New Formulas Pmp
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Transcript of New Formulas Pmp
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1. PERT(P + 4M + O )/ 6 Pessimistic, Most Likely, Optimistic
2. Standard Deviation (P - O) / 6
3. Variance [(P - O)/6 ]squared
4. Float or Slack LS-ES and LF-EF
5. Cost Variance EV - AC
6. Schedule Variance EV - PV
7. Cost Perf. Index EV / AC
8. Sched. Perf. Index EV / PV
9. Est. At Completion (EAC)
BAC / CPI,
AC + ETC -- Initial Estimates are flawed
AC + BAC - EV -- Future variance are Atypical
AC + (BAC - EV) / CPI -- Future Variance would be typical
10. Est. To Complete
Percentage complete
EAC - AC
EV/ BAC
11. Var. At Completion BAC - EAC
12. To Complete Performance Index TCPI
Values for the TCPI index of less then 1.0 is good because it indicates the efficiency to complete is less than planned. How efficient
must the project team be to complete the remaining work with the remaining money?
( BAC - EV ) / ( BAC - AC )
13. Net Present Value Bigger is better (NPV)
14. Present Value PV FV / (1 + r)^n
15. Internal Rate of Return Bigger is better (IRR)
16. Benefit Cost RatioBigger is better ((BCR or Benefit / Cost) revenue orpayback VS. cost)Or PV or Revenue / PV of Cost
17. Payback PeriodLess is better
Net Investment / Avg. Annual cash flow.
18. BCWS PV
19. BCWP EV
20. ACWP AC
21. Order of Magnitude Estimate -25% - +75% (-50 to +100% PMBOK)
22. Budget Estimate -10% - +25%
23. Definitive Estimate -5% - +10%
24. Comm. Channels N(N -1)/2
25. Expected Monetary Value Probability * Impact
26. Point of Total Assumption (PTA)((Ceiling Price - Target Price)/buyer's Share Ratio) + Target Cost
Sigma σ
1σ = 68.27% 2σ = 95.45% 3σ = 99.73% 6σ = 99.99985%
Return on Sales ( ROS )
Net Income Before Taxes (NEBT) / Total Sales OR
Net Income After Taxes ( NEAT ) / Total Sales
Return on Assets( ROA ) NEBT / Total Assets OR
NEAT / Total Assets
Return on Investment ( ROI )
NEBT / Total Investment OR
NEAT / Total Investment
Working Capital Current Assets - Current Liabilities
Discounted Cash Flow Cash Flow X Discount Factor
Contract related formulas
Savings = Target Cost – Actual Cost
Bonus = Savings x Percentage
Contract Cost = Bonus + Fees
Total Cost = Actual Cost + Contract Cost
Critical Path formulas Forward Pass: (Add 1 day to Early Start) EF = (ES + Duration - 1)
Backward Pass: (Minus 1 day to Late Finish)LS = (LF - Duration + 1)
ES = Early Start; EF = Early Finish;
LS = Late Start; LF = Late Finish
EVA = Net Operating Profit After Tax - Cost of Capital (Revenue - Op. Exp - Taxes) -
(Investment Capital X % Cost of Capital) EVA - Economic Value Add Benefit Measurement -
Bigger is better
Source Selection = (Weightage X Price) + (Weightage X Quality)
PMP - Math Formulae & Important Points1. Cost Variance, CV = (Earned Value - Actual Cost) EV-AC2. Schedule Variance, SV = (Earned Value - Planned Value) EV - PV3. Cost Performance Index, CPI = EV/AC4. Schedule Performance Index, SPI = EV/PV
BAC = Budget at CompletionEAC = Estimate at Completion
5. EAC = AC + Bottom up ETC - When original estimate is fundamentally flawed6. EAC = BAC/Cumulative CPI - If no variances have occured and same rate of spending will continue7. EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) - When variances are atypical / irregular8. EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / Cumulative CPI * Cumulative SPI - when variances are regular. Assumes poor cost performance.
9. To-Complete Performance Index, TCPI = The cost performance to be achieved to complete the remaining project. It is Work Remaining / Fund Remaining. BAC - EV / BAC - AC - Based on Original Budget BAC - EV / EAC - AC - Based on Re-estimated Budget
10. Estimate to Completion, ETC = EAC - AC11. Variance at Completion, VAC = BAC - EAC n12.FV = PV(1+r)13. Communication Channels = n(n-1)/214. Expected Monetary Value, EMV = P*I, Probability* Impact15. PERT EAD = (O+4M+P)/616. PERT Project Duration = Sum of PERT EADs
17. Standard Deviation, σ = (P-O)/6 218. Variance of an Activity = SD
19. Standard Deviation of a Project = Square root of Var1 + Var2 + ...........
20. NPV/IRR/BCR - Bigger is better
21. Mean = Average22. Median = Center Number / Value or average of center values23. Mode = The most frequent number
24. Contract Incentive Savings = Target Cost - Actual Cost25. Bonus = Savings x Percentage26. Contract Cost = Bonus + Fees27. Total Cost = Actual Cost + Contract Cost28. Point of Total Assumption, PTA = (Ceiling Price - Target Price)/Buyer's Share ratio + Target Cost
3. Standard Deviation, Sigma
1 - 68.26
2 - 95.46
3 - 99.73
4 - 99.99
4. Float / Slack = LS - ES / LF - EF--------------------------------------------------------------------Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) use the forward pass technique. To determine the Early Start of an activity, factor in all its dependencies and see its earliest start date. Consider the following simple diagram (durations are in weeks):
Click to view original sizeThe Early Start (ES) for Activity B is 4. Why? B comes after A. A starts on week 1 and finishes on week 3. So the earliest that B can start is week 4. For simplicity, I think of it as: The duration of preceding activity + 1The Early Finish (EF) is the earliest calculated time an activity can end. To calculate Early Finish, (ES for the activity + Activity Duration) - 1. From the diagram above, we can compute the EF of activity B as [(4 + 3) - 1] = 6. Hence, the EF for Activity B is 6.Late Start (LS) and Late Finish(LF) use the backward pass technique. You can think of backward pass as calculating backward to see how much an activity may slide without affecting the finish date.Late Start (LS) is the latest time an activity may begin without delaying the project duration. The simplest way one can compute the LS is adding the float to the activity Early Start. Using the simple diagram above, we know that Activity B is on the critical path, hence has a float of zero. Also, Activity B's ES = 4. Hence, LS = (0 + 4) or 4. Note that if an activity has a float of zero, ES and LS will be the
same. Late Finish (LF) latest time an activity may be completedwithout delaying the project duration. One can compute LF by LF =(Activity's LS + Activity Duration) - 1. So the LF of Activity B = (4 + 3) - 1 = 6. Note that since activity B has a zero float, EF = LF.
For memory trigger, if the float of the activity is zero, the two starts (ES and LS) and the two finish (EF and LF) are the same. Hence, If float of activity is zero, ES = LS and EF = LF.-----------------------------------------------------------------5. Late Start, LS = Early Start + Float6. EF = ES + Duration -1
7. LF = LS + Duration - 1
8. SWOT - SW/ Internal , OT/ external9. Estimates - Rough Order of Magnitude - -50% to +50%10. Budget Estimate ----- -10% to +25%11. Definitive Estimate ----- -5% to +10%
12. If AC is under Target Cost, Total Contract Cost = Maximum Fee + AC13. If AC > Target Cost, use PTA.