Need for Precision Agriculture in the World SOIL 4213 BIOEN 4213 World population and the...
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Transcript of Need for Precision Agriculture in the World SOIL 4213 BIOEN 4213 World population and the...
Need for Precision Agriculture in the World
SOIL 4213BIOEN 4213
http://csf.colorado.edu/pop/
World population and the environment
http://www.globalissues.org
http://dieoff.com/page174.htm
(world population of 2 billion, adjusted over a century)
"As the difficulty in feeding 90 million more people each year becomes apparent, FOOD SECURITY MAY REPLACE MILITARY SECURITY as the principal preoccupation of governments. For many countries, security now depends more on protecting their territory from soil erosion than it does on protecting it from military invasion." by Ronald Bleier [email protected]
If we were to maintain our present rate of population growth, by 2095 the world's population would reach almost 13.7 billion.
1999 UN Population projections. The medium fertility scenario predicts 9.5 billion in 2050, peaking at 11 billion in 2200.
"World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion." -- World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 28 February 2001, p.5
Population in 2001
Total (roundedin millions)
Density (People persquare kilometer)
GNP rank
United States 286 31 1Japan 127 337 2Germany 82 230 3France 59 108 4United Kingdom 60 244 5Italy 58 191 6China (12% world growth) 1,285 134 7India (21) 1,025 312 11Russian Federation 145 8 16Indonesia (3) 214 113 30Bangladesh (4) 140 975 53Nigeria 117 127 55
y = 2.0443x - 3994.3R2 = 0.95
0102030405060708090
100
1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004Year
Fert
ilize
r N
, Mt
x 1,
000,
000
Figure 1. World fertilizer N consumption in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999, and projected linear consumption. (2050 = 196 million metric tons)
y = 35778x + 3E+06R2 = 0.94
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
World consumption of fertilizer N, Mt x 1000000
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n
Figure 2. World population as a function of world consumption of fertilizer N in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999 (World Population in 1960 was 3 billion)
0
20
40
60
80
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120
140
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005Year
Mt g
rain
/Mt o
f N
Figure 3. Metric tons of grain produced per metric ton of fertilizer N applied in the world, from 1961 to 1999.
Developed Developing
Year N applied in cereals †
Cereal production Area harvested
Mg Grain/ Mg N applied
N applied in cereals †
Cereal production
Area harvested
Mg Grain/ Mg N applied
Mg x 106 Mg x 106 ha Mg x 106 Mg x 106 ha x 106 1990 21 913 279 42.99 25 1,037 428 41.45 1991 19 837 272 42.08 25 1,051 431 41.33 1992 17 891 274 50.04 26 1,081 434 40.93 1993 17 803 267 44.70 25 1,099 428 43.02 1994 16 857 259 50.46 26 1,099 435 41.44 1995 17 769 252 44.42 29 1,127 434 37.93 1996 17 867 258 48.83 31 1,203 445 37.88 1997 17 907 259 52.81 30 1,188 439 38.45 1998 17 858 237 48.21 31 1,224 443 38.53 1999 17 848 230 47.22 33 1,230 441 36.90 2000 na 867 235 - na 1,186 434 - 2001 na 854 236 - na 1,189 432 - † N applied in cereals computed as 60% of the total (Alexandratos, 1995, p. 190). ‡ production, and consumption data from FAO, 1999.
Table 1. Nitrogen applied for cereal production, area harvested, and grain produced per unit of N applied in the developed and developing world, 1990 to 2001‡.
Need for Precision Agriculture (1)
In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA
Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by 1991. Irrigated land in the USA peaked at
20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since 1989.
Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha
Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares.
World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996).
33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation
Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050
Need for Precision Agriculture (2)
Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small (www.igc.org/millennium).
A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production.
Need for Precision Agriculture (3)
Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level
Increased production per unit area will be essential.
Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community.
Need for Precision Agriculture (4)Need for Precision Agriculture (4)
Precision Agriculture?Precision Agriculture?Human needEnvironment
– Hypoxia – $750,000,000 (excess N flowing down the
Mississippi river/yr)Developed vs Developing CountriesHigh vs Low yielding environments
Continued success in wheat germplasm and technology dissemination worldwide depends on the free and uninhibited flow of genetic materials and information. Restrictions imposed on such movement due to intellectual property protection could have serious consequences on the ability of developing countries to sustain wheat productivity growth.
…. further gains would have to come from specifically targeting breeding efforts to the unique characteristics of marginal environments