New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty Waterwise – setting up for regional...

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty

Waterwise – setting up for regional application

Paul van Walsum


Overview

Modelling

Input data

Setting up and using the model


Multi-level modelling

economy ecology hydrology

complex

reduction

simple

verification

Integrated model


Mathematical form of integrated model

x1, x2,... vector of decision variables x

xi = 0 : no, you do not do it

xi = 1 : yes, you do it

g1x1 + g2x2 + .. objective function gx --> max

a11x1 + a12x2 + .. <b1 constraints Ax < b

a21x1 + a22x2 + .. <b2


Non-linear effects: piece-wise linear functions

Areaal consumptie aardappelen (ha)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Opbrengst(kfl/jaar)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Area of potatoes (ha)

Yield


Modelling methods in optimization models

Embedding of submodel

“Repro”-method


Embedding method

Includes model in the matrix

Disadvantage: high computational load

Advantage: More general, less customizing needed


“Repro”-method

Reproduces input-output responses

Advantage: small computational load

Disadvantage: requires calibration


Regional influencing through GW & SW

pressure wave

droplet movement, including substances

Stream/river

Deep groundwater

Soil water

Shallow groundwater

r1 r2

Drai-nage

Land use

Extraction for

sprinkling


Waterwise meta-modelling components

Local perturbations (by land and water management actions)

– experiments with simulation model (“repro-method”)

Regional transmissions (groundwater and surface water)

– embedded for surface water quantity

– repro for groundwater “wave” effects

– embedded for water quality (GW & SW)

Effects (on economy, ecology, water)

– repro


Option table (example)


Surface water quantity: perturbations

Obtain through sensitivity analyses with simulation model

Example: peak flow contribution


Surface water quantity: perturbations (continued)

05-10-98 19-10-98 02-11-98 16-11-98 30-11-98

Waterstand (m +NAP)

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Bovenstrooms, zonder stremmingBovenstrooms, met stremmingBenedenstrooms, zonder stremmingBenedenstrooms, met stremmingMaaiveld bij uitstroompunt

05-10-98 19-10-98 02-11-98 16-11-98 30-11-98

Afvoer (m3/s)

0.0000

0.0005

0.0010

0.0015

0.0020

0.0025

0.0030

Zonder stremmingMet stremming

05-10-98 19-10-98 02-11-98 16-11-98 30-11-98

Waterstand (m +NAP)

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Bovenstrooms, zonder stremmingBovenstrooms, met stremmingBenedenstrooms, zonder stremmingBenedenstrooms, met stremmingMaaiveld bij uitstroompunt

Discharge (m3 s-1)Water level (m)


Surface water quantity: transmissions

Cascade of linear reservoirs:

– Storage ≤ capacity

– Flow = linear function of storage + over flow

Unit hydrograph method2D Graph 1

X Data

0 20 40 60

Q

0

1

2

Observed monthly averagesSimulated monthly averagesSimulated monthly averages, using monthly Pnet

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Series1


Surface water quantity: effects

Direct

– Costs of undershooting desired minimum flows

– Costs of flood damage

Indirect:

– Yield of water management options that require water


Groundwater quantity: overview

eenheidsverhogingfreatische potentiaal

k2

K1

berekend effect

k1 k22) watertable changes

3) superimposition of effects on aquifer heads

5) watertable changes

4) X calibration factors

1) measures inagriculture areaarea

6) effects in nature area


Derivation of influence matrix

Use analytical formula

(steady-state, multi-layer)

Top view

Model cell (i)

j

a(i)/p(j)

i

j

a(i)/p(j)IM =


Calibration of influence matrix

Hnature = f · [IM] • H agriculture


Verification of influence matrix(1) without nonlinearity correction (2) using piece-wise function

Stijging GVGaquifer, Waterwijs (cm)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Stijging GVGaquifer, SIMGRO (cm)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Stijging GVGaquifer, Waterwijs (cm)

0 5 10 15 20 25

Stijging GVGaquifer, SIMGRO (cm)

0

5

10

15

20

25


Groundwater quantity: effects

Derive tabular functions from sensitivity analyses

eenheidsverhogingfreatische potentiaal

k2

K1

berekend effect

k1 k22) watertable changes

3) superimposition of effects on aquifer heads

5) watertable changes

4) X calibration factors

1) measures inagriculture areaarea

6) effects in nature area


Water quality

Fixed water flows (long-term averages)

Complete mixing of substances

Decay coefficients

CN,g,i,2

CN,s,i

layer 1

layer 2

cell i

layer ..


Water quality:

Quantity changes can have significant impacts on water quality transmission

In that case run model repeatedly, known as SLP, “Successive Linear Programming”


Input data Table 2. List of input files Input file Required/

optional Description

wwsets.xls req sets wwdelt.xls req time interval of water quantity modelling wwcontrol.xls req control file alutotmax req control file for max. area of land use allowed in whole

region xcsfx.csv req control file for retaining current situation xlufx.csv req control file for retaining current land use xagfx.csv req control file for retaining current agricultural area xnafx.csv req control file for retaining current nature area xurfx.csv req control file for retaining current urban area bx.csv req control file for enabling/disabling options a.csv req gross areas of subregions/ planning units ap.csv req net planning areas of subregions aluref.csv req areas of land use in current situation ylu.csv req economic yield of land use clu.csv req cost of land use cwm.csv req cost of water management option cxl.csv req cost of changing to new land use depyaldyref.csv req yield depressions of arable land, due to dry conditions,

current situation depyaldy.csv req yield depressions of arable land, due to dry conditions,

with water management option depyalwtref.csv req yield depressions of arable land, due to wet con. depyalwt.csv req yield depressions of arable land, due to wet con. depygldyref.csv req yield depressions of grasslland, due to dry con. depygldy.csv req yield depressions of grassland, due to dry con. depyglwtref.csv req yield depressions of grasslland, due to wetcon. depyglwt.csv req yield depressions of grassland, due to wet con. kinr.csv req connections between inflow points of subregions and

nodes of surface water network nazn.csv opt definition of nature zones im.csv opt influence matrix of groundwater fsh.csv opt calibration factor of influence matrix model

fsh.csv opt calibration factor of influence matrix model fss.csv opt calibration factor of influence matrix model fls.csv opt calibration factor of influence matrix model fll.csv opt calibration factor of influence matrix model delmhwwm opt change of mhw due to water management delmswwm opt change of msw due to water management delmlwwm opt change of mlw due to water management delmsamn opt boundary conditions for DELMSA delmlamn opt boundary conditions for DELMLA koutr.csv req connections between outflow points of subregions and

nodes of surface water network kinj.csv req connections between surface water nodes and inflow ends

of trajectories koutj.csv req connections between surface water nodes and outflow

ends of trajectories typej.csv req type of trajectory binmlj.csv req idenitifiers of multiple links with binary choice uh.csv req unit hydrographs storswinitj.csv req initial storages in reservoir links storswmxj.csv req capacities of reservoir links qswout1mxj req outflow gate capacities of reservoir links qswoutmxj.csv opt maximum allowed flows through trajectories qswmntarj.csv req lower bound targets for low flow qswmxtarj.csv req upper bound targets for high flows cqswmnj.csv req penalty costs undershooting minimum flow cqswmxj.csv req penalty costs for overshooting maximum flows wdwmref.csv req water demands of current situation wdwm.csv req water demands of water management options wswmref.csv req water supplies of current situation wswm.csv req water supplies of water management options ncgwmx.csv opt maximum allowed NO3-N concentration in groundwater ncgwref.csv opt NO3-N concentration current situation ncgw.csv opt NO3-N concentration below land use/ water management

option ndcly.csv opt decay coefficients of NO3-N in groundwater


Excursion through data: surface water quantity

Perturbations– measures

– upstream flow effects

Surface water model– schematization of network

- unit hydrograph

Effects- target flows

- costs of deviations


Perturbations

Measures = File wwsets.xls

Flow effects = file wsref.xls and wswm.xls


Surface water transmission

Files for schematization

- kinr.csv and koutr.csv

- kinj.csv and koutj.csv

- typej.csv

- binmlj.csv

Unit hydrograph875 1 1886 1 1903 1 1904 1 1907 1 1908 1 1909 1 1912 1 1913 1 1917 1 1929 1 1


Economic effects of flows

Target flows:

- minimum flows

- maximum flows

Costs

– undershooting minimum targets

– overshooting maximum targets


Highlight 1: master control file

Wwcontrol.xls

optpar 0 1 -11 optsol 0 optimization method SIMPLEX Newton Barrier2 optxch 1 costs of land use change no costs costs3 bndpfl 0 peak flow no control upper bound4 bndncgw 0 maximum N-concentration GW no control upper bound5 bndncsw 0 maximum N-concentration SW no control upper bound no files needed6 optncsw 1 include N-load on SW via deep GW no yes7 bndpcsw -1 maximum P-concentration SW no control upper bound no files needed8 bndwnat 0 water tables wet nature areas no control lower bound


Highlight 2: files for restricting decision space

Input file Required/ optional

Description

alutotmax req control file for max. area of land use allowed in whole region

xcsfx.csv req control file for retaining current situation xlufx.csv req control file for retaining current land use xagfx.csv req control file for retaining current agricultural area xnafx.csv req control file for retaining current nature area xurfx.csv req control file for retaining current urban area bx.csv req control file for enabling/disabling options


Overview of setting up and using model

Sets of measures

SIMGRO/ANIMO/

Waternood

Sensitivity study

Measures

Stakeholders

Waterwise

Stakeholders

goals / boundaryconditions

Adaptationstrategy

Sensitivity study

SIMGRO/ANIMO/

Waternood

Verification

Sets of measures

SIMGRO/ANIMO/

Waternood

Sensitivity study

Measures

Stakeholders

Waterwise

Stakeholders

goals / boundaryconditions

Adaptationstrategy

Sensitivity study

SIMGRO/ANIMO/

Waternood

Verification


Procedure for setting up Waterwise

1. Start with the objectives!

2. Transmission links

3. Identify measures:

• submeasures

• Combinations

4. Make planning units

…

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