Neste Oil Investor Presentation 29 April 2009
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Transcript of Neste Oil Investor Presentation 29 April 2009
1
UPDATED: 29 April 2009
2
Contents
5 Overview11 Strategy21 Production and logistics41 Businesses
100 Financials119 Share & Funding127 Global Oil Industry157 Social Responsibility168 Appendix
3
Safe Harbor Statement
The following information contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. These
statements relate to future events or our future financial performance, including, but not limited to, strategic
plans, potential growth, planned operational changes, expected capital expenditures, future cash sources and
requirements, liquidity and cost savings that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors
that may cause Neste Oil Corporation’s or its businesses’ actual results, levels of activity, performance or
achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.
In some cases, such forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “may,” “will,”
“could,” “would,” “should,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” or
“continue,” or the negative of those terms or other comparable terminology. By their nature, forward-looking
statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that
may or may not occur in the future. Future results may vary from the results expressed in, or implied by, the
following forward-looking statements, possibly to a material degree. All forward-looking statements made in
this presentation based on information presently available to management and Neste Oil Corporation
assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation constitutes
investment advice and this presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy
any securities or otherwise to engage in any investment activity.
4
Overview
6
7
VISION:
The leading provider of cleaner traffic fuels
8
Neste Oil in Brief2008
Comparable EBIT 1)
€ 602 MM
1) Excludes “Oil Other”
●
Oil refining & marketing company with focus on high quality refined petroleum products with reduced environmental impact
●
Listed
in the Helsinki Stock Exchange under
the symbol
NES1V●
Approximately
5,000
employees●
Market capitalization approximately EUR 3
billion
●
Included in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index as of September 2007
Oil Products 602
Renewable
Fuels
2Oil Retail
22 Other -29 (and eliminations +5)
9
Neste Oil's Global Presence
Focus in Northern Europe
Singapore
BeringenEdmonton
Houston Sines
Toronto
Dubai
Long Beach
Oil Retail
Production and logistics
Oil Products
Refinery, plant, or
other facility
Office
Naantali
St Petersburg
MoscowLatvia
Nynäs
Lithuania
Porvoo
Estonia
Poland
Renewable
Fuels Singapore(under deveploment)
Rotterdam (under deveploment)
Extensive retail network-
Over 200 stations
Ownership of the only Finnish refineries- Porvoo: 205,000 bbl/d- Naantali: 56,000 bbl/d
Leading wholesale market positions across refined products
Market leader in Finland-
Almost 900 outlets-
Direct sales of petroleum products to end customers
Finland Baltic States, Poland and St. Petersburg
Shipping fleet of average 30 crude and product tankers with a carrying capacity of almost 1.3 MM tons
Three
refineries
in Sweden
and the UK, as well
as stakes
in other
sites
specializing
in production
and marketing
bitumen
and napthenics (through Nynäs 50/50 JV with PdVSA)
-
Bitumen
volumes
about
2.5MT and napthenics
close
to 0.8MT (2006)
JV Nynäs: Sweden/UK
Porvoo
Top-tier base oil production, 250,000 t/a
Beringen, Belgium
50,000 t/a base oil plant Sines, Portugal
50,000 t/a ETBE plantEdmonton, Canada
530,000 t/a iso-octane plant (50% ownership)
Production outside Finland
Bahrain (under deveploment)
Geneva
Atlantic Basin
10
Strategy
12
13
Leveraging refining
excellence
Increasing the range of
feedstocks
Delivering high-quality products for cleaner
traffic
We will reinforce the key elements of our strategy
14
Group structure
Customer orientationCustomer orientation
Oil ProductsOil Products Renewable Fuels
Renewable Fuels
Refining the future
Common approaches
Excellent operational and financial results
Responsibility Cooperation Innovation Excellence
The leading supplier of products for cleaner traffic
Oil RetailOil Retail
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1/06 Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09
Key financial targets: Leverage between 25-50%
Leverage 1), %
target: between 25-50%
1) Net debt/Net debt + equity
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09
2) After tax, rolling 4 quarters
Return on average capital employed after tax (ROACE) 2),%
target: at least 15%
Key financial targets: ROACE at least 15%
17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008
Competitive payout policy
Payout from reported EPS
Adjusted for non-recurring items
Target of at least 33%
2007 dividend 1.00 € /share
Payout ratio
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2005 2006 2007 2008
Payout EUR/share
EUR
Proposal to AG
MProposal to A
GM
Proposal to AG
MProposal to A
GM
18
Neste Oil has very complex refining assets
Western Europe refinery configuration factors
Data collected from: Solomon 2007
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
HydroskimmingRefineries
Complex Refineries
Neste Oil 2006
Neste Oil 2007 (afterDiesel-project)
Solomon refinery configuration factor
19
Higher margins expected for complex refiners
Notes: Low Conversion < 25%, Medium Conversion >25% <50%, High Conversion >50% Relative Normalised Conversion CapacitySources: Oil and Gas Journal; Internal Analysis
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Medium Conversionrefineries
48%
High ConversionRefineries
25%
Refining Capacity (Kbpd)
RelativeCost
Expected Demand 2015
Low Conversion refineries
27%
Average margin
Zero margin
Highest margin
Pricelevel
Illustrative
2015 supply curve vs demandWestern Europe
Our position
20
Investment Projects 2009 – 2011Segment Location Capacity Investment
(total budget)Schedule Other
Renewable Fuels
NExBTL plant Porvoo 170,000 t/a > 100 Meur 2009 Under construction
NExBTL plant Singapore 800,000 t/a 550 Meur 2010 Under construction
NExBTL plant Rotterdam 800,000 t/a 670 Meur 2011 Under construction
Oil Products
Base oil plant Bahrain 400,000 t/a 115–135 Meur
2011 JV: Neste share is 45% →
180,000 t/a
Isomerization unit Porvoo 600,000 t/a 80 Meur Project is postponed
before market
situation improves
Processes 600,000 t/a of low-value gasoline into high-quality gasoline. Increases refinery´s total gasoline output by 200,000 t/a
Base oil plant Abu Dhabi 500,000 t/a Open Open JV: Neste share is 20% →
100,000 t/a
No final investment decision made
Production and logistics
22
Oil Refining: Porvoo refinery
Porvoo refinery
23
Porvoo Refinery•
Porvoo
is Neste Oil’s principal refinery, in operation since the mid 1960s•
An atmospheric distillation capacity of 205,000 bpd•
The Diesel Project increased the refinery’s complexity:-
from 10.5 to approximately 14.5 (Solomon refinery configuration
factor)-
from 10.4 to approximately 12.1 (Nelson complexity index)•
Very extensive bedrock cavern capacity and tank farm combined with deep sea harbour
1) bpd, except for hydrogen plants2) These new units will be started-up in connection with the Diesel Project.
Fluid Process Units Current Licensor/ Start-Up Year of Major
capacity 1) Process Designer Year Modifications
Atmospheric Crude Distillation 206,000
Lummus/Neste Oil
1975
1993Vacuum Distillation 1
52,300
Lummus/Neste Oil
1972
1993Vacuum Distillation 2
23,000
Lummus/Neste Oil
1988Visbreaking
26,050
Shell
1979Fluid Catalytic Cracking 42,300
Texaco
1972
1993Hydrocracking
21,500
UOP/Unocal
1965
1989Continuous Catalytic Reforming 41,700
UOP
1986Hydrogen Plant (thousands of standard cubic feet per day) 22,300
Power Gas
1965ETBE / MTBE
2,235
Neste Oil/ Snamprogetti
1993
1993Alkylation
7,750
Phillips
1988
1993TAME 2,880
Neste Oil
1995Hydrotreating/ Naphtha 67,100
Exxon
1975
1993Distillate Aromatics Saturation 16,500
Neste Oil
1992Hydrotreating/Distillate 2 24,800
Shell
1972Hydrotreating/Distillate 3
54,100
Shell
1993
1999VGO Desulphurization 55,600
Unocal
1975
1999EHVI Unit
6,690
Chevron
1997
1997LCF(2) 41,800
ChevronLummus
2006MHC(2) 33,500
ChevronLummus
2006New Hydrogen Plant(2) (thousands of standard cubic feet per day)
118,385
Unde
GmbH
2006
Note: capacity barrels streamday basisNote: capacity barrels streamday basis
24
Por
voo
Ref
iner
yco
mpl
exity
ratio
is a
ppro
xim
atel
y14
.5 (S
olom
on)
Oil Refining Process at the Porvoo Refinery
25
The New Diesel Production line in Porvoo
HFO0,5 Mt/aDEMI water
Off Gas / Propane
Existing refinery
Hydrogen production unit
Desulfurization and conversion of HFO
Gas to process
Sulfur freediesel 1 Mt/a
Crude oil
HFO 2 Mt/a
Natural Gas
11 Mt/a
26
Naantali refinery
27
Naantali Refinery•
The Naantali
refinery began operations in the late 1950s and refines gasolines, diesel fuels, LPGs, aviation fuels, heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumens
and solvents•
An ongoing investment program at the Naantali
refinery has focused on increasing the production of specialty petroleum products, such as specialty gasolines, solvents and bitumen
•
An atmospheric distillation capacity of 56,000 bpd (crude and other feedstocks)•
The complexity of the Naantali
refinery:-
8.4 (Solomon refinery configuration factor)-
7.1 (Nelson complexity index)Process Units
Current Licensor/ Start-Up Year
of
Majorcapacity, bpd Process Designer Year Modifications
Crude Distillation (Unit 1)
28,300
Lummus
1957
1996Crude Distillation (Unit 2)
28,300
Lummus
1962
1996Light Naphtha Dehexanizer
9,700
Neste Oil
1982Naphtha Dehexanizer
10,800
Neste Oil
1995Solvent Distillation
2,200
Neste Oil
1982
2003Arosat
500
Lummus
1971
1998Special Gasoline (BEL) unit
1,800
Neste Oil
1989
1994Reformer Unit
7,700
UOP
1985JET fuel unit
3,000
UOP
1998TCC Gasoline Desulphurization
6,600
Axens
2002Catalytic Polymerization
600
Chevron/UOP
1957
1987Solvent Hydrotreater
5,700
Neste Oil
1991
2003Solvents Dearomatization
5,200
Neste Oil
1993
2003Middle Distillate Hydrotreater
2
19,800
Lummus
1981
2002TCC-Feed Hydrotreater
7,200
Neste Oil
1987Thermofor
Catalytic Cracker
14,300
Mobil Oil/Neste Oil
1957
1982Vacuum Distillation Unit
16,900
Lummus
1957
1982Visbreaker
8,800
Shell
1979Bitumen Distillation Unit
5,700
Neste Oil
1963
2003Sulphur
Recovery Unit
60
Comprimo
1973
1995Naphtha Hydrotreater
9,000 Neste Oil 1963 1982Mild Vacuum Unit
5,700 Neste Oil 1963 2003Bitumen Unit 7,800 Neste Oil 1998 200Vapor Recovery Unit
N.A.
Lummus
1957
Note: capacity barrels streamday basisNote: capacity barrels streamday basis
28
CRUDEOIL
DISTILLATION1 AND 2
CRUDEOIL
OTHERFEED
GASOLINEDESULPHURISATION
SOLVENTDESULPHUR-
ISATION
VACUUMDISTILLATION
HEXANEREMOVAL
BITUMENUNIT
VISBREAKING
HYDRO-GENATION
AROSATUNIT
SOLVENTDISTILLATION
TCC-UNIT
GASRECOVERY POLYMERI-
SATION
GASOLINEREFORMATION
JET FUELTREATMENT
GAS OILDESULPHUR-
ISATION
SULPHURRECOVERY
UNIT
PROPANEBUTANE
REMOVAL OF AROMATIC
COMPOUNDSFROM SOLVENT
CITYDIESELLIGHT
FUEL OIL
JETFUEL
HEAVYSOLVENTS
NAPHTHAMOTOR-
GASOLINE
LIGHTSOLVENTS
HEAVYFUEL OILBITUMEN
SULPHUR
H2
H2
H2
H2S-FEED
SPECIALITYGASOLINE UNIT SPECIALITY
GASOLINES
Oil Refining Process at the Naantali Refinery
29
Use of Russian Heavier Crude Continues to Increase
•
Neste Oil is procuring approximately 2/3 of its feedstock under one-year
term
contracts and 1/3 on a spot basis–
Pricing under term contracts is based on market prices•
Neste Oil’s largest suppliers are major Russian oil companies–
No supplier represents more than 20% of total procurement•
Apart from tankers,
Russian crude is also transported by rail (around 1.3 million tons in 2006)
3447 47 54 52 54 57 63
75
6653 57
46 48 46 43 3725
6443 51
3653 49
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2008 2009Q1
2009e
Russian Export Blend Other
Share of REB out of total feed of Neste Oil´s refineries
30
70
0%10%20%30%40%50%
60%70%80%90%
100%
2008
European average
Source: Neste Oil, BernsteinResearch
30
Russian crude oil is very close to Porvoo and Naantali
Million tons
17.7
44.857.4
66.174.2 74.3
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Oil export from Primorsk
Primorsk oil harborPorvoo refineryNaantali refinery
31
Russian crude replaces North Sea crude
Total feedstocks (%)
Diesel replaces heavy fuel oil
Total output (1000 tons)
Note: very rough 2009-estimate is based on 2005/2006/2007 production yields added by diesel project
Our product slate and use of Russian crude have changed
Urals
Urals
Other crudes
Other feedstock
Other feedstock
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2009e
Middle distillates
Middle distillates
Middle distillates
Gasoline
Gasoline
Gasoline
Other
Other Other
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,000
2007 2009e 2011e (afterSingapore and
RotterdamNExBTL-plants
are up andrunning)
Heavy products: Heavy fuel oil, bitumen etc.Gasoline: gasoline, gasoline componentsMiddle distillates: diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, NEXbTLOther: base oils, lpg, solvents, naphta
Heavy prodducts
Heavy prodducts
Heavy prodducts
32
High crude oil prices favor cracking margins
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Brent cracking margin Yearly average (1995-2007) - North West Europe
Historical prices(Brent Crude annual average price)
Refining Margin ($/bbl)
Brent Crude price ($/bbl)
Crude oil price from 19601960-1986: Arabian Light, 1987-today: Brent Dated
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Crude price nominal Crude price in 2008 money
Up to Jan 19, 2008$/bbl
33
Large scale storage facilities and modern marine terminals are supporting our business
Rock caverns Tank farms Harbour
Porvoo refinery 24 bedrock caverns, capacity 5.6 million cubic meters
Capacity 1.6 million cubic meters
Approach route up to 15.3 meters deep, capacity to accomondate vessels up to160,000 cargo tons
Naantali refinery 1 becrock cavern, capacity 0.25 million cubic meters + 7 steel shell tanks inside bedrock, capacity 0.03 million cubic meters
Capacity 0.82 million cubic meters
Approach route up to 15.3 meters deep
Refineries together
25 caverns (+7 steel shell tanks inside bedrock), capacity 5.88 million cubic meters
Tank farm capacity 2.42 million cubic meters
•
Storage system and harbour capacity together with our own shipping fleet are key drivers for Neste Oil´s superior logistics•
Flexibility; we can keep products as components (e.g. gasoline) and blend them just before shipment fulfilling buyer’s requirements even with very short notice
•
Large scale contango storaging in favourable market conditions •
Modern harbour and bedrock caverns are also safery elements
34Shipping guarantees safe and secure crude supplies and product shipments.
35
Shipping supports our growth strategy
Security of supply and exports, especially
winter time
Capability to schedule crude supply and product exports
Leverage scale benefits by using larger cargo sizes
Shipping plays an important role in our
growth in refining and renewable diesel
36
Successful risk management in growing market
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Time charter Bareboat Own
Neste Oil Shipping fleet split by categories
Number of shipsOur shipping flexibility
•
Flexible portfolio –
increasing role of time charter vessels
•
Port calls: 3741
calls in 2008
•
Neste Shipping average vessel age is below 5
years
•
More than 40 million tons of cargo transported annually (50% for Neste)
•
Operations in Baltic Sea, North Sea and Intercontinental routes
2007
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002
/200
3
2003
/200
4
2004
/200
5
2005
/200
6
2006
/200
7
2007
/200
8
2008
/200
9
2009
/201
0
Commoditization of the Baltic tanker market
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-
04Ap
r-04
Jul-0
4O
ct-0
4Ja
n-05
Apr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06Ap
r-06
Jul-0
6O
ct-0
6Ja
n-07
Apr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08Ap
r-08
Jul-0
8O
ct-0
8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Monthly Crude freight rates (Primorsk/NWE), WSMonthly Russian oil exports from Primorsk, Mt
WS Mt
Monthly shipping freight rates & Russian oil export from Primorsk
Required number of shipsAvailable number of ships
Number of ships
Ice class capacity supply and demand
38
0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
Tanker Freight Rates
World Scale points
North Sea Crude freight rates Transatlantic Product freights
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
39
Sten Bothnia -08, NIS, 16661 DWT, 1A
Kiisla -04, FI, 14750 DWT, 1A S
Tärnhav -02, S, 14796 DWT, 1A
Sten Hidra -07, NIS, 16600 dwt, 1A
Sten Aurora -07, NIS, 16600 DWT, 1A
Sten Baltic -05, NIS, 16613 DWT, 1A
Sten Nordic -06, NIS, 16613 DWT, 1A
Mastera -03, FI, 106208 DWT, 1A S
Tempera -02, FI, 106034 DWT, 1A S
Propontis -06, GR, 117055 DWT, 1A
Amanda -05, PT, 7000 DWT, 1A
Tärndal -98, NIS, 8300 DWT, 1A S
Neste Shipping Fleet
Proteas -06, GR, 117055 DWT, 1A
Stena Arctica -05, FI, 117000 DWT, 1A S
Crude Carriers
We care howwe carry
Scorpius -06, S, 11249 DWT, 1A
Astina -06, S, 11283 DWT, 1A
Astoria -99, S, 12712 DWT, 1A
Stena Poseidon -07, FI, 74999 DWT, 1A
Palva -07, FI, 74999 DWT, 1A
Apollon -05, BS, 53000 DWT, 1A
Ariadne -05, BS, 53000 DWT, 1A
Futura -04, FI, 25084 DWT, 1A S
Neste -05, FI, 25080 DWT, 1A S
Jurmo -04, FI, 25049 DWT, 1A S
Purha -03, FI, 25000 DWT, 1A S
Sidsel Knutsen -93, NIS, 22625 DWT, 1A
Product Carriers
Ek-River -94, S, 17259 DWT, 1A
Turid Knutsen -93, NIS, 22617 DWT, 1A
Product Carriers Product Carriers
Pushers, Barges, Tugs
Bitpro 2 / Aulis -90, FI, 4088 DWT, 1A
Bitpro 1 / Kari -89, FI, 4088 DWT, 1A
Ahti -02, FI, 1A
Esko -81, FI
Ukko -02, FI, 1A
Suula -05, FI, 14665 DWT, 1A S
Updated
19.1.2009
40
Businesses
42
Oil Products
44
Long track record of superior refining margins
●
Key drivers of Neste Oil’s superior refining margin:
Ability to use heavier crude and other feedstocks
Refinery configuration and high-value product
slate (including base oils)
Location and logistics (transport differential in domestic and export markets)
Note:Margins are calculated in different ways and are not directly comparableRefining margins include variable costs
IEA Brent Cracking
benchmark marginNeste Oil Total Refining Margin
USD/bbl
9.62
11.92 10.2
9.88
11.91
12.38
9.44
13.54
15.0513.39
10.460
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1619
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Q1/
2007
Q2/
2007
Q3/
2007
Q4/
2007
Q1/
2008
Q2/
2008
Q3/
2008
Q4/
2008
Q1/
2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
451) Brent Dated 2) ULSD 10ppm CIF ARA3) Premium Unleaded 10 ppm CIF ARA 4) HSFO 3.5% CIF ARA
Product margins
Heavy Fuel Oil 4)Gasoline 3)Diesel 2) (price
difference
to crude
oil price
1), USD/bbl)
USD/bbl
-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
Q12005
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009
Q2-50-40-30-20-1001020304050
46
Brent crude oil and Brent/Urals differentialBrent dated
USD/bbl
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q12005
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009
Q20
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
47
Neste Oil is a middle distillate producer
42%36%
54%
19%46%
33%
39%
19% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
European average US average Neste Oil
Middle distillates Motor gasoline OtherSources: EIA, Wood Mackenzie, Neste Oil
2007 2007 2009e
48
Neste Oil is a middle distillate producer
33% 28% 22% 22% 24%
44% 46%
54%52%
50% 47% 44%
35% 33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Neste Saras OMV Petroplus PKN Orlen TSO VLO
Gasoline Middle Distillates Heavy products (mainly heavy fuel oil) Other
Data: Neste Oil = 2009e / Other companies = 2007-2008
Data source: company based data
49
Sales from in-house production
43 43 44 46 48 5240 47 54 49
34 36 35 31 30 2435
3029
29
9 7 8 8 7 6 8 66 10
14 14 13 15 15 18 17 16 11 12
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Middle distillates Gasoline Heavy Fuel Oil Other
14.3 MT 3.8 MT3.3 MT13.0 MT14.2 MT 14.3 MT 3.8 MT 3.8 MT14.6 MT 3.4 MT
50
58 57 57 56 52 54 48 55 52 54
15 16 14 1414 13
1314 16 16
15 15 18 16 20 2320
21 19 16
11 10 10 12 13 8 1910 12 14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Finland Nordics Other Europe USA & Canada Other
13.0 MT14.2 MT 14.1 MT 3.3 MT14.3 MT 3.8 MT
Sales by geographical area
3.8 MT 3.8 MT14.6 MT 3.4 MT
51
Strong wholesale market positions in Finland and Sweden
Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel
NOTE: Neste Oil estimate
100% 96% 16% 25%
Neste Oil market share in 2008
Wholesale market shares in Finland Wholesale market shares in Sweden
52
Iso-octane - a bespoke component for the US gasoline pool
1. Gasoline blend-stocks from main refinery units
• Lower than desired octane
2. Bio-components blended per regulation
•
Increasing use of ethanol as blending components increases vapour pressure
Gasoline that meets stringent specifications
Specialty gasoline
components
Gasoline that DOES NOT meet stringent specifications
Our focus
++ ==
XX1. or
2. without
addition
of specialty
gasoline
components
53
Co-development of new products /
formulations
Base oil and lubricant
formulation
Additive and lubricant
formulation
Base Oils’ Business Concept
Neste Oil Base Oils
Additive companies
Car manufacturers
(First fill)
Lubricant manufacturer
Retail channel(Service fill)
54
Demand for high quality base oils is growing
Consumer preferences• fuel economy
Legislation• Emission reduction• Fuel economy
OEM needs• Engine cleanliness• Fuel economy
55
05
101520253035404550
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Market shift increases attractiveness of high-quality base oils
Sources: ExxonMobil; Neste Oil; Fuels & Lubes
Global Base oils capacity outlook
Automotiveusage
Industrialusage
Group I
Group IV
Mtpa
Our focus is Group III
Group II
Group III
56
Supply-demand balance forecast for group III base oils is lucrative
Sources: Press releases, Neste Oil estimates
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
t/a
DemandSupply
57
We will leverage our market position to exploit those growth opportunities
Company 3
12%
Company 448%
Neste Oil47%
Neste Oil18%
Key strategic advantages•
Focus on higher quality base oils•
Extensive portfolio of car industry approvals•
Broad customer portfolio•
Leading position in Europe
Total market 430 ktpa
Total market1120 ktpa
European merchant market (group III) 2007 Global merchant market (group III) 2007
Competitors53%
Competitors82%
58
In addition to automotive uses, base oils are used in industrial lubricants and as process oils
Uses of NEXBASETM Base OilsExample: Where are lubricants used in the Mercedes C series
59
Nynas is a specialized global company
● Sales around 3 000 M$ ●
Crude processing: approx. 3 million tons.
●
Most important products: bitumen, base oil, transformer oil, process oil.
●
Percent of sales outside Sweden: 88%.
●
Employees: Around 850 in more than 30 countries all over the world.
Customer logos
12% Fuel
18% Specialty oils
70% Bitumen
96% Fuel
4% Bitumen,Specialty oilsand Lubes
Typicaloil company
Renewable Fuels
61
Neste Oil's approach on sustainable biofuels
True GHG savings over entire life cycle
Sustainable feedstock and full traceability
Lower tail pipe emissions
NExBTL renewable diesel
62
The challenge of the energy industry: Increasing demand, climate change and energy security
Total transport
Source:
EIA 2007 &
IEA 2008
●
Total
world
energy
demand continues
to grow
●
New energy
solutions
are urgently
called
for
●
Future
energy
supply
will
be based
on multiple
technologies
and feedstock ●
Minimizing
environmental
e
ffectsand ensuring
sustainability
are
driving
the development ●
Significant
new feedstock
for transport fuels
include:
vegetable oils, tallow, forestresidues, side products, wasteetc.
63
Renewable diesel – A global market view
EUROPE-
Dieselized automotive market-
Regulatory framework supporting biodiesel> Main market for biodiesel and NExBTL
US and Canada-
Gasoline driven market-
Regulatory framework supporting biofuels> Growing market for NExBTL
ASIA-
Gasoline driven market-
Legal framework mainly under development > Growing market for NExBTL
20108 Mt
201013 Mt
2010~8 Mt
LATIN AMERICA -
Gasoline driven market-
Global leader in ethanol (Brazil)-
Biodiesel market expected to grow> Market to follow up
20103 Mt
Biofuel in diesel target
for2010
Neste Oil internal analysis. Based on KBC regional diesel demand
estimates and national biofuel
targets (data collected from market information sources).
64
>/= 2% > 5% > 7 %
EU biofuel regimes (2008) EU biofuel regimes (2010)
Source: Neste Oil
Government policies further boost demand – increasing targets
65
Status of the Renewable Energy DirectiveRENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE●
Setting binding targets for the use of biofuels in transport within EU●
Clear, shared rules for sustainability of biofuels
KEY RESULTS●
Biofuel target in transportation maintained at 10 % by 2020●
Use of renewable electricity in transport supported heavily (2.5
x liquid bioenergy)●
Waste, residues, non-food cellulosic and ligno-cellulosic material supported (2 X liquid bioenergy)
●
GHG threshold 35% by 2010, rising to 50 % by 2017, and even further to 60 % in regard to new plants
●
Principle of harmonized legislation across EU member states applied
CONCLUSIONS ●
The directive
has a positive approach to feedstock trade with 3rd countries●
The directive will allow our current feedstock base ●
Palm oil has a low default value on GHG savings (26% compared to
the 35% threshold); we will use the actual value, to be calculated still (preliminary indications 40-60%)
●
Current
approval
process has two steps: harmonized sustainability legislation across the EU, and formal product appproval process at member state level
●
General: the directive
is more positive than what was expected based on Parliamentary discussion; the sustainability
criteria
are
seen
as reasonable
and manageable from operators’
point of view
66
Mt
23.2
4.95.76.1
11.613
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2010e 2020eproduction total capacity
Note: Assumes that both gasoline and diesel have 5.75% biocontent in 2010 and 10% in 2020 : Sources: European Biodiesel Board, EU Commission
Historical and targeted EU biomass based diesel production
EU: Biodiesel production and capacity in 2004-2007 and Commission proposal for 2010-2020
EU 5.75% and 10% targets means ~13 Mt capacity need in 2010 and 21 Mt in 2020
Renewable Energy Directive●
10% of energy consumption in transport from renewable sources by 2020
●
GHG saving -35% in 2010; 50% in 2017 and 60% for new installations 2017
●
Member States legislations to include the RED within 18months from official publication
●
Open questions to be resolved in Comission led Comitology -process
5.75%5.75%
10.0%10.0%
67
NExBTL PROCESS
NExBTL renewable diesel by Neste Oil
FLEXIBLE FEEDSTOCKFLEXIBLE FEEDSTOCK
Vegetable oils and animal fats, feedstock
base
expanding
Commercial
scale
productionalready
in place
SIGNIFICANT LIFE CYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS SAVINGS AND IMPROVED AIR QUALITY
68
Renewable diesel volume growth
0250,000500,000750,000
1,000,0001,250,0001,500,0001,750,0002,000,000
2007 2009 2010 2011 2015
nam
epla
te c
apac
ity t/
a
Porvoo I Porvoo II Singapore Rotterdam
69May 6, 2009 Renewable Fuels69
NExBTL renewable diesel is the best fuel of its type available anywhere, and can be used in all diesel engines.
Product
•
NExBTL is the cleanest diesel available, and its technology is several years ahead of any competitors in the renewable fuels market
•
Can be produced in large volumes on an industrial scale•
NExBTL renewable diesel significantly reduces both tailpipe and greenhouse gas emissions
•
NExBTL renewable diesel can be used in all modern diesel engines, hence there is no need to replace existing vehicles
•
Can be used as such or as a blending component in conventional diesel•
Performance and ease of use is equal to that of fossil diesel•
NExBTL renewable diesel is engine-friendly
High cetane number
A pure hydrocarbon
70
Neste Oil's NExBTL renewable diesel
•
Key advantages: feedstock flexibility, excellent fuel properties
•
High quality (energy value, cetane number, cold properties) justifies premium pricing
TechnologyEsteröinti
Esteri - biodiesel
BiodieselFAME / RME
NExBTLrenewable
dieselFischer-Tropsch
Feedstock
End product
BiomassaKasviöljyt &
EläinrasvatKaasutus &
Fischer- Tropsch
Vetykäsitte ly
Vegetable oils & animal fats
(mainly rapeseed oil)
Esterification
Ester-based biodiesel
OII
H3
C-O-C-R
Vegetable oils &animal fats
Hydrogenation
Bio-based hydrocarbon
Cn
H2n+2
Biomass
Gasification &Fischer-Tropsch
Bio-based hydrocarbon
Cn
H2n+2
Mineral Oil
Refining
Hydrocarbon
Cn
H2n+2
Fossil diesel
71
Commercial
Esters
BTL
Vegetable oils
Esterification
FAME =
Biodiesel
In
Out
BTL GTL
Mineral Oil
Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Cn H2n+2
Cn H2n
ParaffinsAromatics
Polyaromatics
Refining
Natural gas
Coal
GasificationFischer-Tropsch
Cn H2n+2
Paraffins
Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Vegetable oils
Animal fats
Hydrotreating
Cn H2n+2
Paraffins
Renewable:Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Biomass
Cn H2n+2
Paraffins
NExBTL is a hydrocarbon renewable diesel
Commercial Commercial Commercialby
Neste Oil
Gasification Fischer-Tropsch
Renewable:Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Developmentphase
72
(1) EN590/2005(2) Blending cetane number
0< 10< 10Sulfur content (mg/kg)
StableStableUnstabl
eProduct stability
43
- 5
53
835
Sulphur-freeDiesel fuel1)
38
- 5
51
885
RME
44Heating value (lower)
(MJ/kg)
- 5 ... - 30Cloud point (°C)
84 ... 992)Cetane number
775 ... 785Density at +15°C (kg/m3)
NExBTLFuelproperties
Comparing key fuel properties
•
CO2
reduction•
Cleaner emissions•
No implications for existing car pool
•
No need to relax specifications to achieve high bio content
•
Distribution within existing oil refinery logistics
•
No need to compromise fuel quality
NExBTL characteristics
73
NExBTL renewable diesel is superior to traditional biodiesel
•
Technically possible to blend up to 100%
•
No need to relax specifications to achieve high bio-content
•
All emissions reduced•
No "use by" -date•
No implications for end users
•
No implications for vehicle technology
NExBTL renewable diesel
•
Maximum blend of 5 % (EN590 diesel specification)
•
Bio targets not achievable without specification changes
•
NOx increase•
Limited storage possibilities•
Problems with engine cleanliness
•
Ash formation blocks exhaust after treatment filters
Traditional biodiesel
74
NExBTL´s competitive position
FAME/RME biodiesel
Sulphur-free dieselfuel
NExBTL renewable diesel
product quality
prod
uct m
arke
t pric
e $/
ton
- Price premium due to higher quality and energy content
illustrative example
>90% of world’s biodiesel production
is FAME/RME
0
75
NExBTL´s competitive position
FAME/RME biodiesel
Sulphur-free Dieselfuel
NExBTL renewable dieselfe
edst
ock
pric
e $/
ton
investment cost & operating cost $/ton
-mainly rapeseed oil
- flexible feedstock base
-crude oil
illustrative example
0
76
Illustrative pricing for NExBTL renewable diesel
AssumptionsAssumptions
●
NExBTL premium includes:
•
density premium
•
energy content premium
•
premium for higher cetane, better
cold properties and branding
value
●
Illustrative base price for palm oil is
500 USD/t
●
NExBTL premium includes:
•
density premium
•
energy content premium
•
premium for higher cetane, better
cold properties and branding
value
●
Illustrative base price for palm oil is
500 USD/t
Components of NExBTL price
NExBTLPremium
FAME overRapeseed Oil
Rapeseed Oilover Palm Oil
Palm Oil (CPO)
Cos
t / p
rice
diffe
renc
e (in
$/t)
100-200
100-200
500
77
We have the flexibility to use cheapest feedstock available
Source: Oil World
Feedstockflexibility
•
Rapeseed oil availability restricts first generation biodiesel production from meeting EU targets
•
NExBTL can use almost any vegetable oil or animal fat as feedstock
Can fulfil EU target
Provides a competitive cost position
Price development of different feedstocks
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500160017001800
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9
USD
/t
0100200300400500600700800900100011001200130014001500160017001800
Soya Oil Dutch fob ex mill Palm oil crude cif nweTallow US b.f. cif Rott Rapeseed Oil Dutch fob ex mill
78May 6, 2009 Renewable Fuels78
Using NExBTL renewable diesel improves the quality of the air we breathe.
Significant reduction in tailpipe emission
•
Engine tests have proven that particulate, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions released by NExBTL renewable diesel are all lower than with traditional diesel
•
Regulated emissions are significantly reduced
NOx
10% lower
Particulates 28% lower
CO
28% lower
HC
50% lower
Source: Scania, MAN, VTT
79
Significant reduction in GHG emissions
NExBTL diesel
Vegetable
oil production, processing
and transportation0.95 -
2.25 t CO2
1.3 -2.6 t CO2 per ton of NExBTL
Production
and processing
End
use
Fossil
diesel
Crude
oil production,
processing
and transportation
Refining
End
use
3.8 t CO2 per ton of diesel
Annual
production
of the first
NExBTL plant
in Porvoo is 170 000 tons
GHG emissions
of NExBTL renewable
diesel over
the entire
lifecycle
are
40-60% lower
than
those
of fossil
diesel
Majority
of emissions
are
generated
during
raw
material
production
Potential
to reduce
GHG emissions
in raw
material
production• optimising
fertilizer
use• waste
water
treatment• use
of waste
Source: Concawe/Eucar WTW 2004, IFEU
80
Commitment to sustainability
●
We believe that by acting responsibly the industry can make a change and therefore sustainability is at the heart of all biofuel operations:
●
Working with governments to develop policies on sustainable development
●
Comply with highest standards (e.g. RSPO, RSB, RTRS)●
Work with raw material suppliers to continuously improve sustainability performance
●
Search for new competitive non-food feedstock alternatives and implement them as soon as possible
●
Continuously improve the greenhouse gas balance and environmental impacts of the whole lifecycle
●
Production growth of vegetable oils must be based on increasing yields of currently used land area and utilisation of wasteland
81
Global biomass potentialMillion hectares globally
Ton/hectare yield
Million tons crude oil equivalent production 2007
1. existing crops (sugar cane, sugar beet, oil crops, wheat, maize, palm)
100-200 5-20 250-500
2. energy crops (Miscanthus, Reed canary grass, eucalyptus etc.)
200-400 15-20 1000-2000
3. agricultural wastes (straw, cornstover, bagasse, rice hulls, palm wastes)
300-600 5-15 700-2000
4. forestry wastes (sawdust, logging residues, black liquor)
100-200 10-20 500-800
Conclusion: Many studies put potential at 2000-5000 Mtoe/aCompare: Current global traffic fuel need ~ 2000 Million ton crude oil
equivalent / year
82
Among existing crops palmoil yield is superior (in crude oil equivalent)
End product: Yield (ton/hectare) as crude oil equivalent:
rapeseed oil (EU)
NExBTL / (FAME) 0.9
soya oil(US)
NExBTL / (FAME) 0.54
palm oil (Malaysia)
NExBTL / (FAME) 4.2
wheat (EU) EtOH 1.1
barley (Finland)
EtOH 0.6
corn(US)
EtOH 1.2
sugar beet (EU)
EtOH 3.1
sugar cane (Brazil)
EtOH 3
Jatropha* NExBTL / (FAME) 1 - 1,5
Algae* NExBTL / (FAME) 30
* Alternative feedstock, commercial volumes not yet available
Source: Several sources & Neste Oil internal analysis
83
From plantations to our site: The palm oil we use is fully traceable
SEEDLINGSThe seedlings are grown in a nursery adjacent to the plantation
PLANTATIONPlantations are set up according to RSPO’s sustainable development criteria
CULTIVATION 12-month old trees are planted. Proper care guarantees well-being and long life of the palms.
OIL PRESSING The palm fruit is freed from the bunches and mashed. Oil is extracted by mechanical pressing and stored in tanks which are sealed
until transportation. The rest of the bunch is recycled or used towards energy.
HARVEST Oil palm trees bear fruit for approximately 30 years. At harvest the fruit bunches are cut down and transported to the extraction plant adjacent to the plantation.
The separation of Neste Oil’s fruit ensures traceability.
TRANSPORT Neste Oil’s palm oil is loaded into ships, sealed and shipped to Europe.
REFINERY At the NExBTL plant at Neste Oil's refinery in Finland, palm oil is used as one of the raw materials for NExBTL renewable diesel.
Audited by SGS 5/2007 Audited by SGS 3-4/2008
84
Auditing our supply chain
SGS audited the supplier against the QUALIPLAM Programme. It looked at 6 oil plantations
within Sandakan region in May 2007.
Key findings:
●
Full compliance in 6 areas, e.g soil fertility, avoiding of use of fire, no use of child labour and protection of sexual harassment, transparency and contribution to sustainable development
●
High compliance in 10 areas, e.g such as land ownership and operation procedures, land preservation, conservation of endangered species and working conditions for employees and their contractors
●
Medium compliance for 12 criteria e.g appropriate use of agrochemicals, health and safety plans, trainings as well as information and management issues
●
Low compliance for 4 criteria -
energy efficiency, emissions reduction and a monitoring system for improved operations.
●
Non compliance: none
Development Plan established, full compliance by 2008, check points, follow-up audit
85May 6, 2009 Renewable Fuels85
R&D
●
Neste Oil is working with over 20 research institutions in Finland and around the world
●
Neste Oil has six research initiatives under way, aimed at identifying new raw material suitable for use as biofuel inputs
●
The research initiatives include non-food vegetable oil, such as jatropha, algae, and microbes
●
A pilot plant to demonstrate the use of forest residuals
is under construction in Finland
An example of the opportunities and challenges involved: algae ●
A growing amount of algae research is being carried out worldwide●
Oil has already been produced from algae on a laboratory scale●
Scaling up production to meet the volumes required by an industrial plant is a major challenge
86
Use of edible and nonfood raw materials
87
Bio-based diesel technology and feedstock evolution: new feedstocks will enter the market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2010 2015 2020
% o
f die
sel p
ool
3rd Generation2nd Generation1st Generation
illustrative
2% 5.75% 8% 10%
2020: Equal to 25 Mton
Rapid development of ALGAE and other non-food
feedstock
2% 5.75% 8% 10%
Rapeseed methyl ester
Hydrocarbons from biomass
Hydrocarbons from bio-oils
88May 6, 2009 Renewable Fuels88
Algae
Forest residuals
and biomass gasification
Microbes
Neste Oil’s six research initiatives
Nonfood vegetable oil
89
NOSE: Joint venture with Stora Enso to develop biofuels from wood residues
●
First step•
Demonstration plant at Stora Enso’s Varkaus Mill in Finland
•
Develop technology for purification of syngas •
Start-up in 2009
●
Second step •
Expand production to commercial scale
●
The project combines expertise from Neste Oil, Stora Enso, and VTT (the Technical Research Centre of Finland)
90
NOSE: Joint venture with Stora Enso to develop biofuels from wood residues
Forest
biomass
1 000 000 t/a) Dry
ing
Gas
ifier
Gas
purif
icat
ion
to
Ultr
a C
lean
Gas
Fisc
her-
Trop
csh
Synt
hesi
s Biodiesel crude
wax
to refining
100 000 t/a
RE
FIN
ING
WA
X IN
TO
FUE
L
Joint Venture
Steam
(energy
equivalent
to 100 000 t/a fuel
oil)
91
Drivers supporting lignocellulose-based renewable fuels
Wood residues as an example – StoraEnso/Neste Oil
1. Climate change
Renewable diesel made from lignocellulosic
feedstocks such as wood residues by Biomass to Liquids (BTL) technology is very greenhouse gas (GHG) efficient, i.e. resulting in low net CO2 emissions throughout the cycle
GHG balance is expected to have a direct impact on price level
2. Feedstock availability
Lignocellulosic
feedstocks need to be taken into use as current farming-
based biomass is not sufficient for the targeted growth
Strong pressure to find non-food raw materials
3. Product quality
Cleaner tailpipe emissions targeted
The properties of renewable diesel made using a BTL process are comparable or above those of conventional diesel
Automotive companies appreciate BTL as the quality and compatibility are better than those of 1st generation biodiesel = FAME (Fatty Acid
Methyl Ester)
Oil Retail
93
Strong retail position
Note: 03/2008
Neste Oil Retail
•
The leading petroleum products marketer and distributor in Finland
•
Important player in the growing markets in Baltic Rim including the St. Petersburg area
•
Approx. 1,170 retail outlets, of which 2/3
in Finland
881881
94
Significant restructuring on the Finnish market
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Development Of Market Shares Gasoline 2002 - 2008
Note : Sale of Esso and JET has resulted in significant redistribution of market sharesSources: Oil & Gas Federation; Neste Oil; BAH analysis
Neste Oil
Teboil
JET
ABC
Esso1)
St1
Shell
SEO
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Neste Oil
Teboil
JETABC
St1
Shell
SEO
Esso1)
Development Of Market SharesDiesel 2002 - 2008
95
Project to strengthen position in Finland
Source: Neste Oil and Finnish Oil and Gas Federation
27.341.8 30.8 44.1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Gasoline Diesel Heatingoil
Heavyfuel oil
Neste Oil market share
Competitor market shares
•
Build network concepts for customer segments
•
Improve loyalty system
•
Refresh brand image
•
Optimize network
•
Enhance functional quality
•
Improve cost efficiency
Retail market shares in Finland 2008
96
Neste Oil's retail network in Finland
Note: 12/2007
Unmanned stations D-stations
Dealer owned, Dealer operated
Company owned, Dealer operated
21% 29%
36% 13%
97
•
A significant player in the Baltic Rim –
especially in the St. Petersburg area
•
Growing market with healthy margins
•
We continue to grow in this market
Baltic Rim sales volumes 1,000 m3
Footprint in attractive growth markets
0200
400600800
1,0001,200
1,4001,600
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Gasoline Diesel Fuel Heating Oil
Notes: Baltic rim = Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, St. Petersburg area. Figures include both direct sales and sales through retail network.
Retail position outside Finland
98
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
St.Petersburg
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland
Gasoline Diesel
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
St.
Petersburg
Estonia Latv ia Lithuania Poland
Gasoline Diesel
Our market share in growing markets
2)
1)
1) Gasoline
and diesel together2) Market share
is around
10% in selected
areas
Estimate for our market shares in Baltic Rim area in 2009Estimated Baltic Rim total market growth in 2009
Highest margin and
our first priority
99
Financials
101
15,043
12,030
591
4,073
4371160
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2008
602
510
5022
55
20
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008
Sales Comparable operating profit
Gro
up
Oil
Ref
inin
g
Spec
ialty
Prod
ucts
Ren
ewab
lefu
els
Oil
Ret
ail
Ship
ping
Gro
up
Oil
Ref
inin
g
Spec
ialty
Prod
ucts
Ren
ewab
lefu
els
Oil
Ret
ail
Ship
ping
Key figures by segments
Neste Oil's reporting segments are the five business divisions as well as Other segment consisting of Group administration, shared service functions as well as Research and Technology and Neste Jacobs.
102
Key figures by segments
1,972
327 351 272
3,363
371
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
31.12.2008
13.9%
6.0%
19.2%
21.7%
0.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
31.12.2008
Net assets Comparable return on net assets, %G
roup
Oil
Ref
inin
g
Spec
ialty
Prod
ucts
Ren
ewab
lefu
els
Oil
Ret
ail
Ship
ping
Oil
Ref
inin
g
Ren
ewab
lefu
els
Spec
ialty
Prod
ucts
Oil
Ret
ail Sh
ippi
ng
Neste Oil's reporting segments are the five business divisions as well as Other segment consisting of Group administration, shared service functions as well as Research and Technology and Neste Jacobs.
103
Indicative Comparable EPS
Comparable EPS = comparable EBIT –
reported financial costs –
taxes (26%) / reported number of shares
0.34
0.520.60
0.26
1.72
0.46
0.65
0.49
0.27
1.87
0.30
0.51 0.56
0.21
1.58
0.09
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-Q4
Q1
2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009
104
Q1/09 comparable EBIT of EUR 56 million
1) Excluding inventory gains/losses, changes in the fair value of oil- and freight derivatives and capital gains/losses
119
189202
87
158
225
159
84
119
181199
103
56
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09
MEUR2007 20082006
105
Comparable operating profit EUR 56 million (119 million)Total refining margin 9.44 usd/bbl (11.91)Operational cash flow EUR 17 million (-113 million)Liquidity position remained healthy with total liquidity*
of 1,485 million euros
Renewable diesel projects proceeded according to planSpecial attention to fixed costs
Major organizational restructuring was startedTarget to improve efficiency, customer orientation and
implementation of the corporate strategy
First quarter 2009 in brief
Results
Investments &
fixed costs
Organizational changes
* Cash and cash equivalents and commited, utilized credit facilities
106
2008 comparable EBIT of EUR 602 million
565
597
626
602
530
540
550
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
2005 2006 2007 2008
MEUR %
15.5
13.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008
ROACE
107
Key Figures EUR million unless otherwise noted
Q1/09 Q1/08 2008 2007
Revenue 2,053 3,297 15,043 12,103Operating profit before depreciation 150 263 409 996Operating profit 95 204 186 801
- comparable operating profit 1) 56 119 602 626Profit before income taxes 81 191 129 763
EPS, EUR 0.24 0.56 0.38 2.25
Net cash from operating activities 17 -113 512 541Capital expenditure and investments in shares 174 82 508 334
31 Mar 09 31 Mar 08
Interest bearing net debt 1,216 1,212Capital employed 3,491 3,591ROCE, (Pre-tax), % 11.7 24.0ROE, % 11.1 24.2Personnel, average 5,252 4,912
1) Excluding inventory gains/losses, changes in the fair value of oil- and freight derivatives and gains/losses from asset sales
108
Balance Sheet
1,8682,453
3,112
2,793
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
31 Mar 2009 31 Mar 08
1,488 1,655
1,263 1,275
2,2292,316
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
31 Mar 09 31 Mar 08
Total assets Total equity and liabilities
Non-current assetsCurrent assets
Equity Int-bear. liabilitiesInt-free liabilities
4,980 5,246 4,980 5,246
31 Mar 09 31 Mar 08
Capital employed, MEUR 3,491 3,591Equity-to-assets, % 44.9 44.2Leverage, % 35.3 34.3Gearing, % 54.6 52.3
Non-current assets as classified as held for sale
109
MEUR Q1/09 Q1/08 2008 2007
Profit before taxes 81 191 129 763Adjustments total 108 78 249 184Change in working capital -224 -337 248 -189Cash from operations -35 -68 626 758Net finance costs 14 -23 -29 -40Taxes 38 -22 -85 -177Net cash from operations 17 -113 512 541Capital expenditure and investments in shares -174 -82 -508 -334Other -53 -15 13 -13Cash flow before financing activities -210 -210 17 194Net change in loans 201 468 244 20Dividends paid 0 -245 -256 -231Net increase/decrease in cash -9 13 5 -17
Cash at the end of the period
Cash Flow
110
Outlook for 2009 (28-4-2009)●
The global economy has not improved and oil demand forecasts have been revised down
●
Drop of demand will coincide with new refining capacity coming onstream, which will continue to put pressure on refining margins
●
Diesel margins are expected to stay well lower than in previous years
●
Slightly better gasoline margins expected compared to the previous outlook
●
Demand for base oils to stay weaker compared to 2008. Personnel at the PAO plant in Belgium will be laid off for four weeks in May
●
Oil freight rates seem to remain very weak throughout the year
●
Renewable Fuels segment is unlikely to report positive results in 2009, due to increasing costs related to expansion of the business
●
Low demand will continue to reflect in Oil Retail’s sales volumes and margins
●
A planned two-month shutdown on Production Line 4 started in mid April to enhance the line’s productivity
●
Capex estimate revised down to EUR 890 million from the previous estimate of 950 million
111
Segment financials – Oil Products
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/09
Oil Products
Reported EBIT 197 272 15 -301 183 106Comparable EBIT 113 162 173 154 602 64
Depreciation 46 41 44 44 175 44
Investments 33 39 46 47 165 43
Net assets 2,951 2,436 2,660Comparable RONA, % 16.2 21.2 10.0
SALES VOLUMES1000 tons 3,256 3,755 3,791 3,735 14,571 3,430Million barrels 25 28 29 28 110 26
REFINING MARGINSIEA Brent cracking margin, $/bbl 2.87 5.51 5.24 4.26 4.74 2.34Neste Oil Total Refining Margin, $/bbl 11.91 12.38 13.54 15.05 13.39 9.44
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/09
Oil Products
Reported EBIT 197 272 15 -301 183 106Comparable EBIT 113 162 173 154 602 64
Depreciation 46 41 44 44 175 44
Investments 33 39 46 47 165 43
Net assets 2,951 2,436 2,660Comparable RONA, % 16.2 21.2 10.0
SALES VOLUMES1000 tons 3,256 3,755 3,791 3,735 14,571 3,430Million barrels 25 28 29 28 110 26
REFINING MARGINSIEA Brent cracking margin, $/bbl 2.87 5.51 5.24 4.26 4.74 2.34Neste Oil Total Refining Margin, $/bbl 11.91 12.38 13.54 15.05 13.39 9.44
112
Segment financials – Renewable Fuels
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/09
Renewable Fuels
Reported EBIT -3 -4 -7 2 -12 1 12 -2 -9 2 -10
Comparable EBIT -5 -5 -6 3 -13 2 13 -3 -10 2 -7
Depreciation 0 1 2 2 5 2 1 2 2 7 2
Investments 17 17 13 22 69 27 50 64 108 249 123
Net assets 88 112 122 142 142 166 212 259 371 371 462
Comparable RONA, % -26.3 -22.7 -22.1 -12.3 -12.3 5.2 15.9 8.2 0.9 0.9 -6.6
Sales volumes in 1000 tons 0 0 5 23 28 18 35 23 70 94 31
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/09
Renewable Fuels
Reported EBIT -3 -4 -7 2 -12 1 12 -2 -9 2 -10
Comparable EBIT -5 -5 -6 3 -13 2 13 -3 -10 2 -7
Depreciation 0 1 2 2 5 2 1 2 2 7 2
Investments 17 17 13 22 69 27 50 64 108 249 123
Net assets 88 112 122 142 142 166 212 259 371 371 462
Comparable RONA, % -26.3 -22.7 -22.1 -12.3 -12.3 5.2 15.9 8.2 0.9 0.9 -6.6
Sales volumes in 1000 tons 0 0 5 23 28 18 35 23 70 94 31
113
Segment financials – Oil Retail
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/08
Oil Retail
Reported EBIT 11 18 22 9 60 11 11 9 -6 25 12
Comparable EBIT 11 17 21 10 59 9 11 7 -5 22 12
Depreciation 6 7 7 7 27 8 8 9 6 31 7
Investments 7 11 9 24 51 8 15 18 22 63 4
Net assets 319 318 368 381 381 362 385 351 351 351 321
Comparable RONA, % 13.4 17.3 19.5 17.1 17.1 9.7 10.7 9.7 6 6 14.3
Sales volumes, 1000m3 1,144 1,097 1,087 1,190 4,519 1,056 1,051 1,104 1,141 4,353 1,021
SEGMENT FINANCIALSEUR million Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 2008 Q1/08
Oil Retail
Reported EBIT 11 18 22 9 60 11 11 9 -6 25 12
Comparable EBIT 11 17 21 10 59 9 11 7 -5 22 12
Depreciation 6 7 7 7 27 8 8 9 6 31 7
Investments 7 11 9 24 51 8 15 18 22 63 4
Net assets 319 318 368 381 381 362 385 351 351 351 321
Comparable RONA, % 13.4 17.3 19.5 17.1 17.1 9.7 10.7 9.7 6 6 14.3
Sales volumes, 1000m3 1,144 1,097 1,087 1,190 4,519 1,056 1,051 1,104 1,141 4,353 1,021
114
Key sensitivities for 2009
Approximate Effect on Neste Oil’s 2009 EBIT before hedgesAnnual change
●
EUR/USD-rate +/-
10%
+/-
100-120
MEUR
●
Total Refining Margin +/-
1.00 USD/bbl
+/-
110 MUSD
●
Crude oil price +/-
1.00 USD/bbl
+/-
10 MUSD
●
Crude oil freight rates +/-
10 Aframax
WS points
+/-
10 MUSD
115
Capex, investments by gategory
Capital expenditure• Maintenance related expenditure at or below depreciation also in the coming years
• Significant growth related investments expected
195 223153153
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009e 2009eMaintenance Productivity Strategic Depreciation
668668
535535
334334
508508
890890
116
Net working capital and inventories
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500
31 Dec 2006 31 Dec 2007 30 June 2008 31 Dec 2008 31 Mar 2009
mill
ion
EUR
Inventories Net working capital
117
DivestmentsMaintenance capexStrategic and productivity investmentsDividend
Net cash from operations
Sources and uses of cash
sources uses
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
sources uses sources uses sources uses sources uses
mill
ion
EUR
2007 2006 2005 2008
118
Key Costs
●
Material
costs
have
increased
as a result
of increased
crude
oil prices
EUR million 2005 2006 2007 2008
Personnel
223
224
256
315Materials and services 8,443
11,183
10,279
13,657(Feedstocks
account for more than 99%Depreciation, amortisation
and write-downs
153
153
195
223Other operating expenses
534
597
683
719
Total 9,353 12,157 11,413 14,914
Share & Funding
120
121
Share performance and ownershipShare price development
Shareholders by sector
50.2 %
17.4 %
12.0 %
20.4 %
Finnish State
Households
Finnish Institutions
Non-FinnishShareholders
0.00 €
5.00 €
10.00 €
15.00 €
20.00 €
25.00 €
30.00 €
35.00 €
Apr
-200
5
Jun-
2005
Aug
-200
5
Oct
-200
5
Dec
-200
5
Feb-
2006
Apr
-200
6
Jun-
2006
Aug
-200
6
Oct
-200
6
Dec
-200
6
Feb-
2007
Apr
-200
7
Jun-
2007
Aug
-200
7
Oct
-200
7
Dec
-200
7
Feb-
2008
Apr
-200
8
Jun-
2008
Aug
-200
8
Oct
-200
8
Dec
-200
8
Feb-
2009
122
Neste Oil’s credit programs in place
Total of EUR 400 million unsecured short term notes with maturities less than one year
Dealers: Pohjola Bank, Nordea, Sampo Bank plc,Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) and Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ).
Senior term notes of EUR 200 million
4 years floating rate note 1/2005Issued: EUR 80 million Yield: three-month euribor +0.40%
7 years fixed rate note 1/2005Issued: EUR 120 millionCoupon rate: 3.50%, issue price: 99.606%, mid-swap +0.60%
Joint Lead Arrangers: Sampo Bank and Pohjola Bank
Domestic Bonds 2005 Domestic Commercial Paper Program 2005
Revolving Credit Facility 2005
Overdraft facilities for bank accounts with selected cash pool banks
EUR 1.5 billion
5 years (+1+1)
Mandated Lead Arrangers: Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Nordea and SEB
Participating Banks: Calyon, Svenska Handelsbanken, Danske Bank, Sampo Bank ,Pohjola Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC, HSH Nordbank, Dresdner Bank, Swedbank, ABN Amro Bank, Bank DnB NORD, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, ING Bank, Deutsche Bank, BBVA, Societe Generale, DBS Bank
Investment Loans 2005-2007
Bilateral Loans 2008
Loans from Scandinavian financial institutions totaling EUR 315 million, average maturity 5 y.
Loans from EIB and NIB totaling EUR 230million
Max.
EUR 50 million per bank totaling EUR 150 million
123
121
20
83
174
110
754
LT Fin. inst 60%Domestic Bond 10%LT Others 2%Leasing 7%CP 14%ST Others 9%
121
20
83
174
110
754
LT Fin. inst 60%Domestic Bond 10%LT Others 2%Leasing 7%CP 14%ST Others 9%
Interest-bearing liabilities 1)
974
298
Long-term Short-term1) At the end of March, 2009
•
Interest-bearing
net
debt
EUR 1,217
million
•
Total
interest-bearing
liabilities EUR 1,263
million
•
Short-term
interest
bearing liabilities
EUR 289
million
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+
Short-term Long-term
TOTAL1,263 MEUR
Maturity profile
Interest-bearing liablities, Meur
Interest-bearing liabilities, Meur
TOTAL1,263 MEUR
124
Liquidity and financing
• Total liquidity at the end of December EUR 1,485 million• New funding during 2008 totaling EUR 365 million •
Committed facilities include: Revolving credit facilities totalling EUR 1,575 million Overdraft facilities totaling EUR 150 million
•
Average interest rate 2.8% and average maturity 4.4 years•
Flow risk EUR 6.2 million1)
•
No financial covenants in existing loan agreements•
No major refinancing needs until 2012
•
Short-term financing needs met by revolving credit facility and overdrafts, commercial papers (EUR 370 million) in reserve
•
No credit losses with counterparty banks•
Syndicate banking group mainly unchanged and consists of relatively strong banks
1) The change in interest expenses within one year if interest rates change 1%At the end of March, 2009
125
Financial risk management
91%
8% 1%
EUR USD Other
•
Foreign Exchange Risks•
Policy
is to hedge
the estimated
net
cash
flow
on rolling
basis:•
100% of the next
6 months•
50% of the following
6 months
•
Both
option and forward
strategies
in use
•
Interest Rate Risks•
Average
Interest
Rate
of the loan portfolio
is 2.8%•
Flow
Risk
is EUR 6.2
million
1)
•
Duration
benchmark
target
of the loan portfolio
is 12 months
1) The change in interest expenses within one year if interest rates change 1%
TOTAL1,263 MEUR
Currency structure of interest-bearing liabilities, %
At the end of March, 2009
126
Global Crude Oil and Products Demand and Supply
128
Crude Oil
130
Oil consumption by market areas
Source: IEA Oil Market Report 10-April-2009
•
Total
consumption
in 2009
is estimated
to be
85.3
million
bbl/d
•
Asia Pacific drives
the world:•
2009
estimated
growth
rates•Asia Pacific -0.3%•North America -1.7%•Europe&Eurasia
-1.9%•Total
World growth
-0.6%
(-2.4
million
bbl/d)
35%
18%9%4%
29%
5%
Americas Europe Middle EastAfrica Asia Pacific FSU
World consumption by geographical area
131
Brent crude oil and Brent/Urals differentialBrent dated
USD/bbl
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Q12005
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009
Q20
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
132
Qualities of The Most Important Crude Oils
API gravity Sulfur
Brent dated 38° 0.4%
Fortis (usually sets daily Brent dtd quote) 38° 0.6%
Urals 31° 1.3%
WTI 40° 0.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2009e
Neste Oil aims to maximize Urals usage; estimate for 2009 is 3/4 of total feedstocks used
133
Oil transportations in the Baltic Sea area (Million tons)
CRUDE PRODUCTS
Belarus
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Russia
Germany
SwedenNorway Finland
ButingeKlaipeda
Tallinn
VysotskPrimorskSt. Petersburg
RigaVentspils
Kaliningrad
Gdansk
Paldisk
Sillamäe
3,5 1,311,46 10
2003 2004 2005
8,6
2006
8,5
2007
2,3
17,7
44,857,4
2003 2004 2005
66,1
2006
74,2
2007
5,20,7
0,1 1,7
2004 2005
9,5
2006
11,7
2007
7,212,6 11,8
2003 2004 2005 2006
12,6
2007
14,7
2,1
22,529,5
14
10
7
2003 2004 2005
0,1
27,6
2006
0,5
20
2007
14,515,913,5
2,63,3 2,1
2003 2004 2005
16,0
2006
16,1
2007
1,4
1,9
2005
1,7
2007
10,87 6,1
2003 2004 2005
5,9
2006
4,6
2007
3,42,42,9
5,23,3 3,5
2003 2004 2005
4,6
3,3
2006
6,1
1
2007
6,6 6,5 5,8
2003 2004 2005 2006
6,6
2007
6,3
8,44,4 3,2
2003 2004 2005
4,7
2006
0,1
4
2007
0,6
2007
74,2
2008
134
Russian oil production and exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Russian oil exports from Primorsk harbour, MtRussian oil production volume, Mt
31%
36%
7%
5%
2%
4%
2%
2%4%
2%3%
2%
Novorossiysk Primorsk Germany
Poland Hungary Butinge
Slovakia Gdansk Tuapse
Czech Rep Odessa Pivdenne
Russian pipeline oil export by destination 2005
21%
20%
16%
20%
9%
7%3%3%
1%0%
TNK-BP Lukoil Surgutneftegaz
Rosneft Sibneft Tatneft
Slavneft Bashneft Yukos
Gazprom
Russian pipeline oil export by producer 2005
135
Top crude oil exporters 2006
note: difference between supply and demandsource: Pira 2007
Products
137
Regional Consumption by Product Group 2008
OECD Europe 15.17 MM bbl/dOECD North America 24.32 MM bbl/d
NON OECD China 7,862 MM bbl/dOECD Pacific 8,04 MM bbl/d
6 %7 %
16 %
9 %
41 %
11 %
10 %
LPG & Ethane Naphta Motor GasolineJet & Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel OilOther Products
8%10%
18%
4%36%
8%
16%
LPG & Ethane Naphta Motor GasolineJet & Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel OilOther Products
12%
20%
19%11%
21%
11%6%
LPG & Ethane Naphta Motor GasolineJet & Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel OilOther Products
Source: IEA Oil Market Report 16-Jan-2009
11%1%
44%7%
21%
5%
11%
LPG & Ethane Naphta Motor GasolineJet & Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel OilOther Products
138IEA December-January 2008-2009
Demand growth returns when global economy recovers
?
• The idea of how demand growth will shape up has not fundamentally changed• At the moment we don’t know yet when one can expect oil demand growth to
resume and where on the development curve demand will then be• Latest IEA medium-term forecast is from December 2008 but this month 2009
demand estimate was cut by 1 mb/d to –
0.5 mb/d, will growth then return?
Global cumulative demand growth
139
This market environment favours diesel producers
Gasoline Middle distillatesFuel Oil Other
Gasoline Middle distillatesFuel Oil Other
Simple refiner(25% of the global capacity)
Complex gasoline producer in the US
Gasoline oriented producer
Low refining margin at the moment
Fuel oil oriented producer
Weak refining margin
Complex middle distilate producer
(Neste Oil)
Middle distillate oriented producer
High refining margin
Gasoline Middle distillatesFuel Oil Other
140
Resolving European product imbalances
Deficit
Surplus
Jet fuel
GasolineDiesel/gasoil
• Europe
has
a significant
surplus
of gasoline
and a deficit
in middle
distillates• Most of excess
gasoline
is exported
to fill
the deficit
existing
in the USA• Russia
is the most
important
source
of heating
oil and diesel, which
requiressulfur
removal
to meet
European
traffic
fuel
emission standards• Jet fuel
deficit
is mostly
covered
through
imports
from
the Middle East
141
Transport fuels in EU - Europe is a diesel market
2020
Gasoline
Diesel
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Mill
ion
tonn
es p
er y
ear
Source: Eurostat Source: Purvin &Gertz
389
80
• CO2 emissions
legislation
favours
diesel vehicles• Growth
of heavy transport based
on diesel technology• By 2030 over
2/3 of all
European
transport energy
consumption• Trends
similar
elsewhere
142
European trends
Transport sector●
Largest energy consumer: 31% of total, rising to 33% by 2030. ●
Largest oil consumer: 60% of total, rising to over 64% in 2030.
Road transport dominates●
Over 80% of total transport energy consumption. ●
By 2030 cars and trucks will account for
some 50% of total European oil consumption –
unless alternative transportation fuels emerge.
Similar trends around the world
143
Middle distillates demand to show the strongest growth
Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
•
Dieselization of European car fleet likely to continue•
Jet fuel demand is on the rise•
Healthy demand for gasoil in power generation•
Possibility of shipping moving into use of gasoil instead of bunker fuel in the future (?)
6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.6
20.123.1 25.0 26.2
29.8
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
mill
ion
bbl/d
Jet/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil
6.5 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.6
20.123.1 25.0 26.2
29.8
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
mill
ion
bbl/d
Jet/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil
144
Note: includes refinery supply + non refinery supply (for example biodiesel, ethanol and LPG from NGL production) Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
Global supply/demand balance of middle distillates
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Asia
Pac
ific
Mid
dle
East
Nor
thAm
eric
a
Latin
Amer
ica
Gre
ater
Euro
pe
FSU
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a
Glo
bal,
Mt
2007 2010
Mt Diesel/Gasoil
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Asia
Pac
ific
Mid
dle
East
Nor
thAm
eric
a
Latin
Amer
ica
Gre
ater
Euro
pe
FSU
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a
Glo
bal,
Mt
2007 2010
Mt Diesel/GasoilDemand/supply balance of middle distillates
145
Share of diesel cars of new registrations 2008
43.6 47.8
50.7
69.3
25.1
79.077.3
3.668.4
33.5
45.9
49.636.2
54.6
77.0
72.4
32.3
Association of European Automobile Manufacturers
2008: 52.7 %(EU-15, Iceland, Norwayand Switzerland)
146
Diesel balances in Europe 2007 and 2015 ( Mt/a )
Whole Europe
-40
-30
-20
-10
02007 2015
NWE
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
52007 2015
Eastern & Central Europe
-10
-5
0
52007 2015
Mediterranean
-30
-20
-10
02007 2015
Balances include :
+ 7 Mt in 2007
+ 16 Mt in 2015 of renewable diesel
for whole Europe
Source: Wood MackenzieSource: Wood Mackenzie
147
In gasoil (diesel) road use is growing – other use is stable
Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
Gas
oil D
eman
d, M
b/d
.
Road Transport Residential/Commercial Other
148
19.7 21.3 22.2 22.7 23.9
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
mill
ion
bbl/d
Gasoline
19.7 21.3 22.2 22.7 23.9
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
mill
ion
bbl/d
Gasoline
Asia will be the main driver of gasoline demand
Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
•
North America will remain the biggest gasoline market but growth prospects have softened
-
Demand destruction due to recession
-
Increasing use of ethanol
-
Urge to increase fuel efficiency
149
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80As
ia P
acific
Mid
dle
East
Nor
thAm
eric
a
Latin
Amer
ica
Gre
ater
Euro
pe
FSU
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a
Glo
bal,
Mt
2007 2010
Mt Gasoline
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80As
ia P
acific
Mid
dle
East
Nor
thAm
eric
a
Latin
Amer
ica
Gre
ater
Euro
pe
FSU
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a
Glo
bal,
Mt
2007 2010
Mt Gasoline
Note: includes refinery supply + non refinery supply (for example biodiesel, ethanol and LPG from NGL production) Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
Demand/supply balance of gasoline
Regional imbalances offer opportunities for exportrefineries
150
Fuel oil use as bunker fuel is growing, other demand declining
Source: Wood Mackenzie January 2009
•
Bunker demand is expected to increase by 2% annually•
Bunker specifications are stricter, especially in the North Sea and the Baltic
•
Power generation using more and more gasoil, renewables and other alternatives (coal, natural gas)
2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6
7.4 6.6 5.8 5.6 5.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2008 2010 2015
Fuel
Oil
Dem
and,
Mb/
d.
Bunkers Inland
151
Global supply/demand balance (2006 and 2010)Fuel Oil
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80As
ia P
acific
Mid
dle
East
Nor
thAm
eric
a
Latin
Amer
ica
Gre
ater
Euro
pe
FSU
Sub-
Saha
ran
Afric
a
2006 2010
Mt
Deficit
Surplus
Note: includes refinery supply + non refinery supply (for example biodiesel, ethanol and LPG from NGL production) Source: Wood Mackenzie
152
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OECD China Other Asia Middle East Other Non-OECD
IEA, KBC, Wood Mackenzie, Company view
Jamnagar, India = 580,000 bd,mechanical completion 8/2008,full utilization estimated 2Q2009
Port Arthur, GaryvilleWood River, Borger> 600,000 bd in USA
China 2.1 mbd to meetdomestic demand growth
• Due to weak demand overcapacity occurs now and eases in the following years assuming growth returns• After 2010 most major projects delayed, some canceled such as the largest, Kuwait’s 615,000 bd Al-Zour• Some investments will be completed also in 2013 but all major ones seem to be delayed beyond that
Likely distillation capacity additions (mbd) Neste Oil view, February 2009 (now ~ 657 existing regular refineries)
Mb/d
?(some + slippage
from earlier)
153
Porvoo: 205,000 bbl/d-Nelson 12.1 / Solomon 14.5
Plock: 276,000 bbl/d -Nelson comp. index 9.5
Schwedt: 210,000 bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index 10.36
Leuna: bbl/d 227,000 bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index NA.
Karlsruhe: 302,000 bbl/d-Nelson comp. 9.75 Index
Sarroch: 300 000 bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index 9.9
Raffinerie Mediterranee: 320 000bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index 9.3
Anvors (Antwerp) : 360,000bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index NA.
Pernis: 416,000 bbl/d-Nelson comp. Index NA.
Nelson complexity averages:
• Europe 6.5• USA 9.5
Notes:
1. Supersites classification is based on Wood Mackenzie ”global Refinery View –map”2. Capacities are atmospheric distillation capacities
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Supersites in Europe – Porvoo Refinery is one of them supersite: strategic, large scale, competitive assets usually integrated with large petrochemical operations
154
Neste vs. peers’ (independent refineries) refining capacities in Europe
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
Unipetrol
Lotos
Motor Oil
Neste Oil
Saras
Mol
Hellenic Petroleum
ERG
Tupras
PKN Orlen
Petroplus Holdings
bbl / yearSource: companies
155
Source: BernsteinResearch
Neste Oil’s Assets Are Highly Complex
156
Sustainability &
Social responsibility
158
159
Material balance and emissions
160
CO2 emissions and emission rights
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e
mill
lion
tons
CO2-emissions allocated CO2-rights
•
We have a short position around 0.3 million tons/a
161
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sul
fur m
ax. (
mg/
kg)
EUNeste Futura
EU 2005 ... 2008: Sulfur
max. 50 mg/kg
Sulfur content of gasoline
Neste Oil 2004 ... Sulfur
max. 10 mg/kg
162
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sul
fur m
ax. (
mg/
kg
EU Neste Oil
EU 2005 ... 2008: Sulfur
max. 50 mg/kg
Neste Oil 2004 ... Sulfur
max. 10 mg/kg
Sulfur content of diesel fuel
163
Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) policy of Neste Oil
(approved by the Neste Executive Team March 11th 2005)
We●
develop, make and deliver to our customers superior products and technologies which are safe and environmentally sound
●
comply with all applicable regulatory requirements ●
regard good handling of HSE issues as an integral part of our business activities, and aim at efficient management of related risks
●
act responsibly in society and in our use of natural resources, and make decisions supportive of sustainable development
●
prove our commitment to the Responsible Care ProgramSee: www.nesteoil.com/environment
164
Social responsibility
●
Sustainability
principles
for biofuels●
Supplier
selection
criteria●
Neste Oil follows •
the recommendations covering the operations of multinational companies issued by the OECD,
•
recommendations on good corporate governance.
●
The company also operates in accordance with
•
the UN Charter on Human Rights •
the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work.
•
These ban actions infringing people’s human rights, discrimination, forced labor, and the use of child labor.
●
Neste Oil abides by these requirements in its own operations and expects its partners to do the same
CEO Declaration of Support for the Responsible Care® Global Charter
I support the Responsible Care® Global Charter which seeks companies to strengthen Responsible Care worldwide working with national chemical associations.
By implementing the Charter, Neste Oil will:– continue to improve its environmental, health and safety performance– advance sustainable development – champion and facilitate the appropriate extension of Responsible Care
across the business value chain, and– address stakeholder expectations in the continuing development of
Responsible Care
As part of these commitments, Neste Oil will work with customers and suppliers to manage its chemical products using a risk-based and life-cycle oriented approach supported by sound scientific information. These commitments include making relevant risk information publicly transparent and cooperating with governments and the public to promote the safe use of chemicals worldwide.
By implementing the Responsible Care® Global Charter, Neste Oil is playing its part in improving the quality of life of the global community.
Espoo, March 3, 2006
Risto RinnePresident and CEOG
LOB
AL
CH
AR
TE
R
165
The key social, environmental and governance related risks facing the business and what Neste Oil does to minimized these risks
●
Strategic risk: ability to respond to developing product market –
future growth in climate benign products
•
Neste Oil strategy statement in Sep 2006: risk eliminated
●
Ensuring renewable raw material acceptability
•
Sustainability criteria for biofuels, supply chain management, active work to promote certifications, flexibility of NExBTL
technology: risk minimized
●
Major ship wreck in the Baltic Sea: business wide image risk
•
Trained own crew, double-hull fleet, escort tugs, vetting process: risks controlled
●
Global market with local regulations: level playing field unrealistic target for the moment
●
Increased conversion rates with increased energy use at the refineries: challenging to meet simultaneously CO2 reduction targets and tightening product specifications; and maintain profitability
166
●
Products meet the most stringent environmental demands
●
NExBTL Diesel is produced in accordance with the principles of sustainable development
●
Progressive product and process development – exporter of clean traffic fuel technology
●
Highly efficient production processes, which comply with the ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, and ISO 9001:2000 environmental, health and safety, and quality standards
●
Committed to Responsible Care initiative since 1992; RC Global Charter 2006
●
Well prepared for the new European chemical legislation, the REACH
Strong Commitment to the Environment
167
Appendix
169
HSE Simo Honkanen
Finance Ilkka Salonen
Production & Logistics Ilkka Poranen
Human Resources Hannele Jakosuo-Jansson
Technology & Strategy Lars Peter Lindfors
Communications Osmo Kammonen
Legal Affairs Matti Hautakangas
President &CEO Matti Lievonen
Oil Products
Matti Lehmus
Renewable Fuels
Jarmo Honkamaa
Deputy CEO
Oil Retail
Sakari Toivola
Common functions
Business Areas
Neste Executive BoardNeste Executive Board
170
Management's Compensation
1) Annual salary and fringe benefits2) A short-term incentive bonuses●
Based on both the Company's financial performance and the individual performance
3) A long-term management performance share arrangement●
Includes two three-year earning periods, which will start in 2007 and 2010, with benefits in 2010 and 2013
●
Maximum amount payable for each three-year earning period, however, will be a person's accumulated fixed gross annual salary for three years.
●
Maximum amount of total rewards in the first program will be equivalent in value to 360,000 Neste Oil shares.
●
Triggers for paying an incentive will be the development of Neste Oil's comparable operating profit and the total shareholder return of Neste Oil's
share against an international oil industry share index (FTSE Global Energy Total
Return Index)
●
The plan prohibits the transfer of shares within one year from the end of the earning period, i.e. the length of the plan is four years for each lot of shares
●
The company’s senior management will be required to own shares equivalent in
value to their annual gross salary. This obligation to own shares relates
to shares earned from these incentive programs, and will be valid as long as service or employment in the Group continues
171
Finland Russia BelgiumUS Latvia EstoniaLithuania Poland UKSweden Canada SingaporeThe Netherlands
1.1%
25.1%
37 %
27.6%
Oil Products Renewable FuelsOil Retail Other
Employees by segment Employees by country
Total (average) 5,162
Finland 75%
Russia 18%
Other 7%
Personnel
172
Notes
173
●
Market Data section on www.nesteoil.com
(Investors section)●
Weekly
updated
data on international reference
refining
margin, product
margins, crude
oil price
and heavy/light
price
differential●
Refining
margin
calculation
formula and refining
margin
yields●
Neste Oil's
feedstock
and product
yields
2008●
Additional
data on refining
process, industry
demand
and supply
and inventories
NESTE OIL RESULTS IN 2009
Q1 28.4.2009 Q2 30.7.2009 Q3 29.10.2009
www.nesteoil.com [email protected]
174
Crude Oil
From Totons
(metric) kilolitres barrels US gallons tons per year
Tonnes (metric) 1 1.165 7.33 307.86 -Kilolitres 0.8581 1 6.2898 264.17 -Barrels 0.1364 0.159 1 42 -US Gallons 0.00325 0.0038 0.0238 1 -Barrels per day - - - - 49.8(based on worldwide average gravity)
Products
From To convert tons kilolitres tonsbarrels to barrels to tons to kilolitres
tons
LPG 0.086 11.6 0.542 1.844Gasoline 0.118 8.5 0.740 1.351Kerosene 0.128 7.8 0.806 1.24Gas oil / Diesel 0.133 7.5 0.839 1.192Fuel oil 0.149 6.7 0.939 1.065
Units and conversion multiples