New e ( ˆ4 ˛ ( . 8 ˛ ( ˆ4$,( ˛%˜.˙# ˘ˇˆ˙ ˘˙'˙ l M F 9 4 4 + e ˝ ˛ r m p r ... · 1...

The New York Times/Siena College Research Institute

September 10-15, 2020

653 Arizona Likely Voters

MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/

Latino Other Dem Rep

Ind/

Other Phoenix Pima Rest

Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Almost certain 61% 60% 62% 54% 57% 65% 63% 63% 58% 61% 55% 65% 63% 61% 58% 60% 63% 61% 64%

Very likely 36% 36% 36% 38% 39% 34% 36% 35% 37% 35% 42% 34% 34% 35% 40% 37% 34% 38% 34%

Somewhat likely 1% 2% 1% 5% 2% 1% 0% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Not very likely 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Not at all likely 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Don't know/Refused 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

In person on Election Day 27% 28% 26% 24% 30% 34% 19% 24% 32% 31% 12% 41% 25% 26% 28% 29% 27% 18% 28%

In person before Election Day 7% 8% 6% 11% 3% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 5% 6% 7%

Vote by mail 62% 59% 65% 62% 63% 56% 69% 65% 54% 62% 80% 46% 65% 62% 63% 58% 64% 71% 61%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden, the Democrat 49% 45% 54% 53% 57% 43% 51% 45% 57% 67% 94% 8% 54% 58% 57% 45% 45% 55% 39%

Donald Trump, the Republican 40% 43% 37% 25% 32% 50% 40% 46% 26% 25% 3% 89% 23% 33% 31% 42% 45% 40% 50%

Jo Jorgenson, the Libertarian 4% 5% 3% 13% 7% 2% 1% 3% 9% 4% 1% 1% 10% 2% 5% 7% 3% 2% 4%

Vol: Someone else 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Vol: Not voting for President 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%


Q1. Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?

Gender Age Race/Ethnicity Region Race/EducationParty ID

Party ID

Party ID

Q3. If the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (with leaners)

Gender Age Race/Ethnicity Region Race/Education

Q2. Regardless of whether you intend to vote in the November general election, would you vote in person on Election Day, vote in person before Election Day, or vote by mail?


AZ0920 Crosstabs.xlsx 1 of 10




MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

For Donald Trump 81% 83% 79% 83% 61% 86% 84% 85% 71% 63% 30% 87% 65% 73% 80% 89% 80% 84% 85%

Against Joe Biden 14% 13% 15% 17% 29% 9% 11% 12% 21% 27% 70% 8% 27% 14% 20% 10% 14% 10% 12%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

For Joe Biden 44% 46% 43% 31% 32% 52% 53% 40% 56% 41% 51% 31% 38% 43% 51% 52% 38% 41% 39%

Against Donald Trump 49% 46% 52% 66% 61% 42% 40% 55% 40% 45% 43% 66% 55% 51% 45% 44% 53% 51% 58%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Definitely vote for candidate 91% 90% 92% 79% 88% 94% 95% 92% 89% 89% 93% 93% 88% 91% 93% 92% 90% 94% 92%

Could change mind 8% 10% 7% 19% 12% 5% 5% 7% 10% 11% 7% 6% 11% 9% 5% 8% 10% 5% 8%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Mark Kelly, the Democrat 50% 47% 52% 50% 61% 43% 49% 45% 57% 67% 89% 6% 60% 57% 60% 41% 47% 52% 40%

Martha McSally, the Republican 42% 45% 39% 32% 28% 52% 45% 48% 28% 27% 6% 87% 28% 36% 36% 50% 42% 41% 53%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Vol: Not voting for Senate 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2%


Q7. If the 2020 U.S. Senate election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:


Q6. Have you decided you´ll definitely vote for [CANDIDATE NAME] or is there still some chance you could change your mind?


Party ID

Q5. (If voting for Joe Biden) Is your vote more of a vote for Joe Biden or a vote against Donald Trump?


Q4. (If voting for Donald Trump) Is your vote more of a vote for Donald Trump or a vote against Joe Biden?


Party ID





MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Strongly approve 34% 36% 32% 16% 26% 43% 39% 40% 24% 19% 6% 79% 15% 25% 31% 39% 37% 34% 44%

Somewhat approve 9% 12% 7% 20% 7% 9% 6% 9% 11% 7% 2% 10% 15% 8% 6% 11% 10% 7% 11%

Somewhat disapprove 5% 6% 5% 10% 6% 4% 3% 5% 6% 8% 6% 1% 8% 4% 4% 3% 7% 6% 4%

Strongly disapprove 47% 43% 52% 52% 56% 42% 47% 43% 57% 58% 83% 10% 56% 56% 57% 42% 43% 51% 38%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very enthusiastic 70% 70% 69% 49% 60% 75% 80% 72% 61% 76% 73% 83% 56% 66% 69% 71% 71% 75% 70%

Somewhat enthusiastic 16% 17% 16% 23% 26% 15% 9% 16% 20% 14% 17% 10% 22% 19% 16% 13% 17% 17% 15%

Not very enthusiastic 8% 6% 9% 19% 6% 4% 7% 6% 14% 3% 8% 3% 12% 6% 11% 11% 5% 5% 7%

Not at all enthusiastic 6% 6% 5% 9% 6% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5% 2% 2% 10% 8% 4% 4% 6% 4% 7%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 31% 32% 30% 14% 19% 40% 37% 36% 23% 16% 1% 76% 13% 23% 30% 37% 31% 28% 41%

Somewhat favorable 12% 14% 11% 17% 16% 13% 8% 13% 11% 12% 3% 14% 19% 10% 7% 12% 16% 12% 14%

Somewhat unfavorable 7% 8% 6% 17% 4% 5% 6% 5% 11% 11% 6% 1% 13% 7% 5% 5% 9% 5% 5%

Very unfavorable 48% 44% 52% 50% 58% 41% 48% 45% 54% 58% 89% 9% 53% 58% 58% 44% 42% 54% 39%


[Q10-Q16 ROTATED] Q10. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable,

somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of each? Donald Trump


Q9. And when it comes to the November election, would you say you´re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting, or not at all

enthusiastic?


Q8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?


Party ID





MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 32% 29% 34% 20% 28% 29% 43% 27% 40% 45% 68% 5% 29% 34% 40% 35% 26% 30% 25%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 28% 28% 28% 18% 32% 22% 38% 26% 33% 35% 58% 5% 29% 29% 39% 25% 26% 30% 24%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 22% 24% 19% 9% 10% 25% 31% 24% 17% 18% 3% 49% 11% 15% 20% 26% 23% 19% 27%





Q13. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very

unfavorable impression of each? Martha McSally



unfavorable impression of each? Mark Kelly


Party ID


unfavorable impression of each? Joe Biden






MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 30% 23% 36% 13% 34% 27% 38% 28% 35% 32% 65% 4% 26% 29% 41% 29% 26% 36% 23%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 28% 32% 25% 10% 17% 35% 35% 33% 19% 16% 2% 66% 14% 21% 25% 34% 30% 27% 36%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 34% 29% 39% 52% 45% 25% 27% 29% 43% 50% 61% 9% 37% 41% 42% 29% 31% 33% 26%






unfavorable impression of each? The Black Lives Matter Movement



unfavorable impression of each? Mike Pence



unfavorable impression of each? Kamala Harris


Party ID





MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 55% 53% 58% 72% 64% 47% 52% 50% 67% 71% 96% 10% 67% 61% 64% 51% 52% 57% 45%

Donald Trump 39% 42% 37% 22% 33% 49% 42% 45% 29% 26% 2% 87% 25% 33% 31% 44% 43% 36% 50%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 47% 42% 51% 46% 53% 43% 49% 42% 57% 60% 89% 8% 51% 55% 59% 43% 40% 50% 38%

Donald Trump 49% 54% 44% 45% 43% 55% 47% 54% 38% 37% 8% 90% 41% 41% 38% 51% 55% 48% 58%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 51% 46% 57% 63% 58% 44% 50% 44% 66% 68% 93% 9% 59% 58% 61% 47% 47% 53% 39%

Donald Trump 45% 50% 40% 30% 36% 55% 45% 52% 30% 29% 4% 90% 34% 36% 35% 49% 50% 43% 57%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 53% 51% 55% 64% 60% 47% 51% 47% 64% 71% 96% 8% 62% 63% 61% 45% 50% 54% 43%

Donald Trump 43% 46% 39% 33% 34% 52% 43% 49% 33% 25% 3% 91% 30% 35% 38% 47% 46% 42% 53%


Q20. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: Choosing a Supreme Court Justice


Q19. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: Maintaining law and order


Q18. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: The economy


Party ID

[Q17-Q21 ROTATED] Q17. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: The coronavirus

pandemic






MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 48% 45% 52% 48% 57% 44% 49% 43% 59% 66% 89% 8% 55% 57% 54% 45% 45% 53% 37%

Donald Trump 47% 50% 44% 41% 39% 54% 46% 52% 34% 32% 6% 92% 36% 40% 40% 48% 52% 44% 58%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Addressing the coronavirus pandemic 44% 44% 45% 49% 48% 40% 44% 41% 42% 66% 77% 13% 49% 49% 52% 37% 43% 51% 36%

Addressing law and order 49% 50% 48% 48% 45% 55% 46% 52% 50% 28% 17% 83% 43% 45% 37% 56% 51% 41% 59%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Too quickly 31% 29% 33% 48% 35% 22% 31% 30% 32% 40% 56% 8% 35% 34% 34% 33% 27% 36% 26%

Too slowly 23% 22% 24% 20% 16% 34% 16% 24% 18% 23% 13% 34% 18% 18% 23% 24% 24% 20% 26%

About right 42% 46% 40% 31% 44% 43% 46% 43% 48% 29% 28% 55% 43% 44% 39% 40% 45% 42% 44%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Riots in American cities 43% 46% 40% 20% 33% 50% 52% 48% 38% 24% 15% 83% 29% 33% 35% 50% 48% 39% 54%

Racism in the criminal justice system 51% 48% 54% 76% 61% 45% 40% 46% 59% 68% 81% 14% 64% 61% 55% 45% 48% 55% 41%


Q24. What do you think is a bigger problem in America today? [CHOICES ROTATED]


Q23. Do you think that your state is moving too quickly or too slowly to ease social distancing restrictions and reopen, or is it about right?


Q22. What is the more important issue to you in the presidential race: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Party ID

Q21. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: National security






MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

The federal government’s priority should

be to limit the spread of the coronavirus,

even if it hurts the economy

55% 51% 59% 73% 60% 44% 56% 50% 61% 72% 91% 22% 59% 60% 60% 48% 54% 57% 46%


be to restart the economy, even if it

increases the risk to public health

38% 40% 35% 23% 32% 51% 33% 41% 36% 19% 7% 69% 32% 30% 34% 44% 39% 33% 46%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Democratic control of the Senate 50% 47% 53% 57% 58% 45% 47% 45% 57% 69% 95% 6% 56% 60% 59% 45% 44% 53% 40%

Republican control of the Senate 44% 49% 41% 37% 35% 51% 46% 51% 36% 23% 3% 92% 32% 34% 37% 48% 50% 43% 56%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

The White House and the Senate are

controlled by the same party68% 69% 67% 45% 66% 73% 76% 70% 65% 65% 71% 80% 58% 67% 76% 67% 66% 69% 72%


controlled by different parties24% 22% 26% 48% 27% 19% 16% 21% 31% 27% 25% 15% 32% 27% 18% 23% 26% 25% 19%

Vol: No difference 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2%


Q27. What do you think will be a better outcome for the country in this election: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Q26. What is your preference for the outcome of this year´s elections for U.S. Senate: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Party ID

Q25. And what comes closer to your view: [CHOICES ROTATED]






MOE +/- 4.1%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

The possibility that Joe Biden and

Democrats will control both the Senate and

the White House

43% 45% 42% 38% 36% 54% 39% 47% 36% 33% 11% 84% 31% 36% 40% 47% 46% 39% 52%

The possibility that Donald Trump and

Republicans will control both the Senate

and the White House

51% 48% 54% 59% 57% 44% 52% 48% 58% 62% 88% 13% 59% 55% 56% 46% 50% 55% 43%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Donald Trump 47% 49% 45% 55% 44% 53% 39% 49% 45% 39% 11% 85% 41% 41% 40% 49% 52% 42% 53%

Joe Biden 43% 41% 45% 37% 44% 42% 46% 41% 47% 50% 82% 9% 45% 47% 49% 42% 39% 50% 34%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 7% 9% 6% 14% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 3% 4% 7% 11% 4% 5% 8% 9% 7% 8%

Not doing enough 45% 43% 48% 47% 58% 40% 42% 42% 47% 64% 73% 18% 48% 52% 54% 46% 38% 46% 39%

Doing about the right amount 43% 44% 42% 35% 32% 50% 45% 45% 44% 26% 21% 71% 35% 39% 36% 40% 49% 43% 47%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Hisp/


Ind/


Rest of

Maricopa

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 9% 11% 6% 9% 9% 11% 6% 9% 8% 10% 1% 13% 11% 5% 11% 10% 9% 7% 9%

Not doing enough 46% 43% 48% 49% 47% 42% 48% 45% 45% 56% 79% 20% 44% 48% 54% 43% 43% 51% 41%

Doing about the right amount 41% 41% 41% 42% 41% 42% 39% 42% 46% 27% 19% 61% 41% 42% 33% 43% 43% 39% 44%


Q31. Do you think the federal government is doing too much to support the unemployed, not doing enough to support the unemployed, or is doing about the right amount?


Q30. Do you think the federal government is doing too much to support the economy during the pandemic, not doing enough to support the economy during the pandemic, or is doing about

the right amount?


Party ID

Q29. Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the 2020 presidential election: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Q28. And what concerns you more: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Party ID





MOE +/- 4.1%

Gender

Male 47%

Female 53%

Age

18 to 29 14%

30 to 44 21%

45 to 64 34%

65 and older 30%

Race/Ethnicity

White 66%

Hispanic/Latino 21%

Non-White 11%

Party Identification

Democrat 29%

Republican 33%

Independent/Other 36%

Region

Phoenix 19%

Pima 16%

Rest 24%

Rest of Maricopa 40%

Race & Education

Whites with Bachelor's degree or higher 26%

Whites with less than Bachelor's degree 41%

Education

High school or less 26%

Some College 36%

Bachelor's degree 24%

Graduate degree 14%

2016 Vote

Hillary Clinton 37%

Donald Trump 36%

Other 9%

Didn't vote 16%

Party Registration

Democrat 34%

Republican 38%


Arizona Likely Voters

Nature of the Sample




663 Maine Likely Voters

MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/

Bangor CD2 Cumberland

North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Almost certain 68% 69% 70% 67% 66% 74% 77% 70% 63% 72% 68% 68% 68% 68% 80% 65%

Very likely 28% 29% 27% 29% 30% 26% 22% 28% 33% 26% 30% 30% 30% 23% 17% 33%

Somewhat likely 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 5% 1% 1%

Not very likely 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%

Not at all likely 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%

Don't know/Refused 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

In person on Election Day 49% 56% 43% 47% 58% 42% 25% 72% 50% 50% 36% 65% 49% 50% 41% 54%

In person before Election Day 10% 12% 9% 8% 10% 12% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 6% 11% 13% 13% 9%

Vote by mail 37% 29% 44% 40% 30% 42% 58% 17% 36% 35% 50% 25% 37% 32% 42% 32%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden, the Democrat 55% 49% 60% 59% 48% 58% 96% 10% 61% 55% 70% 41% 55% 49% 66% 48%

Donald Trump, the Republican 38% 43% 34% 33% 47% 34% 1% 84% 30% 36% 25% 52% 39% 42% 28% 45%

Jo Jorgenson, the Libertarian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Howie Hawkins of the Green Party 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Vol: Not voting for President 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1%


Q3. As you may know, voters in Maine can now rank candidates for president in order of preference. If the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would you rank as your first

choice if the candidates were: (with rank choice and leaners)

Gender Age Party ID Region Race/Education



Q1. Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to

vote?


ME0920 Crosstabs.xlsx 1 of 12




MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Definitely rank higher 89% 91% 88% 86% 92% 90% 97% 95% 80% 95% 86% 91% 88% 90% 92% 90%

Could change mind 10% 9% 11% 14% 8% 6% 3% 5% 18% 5% 11% 9% 12% 9% 8% 9%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Sara Gideon, the Democrat 49% 48% 49% 56% 45% 46% 92% 8% 50% 53% 64% 38% 45% 44% 57% 45%

Susan Collins, the Republican 44% 48% 42% 37% 49% 47% 5% 88% 42% 43% 27% 58% 48% 49% 37% 48%

Max Lind, an independent candidate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Lisa Savage, an independent candidate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Vol: Not voting for Senate 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/

Bangor CD2

North

CD2

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Jared Golden, the Democrat 56% 53% 59% 63% 48% 60% 90% 23% 64% 61% 48% 62% 65% 52%

Dale Crafts, the Republican 37% 42% 34% 27% 47% 36% 3% 75% 28% 32% 45% 32% 32% 40%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%

Vol: Not voting for U.S. Congress 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Don't know/Refused 6% 5% 7% 8% 5% 4% 7% 2% 8% 7% 7% 4% 3% 7%

Q6. (If CD2) In Maine, voters now rank candidates for U.S. Congress in order of preference. If the 2020 U.S. Congressional election were held today, who would you rank as your first

choice if the candidates were: (with rank choice)


Q5. In Maine, voters now rank candidates for U.S. Senate in order of preference. If the 2020 U.S. Senate election were held today, who would you rank as your first choice if the

candidates were: (with rank choice)


Q4. Have you decided you´ll definitely rank [CANDIDATE NAME] higher or is there still some chance you could change your mind?






MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Strongly approve 29% 33% 25% 22% 39% 25% 1% 68% 21% 26% 14% 45% 28% 36% 17% 35%

Somewhat approve 10% 12% 8% 14% 9% 8% 6% 17% 9% 8% 9% 12% 12% 8% 10% 9%

Somewhat disapprove 7% 6% 7% 12% 4% 5% 1% 5% 11% 8% 11% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7%

Strongly disapprove 53% 46% 59% 52% 47% 60% 92% 10% 57% 55% 66% 38% 53% 48% 64% 48%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 28% 33% 24% 20% 38% 25% 1% 68% 20% 27% 14% 41% 30% 32% 16% 35%

Somewhat favorable 11% 12% 10% 15% 12% 7% 2% 16% 13% 8% 5% 15% 13% 15% 12% 10%

Somewhat unfavorable 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 8% 2% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 6%

Very unfavorable 54% 48% 60% 60% 46% 58% 95% 9% 59% 57% 73% 38% 51% 47% 66% 48%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 37% 32% 41% 27% 35% 48% 73% 8% 33% 40% 44% 26% 37% 36% 43% 33%





Q9. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or

very unfavorable impression of each? Joe Biden


[Q8-Q15 ROTATED] Q8. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable,

somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of each? Donald Trump








MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 24% 23% 25% 21% 24% 28% 51% 3% 20% 33% 28% 18% 23% 20% 24% 23%





Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 25% 26% 24% 14% 32% 28% 4% 55% 18% 32% 12% 37% 26% 21% 20% 28%





Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/

Bangor CD2

North

CD2

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 31% 29% 35% 20% 27% 45% 52% 15% 33% 29% 34% 31% 41% 29%

Somewhat favorable 31% 34% 29% 45% 30% 23% 33% 24% 37% 42% 26% 30% 36% 30%

Somewhat unfavorable 14% 14% 13% 9% 17% 13% 2% 24% 13% 12% 17% 11% 9% 15%

Very unfavorable 13% 16% 9% 11% 18% 9% 0% 26% 10% 8% 16% 12% 9% 13%


Q12. (If CD2) I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat

unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of each? Jared Golden



very unfavorable impression of each? Susan Collins



very unfavorable impression of each? Sara Gideon






MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/

Bangor CD2

North

CD2

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 16% 17% 15% 7% 21% 17% 0% 34% 11% 15% 19% 12% 12% 16%

Somewhat favorable 25% 28% 22% 23% 32% 18% 7% 36% 28% 23% 26% 24% 27% 25%

Somewhat unfavorable 13% 10% 14% 18% 8% 14% 19% 4% 15% 14% 10% 14% 11% 13%

Very unfavorable 14% 16% 12% 10% 15% 17% 31% 4% 12% 16% 14% 13% 22% 11%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 16% 18% 13% 9% 19% 18% 2% 38% 9% 14% 12% 23% 15% 15% 12% 18%





Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 34% 26% 42% 48% 28% 27% 64% 5% 36% 49% 46% 25% 28% 30% 43% 29%






very unfavorable impression of each? The Black Lives Matter Movement



very unfavorable impression of each? Brett Kavanaugh


Q13. (If CD2) I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat

unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of each? Dale Crafts






MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 60% 54% 65% 70% 48% 63% 96% 14% 67% 58% 77% 44% 60% 53% 70% 54%

Donald Trump 35% 40% 31% 26% 47% 31% 3% 79% 27% 36% 19% 49% 34% 43% 23% 42%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 52% 50% 55% 58% 42% 59% 94% 10% 55% 61% 62% 36% 54% 47% 63% 48%

Donald Trump 46% 49% 43% 41% 56% 40% 5% 88% 43% 37% 34% 62% 45% 52% 34% 51%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 55% 50% 61% 61% 46% 61% 93% 11% 63% 60% 67% 42% 55% 50% 67% 51%

Donald Trump 41% 46% 36% 37% 49% 36% 3% 87% 34% 38% 27% 56% 40% 47% 28% 46%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 59% 55% 64% 67% 51% 62% 97% 12% 68% 63% 72% 44% 60% 53% 70% 54%

Donald Trump 37% 41% 33% 31% 46% 33% 1% 83% 28% 34% 22% 50% 39% 42% 27% 43%








[Q16-Q20 ROTATED] Q16. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: The coronavirus

pandemic






MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 54% 48% 59% 60% 44% 59% 94% 11% 58% 62% 69% 40% 50% 49% 67% 47%

Donald Trump 43% 47% 39% 38% 51% 37% 2% 87% 38% 36% 29% 57% 46% 45% 30% 49%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Addressing the coronavirus pandemic 52% 47% 58% 55% 49% 55% 77% 24% 55% 51% 64% 37% 54% 48% 69% 46%

Addressing law and order 42% 47% 36% 41% 48% 34% 17% 69% 40% 46% 29% 54% 41% 45% 27% 48%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Too quickly 7% 5% 9% 12% 3% 6% 11% 2% 8% 12% 13% 4% 3% 5% 6% 7%

Too slowly 26% 33% 18% 23% 33% 20% 1% 53% 23% 23% 10% 33% 35% 27% 20% 28%

About right 64% 58% 70% 62% 61% 69% 84% 41% 67% 63% 71% 59% 61% 63% 72% 61%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Riots in American cities 42% 48% 38% 31% 52% 43% 13% 80% 37% 39% 23% 57% 46% 49% 33% 49%

Racism in the criminal justice system 51% 48% 55% 67% 44% 45% 80% 16% 57% 52% 73% 34% 49% 43% 64% 43%














MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+




61% 55% 68% 69% 54% 62% 92% 30% 63% 65% 74% 44% 61% 57% 71% 56%




32% 38% 27% 28% 41% 27% 4% 61% 32% 26% 17% 43% 38% 38% 26% 37%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Democratic control of the Senate 53% 46% 59% 61% 46% 53% 96% 7% 58% 59% 65% 39% 54% 44% 62% 48%

Republican control of the Senate 41% 48% 36% 34% 50% 40% 2% 90% 34% 36% 27% 56% 41% 51% 32% 47%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+


controlled by the same party70% 73% 69% 72% 75% 66% 75% 77% 63% 72% 71% 71% 73% 62% 72% 70%


controlled by different parties19% 18% 20% 20% 18% 20% 12% 17% 26% 18% 19% 20% 15% 26% 13% 22%

No difference 2% 2% 2% 0% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2%












MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+


Democrats will control both the Senate and

the White House

40% 45% 36% 36% 48% 34% 9% 82% 31% 34% 30% 50% 42% 44% 30% 45%



and the White House

56% 51% 62% 60% 49% 62% 89% 16% 64% 61% 67% 45% 54% 53% 67% 52%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Donald Trump 45% 49% 41% 48% 51% 36% 8% 87% 42% 41% 37% 57% 42% 51% 33% 53%

Joe Biden 45% 44% 46% 42% 41% 52% 82% 11% 45% 45% 51% 34% 49% 39% 54% 39%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 7% 9% 4% 6% 9% 5% 4% 11% 6% 7% 3% 10% 4% 12% 2% 9%

Not doing enough 45% 44% 46% 50% 43% 44% 68% 22% 47% 59% 49% 37% 47% 36% 55% 40%

Doing about the right amount 42% 42% 43% 39% 43% 46% 23% 65% 38% 32% 38% 46% 43% 47% 37% 46%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 18% 18% 17% 19% 21% 12% 6% 21% 23% 11% 10% 28% 18% 21% 13% 20%

Not doing enough 38% 38% 40% 43% 31% 42% 69% 12% 38% 46% 48% 23% 38% 35% 52% 29%

Doing about the right amount 40% 41% 39% 37% 43% 40% 20% 65% 36% 42% 37% 43% 38% 42% 30% 47%




Q29. Do you think the federal government is doing too much to support the economy during the pandemic, not doing enough to support the economy during the pandemic, or is doing

about the right amount?










MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Too much 49% 46% 53% 57% 41% 52% 87% 7% 55% 58% 60% 37% 47% 44% 60% 44%

Too little 8% 9% 8% 5% 11% 8% 1% 21% 5% 10% 4% 10% 10% 8% 8% 9%

About the right amount 38% 44% 32% 35% 44% 35% 10% 68% 36% 29% 29% 46% 41% 43% 30% 43%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Local issues, like which candidate will do

most for Maine41% 40% 44% 49% 43% 34% 30% 43% 50% 42% 38% 45% 39% 46% 32% 50%

National issues, like which party controls

the U.S. Senate50% 56% 46% 47% 51% 55% 62% 52% 45% 52% 50% 48% 56% 44% 62% 42%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Approve 38% 44% 34% 29% 50% 37% 4% 79% 33% 36% 25% 52% 38% 45% 30% 44%

Disapprove 55% 51% 59% 66% 45% 56% 93% 12% 61% 58% 69% 42% 55% 45% 68% 48%


Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Approve 43% 46% 39% 42% 52% 34% 4% 76% 45% 30% 37% 51% 44% 46% 29% 50%

Disapprove 55% 52% 58% 58% 48% 61% 94% 23% 53% 66% 58% 46% 55% 51% 70% 48%


Q34. Over the past two years, Susan Collins voted on many issues in the U.S. Senate. For each of the following, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the vote by Susan Collins.

Her vote against impeaching President Trump


[Q33-Q35 ROTATED] Q33. Over the past two years, Susan Collins voted on many issues in the U.S. Senate. For each of the following, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the

vote by Susan Collins. Her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh as a U.S. Supreme Court justice


Q32. What´s more important to your vote for U.S. Senate: [CHOICES ROTATED]


Q31. Do you think Susan Collins supports President Trump too much, supports President Trump too little, or supports President Trump about the right amount?






MOE +/- 5.1%

Total M F 18-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

Acadia/


North

CD2

Rest of

CD1

Southwest

CD2

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Approve 50% 46% 55% 56% 54% 39% 59% 42% 52% 57% 48% 49% 54% 43% 57% 47%

Disapprove 39% 42% 36% 39% 35% 46% 34% 44% 39% 34% 37% 40% 35% 48% 35% 41%


Q35. Over the past two years, Susan Collins voted on many issues in the U.S. Senate. For each of the following, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the vote by Susan Collins.

Her vote against the Republican bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act






MOE +/- 5.1%

Gender

Male 49%

Female 50%

Age

18 to 44 31%

45 to 64 36%

65 and older 30%

Race/Ethnicity

White 90%

Non-White 7%


Democrat 27%

Republican 28%


Region

Acadia/ Bangor CD2 11%

Cumberland 25%

North CD2 19%

Rest of CD1 29%

Southwest CD2 17%

Race & Education



Education


Some College 32%


Graduate degree 13%

2016 Vote

Hillary Clinton 44%

Donald Trump 36%

Other 11%

Didn't vote 9%

Party Registration

Democrat 37%

Republican 29%



Maine Likely Voters




653 North Carolina Likely Voters

MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT

Metro East Mecklenburg

Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Almost certain 74% 76% 73% 63% 76% 79% 72% 76% 68% 75% 76% 71% 72% 74% 78% 82% 78% 65% 80% 74%

Very likely 22% 20% 24% 31% 20% 19% 24% 21% 27% 23% 20% 25% 26% 23% 19% 15% 16% 30% 17% 23%

Somewhat likely 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 3% 1% 2%

Not very likely 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Not at all likely 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Already voted 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1%

Don't know/Refused 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

In person on Election Day 39% 38% 39% 32% 42% 43% 32% 45% 18% 22% 48% 45% 53% 47% 23% 28% 33% 39% 41% 47%

In person before Election Day 37% 35% 39% 34% 38% 39% 36% 34% 52% 49% 33% 30% 30% 34% 50% 32% 39% 42% 37% 32%

Vote by mail 19% 22% 16% 26% 18% 12% 24% 16% 22% 22% 15% 20% 11% 15% 24% 35% 18% 14% 17% 16%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden, the Democrat 45% 44% 45% 62% 43% 40% 44% 34% 86% 90% 5% 42% 26% 40% 58% 66% 55% 33% 47% 26%

Donald Trump, the Republican 44% 43% 44% 20% 44% 50% 50% 56% 2% 4% 89% 39% 56% 48% 27% 24% 36% 58% 43% 65%

Jo Jorgenson, the Libertarian 2% 2% 1% 11% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% 2% 2%

Howie Hawkins of the Green Party 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 0% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Vol: Not voting for President 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

For Donald Trump 80% 82% 78% 55% 78% 83% 81% 80% 100% 90% 83% 73% 79% 83% 94% 75% 82% 75% 76% 82%

Against Joe Biden 14% 11% 17% 22% 16% 12% 13% 13% 0% 10% 11% 22% 21% 9% 6% 23% 6% 18% 16% 12%


Q4. (If voting for Donald Trump) Is your vote more of a vote for Donald Trump or a vote against Joe Biden?

Gender Age Race/Ethnicity Party ID Region Race/Education

Q3. If the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (with already voted and leaners)




Q1. Thinking ahead to the November general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?


NC0920 Crosstabs.xlsx 1 of 9




MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

For Joe Biden 50% 49% 51% 23% 39% 66% 62% 43% 63% 63% 7% 38% 67% 46% 66% 51% 37% 49% 46% 39%

Against Donald Trump 44% 45% 44% 71% 52% 30% 34% 50% 33% 33% 61% 57% 28% 53% 26% 42% 59% 42% 46% 54%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Definitely vote for candidate 91% 87% 94% 78% 88% 94% 94% 90% 96% 96% 96% 79% 88% 90% 87% 91% 93% 93% 91% 89%

Could change mind 9% 12% 6% 22% 12% 6% 4% 10% 4% 4% 4% 20% 12% 9% 13% 9% 7% 7% 8% 10%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Cal Cunningham, the Democrat 42% 41% 44% 52% 36% 40% 47% 32% 79% 89% 5% 38% 25% 37% 58% 59% 50% 34% 45% 24%

Thom Tillis, the Republican 37% 39% 36% 18% 39% 43% 40% 47% 6% 4% 80% 30% 45% 40% 28% 26% 38% 43% 34% 54%

Shannon Bray, the Libertarian 2% 1% 3% 1% 5% 2% 0% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 10% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 2% 2%

Kevin Hayes of the Constitution Party 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2%

Vol: Someone else 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%

Vol: Not voting for Senate 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Roy Cooper, the Democrat 47% 46% 48% 62% 42% 43% 47% 37% 81% 90% 6% 47% 37% 38% 65% 66% 51% 39% 52% 28%

Dan Forest, the Republican 42% 41% 43% 25% 44% 48% 44% 52% 8% 6% 90% 33% 55% 45% 25% 26% 37% 54% 38% 61%

Steven DiFiore II, the Libertarian 1% 2% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2%

Al Pisano of the Constitution Party 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 4% 2% 3% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2%

Vol: Someone else 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%

Vol: Not voting for Governor 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%


Q8. If the 2020 Governor election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (with already voted and leaners)


Q7. If the 2020 U.S. Senate election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: (with already voted and leaners)


Q6. Have you decided you´ll definitely vote for [CANDIDATE NAME] or is there still some chance you could change your mind?


Q5. (If voting for Joe Biden) Is your vote more of a vote for Joe Biden or a vote against Donald Trump?






MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Strongly approve 33% 32% 33% 13% 30% 41% 36% 42% 5% 3% 72% 25% 44% 35% 22% 17% 33% 40% 31% 48%

Somewhat approve 13% 13% 14% 10% 20% 11% 11% 14% 4% 4% 19% 16% 21% 16% 9% 8% 8% 14% 14% 15%

Somewhat disapprove 6% 8% 4% 15% 8% 2% 4% 7% 4% 5% 2% 10% 9% 6% 2% 9% 4% 4% 6% 7%

Strongly disapprove 44% 41% 46% 54% 38% 44% 45% 33% 81% 85% 5% 45% 23% 37% 61% 66% 52% 36% 45% 26%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very enthusiastic 67% 66% 69% 46% 57% 75% 81% 68% 72% 77% 76% 54% 69% 65% 55% 71% 71% 71% 71% 67%

Somewhat enthusiastic 20% 20% 20% 34% 24% 17% 13% 20% 19% 17% 17% 25% 19% 21% 26% 15% 19% 20% 18% 20%

Not very enthusiastic 7% 7% 6% 11% 11% 4% 4% 7% 3% 2% 5% 12% 7% 8% 6% 8% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Not at all enthusiastic 5% 7% 3% 8% 7% 4% 2% 5% 4% 2% 2% 8% 4% 5% 8% 5% 6% 3% 4% 5%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 34% 30% 37% 11% 32% 39% 43% 43% 2% 2% 74% 26% 49% 35% 19% 20% 30% 45% 28% 53%

Somewhat favorable 13% 16% 10% 12% 18% 14% 9% 15% 5% 4% 18% 17% 18% 17% 15% 6% 5% 14% 16% 14%

Somewhat unfavorable 6% 7% 5% 14% 8% 3% 2% 7% 3% 2% 3% 11% 8% 8% 3% 5% 2% 5% 7% 7%

Very unfavorable 45% 43% 46% 61% 40% 42% 45% 34% 85% 89% 5% 43% 22% 36% 62% 68% 58% 35% 47% 26%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 30% 26% 33% 21% 23% 31% 39% 20% 68% 71% 2% 21% 15% 29% 40% 40% 34% 23% 28% 15%





Q12. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression

of each? Joe Biden


[Q11-Q17 ROTATED] Q11. I´m going to read a few names of people or organizations in public life and I´d like you to tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very

unfavorable impression of each? Donald Trump


Q10. And when it comes to the November election, would you say you´re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting, or not at all enthusiastic?








MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 19% 18% 20% 13% 13% 20% 26% 14% 42% 45% 3% 12% 12% 18% 25% 24% 19% 17% 18% 11%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 15% 13% 17% 6% 10% 19% 21% 18% 7% 3% 35% 9% 19% 16% 9% 11% 15% 18% 11% 21%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 25% 20% 28% 12% 20% 29% 29% 17% 54% 61% 1% 17% 13% 22% 42% 32% 31% 18% 26% 12%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 30% 30% 31% 6% 27% 38% 38% 39% 3% 2% 66% 24% 48% 35% 16% 17% 24% 36% 30% 45%






of each? Mike Pence



of each? Kamala Harris



of each? Thom Tillis



of each? Cal Cunningham






MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Very favorable 34% 31% 36% 63% 30% 29% 27% 26% 68% 71% 7% 28% 31% 30% 45% 45% 39% 25% 31% 22%





Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 52% 51% 53% 75% 51% 46% 48% 40% 91% 93% 10% 56% 32% 48% 71% 71% 60% 38% 54% 31%

Donald Trump 41% 40% 41% 19% 40% 47% 46% 52% 3% 3% 85% 35% 60% 45% 25% 22% 31% 53% 40% 59%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 43% 40% 46% 59% 36% 41% 44% 31% 85% 90% 4% 40% 24% 39% 60% 59% 53% 32% 42% 24%

Donald Trump 52% 55% 51% 37% 59% 55% 53% 65% 9% 7% 94% 56% 73% 56% 39% 31% 44% 65% 56% 71%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 46% 46% 47% 64% 43% 43% 46% 34% 88% 92% 5% 47% 31% 41% 63% 63% 58% 34% 48% 26%

Donald Trump 48% 48% 49% 29% 51% 53% 51% 60% 6% 5% 92% 47% 66% 55% 34% 26% 37% 61% 46% 69%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 47% 46% 48% 71% 44% 41% 46% 36% 89% 93% 6% 46% 34% 40% 64% 70% 60% 32% 49% 27%

Donald Trump 44% 44% 45% 22% 47% 49% 49% 56% 4% 3% 89% 41% 64% 48% 33% 24% 36% 55% 45% 63%








[Q18-Q22 ROTATED] Q18. Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues: The coronavirus pandemic



of each? The Black Lives Matter Movement






MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Joe Biden 46% 44% 48% 62% 42% 44% 46% 35% 87% 91% 6% 46% 27% 39% 64% 68% 58% 35% 49% 26%

Donald Trump 49% 50% 48% 30% 54% 52% 50% 61% 6% 5% 92% 47% 66% 56% 33% 26% 41% 58% 47% 69%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Addressing the coronavirus pandemic 41% 46% 37% 58% 38% 38% 40% 35% 60% 68% 11% 45% 28% 33% 54% 64% 46% 34% 44% 28%

Addressing law and order 50% 47% 53% 38% 55% 56% 47% 57% 29% 22% 80% 49% 61% 58% 39% 29% 43% 60% 50% 62%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Too quickly 13% 12% 14% 32% 11% 9% 9% 11% 19% 20% 4% 15% 13% 12% 11% 14% 20% 11% 10% 11%

Too slowly 29% 31% 28% 19% 34% 34% 26% 35% 12% 10% 48% 31% 41% 31% 21% 23% 29% 30% 29% 38%

About right 55% 54% 56% 48% 53% 56% 59% 52% 68% 69% 44% 53% 46% 55% 68% 62% 45% 54% 60% 47%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Riots in American cities 41% 40% 43% 17% 40% 47% 51% 51% 8% 10% 75% 40% 55% 43% 31% 21% 41% 52% 42% 56%

Racism in the criminal justice system 51% 51% 50% 79% 55% 46% 39% 40% 86% 85% 17% 52% 38% 51% 64% 69% 51% 37% 52% 33%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+




55% 52% 57% 70% 50% 52% 54% 47% 81% 84% 26% 55% 46% 52% 64% 64% 61% 49% 51% 44%




35% 37% 33% 24% 39% 39% 32% 42% 11% 10% 60% 34% 44% 37% 30% 28% 28% 38% 38% 45%
















MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Democratic control of the Senate 44% 43% 45% 61% 37% 40% 47% 33% 82% 90% 3% 42% 28% 37% 59% 68% 48% 35% 45% 26%

Republican control of the Senate 48% 50% 47% 35% 49% 54% 50% 61% 9% 5% 96% 45% 66% 54% 35% 28% 43% 56% 49% 68%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+


controlled by the same party66% 64% 68% 64% 62% 70% 69% 70% 58% 72% 73% 56% 61% 62% 71% 67% 64% 73% 67% 72%


controlled by different parties22% 25% 20% 33% 24% 20% 20% 19% 34% 20% 17% 31% 24% 23% 21% 23% 24% 21% 22% 17%

No difference 2% 3% 2% 0% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 0% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+


Democrats will control both the Senate

and the White House

49% 47% 51% 38% 52% 51% 51% 58% 18% 14% 84% 48% 63% 55% 33% 31% 41% 60% 46% 66%



and the White House

47% 48% 45% 60% 45% 45% 44% 38% 78% 84% 13% 46% 32% 40% 62% 64% 58% 38% 50% 30%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Donald Trump 50% 48% 51% 39% 57% 51% 48% 59% 11% 15% 86% 48% 66% 52% 41% 33% 49% 56% 52% 63%

Joe Biden 38% 42% 35% 48% 32% 37% 39% 29% 73% 75% 8% 37% 21% 35% 52% 55% 40% 30% 38% 24%














MOE +/- 4.3%

Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 8% 12% 4% 8% 10% 9% 5% 9% 5% 7% 9% 9% 10% 7% 12% 7% 4% 9% 10% 8%

Not doing enough 44% 40% 47% 54% 37% 47% 39% 36% 70% 69% 21% 44% 36% 43% 44% 44% 60% 40% 40% 33%

Doing about the right amount 43% 43% 44% 32% 48% 42% 49% 50% 22% 21% 67% 42% 50% 46% 37% 45% 28% 47% 45% 53%


Total M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White

Afr Amer

/Black Dem Rep

Ind/

Other

CLT


Raleigh

/Durham

Triad/Urban

Crescent West

Whites

with BA+

Whites

without BA+

Doing too much 13% 15% 11% 11% 15% 14% 10% 14% 5% 5% 20% 13% 14% 15% 3% 5% 12% 19% 11% 16%

Not doing enough 43% 43% 44% 50% 39% 43% 43% 34% 74% 73% 16% 41% 31% 34% 62% 60% 55% 34% 43% 29%

Doing about the right amount 40% 39% 40% 35% 44% 39% 40% 47% 20% 19% 58% 41% 50% 46% 33% 32% 25% 41% 43% 49%




Q31. Do you think the federal government is doing too much to support the economy during the pandemic, not doing enough to support the economy during the pandemic, or is doing about the right amount?






MOE +/- 4.3%

Gender

Male 46%

Female 53%

Age

18 to 29 15%

30 to 44 23%

45 to 64 36%

65 and older 25%

Race/Ethnicity

White 70%

Afr Amer/Black 19%

Non-White 10%


Democrat 30%

Republican 32%


Region

CLT Metro 10%

East 30%

Mecklenburg 10%

Raleigh /Durham 16%

Triad/Urban Crescent 11%

West 22%

Race & Education



Education


Some College 34%


Graduate degree 13%

2016 Vote

Hillary Clinton 37%

Donald Trump 42%

Other 4%

Didn't vote 14%

Party Registration

Democrat 35%

Republican 32%



North Carolina Likely Voters


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Transcript of New e ( ˆ4 ˛ ( . 8 ˛ ( ˆ4$,( ˛%˜.˙# ˘ˇˆ˙ ˘˙'˙ l M F 9 4 4 + e ˝ ˛ r m p r ... · 1...