Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International...
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Transcript of Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International...
![Page 1: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
A Report of NIPCC[Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change]
Prof. S. Fred Singer University of Virginia/SEPP <[email protected]>
Keynote talk, March 3, 2008International Climate Conference
Marriott Marquis Hotel, Times Square, NYC
![Page 2: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Basic Issue: Is Global Warming Human-Caused or Natural?
• Human-Caused: CO2 is a greenhouse (GH) gas and is increasing• Natural Climate Variation:Climate has always been warming or cooling
• Q: So how can one tell the cause?
• A: Compare calculated pattern of warming with observed pattern. Do the ‘fingerprints’ match or differ?
![Page 3: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“The science is settled” – Al Gore
• But not in the way he imagined it: Global Warming is mostly of natural origin. The human contribution is not significant
• Therefore climate change is unstoppable• We look at the warming pattern calculated
from GH models and compare with the pattern measured by weather balloons
![Page 4: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change
![Page 5: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 5, Figure 7E
![Page 6: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
A more detailed view of the disparity: Douglass, Christy, Pearson, Singer - 2007
![Page 7: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NO significant anthropogenic warming seen in the data
• NIPCC vs. IPCC: • What NIPCC did was to ‘connect the dots’ --
using the available information from model results and observations
• The same information was available to the IPCC from published work, including also from the US Government’s CCSP Report [2006]
• But IPCC chose to ignore these facts, because they conflicted with the conclusion that GW is anthropogenic
![Page 8: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Two further questions
• Q: Why do climate models over-estimate the warming effects of greenhouse gases?
• A: The models ignore ‘negative feedbacks’ from clouds and likely also from water vapor.
• Q: Then what are the principal causes of climate variations (on decadal time scales)?
• A: Likely variability of solar activity (solar wind and magnetic fields affecting cosmic rays – and thereby cloudiness)
![Page 9: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Solar-Activity Changes are the Main Cause of Climate Change
• Stalagmites provide a convenient record:• The stalagmite record shows a remarkably
close correlation between C-14 and O-18 over a period of more than 3,000 years
• Carbon-14 is generated in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and is a proxy for solar activity
• Oxygen-18 is a proxy for temperature
![Page 10: Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University.](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e7d5503460f94b7ff2d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
[Neff et al 2001]
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What About Sea Level Rise?• Predictions of the IPCC – from 1990 to 2007 --
have decreased dramatically.• Their 2007 value is 18 - 59 cm by 2100.• James Hansen (and Al Gore) predict 600 cm!
• Our best value is 18 - 20 cm -- based on the absence of acceleration during the 20th century
• But since 18 cm/century rise has been ongoing for centuries, we expect no incremental rise in SL – no matter what the cause of warming.
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IPCC 1990
IPCC 1995
IPCC 2001
2007 Draft
IPCC 2007
Hansen (H)
Rahmst. (R)
Singer (S)
Max 367 124 77 43 59 600 140 20
Min 10 3 11 14 18 600 50 18
Sea Level Rise to 2100
S
R
H
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CO2 Mitigation is Not Needed
• Cap & Trade: pointless, political, expensive• Ethanol: ineffective and wasteful; subsidized• Wind, Solar: marginally useful, with subsidies• Carbon Capture: not needed and very costly.• Instead:• Generate Electric power from secure and low-
cost coal/nuclear: phase out natural gas and use as transportation fuel, feedstock, etc