An UpdateCrawford Jencks-------------------

July 2011 RAC Meeting

NCHRP 20-83Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry

Seven — $1.0 Million Projects

1. Freight and the economyMIT/Christopher Caplice

2. Technologies and system performanceRAND Corporation/Steven Popper

3. Preservation, maintenance, and renewalTexas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson

4. Energy supplies and alternative fuelsRAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson

5. Climate changePB Americas/Michael Meyer

6. Socio-demographics and travel demandNuStats/Johanna Zmud

7. Sustainability systems and organizing principlesBooz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann

Project 20-83 Long-Term Strategic Issues

WHY? The transportation industry faces challenges

today, AND it will face new and emerging challenges decades from now that may reshape transportation priorities and needs.

DOTs must be prepared to anticipate the implications of the future.

Targeted research is needed to focus on these long-term strategic issues—lessen the “surprise factor.”

Overall Concept20-83 Series

Avoid being constrained by the presentProject outward 30-50 yearsCreate possible, representative future “what-if”

scenariosDetermine factors influencing scenariosProvide guidance on monitoring those factors

and assessing the results: Is change occurring?Offer strategies to state DOTs to adapt,

mitigate, or revise change —Be proactive rather than reactive—

Program Goal No. 1: Anticipate the future issues so that we are better prepared to meet new and emerging challenges.

Program Goal No. 2: Explore visions of what the future should look like, so that we can help shape the future through our decision making..

Economic Changes Driving Future Freight TransportationMassachusetts Institute of

Technology/Christopher Caplice

NCHRP 20-83 (01)

Provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. To be completed: December 2011

Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System

PerformanceRAND Corporation/Steven Popper

NCHRP 20-83 (02)

Develop a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve long-term system performance objectives. 

To b e completed: June 2012

Products

Practical framework for transportation professionals to think more effectively about technology.

Tools to assist in technology assessment.Guidelines for agency use of the

assessment results.Case study of bridge inspection

technologies.

Long –Range Strategic Issues Affecting Preservation, Maintenance,

and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure

Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson

NCHRP 20-83 (03)

Guidance for transportation stakeholders on emerging materials, tools, approaches, and technologies that could be used to deal with long-range (30 to 50 years) highway infrastructure maintenance, preservation, and renewal needs and ensure satisfactory system condition and performance.To be completed: June 2013

Phase I Key Results • Identified 67 scenario drivers for 13 technical areas• Developed 78 scenarios for 13 technical areas (six per area

based on negative, mid-range, and positive worlds) • Aggregated 67 into 13 critical drivers

– Climate Change– Economic Growth– Priority on Environmental Quality– Funding– Government Role– Mobility– Population Density– Public Commitment to Sustainability– Resources/Energy – Road Freight– Security– Technology/Innovation– Transportation Choices/Complexity

Phase I Results• Critical Scenario Driver Impact – Examples

– Economic Growth• Expected Future: Some positive change with slow

growth rate• Alternative Future: Constant and flat or some negative

change and a declining growth rate– Public Commitment to Sustainability

• Expected Future: More commitment with slow rate of commitment

• Alternative Future: Less commitment with even slower rate of commitment

• Final Scenarios – Multi-driver based and not Linear (under development)

Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies and Alternative

Sources on TransportationRAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson

NCHRP 20-83 (04)

1) Determine how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of DOTs will likely be affected by future changes in long-term energy supply and demand

2) Identify strategies and actions that can be used by the DOTs to plan and prepare for these effects. 

To be completed: June 2012

Petroleum Remains Dominant

Biofuels Grow in Use, Replacing

Some Petroleum Consumption

Driving Becomes Less Expensive

Driving Costs Remain Moderate

Driving Becomes More Expensive

Energy and Vehicle Technology Mix Travel Costs

Electric Vehicles Become the

Dominant Form of Passenger Car

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Become

the Dominant Form of Passenger Car

Diverse Mix of Fuels and Vehicle

Technologies Are Adopted

E1

E1 = Petroleum, Low CostE2 = Petroleum, High CostE3 = Biofuels, Moderate CostE4 = Natural Gas, Moderate CostE5 = Electric, Low CostE6 = Hydrogen, Moderate CostE7 = Mixed Fuels, High Cost

Composite Scenarios

E2

E3

E4

E5

E6

Natural Gas Emerges as a

Significant Competitor

E7

Energy Use

Scenarios

Percentage of Passenger Vehicle Miles Powered By: Per-Mile

Travel Costs

(2011 $)Petroleu

mBiofue

lNatural Gas

Electricity

Hydrogen

Current Status

~ 94% ~ 6%Neglig

ibleNeglig

ibleNone

8 to 17 cents

E1: Petroleum, Low Cost

~ 90% ~ 10%Neglig

ibleNeglig

ibleNeglig

ible4 to 8 cents

E2: Petroleum, High Cost

~ 90% ~ 10%Negligib

leNegligib

leNegligib

le17 to 68 cents

E3: Biofuels, Moderate Cost

~ 70% ~ 30%Negligib

leNegligib

leNegligib

le8 to 17 cents

E4: Natural Gas, Moderate Cost

~ 45% ~ 5% ~ 50%Negligib

leNegligib

le8 to 17 cents

E5: Electric, Low Cost

~ 20% ~ 5%Negligib

le~ 75%

Negligible

4 to 8 cents

E6: Hydrogen, Moderate Cost

~ 20% ~ 5%Negligib

leNegligib

le~ 75% 8 to 17 cents

E7: Mixed Fuels, High Cost

~ 20% ~ 5% ~ 25% ~ 25% ~ 25%17 to 68

cents

Illustrative Details of Composite Energy Use

Scenarios

Large Increase in Goods Movement, Large Increase in

Trucking Mode Share

Moderate Increase in Goods Movement,

Moderate Increase in Trucking Mode Share

Growth in Passenger Travel

Growth in Goods Movement

Rapid Growth Commensurate with

Past Trends

Moderate Growth in Passenger Travel,

Moderate Increase in Transit Share

Little Growth in Passenger Travel,

Significant Increase in Transit Share

T1 = High Passenger and Truck GrowthT2 = Moderate Passenger and Truck GrowthT3 = Low Passenger and Truck Growth

Composite Scenarios

T3Small Increase in

Goods Movement, No Increase in Trucking

Mode Share

T2

T1

Scenario Passenger VMT Transit Mode Share

Truck VMT Truck Mode Share

Annual Growth

Total (40

Yrs.)

Annual Growth

Total(40

Yrs.)Historical / Current 2.6% -- <2% 3.5% -- 29%T1. High Passenger and Truck Growth

2.6% 172% 2% 2.3% 64% 35%

T2. Moderate Passenger and Truck Growth

1.6% 86% 5% 1.9% 47% 32%

T3. Low Passenger and Truck Growth

0.5% 21% 10% 1.5% 35% 29%

Illustrative Details of Composite Travel Scenarios

Federal

Policy

Scenarios

Climate & Energy Policies Transportation Funding Policies

Regulatory

MandatesSubsidies

Pricing

Policies

Federal

Funding

Federal Fuel

Taxes

MBUF or

Expanded

Tolling

Variable

Pricing

Policies

Current

Status

CAFE

Standards,

Renewable

Fuel

Standards

Moderate

R&D

support,

vehicle and

fuel

subsidies

None

Significant

but

diminishing

Losing real

value per

mile of

travel

Limited

Limited

application

of

congestion

tolls

P1.

Conservativ

e Policy

Scenario

Modest

increases to

CAFE and

RFS

standards

Moderate

R&D

support,

more limited

vehicle and

fuel

subsidies

None

Federal

program

continues to

diminish

Not

increased

significantly

Limited

Limited

application

of

congestion

tolls

P2.

Moderate

Policy

Scenario

Modest

increases to

CAFE and

RFS

standards

Moderate

R&D

support,

more limited

vehicle and

fuel

subsidies

None

Federal

program

expands

moderately

Increased in

the near

term (e.g.,

50 cents per

gallon)

Introduced

in the 2020

timeframe

Moderate

application

of

congestion

tolls

P3.

Aggressive

Policy

Scenario

Aggressive

increases to

CAFE,

modest

increase to

RFS

Greater

funding for

R&D,

vehicle, and

fuel

subsidies

Carbon tax

or cap and

trade along

with vehicle

feebate

programs

Federal

program

expands

considerably

Significantly

increased in

the near

term (e.g.,

75 cents per

gallon)

Introduced

in the 2020

timeframe

Extensive

use of

congestion

tolls,

weight-

distance

truck tolls,

fees based

on emissions

Illustrative Details of Federal Policy Composite ScenariosModerate Energy /

Climate Policies

Aggressive Energy / Climate Policies

Declining Federal Revenue and

Investment Capacity

Renewed Federal Commitment to Transportation Investments

Shift to Efficiency-Oriented Funding

Mechanisms

Energy / Climate Policy Building Blocks

Transportation Funding Policy Building Blocks

P1 = Conservative Federal PoliciesP2 = Moderate Federal PoliciesP3 = Aggressive Federal Policies

Composite Scenarios

P3

P2

P1

Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation

ApproachesPB Americas/Michael Meyer

NCHRP 20-83 (05)

1) Synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the probable range of impacts of climate change for the period 2030-2050

2) Recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and strategies that state departments of transportation (DOTs) can use during system planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts and lessen their effects.

To be completed: March 2012

Preliminary U.S. Climate Changes: 2010-2050Average Annual Temperature: Lower 48, +4°F;Upper Midwest, +5-6°F; Coastal Regions, +2-3°F;Alaska, +6-7°F

U.S. Winter Temperatures: Less than average annual change but magnitude uncertain.

U.S. Summer Temperatures: Greater than average annual change but magnitude uncertain.

Annual Precipitation: Wetter in the eastern U.S.; drier in the west, south-central, deep south, and Florida; much wetter in Alaska.

Sea Level Rise (intermediate model): Average, 6.4±3.5 inches; maximum, 16.8 inches (LA); minimum, -5.6 inches (AK).

Extreme Events: Decrease of 1-3 weeks of days below freezing; increase in north of days with >0.4 inches of rainfall.ALL ESTIMATES HAVE HIGH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY!

Effects of Socio-Demographics on Travel Demand

NuStats/Johanna Zmud

NCHRP 20-83 (06)

Determine how socio-demographic factors are likely to affect travel demand over the next 30 to 50 years and to identify strategies and actions that can be used by policymakers in state and local transportation and planning agencies to plan and prepare for alternative future scenarios.

To be completed: March 2012

1st interim report identified key drivers …

Individual-Level:• Population Size and Growth• Geo-Demographics of Population Size and Growth• Household Structure and Composition• Household-Based Economic Activity• Cultural and Social Diversity

Macro Level:• External Factors Intertwined with Socio-Demographics• External Factors that Impact Scenario Analysis

Phase 3 Technical Memo examined 4 broad scenarios:

• Momentum – gradual changes without radical shifts • Technology Triumphs – technology solves all problems • Global Chaos – collapse in globalism and sustainability • Gentle Footprint – widespread shift to low-impact living

Key assumptions and indicators will be identified for each scenario. Future tasks will model how DOTs can predict, influence, and adapt

to these scenarios.

Sustainable Transportation Systems and Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies

Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann

NCHRP 20-83 (07)

Provide a framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to (1) meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services and (2) meet society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis. 

To be completed: September 2012

Major Drivers…

Overview of the research…

December 2010 Workshop & Supplemental Scan of Scientific

and Technological Advances

NCHRP 20-83A

Workshop held Dec. 8-9, 2010SCORPrincipal InvestigatorsPanel Chairs

PIs presented research approaches and summarized early work efforts

Discussion of potential NCHRP 20-83 topicsNo new topics selected

Workshop report available at: http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=2934

Communication Plan and Presentation Materials

NCHRP 20-83B

SCOR anticipates a need for a communication plan to identify the most effective methods and venues for disseminating this information. The requested funding of $500,000 will enable the development and implementation of a communications plan for the entire series of projects. SCOR requested a detailed scope of work be presented for review at their Fall 2011 meeting.

Crawford JencksDeputy Director, Cooperative

Research ProgramsTransportation Research Board

cjencks@nas.edu202/334-3233

Thank you!

Thoughts about the Future

When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. John M. Richardson, Jr., American University

In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. Eric Hoffer, American writer 1902-1983

If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. General Eric Shinseki, retired Chief of Staff, U.S. Army