NBN: Rebooted, Cisco's Dr Robert Pepper
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Transcript of NBN: Rebooted, Cisco's Dr Robert Pepper
The NBN Rebooted: Broadband Network Trends & Solving the Multi-Technology Puzzle
Robert Pepper Vice President, Global Technology Policy
17 November 2014
IP Network Traffic Growth Trends
Growth Drivers: Video Dominates
Local Access Trends
Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose
3 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
50 51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IP Traffic in 2013
Projected in 2010 Actual
4 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.38 0.50 0.61 0.74 0.88
1.04
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Australia IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Australia IP Traffic will Increase 2.7X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
22% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
5 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018
Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic
2.7 2.5 2.5
3.0 2.7
2.3 2.6
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.4
2.9 3.2
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Glo
bal
APA
C
LATA
M
NA
WE
CEE
MEA
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
6 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (Australia) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
27% CAGR
22% CAGR
7 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 Metro is 1.7x Long-Haul
Long-Haul Metro Access
2018 Metro is 1.9x Long-Haul
Long-Haul Metro Access 230 PB/mo 384 PB/mo 384 PB/mo
534 PB/mo 1,041 PB/mo 1,041 PB/mo
Australia Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018
1 IP Network Traffic Growth Trends
Growth Drivers: Video Dominates
Local Access Trends 3
4 Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose
9 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Australia IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 81% of Australia’s IP Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.06%, 0.06%) File Sharing (10%, 4%) Web/Data (28%, 15%) IP VOD (7%, 12%) Internet Video (55%, 69%)
22% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
10 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K
1 8 28
63
119
202
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
Connected 4K TV Sets (M)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
11 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Higher Definition Content Impacts Australia IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 9% of Australia IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 9%) High Def (HD) Video (17%, 49.6%) Standard Def (SD) Video (83%, 41.6%)
29% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
12 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Devices Matter: Monthly Traffic per Device
= Tablet
Ultra High Definition TV
Laptop/PC
4.0 GB
= 22.9 GB*
22.7 GB
* Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
=
= Smartphone 1.0 GB
= M2M Module 78 MB
2013 2018
18.0 GB
26.3 GB*
39.2 GB
5.4 GB
514 MB
13 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)
Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)
PCs (12.2%,7.0%)
TV (10.0%,12.8%)
Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)
Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)
M2M (18.6%,35.2%)
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Billions of Devices
11% CAGR
Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections
14 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other Portable Devices (7.5%,5.3%)
Tablets (5.5%,6.7%)
PCs (21.8%,11.3%)
TV (11.7%,16.1%)
Non-Smartphones (8.0%,0.7%)
Smartphones (19.3%,14.5%)
M2M (26.3%,45.4%)
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Millions of Devices
12% CAGR
Australia Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Nearly Half of the Total Connections
15 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Australia IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 43% of Australia IP Traffic
Petabytes per Month
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.0%)
Other Portable Devices (0.4%,0.8%)
M2M (1.0%,5.7%)
Tablets (3.0%,10.5%)
Smartphones (3.7%,10.0%)
TV (9.3%,15.9%)
PCs (82.6%,57.1%)
22% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
1 IP Network Traffic Growth Trends
2 Growth Drivers: Video Dominates
Local Access Trends
4 Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose
17 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Australia IP Traffic by Local Access Technology 68% of IP Traffic Connects by Wireless in 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
32%
50%
11%
22% CAGR 2013–2018
7%
18 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Australia Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology 77% of Internet Traffic Connects by Wireless in 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (7% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
23%
56%
13%
22% CAGR 2013–2018
8%
19 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014
Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today
Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today
Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today
20 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
In Australia, Wi-Fi speeds will grow 2.4-fold reaching 22 Mbps by 2018, up from 9.1 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
1 IP Network Traffic Growth Trends
2 Growth Drivers: Video Dominates
Local Access Trends 3
Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose
22 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
32% CAGR 2013–2018
Global Cloud Traffic Growth Cloud Traffic Will Nearly Quadruple from 2013 to 2018
Zettabytes per Year
Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 2013–2018
1.6 2.3
3.1
4.0
5.1
6.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
23 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
By 2018, 53% of all residential Internet Users will use Personal Cloud Storage.
Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 2013–2018
24 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Concurrent Support
Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrent Support
Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrent Support
Network Requirements: Download Speed: -1900 kbps Upload Speed: -600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Network Requirements: Download Speed: –7,000 kbps Upload Speed: –2,600 kbps Latency: 159-100 ms
Network Requirements: Download Speed: -21,000 kbps
Upload Speed: -9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
+ +
• SD video conferencing • Personal content locker • HD video streaming • Electronic health records • ERP/CRM • VoLTE
• Virtual office • Connected medicine • HD video conferencing • Stream ultra HD video • High frequency stock trading • Connected car safety
applications
• Stream basic video/music • Text communications • VOIP • Web browsing • Web conferencing • Cloud based learning
management system
25 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Focus on Latency: Asynchronous vs Synchronous Storage
100 ms 5 ms
Personal Content Locker Standard Backup
Asynchronous Storage Latency
Disaster Recovery Systems Data and Transaction
Replication Synchronous Storage Latency
ASYNCHRONOUS SYNCHRONOUS
26 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
27 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Australia Ave download: 9.8mbps Ave upload: 2.2mbps Ave latency: 52ms
28 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Canada Ave download: 15.5mbps Ave upload: 3.9mbps Ave latency: 43ms
29 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
New Zealand Ave download: 15.6mbps Ave upload: 6.4mbps Ave latency: 41ms
30 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
US Ave download: 17.9mbps Ave upload: 5.8mbps Ave latency: 50ms
31 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
UK Ave download: 22.2mbps Ave upload: 5.4mbps Ave latency: 41ms
32 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Germany Ave download: 22.6mbps Ave upload: 4.2mbps Ave latency: 44ms
33 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Singapore Ave download: 42.1mbps Ave upload: 33.2mbps Ave latency: 44ms
34 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Japan Ave download: 41.9mbps Ave upload: 35.3mbps Ave latency: 32ms
35 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Korea Ave download: 44.5mbps Ave upload: 39.6mbps Ave latency: 30ms
36 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Australia Canada Germany
Hong Kong
Korea
Japan
New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Singapore
-‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-‐ 10 20 30 40 50
Average Uploa
d Speed (M
bps)
Average Download Speed (Mbps)
All Countries Comparators
Hong Kong Ave download: 51.5mbps Ave upload: 43.7mbps Ave latency: 30ms
37 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Key Takeaways and Implications • High speed IP data traffic growth continues • Average not good enough • Video increasingly dominates • Local access shifts to wireless--WiFi is essential • Networks will be fixed and wireless • Need more spectrum – licensed and licensed exempt • Consumers and business increasingly rely on the Cloud • Networks need to be managed--not all bits created equal • Networks need to be built for the future and be future proof
Thank you.