NCSX Project Review May 9, 2006 Cost and Schedule Overview Ron Strykowsky

Strykowsky 1 Project Review May 9, 2006

NCSX Project Review

May 9, 2006

Cost and Schedule Overview

Ron Strykowsky


Project performing within budget and schedule

• Performance to date – Schedule

• Critical path tasks being met

• SPI = 0.96– VVSA (baselined delivery March 06; forecast August 06) 7.5 mo off critical

path

– TF Coil Fabrication- Revised plans. Contract recently awarded 6.5 mo off critical path

– Modular Coil Hardware design (drawings being prioritized and released for procurement)

– Cost• CPI= 0.96

– Modular coil winding operations (unplanned rework, fac. Mods, training, startup)

– Vac Vsl H/W design and fabrication (Heater tape, cooling tubes, supports, response to VVSA NCR’s)

– WBS 82 Systems engineering (integrated modeling and stress analysis, dimensional control)

– Change Control• ECP-43 process this year (MCWF Contract mod)

Issues and risks being mitigated via monthly cost and schedule reviews with job managers and DOE


• Current Financial Status (through 3/31/06)

• Plan forward on sound basis– Project ETC exercise identified areas of cost growth and

opportunities for reduction of non-CD-4 requirements– Contingency updated to reflect future risk– Forecast consistent with BA funding guidance– Realistic plans in place to complete project– First plasma July 2009 with 6 months float (5 mo. last review)

– Contingency balance at 21.6% (21.6% last review)

BCWS BCWP ACWP Budget

$48.2 $46.4 $48.0 $83.7$8.7 contingency 23.4%

55% 52% $92.4 TEC on remaining scopecomplete spent

FY06Budget (BA plus c/o)= $19.95

EAC (FY06)= $19.80 +/-

Financial status and plan forward


Proposed Changes to Performance Measurement Baseline

Current Baseline (ECP-43)

Unrecoverable Cost Variances

ETC Updates & Design Changes

Total Proposed Change

New PMB (ECP-44)

12 - Vacuum Vessel Systems 9,439 209 106 315 9,754 13 - Conventional Coils 4,831 156 273 429 5,260 14 - Modular Coils 32,247 612 613 1,224 33,471 15 - Structures 1,386 2 (63) (61) 1,325 16 - Coil Services 1,135 3 - 3 1,138 17 - Cryostat and Base Support Struct 1,533 45 - 45 1,578 18 - Field Period Assembly 5,281 69 657 726 6,007 19 - Stellarator Core Mgt & Integr 2,767 3 - 3 2,770

1 Stellarator Core Systems 58,619 1,099 1,586 2,685 61,304 2 Heating, Fueling & Vac Sys 791 (0) (306) (306) 485 3 Diagnostics 1,149 65 (219) (154) 995 4 Electrical Power Sys 3,305 137 (338) (201) 3,104 5 Central I&C Sys 1,874 (0) (1,031) (1,032) 842 6 Facility Sys 679 (0) (78) (78) 601 7 Test Cell Prep & MachAssy 4,555 36 (155) (118) 4,437 8 Project Oversight & Support 12,634 239 (210) 29 12,663

subtotal 83,606 1,575 (751) 824 84,430 Contingency 8,720 (1,575) 751 (824) 7,897

TEC = 92,326 - - - 92,326

DCMA 75 75 92,401 92,401

ETC 36,496 Contingency balance 7,897

21.64%


Budget Reconciliation-(Variances)

Unrecoverable Cost VariancesWBS 12 Vac Vsl hardware design $154 Design of heater tape, cooling tubes and associated hardware

WBS 12 VVSA Contract oversight $57 Support of MTM leak testing of the VVSA, and NCR reconciliation

WBS 13 TF Fab Facility $64 TF Coil Hardware fabrication

WBS 13 TF coil -PPPL oversight/title III $101 TF outsourcing efforts (documentation, travel, evaluation)

WBS 14 Cryogenic test facility (job 1414) $130 Facility design , testing and modifications in support of the upcoming mod. coil cold test

WBS 14 MC winding (job 1451 & 1459) $492 Unanticipated work, facility mods, initial learning curve/efficiencies.

WBS 14 Modular Coil Design $33

WBS 17 WBS 17 cryostat and base support $47 Alternate configurations studied.

WBS 18 WBS 18 Field period assy fuxtures & prep $79 Purchase of a third Romer arm and computer

WBS 3 Magnetic Diagmnostics $70 Engineering and fabrication of vacuum vessel saddle loops.

WBS 4 Electrical Power Systems $141 Revisions to the C-site power systems and cabling designWBS 7 Test Cell Preparations $37 NCSX test cell electrical power upgrades WBS 81 Project management office $83 Project management team (PPPL & ORNL) and overhead

allocationsWBS 82 Proj Engr (Reierson,Dudek, Simmons) $44 RLM oversightWBS 82 Systems Analysis (Brooks) $142 Integrated stellarator modeling and analysis (ie mod coil coil-to-coil

and machine support)other cost variances $8rate variance -$107

$1,575


Budget Reconciliation-(Stellarator Core)

ETC UpdatesWBS 12 Vac Vsl hardware design and hardware $106 Completion of thermal insulation, heater tape and assembly

drawings. Port Insulation increase.WBS 13 TF coil- fabrication $348 Increase in fabrication cost ($1,473 contract award)WBS 13 TF coil -PPPL oversight/title III $165 Increase to oversee outsourcing of fabrication (average of 1

trip/week). Risk mitigation due to vendor history.WBS 13 PF coil procurement & design -$95 Estimate reduced in recognition of TF cost.

WBS 13,15 Base ,& coil support struct -$63 combine base ,& coil support struct into one procurementWBS 13 Central solenoid support structure fabrication -$144 Simpler design to be fabricated by PPPL

WBS 14 Cryogenic test facility (job 1414) $66 Completion of test facility and testing of modular coilWBS 14 MC winding (job 1451 & 1459) $449 Estimate growth (including overtime and second shift differential)

into mid-FY07.WBS 14 Completion of Type A & B modular coil design -$97 Elimination of redundant assembly and hardware drawings.

WBS 14 Mod Coil interface design $125 Additional analysis of joint and resultant design modificationsWBS 14 Mod Coil interface hardware $70 Shims, bolts, washers and bladder hardware.WBS 18 FP assy stage 1 $163 Additional assembly steps and includes hands-on senior field

supervisor. WBS 18 FP assy tooling & fixtures $112 Fixtures re-estimate plus add'l stage 5 fixture.WBS 18 FP assy tooling & fixtures -engr& design

increase$140 Additional engr and designer support to design field period assy

fixtures.WBS 18 Metrology H/W maint and support (job 1804) $74 Metrology hardware & software maintenance, replacement parts,

calibrationWBS 18 Metrology engr supervision (raftopolous)

stage 1 FP assy$168 Increase to full time metrology engr to support completion of mod

coil fabr plus field period assembly tasks thru FY07.WBS 82 Proj Engr (Reierson,Dudek, Simmons) $78 Increased RLM oversight and Project engineeringWBS 82 Design Integration (brown, Designer) $59 Increase designer and engineer time for global design interface.WBS 82 Systems Analysis (Brooks) $73 Global machine modeling and analysisWBS 82 Dimensional Control (Stratton, Raftopolous) $66 Dimensional control supervision.

$1,862


Budget Reconciliation-(Ancillary Systems)

ETC Updates (continued)

WBS 2 Fueling and Vacuum Pumping -$306 Simplified systems design using existing pumping system (tested on VVSA).

WBS 3 Magnetic Diagnostic design and fabrication -$7 Anticipated FY06 rate variance WBS 3 E-beam mapping diagnostic hardware -$176 Use of collaration for e-beam mappingWBS 3 Edge & diverter diagnostics -$36 Share camera from NSTXWBS 4 Controls and protection -$340 eliminate DC shunts and simplify overload protectionWBS 4 AC power -$68 Minimal ex-test cell AC power and groundingWBS 4 DC power $70 Power loop design and C-site rectifier maintenance\WBS 51 TCP/IP network -$106 Local TCP/IP network infrastructureWBS 52 Central Facilities I&C -$383 Local ControlWBS 53 Diagnostic Data Acquisition & computing -$177 The NSTX infrastructure will be used where possible.WBS 54 Facility timing & synchronization -$103 Use timing device designs in use on NSTXWBS 55 Real time plasma control -$86 PC based "LabVIEW" will produce open-loop power supply

commands.WBS 56 Central Safety & Interlokcs -$200 Use of locks and physical barriersWBS 58 Central I&C Integr and oversight $24 OversightWBS 61 Water systems -$78 Once through potable water system for vacuum pumps onlyWBS 75 Machine assy preparations -$20 Eliminate TC floor resurface and completion of control rm floorsWBS 75 Machine assembly -$135 2 shift ops on select tasks (reduced support crewsWBS 81 Project management office -$89 Anticipated FY06 rate variance and allocationsWBS 85 wbs 85 PTP & ISTP startup -$397 Reduced operational and startup procdures plus allocation of

startup staff-$2,613

* includes anticipated rates variances -$751


Risk & Opportunities

• Above risks are covered by a line item contingency assessment

•Project engineering, configuration control, system analysis and dimensional control coordination have the potential for additional resources to support the final assembly phase.

Risk Opportunity

Modular Coil Winding Operations $509 Re-evaluate in 6 months.

MCWF Delivery Incentives $410 Balance of DOE exposure should EIO deliver ahead of the project schedule.

Fabricate PF coils at ASIPP ($375)

Simpler Cryostat Design ($350)

Aggressive machine assembly schedule using 2 shifts. Saves two months and LOE cost

($400)

$919 ($1,125)


Contingency Supported by Updated Risk Assessment

Contingency Analysis

VVSA 80% complete

MCWF 63% complete

Proposed PMB ETC Contingency %12 - Vacuum Vessel Systems (wo/VVSA) 4,619 628 104 16%VVSA Contract 5,135 1,059 53 5%13 - Conventional Coils 3,658 1,554 355 23%TF Contract 1,601 1,601 160 10%14 - Modular Coils (wo/MCWF) 24,392 6,830 1,478 22%MCWF Contract 9,079 3,316 410 12%15 - Structures 1,325 1,248 398 32%16 - Coil Services 1,138 1,132 281 25%17 - Cryostat and Base Support Struct 1,578 1,164 345 30%18 - Field Period Assembly 6,007 4,233 1,986 47%19 - Stellarator Core Mgt & Integr 2,770 1,025 102 10%

1 Stellarator Core Systems 61,303 23,790 5,670 23.8%2 Heating, Fueling & Vac Sys 485 137 19 14%3 Diagnostics 995 293 88 30%4 Electrical Power Sys 3,104 2,453 477 19%5 Central I&C Sys 842 809 78 10%6 Facility Sys 601 576 115 20%7 Test Cell Prep & MachAssy 4,437 3,499 1,008 29%8 Project Oversight & Support 12,663 4,939 440 9%

subtotal 84,430 36,496 7,897 21.6%Contingency 7,897

TEC = 92,326 DCMA 75

92,401

VVSA,MCWF,&TF Contract 15,838 5,998 625 10.4%Balance of Project 68,592 30,497 7,272 23.8%


Plan supports BA guidance

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 Total BA 7.9$ 15.9$ 17.5$ 17.0$ 15.9$ 15.9$ 2.3$ 92.4$ EAC 5.9$ 14.2$ 18.2$ 19.7$ 15.1$ 9.8$ 1.6$ 84.6$ Contingency 1.0$ 6.1$ 0.7$ 7.8$ BO (EAC + Cont) 5.9$ 14.2$ 18.2$ 19.7$ 16.1$ 15.9$ 2.3$ 92.4$

Cost Profile

$-$5.0

$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0$30.0$35.0$40.0$45.0$50.0$55.0$60.0$65.0$70.0$75.0$80.0$85.0$90.0$95.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

$M

$23.8

$74.2

$58.3

$41.3

$92.4$90.1

$5.9

$73.2

$58.1

$38.3

$20.2

$84.6$83.0

Project being managed to maximize accomplishments this FY. Non-critical work scope available for deferral into FY07 if needed.


NCSX Milestone Status

Baseline Forecast ActualLevel I CD-1 May-2003 May-2003

CD-2 Feb-2004 Feb-2004CD-3 Sep-2004 Sep-2004CD-4 Jul-2009 Jan-2009

Level II Vacuum Vessel & Modular Coil Prel Dsn Rvw Oct-2003 Oct-2003Performance Baseline Review Nov-2003 Nov-2003Conduct VVSA FDR Jul-2004 May-2004Mod Coil Winding Form Final Design Review Jul-2004 May-2004Award MC Conductor Contract Dec-2004 Oct-2004Award VV Production Vendor Oct-2004 Sep-2004Award MCWF Mfg Contract Oct-2004 Sep-2004First MCWF Delivered Jul-2005 Sep-2005Begin TF Coil fabrication activities Sep-2005 Jun-2005

Complete First Mod Coil Fabrication Mar-2006 Mar-2006Vacuum Vessel Sectors Delivered Sep-2006 Aug-2006Last MCWF Delivered Sep-2007 Aug-2007PF Coils Awarded Mar-2008 Oct-2007Begin Assembly of First Field Period Jul-2007 Mar-2007All TF Coils Delivered Aug-2008 Oct-2007Last Field Period Assembled Nov-2008 May-2008Begin Vac Vsl Pumpdown Feb-2009 Aug-2008Begin Cryostat Installation Apr-2009 Sep-2008Operational Readiness Jun-2009 Nov-2008Begin Start-up Testing Jun-2009 Dec-2008


Sound Plan to Complete Project on Schedule

•2 shifts on 2 lines all modular coils and selected assembly operations•6 months schedule float•Schedule contingency remaining;

•2 shift Field period assembly•2 shift Final Machine assembly•Sat & Sundays


MCWF Deliveries Support Project Schedule

• Project planning assumes a more conservative schedule than contract schedule. (Deliveries every 5 weeks vs. every 4 weeks.)

New Contract Schedule New Project Schedule I Recent Deliveries

Note:1 Field Period (F.P.) Set = 2 A’s, 2 B’s, and 2 C’s.

Complete Field Period Sets#1 Nov. 2006#2 Feb. 2007#3 Aug. 2007

New Contract In Effect


Critical Components have adequate schedule margin

Critical Path (6 mos.)

VVSA Free Float (7.5mo.)

TF Coil Free Float (6.5 mos.)

•Critical path through modular coils•VVSA and TF Coil well off critical path

Refer to critical path plot for more detail


Staffing needs being met

Daily task and personnel assignments for modular coil winding operations

• Manpower plans in place for beginning of field period assy•Future technician levels equal to or less than previous estimates as a result of replanning


Conclusion

• The project has met schedule and cost objectives to date.

• The project has sound plan going forward– ETC’s, unrecoverable cost variances and

risks recognized. – Current schedule forecast (incl vendor

updates and schedule ETC’s) is realistic and achievable

– Adequate schedule and budget contingency – Manpower needs being met.

NCSX Project Review May 9, 2006 Cost and Schedule Overview Ron Strykowsky

Documents

Transcript of NCSX Project Review May 9, 2006 Cost and Schedule Overview Ron Strykowsky