New England Governors Eastern Canadian Premiers Annual ... · New England Governors Eastern...

New England Governors

Eastern Canadian Premiers

Annual Conference

Stephen J. Rourke

Vice President, System Planning

July 11, 2011

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Examination of

Proposed

Renewables &

Clean Energy

Resources in 2008

Hydro Nuclear Landfill gas

Wind Biomass Fuel cells

• Eastern Canada– Large hydro and wind

• New England– Wind and small

dispersed resources

NEG/ECP

July 11, 2011

© ISO New England Inc2

New England Renewable Energy Production12% today, but 30% required by 2020

Biomass

Refuse

Hydro(not pump storage)

Other Small Generation*

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

.8%

GWH

% of Total 2010 Regional Production

(*Note: Other small generation includes: landfill gas, methane, solar, wind, and steam)Source: http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/hstdata/rpts/net_eng_peak_load_sorc/energy_peak_source.xls

5.7%

2.3%

3.0%

3

NEG/ECP

July 11, 2011

© ISO New England Inc

http://www.iso-ne.com/markets/hstdata/rpts/net_eng_peak_load_sorc/energy_peak_source.xls



105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

CELT Energy before Netting Federal Appliance Standards

CELT Energy

CELT Energy Net PDRs

New Energy Efficiency & Appliance

Standards Temper Growth

4

Historical Use & 50/50 Peak Forecast

1.1%

annual growth rate

for electric energy

2011 - 2020

Appliance Standards Begin

CELT Energy before netting federal appliance standards

CELT Energy

CELT Energy net passive demand resources

NEG/ECP

July 11, 2011


New England Governors Adopt

Long-term Renewable Energy Vision in 2009

States’ Blueprint as guiding policy

and regulatory frameworkISO economic study as technical

support

5

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July 11, 2011


New

BrunswickQuébec

New

York

Wind Potential Areas; Benefits & Challenges

6

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July 11, 2011


Areas with strong

wind potential

• Significant potential – Best in north and off-shore

• Wind Benefits:– Fuel diversity

– State renewable portfolio goals

– Fuel costs

• Challenges:– Higher capital costs

– Siting issues

– Intermittent/operational concern

– Cost of transmission investment

– Low natural gas prices

• Wind on System• +250 MW now

• +550 MW by end of 2011

ISO Completes Comprehensive Regional

Wind Study in 2010

• Large-scale wind integration achievable

with additional transmission investment

• Wind resources should be expected to

reduce fossil-fueled generation

– Including natural gas and oil

• Flexible resources needed to manage

variability– Additional regulation and operating reserves

needed

– Natural gas fleet may provide flexibility

• Centralized wind power forecasting

required

7

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July 11, 2011


Study Considers Several Potential Scenarios

PollutantApproximate

annual reduction

Approximate

reduction vs. no

wind

NOx 6,000 tons 26%

SOx 4,000 tons 6%

CO2 12,000,000 tons 25%

• Combination of on- and off-shore

development can produce 20% of

region’s energy need, reduce

emissions

8

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July 11, 2011


Conceptual Overlays ConsideredTransmission needed to access New England wind & imports from Canada

New tie to

Québec

New tie to

New

Brunswick

Each tie could

provide approx.

11% of New

England’s energy

Could provide

approx. 24% of

New England’s

energy

New high-voltage

transmission loop for

12,000 MW wind scenario

9

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July 11, 2011


Transmission ProgressingTransmission projects developed throughout region and

improved import capability

• Reliability improved

across region – Reduced congestion

– Minimized reliance on older

and less efficient units

– Economic dispatch of

generation

• Foundation set for

renewable resource

integration – but more

transmission needed

NW VT

Northeast

Reliability

Interconnect

SWCT Phase 1 & 2

New England

East-West

Solution

Maine Power

Reliability Program

Short & Long- Term SEMA

NSTAR Boston Phases 1 & 2

Monadnock

Area

In service

Construction

Study

VT

Southern

Loop

10

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July 11, 2011


Recent Shift in Regional Capacity Generation fleet historically dominated by nuclear & oil

• Region largely dependent on

oil & nuclear through 1990’s

• Efficient combined-cycle gas

units have displaced older oil-

fired generators

• Investments in transmission

system have reduced reliance

on older fossil units

• Renewable resources growing

in interconnection queue

5%

18%

41%41%

34%

21%

26% 18%

14%

12% 9%9%

6% 5%5%

10% 9% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010

Capacity

Hydro and other renewables

Pumped storage

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Natural gas

11

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July 11, 2011


Shift in Regional Energy GenerationNatural Gas now dominant fuel

NEG/ECP

July 11, 2011


22%

15%

Oil Natural Gas

2000

0.5%

46%

Oil Natural Gas

2010

% of Regional Generation

34%

6%

Oil Natural Gas

1990

Oil use down significantly last 20 years

Natural gas use up significantly last 20 years

Factors Likely to Result in More Changes?

• Market conditions– Relatively low cost of natural gas can displace other resources

• Upcoming US Environmental Protection Agency rules

• Aging fossil-fuel plants

– Clean Air Transport Rule – Utility Air Toxics Rule

– Cooling Water Intake Rule – Coal Combustion Residuals

Age as of 2030 Total MW of Coal and Oil Units

> 50 years old 8,600



13

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July 11, 2011


7,000 MWs of Projects Proposed for RegionMajority of proposed projects in Queue* natural gas or renewables

Coal 42Oil 42

Nuclear 42

Natural Gas 3,24147%

Pump Storage 100

Hydro 44

Wind 2,884

Biomass398

LandfillGas 34Solar 6

Renewables3,366 49%

*June 2011 FERC Jurisdictional Section of Generator Interconnection Queue

Renewables

by Type (MW)

Full Queue* (MW)

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July 11, 2011


Planning in New England and Beyond

Federal Energy

Commission Regulatory

• NOPR: transmission for

“public policy;” cost allocation;

interregional coordination

• Order expected this year

Eastern

Interconnection

Planning Collaborative

• Potential resource and

transmission scenarios

• Final report to US DOE

end of 2012

New England States

Committee on

Electricity

• Coordinated procurement

for renewables

• Identified almost 5,000

MW of potential

development

Inter-Area Interconnection-WideNew England

15

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July 11, 2011


Closing Thoughts …

• New England’s generation fleet has changed significantly

and will continue to evolve

• Renewables – specifically wind – can have expanded role

• New England Strategic Planning Initiative evaluating

potential loss of older fossil-fired generation and

integration of new resources, such as wind

• ISO will continue to get feedback from the states and

looks forward to the opportunity to provide updates to New

England Governor’s and Eastern Canadian Premiers

16

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July 11, 2011


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