New Mobilities, New Agrarian Forms? Migration and Agrarian Transformations in Southeast

NEW MOBILITIES, NEW AGRARIAN FORMS?

Migration and agrarian transformations in Southeast

Jonathan Rigg Geography Department

Na0onal University of Singapore

Development writ small: Two villages, 77 households, 25 years

Ban Non Tae, Northeast Thailand: 1982

!1. Majority of households dependent on non-‐farm work & individuals

increasingly mobile 2. Despite 25 years of profound change, tracked down 77 of original 81

households 3. Large majority of households con0nued to own and farm land

Three surprises here

Trends vs. turbulence

Household code Amount of money earned

Mobile living: counHng and catching the new normal

!Vietnam • 12-‐16 million, or 13-‐18% of the country’s total popula0on in 2010 (UNDP

2010: 5) !

!China • 130 mio. rural-‐urban migrant workers • largest migra0on stream in human history; including rural-‐rural migrants • total number on the move at the end of 2008: 225 mio. !!Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines • several million migrants in each of these countries

‘FloaHng populaHons’ in Vietnam and China

„For the most part, migration data remain patchy, non-comparable and difficult to access. … !

Despite our ability to establish these broad contours of movement, what we know is dwarfed by what we don’t know. Unfortunately, migration data remain weak. It is much easier for

policy makers to count the international movements of shoes and cell-phones than of nurses and construction workers.“

(UNDP 2009, 28)

‘FloaHng populaHons’ in Vietnam and China

Known unknowns: Ban Khokmayom: Gauging the populaHon of a village in Thailand

!10

Households PopulaHonUthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378

Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003)

Tambon health staHon (2005)Survey esHmate (2005)

!11


!12


Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005)Survey esHmate (2005)


Households PopulaHon

Uthai district census bureau (2005) -‐ 378

Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425

Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005) -‐ 3,000

!13


Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005)


!14



Tambon data (Kor Chor Chor 2 Khor 2003) 126 425Tambon health staHon (2005) 288 1,257Survey esHmate (2005) - 3,000

Ban Khokmayom

Everyday poliHcal economies: Ban Khokmayom

Ban Khokmayom

Land-‐grabbing/global enclosure in Laos

rubber in the north

Mobility, the life course and era-‐defining change

0,0000

25,0000

50,0000

75,0000

100,0000

10-19

years

20-29

years

30-39

years

40-49

years

50-59

years

60 ye

ars +

10-19

years

20-29

years

30-39

years

40-49

years

50-59

years

60 ye

ars +

Farming 1989Non-farm work 1989

Teasing out era, life course and generaHonal changes !

Gender, genera0on and occupa0on in a Northeastern Thai village

Rite of passage?

Male Female

0,0000

25,0000

50,0000

75,0000

100,0000

10-19

years

20-29

years

30-39

years

40-49

years

50-59

years

60 ye

ars+

10-19

years

20-29

years

30-39

years

40-49

years

50-59

years

60 ye

ars +


Or era-defining change?

0,0000

25,0000

50,0000

75,0000

100,0000


Male Female

Residency classificaHon

Number of interviewees

% of sample Average length of Hme in Hanoi (years)

KT1 6 20 20

KT2 3 10 20

KT3 7 23 14

KT4 9 30 13

No registraHon 2 7 9

Unknown 3 10 6

Total 30 100 14

Residency classificaHon of interviewees Hanoi, Vietnam (2010)

Note: KT3 and KT4 are temporary registra0ons; these interviewees do not have urban residency or ho khau

MulH-‐sited households, mulH-‐sited livelihoods

Household footprints, Northeast Thailand

Income sources Ban Dong Daeng, Northeast Thailand: 1981 & 2002 (%)

Source: data extracted from Funahashi 2009: 3.

0102030405060708090

100

!Village-based,!

agricultural

!Village-based, !

non-agriculturalNon-village based,!

wages and remittances

40:60 agricultural/non-‐agricultural

60:40 in situ/ex situ

0102030405060708090

100

!Village-based,!

agricultural

!Village-based, !

non-agriculturalNon-village based,!

wages and remittances

Source: data extracted from Funahashi 2009: 3.

Income sources Ban Dong Daeng, Northeast Thailand: 1981 & 2002 (%)

40:60 agricultural/non-‐agricultural

60:40 in situ/ex situ15:85 agricultural/non-‐agricultural

20:80 in situ/ex situ

Sub-‐livelihood landholdings: few are becoming landless; many are becoming land poor

% (

n=77

)

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

Categories of farmholding (rail)

None 1-2 3-5 6-9 10-19 20-50 >50

1982/832008

The % of landless households in 25 years has risen from 5% to 15% -‐ 85% sHll own (some) land

Villages sustained through absence (Thanh Hoa, Vietnam, 2010) ‘remieance landscapes’ (McKay)

MigraHon and farming

MigraHon, dissociaHon and the geriatrificaHon of farming

Ageing farmers

Farming 83,6 35,7 35,0 51,7 54,8 58

Casual wage work 5,1 42,1 39 12,5 39,3 39

Government employment 3,6 34,2 35 11,2 38,5 37

Private employment 1,8 20,2 18 9,9 35,0 34

Entrepreneurs 0,7 37,5 37,5 9,1 39,9 36,5

Others 5,1 23,6 22 5,6 33,8 32

% (N=275) Mean!! Median % !

(N = 232) Mean MedianOccupation categories

Age (1982/1983) Age (2008)

GeriatrificaHon of farming & reproducHon of farm household (Average age of household heads risen from 47 to 60 years old)

• Mechanisa<on • Geriatrifica<on of farming • Disintensifica<on • Land use change • Cropping changes (transplant – broadcast rice culture) • Idle land

In Japan • Average size of farm = 1.9 ha • 85% of farmers are part-‐<me • Between 1960-‐2004 number of farmers dropped from 12.2 million to 2.2 million • In 2009, 66,000 people took up farming; just 1,850 were from non-‐farming

backgrounds • The average age of farmers exceeded 65 for the first <me in 2010 (65.8 years) • In many areas, just 10% of farmers have a son/daughter willing to take over the farm

The household and the reproducHon of the farm household

Household footprints, Northeast Thailand

Demographic characterisHcs1982/83 2008

Baseline Re-‐study

Household head or relaHonships to household head (%)

Household head 15.7

Spouse of HH head 13.6

Child of household head 54.2

Spouse of child of HH head 3.9

Grandchild of HH head 9.2

Spouse of grandchild of HH head 0.2

Nephew/nieces of HH head 0.2

Parent of HH head/spouse 1.0

Sibling of HH head/spouse 1.6

Other extended family members 0.4

Household complexity, Maharsarakham, Thailand

Demographic characterisHcs1982/83 2008

Baseline Re-‐study

Household head or relaHonships to household head (%)

Household head 15.7 21.3Spouse of HH head 13.6 13.0Child of household head 54.2 22.7Spouse of child of HH head 3.9 8.8Grandchild of HH head 9.2 21.3Spouse of grandchild of HH head 0.2 0.0Nephew/nieces of HH head 0.2 2.5Parent of HH head/spouse 1.0 1.4Sibling of HH head/spouse 1.6 2.2Other extended family members 0.4 6.9

Household complexity, Maharsarakham, Thailand

Two issues: 1. What is ‘the household’ (No longer a co-‐

residen<al dwelling unit) 2. How will the farm household be

reproduced?

Mobility, the natal village and the middle income gap

Date of departure of first and second generaHon migrants, Thailand

0

10

20

30

40

74-7

980

-84

85-8

990

-94

95-9

900

-04

05-0

910

-12

1st genereation migrants2nd generation migrants

Source: survey, Nov-Dec 2012; n = 54 (1st generation migrants), n = 97 (2nd generation migrants)

First generaHon migrants in Bangkok, circa 1990

Migrants in Bangkok circa 1990

Second generaHon migrants in Bangkok circa 2005

MigraHon and return: the migrants of the 1980s departed as sojourning farmers; the migrants of the 2000s depart as school leavers with only a tenuous link to farming and the land

Migrants in Bangkok circa 1990

Second generaHon migrants in Bangkok circa 2005

EducaHonal status of first and second generaHon migrants on departure (Thailand)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Primary

Lower Secondary

Upper Secondary

Higher Education

Vocational Certificate

1st generation2nd generation

Source: survey Nov-‐Dec 2012; n=54 (first genera<on migrants) and n = 97 (second genera<on migrants

MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012

020406080

100120140160

Migrants Total

Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)

020406080

100120140160

Migrants Total

Returnees Expected ReturneesMarriage Migrants Permanent labour migrantsTotal Migrants (current & returning)

MigraHon signatures Northeast Thailand 1974-‐2012

22 migrants or 15% of total were permanent out-‐migrants !o 60% of first generaHon migrants found

their skills of liele use in the village o 75% of second generaHon migrants did so

Precarity in Thailand: the formalisaHon of employment, 1980-‐2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

19801985199019952000

20052006200720082009201020112012

Informal sector employmentFormal sector employment

Precarity in Thailand: the informalisaHon of the formal sector, 1980-‐2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

19801985199019952000

20052006200720082009201020112012

Informal sector employmentFormal sector employment

What is ‘urban’? The urbane villager

In the rural… but of the rural? The rural as socially urban, and also in terms of ameni<es and iden<<es – being urbane in the rural

In the rural… but of the rural? Thompson (2007): ‘socially urban’ Keyes (2010): ‘rural cosmopolitans’ Walker (2012): ‘middle income peasants’

The cosmopolitan peasant...? “Northeastern families today have become increasingly ‘cosmopolitan’ because they are linked to a global labor force, have sophis<cated understandings of Bangkok society, and yet s<ll retain long-‐standing resentment for being looked down on as country bumpkins” (Keyes 2010: 2 ).

New Mobilities, New Agrarian Forms? Migration and Agrarian Transformations in Southeast

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