Nearest neighbour analysis: toward improved inventory and planning for use of commercial forest resources in PNG

Rod Keenan

PNG– People– Landscapes– Forests

BRS project objectives and activitiesComponents of forest planningInventory and area issues Forest growth modellingIntegration and adoption

PNG Facts

Population 5.6 millionIncreasing at over 2.3% per yearLife expectancy 58 yearsHigh diversity of ethnic groups750 different languagesIndependent in 1975Australia’s largest aid recipient ($300 million/yr)

PNG Economy

Two worlds: formal and subsistence economiesHeavy reliance on commodity exportsPetroleumMining (copper, gold, silver)Agriculture (coffee, palm oil, cocoa, copra)Forest productsFishing

Real GDP growth

-4-202468

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

%

PNG people

PNG Landscapes

PNG Forests

History of commercial forest exploitationPre-1980

– Small-scale harvesting by Australian companies1980-1990

– Increased harvesting by Japanese, Malaysian companies– Barnett inquiry

1990 onwards– Ongoing exploitation– Strengthening of PNG-FA – role of National Forest Board – Code of Logging Practice– Variety of integrated conservation and development projects

PNG log production and consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Cub

ic m

etre

sProductionExportsDomestic consumption

Log exports

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Malaysia

Indonesia

Gabon

PNG

Myanmar

Others

volume ('000 m3)

200220012000

Log export destinations

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

China

Japa

nKore

a, Rep

. of

Taiwan

, P.O

.C*

Philipp

ines

Malays

iaHon

g Kon

g, S.A.R

.Cub

ic m

etre

s (ro

undw

ood

equi

vale

nt)

Current situation

Asian economic downturnDecline in demand and price of logsEmergence of Chinese marketMoratorium on new timber concessionsOngoing international pressure to reform timber industryPressure on government to release new concessions for harvesting

Planning methods for sustainable wood production in PNG

Funded by ACIARTranslating Australian experienceLinks Australian scientists with PNG2 years– Oct 2001 – Dec 2003

Partners

Goal

To improve operational forest management and planning capacity in PNG Forest Authority

Activities

Review current inventory methods and area systemsDevelop new inventory systemsReview and adapt forest growth models for use within planning systemsAssess impacts of alternative forest harvesting options on growing stock Develop and test forest planning and management systemsTraining and technology transfer

Why?

Rapid timber resource depletion due to uncertainty about: Inventory estimatesArea available for harvestFuture timber yieldsPlanning for protection of community and environmental values

Why plan?

Fundamental to sustainable forest managementDocument future forest management intentionsConsider and develop responses to changing forest management circumstances

Other imperatives

Government requirementsMarket pressureInvestor demands

SFM requirements

Policy goals and legal frameworkManagement plan that aims to produce the right mix of benefitsEffective implementation and controlMonitoring Resource protection

Current planning and inventory requirements in PNG

Company10%PCMPOperational plan (set-up)

Company1%Forestry Act and PCMP

Annual logging plan

Company1%Forestry Act5 year working plan

Company1%Forestry ActFMA project statement

PNGFA1%Forestry ActProvincial plan

PNGFA1%Forestry ActNational Forest Plan

ResponsibilityInventory Standard

Inventory/planning

requirement

Planning level

Components of forest timber harvest planning

Forest area statement (forest type, age class)

Inventory of timber and other

values

Integrated Analysis System

Model to project forest growth

What is sustainable harvest?

Growth Growth

Forest Stock

Forest Stock

Harvest

General pattern of production in unmanaged native forestTi

mbe

r sup

ply

per y

ear

Time

PNG Planning System Components:Area

Forest inventory and management system

1. Vegetation Type 2. Land use & Logged over 3. Topographic information 4. Constraints (limitations to logging) 5. Proposed & current concession areas

Problems with area assessment

Over estimates of the forest area Conservation issues not adequately considered Village/cultural requirements not adequately considered

landowner disagreementimpact of Code of Logging Practice constraints not adequately consideredAccessibility not adequately determinedroading access not known for strategic plan –areas may be uneconomic to road due to low volumes and/or highroading costs

Inventory: sample intensity by Province

Province NameSum of Sample Area Sum of Total Area

Average of Sample Intensity

Central 44 145,941 0.16%East New Britain 677 318,425 0.22%East Sepik 739 616,154 0.21%Eastern Highlands 151 25,700 0.62%Gulf 846 496,065 0.26%Madang 1,104 256,667 0.59%Milne Bay 774 202,603 0.50%Morobe 176 55,026 0.46%New Ireland 461 539,303 0.11%North Solomons 101 0Northern 310 363,899 0.23%Simbu 131 39,000 0.33%Southern Highlands 108 15,130 3.03%West New Britain 572 200,736 0.30%West Sepik 1,790 856,164 0.22%Western 1,570 1,177,410 0.40%Western Highlands 415 94,109 7.28%PNG total 9,969 5,402,332 0.53%

Inventory

Volu

me

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170

1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2 3 4 5 6 9

Province

Precise

Imprecise

Unbiased Biased

Precise

Imprecise

Unbiased Biased

Problems with inventory

Inventory design is inadequate / biased Inventory out of date / not current: timber quality degraded through fire, disease or other disturbance Different log sale standards assessed to those applied during harvesting Inadequate assessment/allowance for log defect Different species utilisation

Growth modelling

What does a growth model do?... uses existing data… from a few places at a few points in time… to make inferences about forest growth… in different places, and at different times

Distribution of permanent sample plots

West Sepik

Wimare

TuramaWestern

Wawoi Guawi

Daru

Vanimo

Serra

Pual

Southern Highlands

East Sepik Lower Sepik

Vailala

Gulf

Wewak

Mt. Hagen

Ari

Central Kerema

Port Moresby

Iva Inika

Lae

Watut

Madang Madang

Morobe

Sogeram

ManusWest Coast

Oomsis/Mare/Yalu

Yema Gaepa

Oro

Orman Lako

Kui Buso

Central Arawe

Umboi

West New Britain

Anu Alimbit

Kapuluk

Kapiura

Popondetta

Embi Hanau

Gara Modewa

Mosa Leim

Umbukul

Milne Bay

Kavieng Kaut

East New Britain

Bougainville

New Ireland

Pasis Manua

Waterfall Bay

Inland Pomio

Gar Mokolkol

Dry Wara Rabaul

Cape Orford

Central N.I.

Lark

Alotau

Enga

Hawain

Kimbe

Krisa

Mt Giluwe

Mussau

Pulie Anu

Sagarai Gadaisu

Honoda A tHuvivi Monge

Busiga

Malamu

Wasap

Morere

Maubula

Figure 6 : Comparison of simulation runs

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Year

Bole

vol

ume

(m3/

ha)

> 50 cm

> 60 cm

> 60 cm low impact

ITTO plots at Wasap, Madang Province, March1995

Figure 5 : Yields per cutting cycle

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

35 70 105Year of harvest

Volu

mes

ext

ract

ed (m

3/ha

)

Pioneer

Small trees

Potential

Secondary

Primary

ITTO plots at Wasap, Madang Province, March1995

Integration

Data sources

Training

Outputs

Reports/Reviews– Inventory, area and planning systems– Review of inventory data– Approaches to net harvestable area assessment– Incorporating community issues in forest planning– Alternative inventory methods for strategic forest planning

Remeasurement of 20 permanent sample plotsRevision of data entry systemAnalysis of alternative harvesting regimes using the PINFORM model

Recommendations

One percent sample requirement: not justifiedClear linkage between inventory and industry planning or operational control Information feedback from operational inventories and harvested volumes to strategic planningRegular (5 year) review of allowable cutsLinkage between forest inventory and log utilisation standards Post harvest inventory Adequate resourcing of inventory and development of planning skills in all sectors of the forest industry

Future activities