Betsy-3

Rita-3

Surg

e Po

tent

ial


-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

Time (days)

Ele

vati

on

(ft

)

Hurricane Paths Considered in Hurricane Paths Considered in the Risk Analysisthe Risk Analysis

• 3 HPS Geometries3 HPS Geometries

– Pre-KatrinaPre-Katrina

– Current (1 June 07)Current (1 June 07)

– 100-year LOP (~2011)100-year LOP (~2011)

• 152 storm hydrographs152 storm hydrographs

• 350+ features350+ features

– FloodwallsFloodwalls

– LeveesLevees

– Pumps StationsPumps Stations

→ 62,928 Hurricane 62,928 Hurricane

HydrographsHydrographs


HAZARDHAZARD RISKRISKSYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCEPERFORMANCE

Water levels – surge and wave Water levels – surge and wave height at 138 locations height at 138 locations

152 hurricanes - 25-yr to 152 hurricanes - 25-yr to 5,000 + frequency5,000 + frequency

Variety of intensities, sizes, Variety of intensities, sizes, speeds and tracksspeeds and tracks

Pre-Katrina, Current, FuturePre-Katrina, Current, Future

Performance of entire 350-Performance of entire 350-mile system (138 reaches, mile system (138 reaches, 350 features)350 features)

Overtopping, potential Overtopping, potential breaches, rainfall, pumpingbreaches, rainfall, pumping

Probability of flooding in each sub-Probability of flooding in each sub-basinbasin

Potential Property damage and Potential Property damage and loss of life caused by flooding loss of life caused by flooding

Based on pre-Katrina population Based on pre-Katrina population and property conditions for each and property conditions for each sub-basin in New Orleans and sub-basin in New Orleans and vicinity vicinity

RISK = Chance of Flooding from Hurricanes X Loss of Property or Life

CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

Index of relative Index of relative losses in terms of losses in terms of Life & Property Life & Property

IPET Risk Assessment ModelIPET Risk Assessment Model


Polder system probabilities & water volumes (conditional values per event)

Hazard analysis (hurricane rates and effects)

Life loss

(h1,l1)

HPS Risks

Spatial peak surge & effective wave height (SW), and durations

Polder consequences(water volume, elevation & loss per event)

Hurricane spatial effects

Hurricane (hi) & rate (li)

Overtopping(O)

Breach*(B)

Economic loss ($)

Life risk Economic

risk ($)

(h2,l2)

(hi,li)

(hN,lN)

Precipitation inflow (Q)

Closure & operations

(C)

Not all closedC

O

O

B

B

Evacuation effectiveness

Low effectiveness E1

Medium effectiveness E2

High effectiveness E3

Exceedance rates & probabilities

B

B

Point estimates with epistemic uncertainty estimates

Inundation elevations

Loss exceedance rates & probabilities:1. per polder2. per Parish3. for region4. for storm categories

Drainage, pump & power

(P)

P

P

P

P

Net water-levels

(W)

Post-surge elevation

Water volumeRainfall volume

P

P

*includes all failure modes of all reaches and their features

All closed C

Loss in a time period T

Water volume

Water volume

Water volume

Water volume

Water volume


O

O

B

B

B

B

P

P

P

P


Water volume

Water volume

Water volume


Water volume

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Event TreeEvent Tree


Risk MethodologyRisk Methodology


Understanding the Flood MapsUnderstanding the Flood Maps

0-2 ft2-4 ft

4-6 ft

6-8 ft

> 8 ft

Shallow Flooding

Deep Flooding

Click Mouse For Animation

• Color coding on maps Color coding on maps indicates depth of indicates depth of inundation.inundation.


2007, 50-Year

2007, 100-Year

2007, 500-Year

Flood Depth MapsFlood Depth Maps


Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps

2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps








1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps


Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes

Notes:• The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time,

demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values• The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet• The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results• The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of

5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event




Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity

March 08March 08


On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes








March 08March 08


With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes








March 08March 08










March 08March 08

New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview by Mike Park HPS Program Manager Task Force Hope...

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