Neurology & Neuroscience Journal - Seizure Prediction with … · 2019-10-15 · component analysis...

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2019 Vol.10 No.2:294 Research Article DOI: 10.36648/2171-6625.10.2.294 iMedPub Journals www.imedpub.com Journal of Neurology and Neuroscience ISSN 2171-6625 1 © Under License of Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License | This article is available in: www.jneuro.com Hafeez A. Agboola 1 , Colette Solebo 2 , David S. Aribike 1 , Afolabi E. Lesi 3 and Alfred A. Susu 1 * 1 Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria 2 Research and Innovaon Office, Office of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academics and Research), University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria 3 Faculty of Clinical Sciences, Department of Paediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria *Corresponding author: Dr. Alfred A. Susu [email protected] Department of Chemical & Petroleum Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria Tel: +31887574379 (OR) 31681151868 Citation: Agboola HA, Solebo C, Aribike DS, Lesi AE, Susu AA (2019) Seizure Predicon with Adapve Feature Representaon Learning. J Neurol Neurosci Vol.10 No.02:294. Seizure Predicon with Adapve Feature Representaon Learning Abstract Epilepsy cannot be successfully treated through medicaons or resecon in about 30% of paents. Furthermore, an esmated 0.1 percent of epilepc paents suffer sudden deaths resulng from injuries sustained during seizures. For this reason, paents with intractable seizures need alternave therapeuc approaches. An engineered device tailored toward seizure predicon that warns paents of an impending seizure or that intervenes to prevent its occurrence may significantly decrease the burden of epilepsy. Although much research efforts have been directed at the development of a seizure predicon algorithm, a therapeuc or warning device that meets stringent clinical requirements is sll elusive. In the present study a novel paent-specific seizure predicon method is proposed. The method is based on me-frequency analysis of scalp electroencephalogram (sEEG) and the use of state-of-the-art unsupervised feature representaon learning techniques: reconstrucon independent component analysis and sparse filtering. In a moving window analysis, a novel engineered bivariate EEG characterizing measure named Normalized Logarithmic Wavelet Packet Coefficient Energy Raos (NLWPCER) was extracted from all possible combinaon of EEG channels and relevant frequency sub - bands. Thereaſter unsupervised representaon learning algorithm adapted to each paent through Bayesian opmizaon procedure was used to learn NLWPCER features representaon or transformaon suitable for data classificaon task. Two classificaon models: Arficial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were developed and trained to learn preictal (pre-seizure) and interictal (normal) EEG feature vector paerns. The output of the classifiers was regularized through a post processing operaon aimed at reducing false predicon rate (FPR) and making decision on the generaon of predicon alarms. The proposed method was evaluated using approximately 545 h CHB-MIT scalp EEG recording of 17 paents with a total of 43 leading seizures. On the average, with SVM classifier the proposed seizure predicon algorithm achieved a sensivity of 87.26% and false predicon rate of 0.08h -1 while with ANN classifier the algorithm achieved average sensivity and false predicon rate of 75.49% and 0.13h -1 respecvely. The proposed method was validated using an Analyc Random Predictor (ARP). The results obtained in this work opens a pathway for a robust and consistent real-me portable seizure predicon device suitable for clinical applicaons. Keywords: Electroencephalogram; Epilepc seizure predicon; Normalized Logarithmic Wavelet Packet Coefficients Energy Raos (NLWPCER); Feature representaon learning Received: February 04, 2019; Accepted: March 15, 2019; Published: March 22, 2019 Introducon Epilepsy constutes a chronic brain disorder. It affects almost 1% of the world’s populaon. This neurological ailment is associated with recurrent, unprovoked epilepc seizures resulng from a sudden disturbance of brain funcon. One parcular disabling aspect of epilepc seizures is their sudden and unpredictable nature, liming paents’ acvies and resulng in poor quality

Transcript of Neurology & Neuroscience Journal - Seizure Prediction with … · 2019-10-15 · component analysis...

Page 1: Neurology & Neuroscience Journal - Seizure Prediction with … · 2019-10-15 · component analysis were used to improve classificationaccuracy of normal and pre-seizure intracranial

2019Vol.10 No.2:294

Research Article

DOI: 10.36648/2171-6625.10.2.294

iMedPub Journalswww.imedpub.com

Journal of Neurology and NeuroscienceISSN 2171-6625

1© Under License of Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License | This article is available in: www.jneuro.com

Hafeez A. Agboola1, Colette Solebo2, David S. Aribike1, Afolabi E. Lesi3 and Alfred A. Susu1*1 Department of Chemical and Petroleum

Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria

2 ResearchandInnovationOffice,Officeofthe Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academics and Research), University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria

3 Faculty of Clinical Sciences, Department of Paediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria

*Corresponding author: Dr. Alfred A. Susu

[email protected]

Department of Chemical & Petroleum Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria

Tel: +31887574379(OR)31681151868

Citation: Agboola HA, Solebo C, Aribike DS, LesiAE,SusuAA(2019)SeizurePredictionwithAdaptiveFeatureRepresentationLearning. J Neurol Neurosci Vol.10 No.02:294.

Seizure Prediction with Adaptive Feature Representation Learning

AbstractEpilepsycannotbesuccessfullytreatedthroughmedicationsorresectioninabout30%ofpatients.Furthermore,anestimated0.1percentofepilepticpatientssuffersuddendeathsresultingfrominjuriessustainedduringseizures.Forthisreason,patientswith intractable seizures need alternative therapeutic approaches. Anengineereddevice tailored towardseizureprediction thatwarnspatientsofanimpendingseizureorthatintervenestopreventitsoccurrencemaysignificantlydecrease the burden of epilepsy. Although much research efforts have beendirectedatthedevelopmentofaseizurepredictionalgorithm,atherapeuticorwarningdevice thatmeets stringentclinical requirements is stillelusive. In thepresentstudyanovelpatient-specificseizurepredictionmethodisproposed.Themethodisbasedontime-frequencyanalysisofscalpelectroencephalogram(sEEG)and the use of state-of-the-art unsupervised feature representation learningtechniques:reconstructionindependentcomponentanalysisandsparsefiltering.In amovingwindow analysis, a novel engineered bivariate EEG characterizingmeasurenamedNormalizedLogarithmicWaveletPacketCoefficientEnergyRatios(NLWPCER) was extracted from all possible combination of EEG channels andrelevantfrequencysub-bands.ThereafterunsupervisedrepresentationlearningalgorithmadaptedtoeachpatientthroughBayesianoptimizationprocedurewasused to learnNLWPCER features representationor transformation suitable fordataclassificationtask.Twoclassificationmodels:ArtificialNeuralNetwork(ANN)and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were developed and trained to learn preictal (pre-seizure)andinterictal(normal)EEGfeaturevectorpatterns.Theoutputoftheclassifierswasregularizedthroughapostprocessingoperationaimedatreducingfalsepredictionrate(FPR)andmakingdecisiononthegenerationofpredictionalarms.Theproposedmethodwasevaluatedusingapproximately545hCHB-MITscalpEEG recordingof 17patientswitha total of 43 leading seizures. On theaverage,withSVMclassifiertheproposedseizurepredictionalgorithmachievedasensitivityof87.26%andfalsepredictionrateof0.08h-1whilewithANNclassifierthe algorithm achieved average sensitivity and false prediction rate of 75.49%and 0.13h-1 respectively.TheproposedmethodwasvalidatedusinganAnalyticRandomPredictor(ARP).Theresultsobtainedinthisworkopensapathwayforarobustandconsistentreal-timeportableseizurepredictiondevicesuitableforclinicalapplications.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram; Epileptic seizure prediction; NormalizedLogarithmic Wavelet Packet Coefficients Energy Ratios (NLWPCER); Featurerepresentationlearning

Received: February 04, 2019; Accepted: March 15, 2019; Published: March 22, 2019

IntroductionEpilepsyconstitutesachronicbraindisorder.Itaffectsalmost1%oftheworld’spopulation.Thisneurologicalailmentisassociated

with recurrent, unprovoked epileptic seizures resulting from asudden disturbance of brain function. One particular disablingaspect of epileptic seizures is their sudden and unpredictable nature, limitingpatients’activitiesandresulting inpoorquality

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of life. Common treatment for epilepsy is throughmedicationand surgery but these not only have grave repercussions or side effects [1] but also fail to satisfactorily control seizures inapproximatelyone-thirdofaffectedpatients.A reliableseizureprediction system based on electroencephalogram (EEG) maysignificantly enhance the quality of life and safety of sufferersand increase the chance of controlling seizures by administering therapeuticagentsasearlyaspossible.

Seizurepredictionisbasedonthehypothesisthatthereexistsatransitionstate(preictal)betweentheinterictal(normal)andtheictal(seizure)states.Therearenumbersofclinicalevidencethatsupportthishypothesis.Theseincludeincreasesincerebralbloodflow [2]andcerebraloxygenation [3].Accordingly, researchershave invested a great deal of effort over the last decades onattemptingtopredictepilepticseizuresbasedonEEGsignals.

Le et al. [4] proposed a method to anticipate seizures usingthe similarity between an interictal reference and the current windowsofEEGbasedonanonlinearanalysisofzero-crossingintervals.TheyappliedthisalgorithmtoscalpEEGsignals from23 patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) which resultedin 96% sensitivity and an average anticipation time of 7 min.Analyzing depth EEG recordings from five patients with TLE,Iasemidis et al. [5] developed an adaptive seizure predictionmethod based on the convergence of the “short-term maximum Lyapunov exponents” of the critical electrodes. They reported82.6% sensitivity alongwith a false prediction rate of 0.17 h-1 (preictalperiodswerenotexcluded)andanaveragepredictiontimeof 100.3min for a test dataset.Hively andProtopopescu[6] proposed a channel-consistent epileptic seizure predictionapproach based on phase-space dissimilarity measures and appliedittosurfaceEEGfrom41patientsresultinginasensitivityof87.5%witha falsepositive rateof0.021h-1 and an average predictiontimeof∼35 min. In a work reported by Chisci et al. [7], the performance of an algorithm based on AR modelingof EEG signalswas assessed using intracranial recordings fromninepatients.Anonlinearsupportvectormachine(SVM)withaGaussiankernelwasemployedtoclassifyafeaturevectormadeupoftheAutoRegressive(AR)coefficientsforeachmultichannelEEGepoch,whereaKalmanfilteringprocedurewasconsideredinthepostprocessingstep.Thestudyreported100%sensitivityand the average false prediction rate and average predictiontime,respectively,rangingfrom0to0.60h-1 and ∼5 to 92 min.

Manyoftheearlyseizurepredictionstudiesshowedthatfeaturesderived through linear and non-linear EEG analysis weresuccessful indetectingchangeswithinminutestohoursbeforeseizure onset [8]. However, it was later discovered that thesestudiessuffer fromseriousmethodologicalandstatisticalflawsas later research works gave contradictory seizure predictability results [9-13]. Therefore, the question of seizure predictabilityappearsopenduemainlytomethodologicalandstatisticalflawsinseveraloftheliteraturereports[14].Topromotemethodologicalqualityandpracticalassessmentofseizurepredictionalgorithms,guidelinesandstatisticalframeworkshavebeenproposed[15-20].

Generally, the guidelines proposed by Mormann et al. [14]as requirements for a practical prediction method can be

summarized as follows:

• Thepredictionpowerofanalgorithmshouldbedemonstratedthroughprospectiverandomizedcontrolledtestsusinglong-lasting,continuousandunseenEEGrecordings.

• Testdatashouldbeindependentfromanytrainingdatathatisusedtooptimizethealgorithm.

• Theperformanceofanalgorithmshouldbereportedintermsofsensitivityandspecificityonthetestdata.

• Sinceanaverageof3.6 seizuresperday (i.e., 0.15 seizuresperhour) is recordedduringepilepsymonitoring [21], falsepredictionrateswhicharemeasurespecificityabove0.15/haredeemedquestionable.

• For algorithmsdesigned todrive interventional devices theminimum intervention time (IT) defined as the minimumintervalbetweenanalarmandthebeginningofthepredictionhorizon [11] must be used as additional constraint whenevaluatingseizurepredictionperformance.

Aftertheintroductionoftheseizurepredictionmethodguidelinesdiscussed above, many researchers have published series of articlesshowingvarious levelofconformitytotheseguidelinesandutilizingseveraltime,frequencyandtime-frequencydomaintechniques either in a linear or nonlinear fashion [7,22,23].Despite the promising results reported in these research works, therestillseemstobenoendinsighttotheseizurepredictionchallenge as no method exists to date that is robust and consistent enough for clinical deployment. Therefore, there is need toexploreandexploitnewmethods forseizureprediction. Inthecurrent study a new seizure prediction approach is presentedfollowing the seizure prediction guidelines described above.SincescalpandintracranialEEGpossessacharacteristicpatternthat varies across individuals with epilepsy both in non-seizure andseizurestates[24],themethodpresentedhereresultinginseizurepredictionalgorithmsispatientspecific.

The method uses state of the art unsupervised featurerepresentationlearningtechniques(reconstructionindependentcomponentanalysis[25]andsparsefiltering[26])inanadaptivemanner toobtainuseful representationofanewlyengineeredEEGfeature:NormalizedLogarithmicWaveletPacketCoefficientsEnergy Ratio (NLWPCER) which is derived from EEG WaveletPacketTransform[27]topredictseizures.Unsupervisedfeaturerepresentation learning consists of set of methods that mapinput features (engineered or “low level features”) to new output features (“high level features”)without any information aboutclasslabels(i.e.,pre-siezureornormal)ofdata.Coatesetal.[28]clearly showed that very simple unsupervised learning algorithms (such as k-means clustering), when properly tuned, can generate representationsofthedatathatallowevenbasicclassifiers,suchas a linear support vector machine, to achieve state-of-the-art performances.Thegeneral ideabehindrepresentationlearningistolearnatransformationthatmapsdatainalow-levelfeature(engineered features) space into high level feature space where classificationruleiseasiertolearn,andthegeneralizingabilityofclassifierisimproved

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Specifically, sparse filtering and reconstruction independentcomponentanalysiswereusedtoimproveclassificationaccuracyofnormalandpre-seizureintracranialEEG(iEEG)featurevectors.Inaddition, thepresent studyseeks tocarryoutaprospectiveseizure prediction study on long term scalp EEG (sEEG)recordingsofpatientswith intractableseizures.ScalpEEGdatamade available for researchers by Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology(MIT)andChildren’sHospitalBoston(CHB)wasused.ThedatabaseconsistsofscalpEEGrecordingsfromtwenty-threepatientswithintractableseizures.

Totesttheproposedmethodforprospectiveseizureprediction,twoclassifiers:supportvectormachine(SVM)andartificialneuralnetwork (ANN) were developed and trained to recognize and classifynormalandpre-seizureEEGfeaturevectors.Resultsfrommodel evaluationaswell asotherunresolved issues in seizureprediction problem such as sensitivity of seizure parametersespecially the prediction time on the theoreticalmethodologyused for prediction are discussed. The performance of theproposed method was compared with other published methods.

MethodologyWe present a detailed account of the proposed seizure predictionmethod.Described in themethodare threedistinctnovel contributions to seizure prediction studies. In section2.2.1,anewlyengineeredEEGfeature(NormalizedLogarithmicWaveletPacketCoefficientsEnergyRatio,NLWPCER)forseizurepredictionisintroduced.Insection2.2.2,theuseoftwopowerfulfeaturelearning,/representationalgorithms(SparseFilteringandReconstructionIndependentComponentAnalysis)isintroducedin seizure prediction studies for high level feature extraction.Feature learning algorithms have been shown to improve computer vision (image recognition or classification) tasks andspeechrecognitiontasks inrecentstudies[25,29-31].RICAandSFlearnedrepresentationsleadtoimprovedpreictal(presiezure)and normal (interictal) classification accuracies. Lastly, optimalhyperparameters configuration of the representation learning

function (adaptation) and classification algorithm used for theproposed seizure prediction method were obtained throughBayesian optimization technique. Figure 1 gives schematicrepresentationoftheproposedmethod.Thedetailedprocedureis presented in what follows.

Dataset description and extractionOneoftheveryfewpubliclyavailableEEGrecordingstoresearchersis the Children’s Hospital Boston – Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (CHB-MIT) dataset. The database consists of scalpEEG(sEEG)recordingsof23patientssuffering from intractableepilepticseizures.Intotaltherecordingsspanapproximately982hoursandcontains198seizures.Allsignalsweresampledat256samples per secondwith 16-bit resolution over 23 electrodes.The International 10-20 system of EEG electrode positionsand nomenclature was used for these recordings. The data isgrouped into cases with each case containing between 9 and 42 continuous .edf (European data format) files from a singlepatient. Information about the elapsed time in seconds fromthebeginningofeach.edffiletothebeginningandendofeachseizurecontainedinitisalsomadeavailableinthedataset.TheEEGdatacanbeaccessedthroughthePhysioNetwebsite:http://physionet.org/physiobank/database/chbmit/

Forsomefiles inthedataset,seizuresoccur inclusters,that is,one or more seizure events happened very close to a leading seizure. A leading seizure is one that is far away from the last seizure but followed closely by other seizures thereby ensuring moderatemixtureofpostictal(postseizure),interictal(normal)andpreictal(presiezure)dynamics.Theictal(seizure)timeshavebeenclearlydefined in thedatasetbyexpertsbutnomentionof the preictal and postictal times were made. Therefore, 25minutesofpostictaldataand60minutesofpreictaldatawereconsidered. In order to allow for therapeutic intervention, 5minutes of data immediately preceding seizure was not included inthepreictaldata.Theremainingdatawerethentakenasthe

EEGPREPROCESSING

CLASSIFIER DESIGN

LOW LEVELFEATURE

EXTRACTION(ENGINEERED

FEATURES)

CLASSIFIEROUTPUT

REGULARIZATION

HIGH LEVELFEATURE

EXTRACTION(LEARNEDFEATURES)

ALARMGENERATION

Schematicrepresentationof theproposedmethod forseizureprediction.

Figure 1

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interictal. Only patients with at least 2 seizures separated byat least a 2-hr period have their data extracted and used for this study. Approximately 187hours of EEG data containing 55seizuresweresetasideasthetrainingdatasetwhilethetestingsetconsistof545hoursofcontinuousEEGdatawith43seizureevents. EEG data in the .edf fileswere converted intoMatlabfiles (.mat) throughBIOSIGtoolbox interface for EEGLAB in theMatlab/Simulink environment. Before thedatawere extractedartefactremovaladd-insinEEGLABsuchasCLEANandARSwereused to remove artefacts from the data. Table 1 below reports theEEGdatafromtheCHB-MITdataset.

Feature extractionFeature engineering (Low level features): The importanceof bivariate measure profiles or features have already beendemonstrated in several seizure prediction studies. Thesefeaturesareusedtostudythetemporalevolutionofinteractionsbetween different brain regions as seizure events developtherebytrackingchangesinEEGrecordingsinbothtemporalandspatialdimensions.Anovelbivariatemeasurenamednormalizedlogarithmicwaveletpacketcoefficientsenergyratio(NLWPCER)is defined and used in this work. This feature measures theratio of wavelet packet coefficients energy of relevant EEGspectral bands i.e., delta (δ), theta (θ), alpha (α) and beta (β)whose frequency ranges are 0-4 Hz, 4-8 Hz, 8-15 Hz and 15-30 HzrespectivelyacrossthebandsandbetweenEEGchannels.A

window length of 5seconds or 1280 samples without overlap wasusedinthecalculationoftheNLWPCERfeatures.Foreachwindowand inall channels, fullwaveletpacketdecompositionwas carried out, then normalized logarithmic wavelet packet coefficientenergywasextractedfortherelevantdecompositionnodes. The normalized logarithmic wavelet packet coefficientenergy is given by

( ),

2

, ,log2j k

Tj k nn

w xe

jNΩ

= −

,j keΩ : NLWPCE feature extracted from subspace ,j kΩ

,

T

j kW x :Coefficientsevaluatedatsubspace ,j kΩ

2 jN− :Numberofthecoefficientsinthesubspace ,j kΩ

Thereafter,NLWPCERfeatureisdefinedas:

( )( )

,

,

,,

, , , ,1 23,1 23,

j k

j k

m

ym ny z n

z

m ne j jx

k key z

δ θ α βΩ

Ω

∈≤ ≤ ∈= ≤ ≤ ∈

Where ,

j,m n

zx is the NLWPCER features calculated for spectral band m of an epoch in channel y and spectral band n of an epoch withequaltimeindexinchannelz.Thisfeaturegivesthecrossenergy information not just between two channels but alsobetween frequency bands across channels. It is hoped that this

Patient Case Sex Age (yrs) Number of Seizures Duration of Seizure (hh:mm:ss) Ictal Duration (min)1 1 F 11 7 40:33:08 7.37 1 F 13 4 32:49:49 3.322 2 M 11 3 35:15:59 2.873 3 F 14 7 38:00:06 6.74 4 M 22 4 156:03:08 6.35 5 F 7 5 39:00:10 9.36 6 F 1.5 10 66:44:06 2.557 7 F 14.5 3 67:03:08 5.428 8 M 3.5 5 20:00:23 15.329 9 F 10 4 67:52:18 4.6

10 10 M 3 7 50:01:24 7.4511 11 F 12 3 34:47:37 13.4512 12 F 2 40 23:41:40 24.5813 13 F 3 12 33:00:00 8.9214 14 F 9 8 26:00:00 2.8215 15 M 16 20 40:00:36 33.216 16 F 7 10 19:00:00 1.417 17 F 12 3 21:00:24 4.5818 18 F 18 6 35:38:05 5.2819 19 F 19 3 29:55:46 3.9320 20 F 6 8 27:36:06 4.921 22 F 9 3 31:00:11 3.422 23 F 6 7 26:33:30 7.0423 24 16 21:17:47 8.52

Total 198 982:56:07 193.52*Cases1and2belongtothesamepatient(patient1)takenata2-yearintervalfromeachother.Therefore,thetotalnumberofpatientsis23.*Theageandsexinformationforcase24(patients23)wasnotmadeavailableinthedatabase.

Table 1Informationofpatientsin(1)CHB-MITdataset(all24cases)(2)thisstudy(red).

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newfeaturewillfindpreictaltrendsthatcanbeusedforseizureprediction.CalculatingtheNLWPCERmeasuresbetweentwoEEGchannels for P spectral bands give rise to P2 bivariate features therefore if P spectral bands are considered and Q channels arestudiedthenallpossiblepairwisecombinationsofspectralbands and channels will produce ( ) ( )2

22

12

Q p Q Qp

× −× = featuretime

series. With 4 spectral bands and 23 recording channels a total of 4048 NLWPCERfeaturetimeserieswereobtained.Tofurtherreducetheeffectofnoiseandartefacts,eachfeaturetimeserieswassmoothedwithaGaussian-weightedmovingaveragefilterwith a window length 15. Furthermore, each feature vector was normalizedintotheinterval[0-1].

Feature representation learning (High level features): Furthermore, good data representation for classification waslearnedbyextractinghighlevelfeaturesthroughfeaturelearningtechniques. Two newly introduced algorithms for extractinghigh level features are the sparse filtering (SF) algorithm andreconstruction independent component analysis (RICA). Theappropriate feature learning technique (SF or RICA) was chosen onaperpatientbasisthroughBayesianoptimizationprocedurewhichsearchesamongthefollowingfeatureextractionfunctionhyperparameters: iteration limit, solver (RICA or SF) andnumber of learned feature, q) effectively. SF ensures gooddata representation for classification purpose by conducting anonlinear map of data from low level feature space into a new higher or lower dimensional high-level feature space. RICA does the same by conducting a linearmap. SF and RICA algorithmswereimplementedinMatlabthroughthesparsefilt/ricafunctionsrespectively.Thesefunctionstakeasinputargumentsmatrix,Xof low-level feature data containing p (4048) features and q, the numberofhigh-levelfeaturestobeextractedfromX.Therefore,sparsefilt/ricalearnsap-by-qmatrixoftransformationweights,W.Forundercompleteorovercompletefeaturerepresentations,q can be less than or greater than the number of original predictor variables(features),respectively.TheMatlabfunctiontransformcompletestheprocessbytransformingXtothenewsetofhigh-levelfeaturesbyusingthelearnedtransformationweights.

Following the feature learning task all derived feature timeseries were exported into excel to form feature vectors and consequently training and testing datasetmatrices. Datawerearranged such thateach row in thematrices is anobservationand each column represent a variable (i.e., feature), for example a1-hourlongrawdatafilegenerateddatasetmatrixofdimension720 by q.

Labelling each observation (Data instance) Intheseizurepredictionexperiments,preictaltime(timeperiodimmediately prior to 5 minutes before seizure onset believed toholdpredictivemarkersof seizureactivity) areassumed foreachpatient.Inthisschemeallobservationsinthetimeperiod65-5minutesbeforeseizureonsetarelabelledaspreictalstatedata instances while other observations before the preictaltimesbutafterthepostictalperiodarelabelledasinterictalstatedatainstances.Theictalandpostictaldatawerenotincludedinthe training set since our aim is to predict seizure events. An

observationordatainstanceisafeaturevectorassociatedwithaspecificshorttimeinterval(i.e.,5secsinthiswork).Byassumingthispreictaltimethisworktriestoinvestigatethepossibilityofpredictingseizureevents65-5minutesinadvance.

Classifier design (SVM/ANN)Model learning: The proposed seizure prediction model usesbinary support vector machines (bSVM) classifier. The bSVMclassifier was implemented inMatlab using the statistical andmachinelearningtoolboxfunctions.AGaussiankernelspecificallytheradialbasisfunction(RBF)waschosenasthekernelfunctionafterpreliminaryexperimentsonallcasesrevealmeanaccuracyresults of 76.7% (s.d., 8.4%), 89% (s.d., 5.3%) and 98.5% (s.d.3.7%) respectively for linear,polynomial andGaussian kernels.Sincedata in seizurepredictionstudiesareusuallyunbalanced(i.e., more interictal data and less preictal and ictal data) and classificationalgorithmstendtoproducegreateraccuracyfortheclass with more training samples, a down sampling of the interictal samples was carried out to obtain a balance between the classes duringtraining.However,duringtestingnosuchdownsamplingwas done. The proposed model uses Bayesian optimizationtechnique in Matlab to tune the SVM hyper-parameters ‘Lamda’, λand‘Sigma’,σindependentlyforeachpatient.This isanovelcontribution in seizure prediction studies as earlier studiesusesGridsearchoptimizationtechnique.Bayesianoptimizationmaintains a Gaussian processmodel of the objective functionand uses objective function evaluations to train the model.Parameter λ controls the regularization strength of themodelwhileparameterσcontrolsthescaleofkernelfunction.

Anartificialneuralnetwork(ANN)classifierwasalsocreatedandtrainedusingtheneuralpatternrecognitiontoolbox inMatlab.A two-layer feed-forward network, with sigmoid hidden and softmaxoutputneuronswascreated.Thenetworkhas10hiddenand 2 output neurons andwas trained using scaled conjugategradientbackpropagation.Followingthetrainingofthepredictivemodels, theirperformanceswere testedwith the classificationandpredictionofseizuresintheunseentestingdataset.

Post processing classifier output (Regularization): In order to enhancepredictionperformanceandreducefalsepredictionsthealgorithm implements a post processing scheme which involves countingthenumberofsamplesclassifiedaspreictal.Amovingwindowwhosesizecorrespondstotheassumedpreictaltimeisconsidered.Ineachwindowameasureknownasthefiringpower(fp)[32,33]iscomputed.Thismeasurequantifiestheamountofsamplesclassifiedaspreictalandisdefinedby

[ ] [ ]n

k no k

fp n τ

τ= −= ∑

Where fp[n] is the firing power of the classifier’s output atdiscretetimen,τ,isthenumberofsamplescorrespondingtothepreictaltimeconsideredando[k]istheclassifieroutput.Tomakefp[n] a normalized function between and the value 1 was assignedtotheclassifieroutputifasampleisclassifiedaspreictaland the value 0 otherwise. Alarms are then raised when the fp[n] functionexceedsacertainthresholddefinedasapercentageof

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whichisthemaximumvalueofthefiringpowerfunction.

Performance descriptorsTheperformanceofthenewpredictionalgorithmwasevaluatedusing two descriptors: sensitivity (SS) which measures thepercentageofpredictedseizuresandfalsepredictionrate(FPR)whichmeasurestheamountoffalsealarmraisedperunittime(usually 1 hour). In order to comply with seizure predictioncharacteristicsphenomenon,theseizureoccurringperiod(SOP),animportantyardstickuponwhichourperformancemetricsaremeasuredwasdefined.TheSOPisthetimeperiodduringwhicha seizure is expected to occur.

Statistical validationThe proposed seizure prediction algorithm was validated bycomparing its performance against that of a random predictor, the analytic random predictor [34]. the probability of at leastpredictingn out of seizures using independent features by a randompredictorisgivenbytheBinomialdistribution

( ) ( ), , ,P 1 1d

N jN jj

j ñp d n N P P −

= − −

Where parameter P of the distribution approximated by1 FPR SOPp e− ×= − was calculated for eachpatientusing theFPR

and the number of correctly predicted seizures nforthatpatientbytheproposedmethod.Atasignificantlevelα=0.05theuppercriticalsensitivityoftherandompredictorisgivenas

arg max , , ,P 0.05100%n

RP

p d n NSS

N>

= ×

The performance of the proposed seizure prediction methodis considered significantly better than chance if the sensitivityachieved by the method SSM is greater than that of a random predictor.

Consistency of feature representation learningInthiswork,theuseoffeaturerepresentationlearning(orhigh-levelfeatureextraction)inseizurepredictionstudiesisintroduced.Toestablishtheusefulnessofthemethodthereisneedtoshow

Feature Extraction

Case

A B C D E FLow level features

77 features earlier studied

77 features earlier studied

24 NLWPCE features 24 NLWPCE features 160 NLWPCER

features160 NLWPCER

features

High level features Nil

Extracted via SparsefilteringorReconstruction

independent component analysis(i.e.patient

specific)

Nil

Extracted via SparsefilteringorReconstruction

independent component analysis(i.e.patient

specific)

Nil

Extracted via SarsefilteringorReconstruction

independent component analysis (i.e.patientspecific)

Table 2Sixdifferentschemesusedforcomparisonbetweenseizurepredictionsstudyusingonlyengineeredfeaturesandengineeredfeaturesplusfeaturerepresentationlearning(FRL).

0 10 20 30 40 50

time(hr)

-0.2

0

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1

1.2

firin

g po

wer

True Alarm

seizure

False Alarm False AlarmAlarmTrue Alarm

seizureseizure

threshold

Thefpfunction(bluecurve)for55hcontinuousrecordingsoftestdataforcase4describingthemechanismforalarmgeneration.Theareahighlighted inyellowrepresent60minutespreictalperiod,brownvertical linesmarkseizureonsets, redvertical linesmarkthetimeswhenalarmsareraisedandhorizontaldashedlineindicatethethresholdonfpforraisinganalarm.Thereare3truealarmsand2falsealarmsinentireperiod.

Figure 2

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thatthemethodisconsistent.Todothis,moreexamplesoftheimpactoffeaturerepresentationlearningonengineeredfeaturesshouldbestudied.Sixdifferentschemes(schemeAtoschemeF)wereconsidered.InschemesA,C&Edifferentsetsofengineeredfeatureswereextractedandused for seizurepredictionacrossallpatients. SchemesB,D&F consistedextractingengineeredfeaturesasinschemesA,BandCrespectivelybutwithadditionalpatient specific feature representation learning through sparsefiltering or reconstruction independent component analysisalgorithmsbefore being used for seizure prediction. Scheme Fistheparticularmethodusedinthiswork.Thepredictionresultsobtained from all the schemes were then compared. Table 2 givesinformationabouttheextractedfeaturesforeachscheme.

Sensitivity of seizure parameters to theoretical methodology used

Inareviewofdynamicalsystemsmodelingofepilepticseizuresforonsetprediction,Agboolaetal.[35]discussedsomeunresolvedissues in the seizure prediction problem. One of the issuesbordered on predictive onset times obtained from differentseizure prediction algorithms. The predictive times reportedin several of the works cited in the paper were found to vary substantiallyfromtheorderofafewsecondstoseveralhours.Thus,ithasbeenhypothesizedthatseizurepredictionparametersespeciallytheseizureonsetpredictiontimearesensitivetothetheoreticalmethodologyusedforseizureprediction.Toobservethisphenomenonintheproposedpredictionmethod,thetrendsofaveragepredictiontimesachievedthroughtheSVMclassifierfor different schemes discussed in section 3.8 were observedacrossschemes(A,B,EandF)andpatients

S/N Case Tst. Rec (hr)

No. Tst. Seiz.

SVM ANN

SS (%) FPR (per hour)

SSRP (%)

SOP (Min) p-value SS (%) FPR (per

hour)SSRP (%)

SOP (Min) p-value

1 1 32 2 100 0.03 50 30 0.001 50 0.02 0 20 0.022 2 27 2 100 0.04 0 50 0.02 100 0.14 50 20 0.013 3 30 2 100 0.06 0 20 0.015 100 0.01 0 30 0.0354 4 55 3 100 0.04 25 30 0.012 50 0.18 25 40 0.0135 5 25 3 66.7 0.11 33.3 30 0.015 33.3 0.21 66.7 30 0.0256 6 37 4 100 0.17 50 40 0.031 50 0.14 0 40 0.0417 7 28 1 100 0.03 0 40 0.034 100 0.12 0 30 0.0148 9 42 2 50 0.06 50 20 0.004 50 0.1 50 20 0.0129 10 26 3 100 0.18 66.7 30 0.042 100 0.08 66.7 30 0.034

10 12 19 4 100 0.02 0 30 0.004 100 0.15 0 40 0.00111 13 33 2 100 0.01 50 20 0.023 50 0.21 0 30 0.00212 14 40 2 50 0.01 0 40 0.003 50 0.02 0 20 0.01113 15 23 4 100 0.07 0 40 0.033 100 0.12 0 30 0.00314 18 21 2 100 0.21 0 20 0.002 100 0.22 0 30 0.01915 20 39 2 50 0.07 0 40 0.007 100 0.19 100 20 0.02716 22 32 2 100 0.02 0 30 0.011 50 0.18 0 40 0.01417 24 36 3 66.7 0.19 33.3 20 0.003 100 0.14 33.3 20 0.021

Mean 32.06 2.5 87.26 0.08 21.08 31.18 0.0153 75.49 0.13 23.04 28.82 0.0178Sum 545 43

SS:Sensitivity;FPR:FalsePredictionRate;SSRP:SensitivityofRandomPredictor;SOP:SeizureOccurringPeriod;p-value:p-valueoftherandompredictor.

Table 3Seizurepredictionresultsfor17casesstudied.

Results and DiscussionFigure 2 is a graphical display of a typical result obtained from theevaluationof theproposedmethodused in thisworkwiththe testing dataset of one of the cases studied (case 4). Thehighlighted areas show 60 min preictal periods. Red verticalarrows indicatethealarmsraised.Brownvertical lines indicatethe seizure onsets. Horizontal dashed line marks the threshold on fpfunctionforalarmgeneration.Forthiscase,thethresholdwassetat0.5.Thereare3truealarms(i.e.,alarmsfollowedbyseizures) raised and 2 false alarms (i.e., alarms not followed by seizures) in the entire testing period. It should be noted thatproper setting of the threshold for raising alarms influencespredictionresults.Ifitistoohighthesensitivityofthemodelwillbelowandifitistoolowthemodelsuffershighfalsepredictionrates.Trade–offisnecessaryinsettingthethresholdvalue.

Table 3 reports the results of the seizure prediction study intermsofsensitivityandfalsepredictionrateobtainedbythetwoclassificationalgorithms: support vectormachineandartificialneural network for each patient. Using the ANN classifier, inaverage 75.5% of seizures in the testing set were successfullypredicted(32outof43seizureswithin545hoursofcontinuousEEGdata)withanaveragefalsepredictionrateof0.13h-1.TheSVMclassifiergaveabetterperformancewithanaveragesensitivityof87% and FPR of 0.08h-1.Resultsfrommodelvalidationagainstananalytical randompredictor (ARP)showedthat forallpatients,usingthetwoclassifierstheobservedsensitivitiesexceededthecriticalsensitivitiesoftheARP.Theonlyexceptionisinthecaseofpatient5usingANNclassifierwheretheobservedsensitivityis33.3%whiletheARPgives66.7%.Thesignificancelevel,αRP used

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(a) SVM CLASSIFIER120

100

80

60

40

20

0

120

100

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0

Sens

itivi

ty (S

S),

%

Sens

itivi

ty (S

S),

%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Patient I.D

0.240.220.20

0.18

0.160.14

0.120.100.080.060.040.020.00

0.240.220.20

0.18

0.160.14

0.120.100.080.060.040.020.00Fa

lse P

redi

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n R

are

(FPR

), lu

r-1

False

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dict

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Rar

e (F

PR),

lur-1

SSFPR

(b) ANN CLASSIFIER

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Patient I.DSSFPR

Barchartssummarizing(a)Sensitivityand(b)FalsePredictionRateresultsachievedbyproposedseizurepredictionmethodforthe17 cases studied.

Figure 3

100

80

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0

SEN

SITI

VITY

, %

(a)

(b)

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Box and whiskers plot summarizing results of seizure prediction experiments in terms of (a) Sensitvity (b) falsepredictionratesusingeachoftheschemesacrossallpatients.Theendoftheboxaretheupperandlowerquartiles,themedianismarkedbythehorizontallineinsidethebox.Thewhiskersarethelinesoutsidetheboxthatextendtothe highest and lowest values.

Figure 4

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forthetestis0.05.Ontheaveragetheuppercriticalsensitivityof analytical random predictor was 21.1%, while that of the proposedmethod(forSVMclassifier)reached87.3%.

Figures 3a and 3barebarchartscomparingsensitivityandFPRresults obtained for the17patients (cases) studiedusing SVMandANNclassifiers respectively. Forboth classifiers’ variabilityin the sensitivities and FPR is observed. Factors that could beresponsibleforthevariabilitymayinclude(i)patientdependentseizure characteristics not captured by the method and (ii)presenceofseizuredependentcharacteristics.

Patient-dependent seizure characteristics: We have assumed auniformpreictalperiod (60min) forallpatients in this studybut this might not be the case in reality as preictal period may vary from patient to patient. So also, we assumed a uniformthreshold value (0.05) on the fp function for alarmgenerationwhichmaybenotproducethebestresultforeachpatient.Butcouldthethresholdbelearnedorsuggestedforeachpatientbyourmethod?Thisispossibleiftheclassifieroutputregularizationfunction and alarm raising formality are configured in thealgorithmduringtraining.Thethresholdparameterwouldthenbeenteredamongotherhyperparameterstosearchforoptimalsensitivityandfalsepredictionrateforeachpatient.

Seizure dependent characteristics: Seizure dependent characteristics are also believed to exist for individual patient.

Therefore, the pattern learned by classifier trained on someseizures of a patient may not be useful when evaluating theclassifieronotherseizuresfromthesamepatient.

Engineered Features (Low level features) and Feature Representation Learning (High level features)Figures 4a and 4b are box and whiskers plots comparing the results of seizure prediction in terms of sensitivity and falseprediction rate respectively obtained for all patients in allthe schemes. It is observed from the median and minimum values of sensitivity and FPR that schemes involving featurerepresentation learning keep outperforming their respectivecounterpart schemes without feature representation learning.This is because feature representation learning particularlyas obtained by sparse filtering or reconstruction independentcomponentanalysisisabletosimplifyclassificationrulelearningtask during training by enforcing sparsity and over completeness propertiesonthelearnedfeatures.Thesetwopropertiescapturetheunderlyingdatadistributionandpreventoverfittingduringthe training thereby improving model generalizing ability when presented with previously unseen data.

patient 1patient 2patient 3patient 4patient 5patient 6patient 7

patient 8patient 9patient 10patient 11patient 12patient 13patient 14patient 15patient 16patient 17

50

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(c)

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(a)AveragepredictiontimeachievedbytheSVMusingfeatureextractionschemesA,B,EandF(b)AveragepredictiontimetrendsacrossfeatureextractionschemesA,B,EandF(c)Averagepredictiontime.

Figure 5

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Sensitivity of seizure parameters to theoretical methodology usedThe average seizure anticipation times of the SVM classifier isshown in Figure 5a for all testing set recordings using featureextractionschemesA,B,EandFdescribedinTable 2. Each row showstheaveragepredictiontimeachievedbythesystemwiththe feature extraction schemes for all the recordings from asingle patient. The vertical red line indicates the seizureonsettime.ForbettercomprehensionthetrendsofaveragepredictiontimesacrosstheschemesandpatientsarepresentedinFigures 5b and 5c respectively. The pattern in Figure 5 looks chaoticforallpatientsaswegofromlefttoright(i.e.,schemeAtoF).The spreadof the averagepredictiontime for all the schemesis quite large. For instance, the minimum, mean and maximum valuesforschemesBandEare5,30.8,46minand9,31.1,47min respectively. This observationmaybepointing to the factthat the seizure prediction time is strongly dependent on thetheoretical method employed. However, the means of theaverage prediction times for the schemes are 29.7, 30.8, 31.1and30.2respectively.Thesevaluesareveryclose.Ontheotherhand, the pattern in Figure 5 is quite ordered with almost all schemes displaying upward and downward peaks for quite a number of the patients (especially patients 2, 4, 8, 10, 11, 15and17).Thisobservationisconsistentwithearlierobservationsabout thepatientdependent characteristicof seizures, that is,theprocessesleadingtothegenerationofepilepticseizuresvaryfrompatienttopatient.Therefore,eachschemecapturesthesedifferentmechanismsatdifferentbutclosetimes.

Comparison of our method with other literature methodsIn Table 3 the results of some of these methods are presented in comparison to the method proposed in this work. Although, itisonlyageneralcomparisonduetothedifferentepilepsydata(sEEG or iEEG), patients and criteria (e.g. different predictionhorizon and SOP) used for evaluation. It is generally observedthatperformancewithscalpEEGislower.Thisobservationmaybe explained in terms of the advantages of intracranial EEG(iEEG)recording.Firstly, iEEGhashighsignaltonoiseratioandsecondly, it is a localized recording of the brain activitywhich

Year Authors Dataset (Source/type) Feature Classifier SS (%) FPR (per hour) SOP (min)

2016 Zhang et al. Freiburg/iEEG spectral powers SVM 100 0.03 502016 Zhang et al. MIT/sEEG spectral powers SVM 88.68 0.05 50

2017 Parvez et al. Freiburg/iEEG phase-matcherror,deviation,flunctuation LS - SVM 95.4 0.36 30

2017 Sharif et al. Freiburg/iEEG Fuzzy rules on Poncare plane SVM 91.8 0.05 152017 Arabi et al. Freiburg/iEEG univariate/bivariatefeatures Rule-based descision 86.7 0.126 30

2017 Bonyadietal. Freiburg/iEEG ShorttimeFourierTransform ConvolutionalNeuralNetwork 89.8 0.17 30

2017 Bonyadietal. MIT/sEEG ShorttimeFourierTransform ConvolutionalNeuralNetwork 86.1 0.09 30

2018 Thiswork MIT/sEEG NLWPCER + FRL SVM 87.26 0.09 312018 Thiswork MIT/sEEG NLWPCER + FRL ANN 75.5 0.13 29

Table 4Comparisonbetweenresultsobtainedfromearlierpublishedseizurepredictionmethodandtheproposedmethod.

minimizes unwanted interferences from other brain sites on the signalsrecordedfromtheregionofinterest.Ontheotherhand,Bandarabadi[36]reportedaslightlyhigherperformanceofsEEGoveriEEGandarguedthatalthoughscalpEEGrecordingcannotprovide localizedneuronal potential activities, it canpresent amore generalized spatiotemporal view of brain’s dynamicalsystem (Table 4).

Hardware implementation of the proposed seizure prediction algorithmOne future goal of this research is to make a hardwareimplementation of the proposed seizure prediction algorithm.Hardware implementation of a seizure prediction algorithmisessential inorder toactualizeatimelyresponseor feedbackaimedatwarningpatients/caregiversofanimpendingseizureortakinganactionleadingtoitsaversion.But,istheperformanceof the method proposed in this work good enough for hardware implementation? This question can be answered in the lightof the performance of algorithms already in deployment onto seizure prediction devices. Mark et al. [37] conducted amulticentre clinical feasibility study to assess the safety andefficacy of a long-term implanted seizure advisory systemdesigned to predict seizure likelihood. For the purpose, an algorithmfortheidentificationofperiodsofhigh,moderateandlowseizurelikelihoodwasestablished.Thisalgorithmwhichwaslater used for the hardware implementation was reported toachievesensitivitiesrangingfrom65-100%.Also, inathoroughreview of literature and contacts made with manufacturers of commerciallyavailabledevices,VandeVeletal. [38] reportedresults of non-EEG based seizure detection devices as varyingfrom between 2.2% and 100% sensitivity and between 0 and3.23 false detections per hour. Furthermore, Isabell et al. [39]in theirbid toengineeramobile system for seizurepredictionusedadeeplearningclassifierwhichwastrainedonintracranialelectroencephalography(iEEG)dataandtestedonheld-outdata.Thealgorithmwasalsobenchmarkedagainst theperformanceof a random predictor. This algorithm, which was meant fordeployment onto an ultra-low power neuromorphic chip for autonomous operation on a wearable device was reported toachieveameansensitivityof69%andmeantimeinwarningof27%.Insummary,withanaveragesensitivityandfalseprediction

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rate of 87% and 0.08/hr respectively the performance of theproposedalgorithmisstillverymuchwithinacceptablerangeinliteratureandcouldbedeployedforuseinaseizurepredictiondevice.

A few of such devices have already been manufactured and are presently available commercially. First of such devices is the RNS (responseneurostimulator) systembyNeuroPace@. TheRNS isan advanced technology designed to detect abnormal electrical activity in the brain and respond by delivering imperceptiblelevelsofelectricalstimulationtonormalizebrainactivitybeforean individual experience’s seizure. Also available in the market istheActivaPC+S(PrimaryCell+Sensing)byMedtronic@.Thisdevicealsomonitorsbrainactivitiesandsendsstimulationpulsesaccordingly. Another therapeutic device which was recentlyintroduced to the market by LivaNova@ is the Aspire SR (Seizure Response). Thedevice constantlymonitors theheart beat anddelivers stimulation pulses when it detects a rapid heart rateraise. Just recently, researchers at Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e) developed a smart braceletwhich they call‘Nightwatch’.Thedevicecombinesbothaheartratesensorandamotion sensor to look for both an unusually high heart rateaswellastherhythmicjoltingcharacteristicofaseizuretoalertcaregiversonlyofapatient’snighttimeepilepticseizures.

Inthedevelopmentofthesedevices’criticalissuesofportabilityand power consumption are of utmost importance. The lowpower consumption property becomes even more desirablewhen the device is to be implanted in order to reduce the rate of routine follow up surgeries once the battery is discharged.Consequently,an ideal seizurepredictionalgorithmshouldnotbe computationallyexpensive thereby requiring lowpower forits implementation. This makes computational expensivenessone of the deciding factors to consider in the development of seizurepredictionalgorithms.Also,thisisthereasonwhyanewEEGfeaturewasconsideredinthepresentstudy.

Forinstance,wehavereportedonthecomputationtimeon77existingextractedEEGfeatures intheliteratureonacomputerwith an intel@Pentium@P6200processorwith4GBofRAM. Ittook approximately 20 seconds to calculate this feature for 3 secondsofEEGdatasampledat500Hz[40].Ontheotherhand,waveletcoefficients featuresareknowntobeeasyand fast tocompute hence their deployment in this study. The NLWPCERfeatures proposed here is about 50 times faster to computerelativetodatawindowlengthof3seconds.

ConclusionScalp and intracranial EEG possess a characteristic patternthat varies across individuals with epilepsy both in non-seizure and seizure states. However, EEG recorded from an individualexhibit less variability. This fact motivated the developmentofpatient specific seizurepredictionalgorithms. In thisworkanovel patient-specific epileptic seizure prediction method hasbeendeveloped.Themethodusesstateoftheartunsupervisedfeature learning techniques to obtain useful representation ofexistingandnewlyengineeredfeature:NormalizedLogarithmicWaveletPacketCoefficientsEnergyRatio(NLWPCER)topredictseizures.Thegeneralideaistolearnatransformationthatmapsdata in a low-level feature (engineered features) space into high levelfeaturespacewhereclassificationruleiseasiertolearnandgeneralizingabilityofclassifierisimproved.

AsupportvectormachineclassifierwithGaussiankerneltrainedusing the training dataset to learn preictal and interictal feature vector patterns performed better than the ANN classifier alsotrainedforthesametask.ThebestparametersetoftheSVMwasobtained throughBayesianoptimizationand theoutputof theclassifierwasfurtherregularizedtoreducefalsepredictionrateduringtesting.Finally,theresultsobtainedwerecomparedwiththatofarandompredictorforvalidation.Withtheencouragingresults obtained in this work it is believed that the proposed method is a step forward toward achieving a robust and consistentreal-timeportableseizurepredictiondevicewhichissuitableforclinicalapplications.

AcknowledgementsWeacknowledgewithgratitudetheeffortsofindividualsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT)andChildrenHospitalBoston(CHB)whomadetheEEGdatausedinthisworkavailable.AteamofinvestigatorsfromtheChildrenHospitalBoston(CHB)and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) createdandcontributedthedatabasetoPhysioNet(ThePhysioNetwebsite is a public service of the PhysioNet Research Resource for ComplexPhysiologicSignals).TheclinicalinvestigatorsfromCHBinclude Jack Connolly, REEGT; Herman Edwards, REEGT; BlaiseBourgeois,MD. The investigators fromMIT include Ali Shoeb,PhDandProfessorJohnGuttag.

Declarations of InterestNone.

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