NCVO Foresight: taking the fear out of change
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Transcript of NCVO Foresight: taking the fear out of change
Foresight is…understanding your changing world
& so making better decisions
Spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)
Foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating
Foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there
it helps avoid surprises
Foresight helps you: stay innovative
stay relevant
shape your future, not just react
so it goes before planning…
decide what you’re about
evaluate, learn…
do it !
foresight
spot options, make choices
plan
...not after planning !
It pays to make time for foresight[or you’ll always be fire-fighting]
some healthy scepticism
‘there’s no time for this !’
‘either we know what’s coming, or we can’t !’
we should have seen it coming
but so should they
‘It’s not the strongest or most intelligent that survives,it’s the most adaptable’
So, how do you do foresight ?
It’s a three-part process
What trends or forces (drivers)may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ?(for good or ill)
So what are the implications ?
Now what to do about it ?
We make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk
Spotting drivers (the What)
eg: multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing
(+ stubborn, rising social need)
PlanDevelop
scenarios
Develop tactics and
policies Review
HIGH IMPACT
LOWER IMPACT
UN
CER
TA
INC
ER
TA
IN
Ranking drivers
Working out driver implications (the So What)
External implications Internal implications
Users & theirneeds
Funders & their priorities
Relationships & influence
Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees
The organisation’s work (services & activities)
Governance including accountability &evaluation
Systems, Skills,Technology(communications, administration, management etc)
How to respond (the Now What)
Improvements
Innovations
Improvisations
We can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself
www.3s4.org.uk
twitter: @NCVOForesight
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/resources
