Network epidemiology, landscape pathology & macro-ecology:

three new tools for global change scienceMarco Pautasso,

Division of Biology, Imperial College London,

Silwood Campus, UK

7 May 2008

from: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS

number of passengers per day

NATURAL

TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL

food webs

airport networks

cell metabolism

neural networks

railway networks

ant nests

WWWInternet

electrical power grids

software mapscomputing

gridsE-mail

patterns

innovation flows

telephone calls

co-authorship nets

family networks

committees

sexual partnerships DISEASE

SPREAD

Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US

Internet structure

Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review

HIV spread

network

Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory

urban road networks

Modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

probability of transmission

prob

abili

ty o

f per

sist

ence local

small-world

random

scale-free

Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks

from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity

p [p]Epidemic develops

SIS Model, 100 Nodes, directed networks, constant n of links p [i (x, t)] = Σ {p [s] * p [i (y, t-1)] + p [p] * p [i (x, t-1)]}

p [s]

Epidemic does not develop

Sudden Oak Death in California

from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine

Trace forward/back zipcode

Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site

Hold released

Pathogen spread through trade

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5 6

log10 human population size of CH municipality (n)

log1

0 num

ber o

f pla

nts a

ffec

ted

by

Erw

inia

am

ylov

ora

(200

2-20

07)

A plant disease-human population correlation?

from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.), N affected municipalities = 1023 (out of 2762), data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

log10 human population density of CH municipality (n km-2)

log1

0 num

ber o

f pla

nts

affe

cted

by

Erw

inia

am

ylov

ora

(200

2-20

07)

Fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland

From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

1995

2003

1999

2007

Fire blight persistence from year to year in Swiss municipalities (2003-2007)

n = 238, y = 0.26x + 1.39, r2 = 0.04, p = 0.001

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4

log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2006)

log1

0 n p

lant

s af

fect

ed

by E

rwin

ia a

myl

ovor

a (2

007)n = 204, y = 0.45x + 0.46, r2 = 0.27, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

log10 n plants affected by Erwinia am ylovora (2005)

log 1

0 n p

lant

s aff

ecte

d

by E

rwin

ia a

myl

ovor

a (2

006)

n = 160, y = 0.41x + 0.41, r2 = 0.17, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2003)

log 1

0 n p

lant

s aff

ecte

d by

Erw

inia

am

ylov

ora

(200

4) n = 163, y = 0.42x + 1.15, r2 = 0.16, p < 0.0001

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4

log10 n plants affected by Erwinia amylovora (2004)

log 1

0 n p

lant

s aff

ecte

d by

Erw

inia

am

ylov

ora

(200

5)

from: Pautasso & Holdenrieder (in prep.), data from Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation

from: Jeger & Pautasso (2008) New Phytologist

Potential effects of climate change on the disease triangle

Species-people correlation: sampling bias?

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

Vascular plants in US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens

from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology

• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001

from: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) PNAS

number of passengers per day

from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research

Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)

Acknowledgements

Ottmar Holdenrieder,

ETHZ, CH

Mike Jeger, Imperial College,

Silwood Park

Ingrid Parmentier,

Univ. of Bruxelles, Belgium

Kevin Gaston, Univ. of

Sheffield

Joel Cohen,

Rockefeller Univ., US

Peter Weisberg, Univ. of Nevada,

Reno, US

Mike McKinney, Univ. of Tennessee, USHolger Kreft,

Univ. of California, San Diego, US

Alessandro Chiarucci Univ. of Siena, Italy

ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L, Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology & Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411

References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127: 1-22 Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715 Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197 Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24 Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M, Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289 Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19, 8: 446-452